整点气温缺测的插补方法研究及其初步应用
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摘要
长期连续完整的历史气温资料是震前气温异常判别研究的重要数据基础。本文考虑了参考站与缺测站之间的距离,建立改进的线性回归模型。利用该模型插补缺测和错误的气温整点值数据,在一定程度上解决了长期连续观测数据缺测的情况。通过对收集的唐山观测站气温整点值数据进行插补,并应用插补完整的数据分析研究了2012年5月28日唐山4.8级地震前兆异常。结果表明:(1)插补值与其前后观测值衔接吻合,插补后完整连续数据符合夏高冬低的年变规律;(2)插补误差在±0.5℃范围内的比例为60.2%,在±0.8℃范围内的比例为80.3%,其误差绝对值大于1.0℃的比例为9.6%,平均绝对误差为0.84℃,插补值与观测值的相关系数大部分在0.9以上;(3)从3月27日起出现增温异常,特别是震前2天增温幅度约8℃。
The analysis of the temperature anomaly before earthquakes is based on the continuously historical air temperature data. The improved linear regression model is established in this paper in consideration of the distance of reference sites and missing observation sites. This model is used to interpolate hourly temperature data of missing and incorrect observations, which can partially help to solve the problem of long-term continuous observations data missing. The observation data from 15 sites were interpolated with the improved linear regression method and the interpolated data were applied to the Tangshan MS 4.8 earthquake that occurred on May 28, 2012. Our results suggest that:(1)The interpolated data are consistent with its pre and post observation and the complete temperature data have the annual variation characteristic of higher in summer and lower in winter;(2)The probability of error in temperature range ±0.5℃ is about 60.2%, and the error in ±0.8℃ is about 80.3%. The absolute error over 1.0℃ is 9.6% and the mean absolute error is 0.84℃. The correlation coefficients between interpolated and observed data are generally greater than 0.9;(3)The complete interpolated temperature data of Tangshan site were applied to study the Tangshan earthquake, 2012. The results show that the temperature increasing anomaly was found on May 10, 2012, when the temperature increased 8℃ two days before the quake.
The analysis of the temperature anomaly before earthquakes is based on the continuously historical air temperature data. The improved linear regression model is established in this paper in consideration of the distance of reference sites and missing observation sites. This model is used to interpolate hourly temperature data of missing and incorrect observations, which can partially help to solve the problem of long-term continuous observations data missing. The observation data from 15 sites were interpolated with the improved linear regression method and the interpolated data were applied to the Tangshan MS 4.8 earthquake that occurred on May 28, 2012. Our results suggest that:(1)The interpolated data are consistent with its pre and post observation and the complete temperature data have the annual variation characteristic of higher in summer and lower in winter;(2)The probability of error in temperature range ±0.5℃ is about 60.2%, and the error in ±0.8℃ is about 80.3%. The absolute error over 1.0℃ is 9.6% and the mean absolute error is 0.84℃. The correlation coefficients between interpolated and observed data are generally greater than 0.9;(3)The complete interpolated temperature data of Tangshan site were applied to study the Tangshan earthquake, 2012. The results show that the temperature increasing anomaly was found on May 10, 2012, when the temperature increased 8℃ two days before the quake.
引文
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李贵福,解明恩,1996.本世纪云南强震(MS≥6.0)的气象特征研究.地震研究,19(2):154-161.
涂诗玉,陈正洪,2001.武汉和宜昌缺测气温资料的插补方法.湖北气象,(3):11-13.
王海军,涂诗玉,陈正洪,2008.日气温数据缺测的插补方法试验与误差分析.气象,34(7):83-91.
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王建国,刘春国,王伟等,2013.地震前兆数据库综合管理系统.大地测量与地球动力学,33(S1):114-116.
徐国钧,谭天明,兰红林等,1993.云南破坏性地震与气象要素的关系.地震研究,16(2):148-155.
姚会琴,李悦,高逊等,2012.NagVis等开源监控软件在天津地震前兆台网的应用研究.震灾防御技术,7(3):329-333.
余予,李俊,任芝花等,2012.标准序列法在日平均气温缺测数据插补中的应用.气象,38(9):1135-1139.
张铁宝,路茜,辛华等,2013.2010年玉树7.1级地震前后气温变化分析.四川地震,(4):7-11.
张秀芝,孙安健,1996a.利用车贝雪夫多项式进行资料缺测插补的研究.应用气象学报,7(3):344-352.
张秀芝,孙安健,1996b.气候资料缺测插补方法的对比研究.气象学报,54(5):625-632.
张永领,丁裕国,高全洲等,2006.一种基于SVD的迭代方法及其用于气候资料场的插补试验.大气科学,30(3):526-532.
De Gaetano A.T.,Eggleston K.L.,Knapp W.W.,1995.A method to estimate missing daily maximum and minimum temperature observations.Journal of Applied Meteorology,34(2):371-380.
Eischeid J.K.,Pasteris P.A.,Diaz H.F.,et al.,2000.Creating a serially complete,national daily time series of temperature and precipitation for the western United States.Journal of Applied Meteorology,39(9):1580-1591.
Huth R.,NemeóováI.,1995.Estimation of missing daily temperatures:can a weather categorization improve its accuracy?Journal of Climate,8(7):1901-1916.
李贵福,解明恩,1996.本世纪云南强震(MS≥6.0)的气象特征研究.地震研究,19(2):154-161.
涂诗玉,陈正洪,2001.武汉和宜昌缺测气温资料的插补方法.湖北气象,(3):11-13.
王海军,涂诗玉,陈正洪,2008.日气温数据缺测的插补方法试验与误差分析.气象,34(7):83-91.
王建国,姚会琴,高逊等,2010.天津市地震前兆台网的运行监控与维护管理.大地测量与地球动力学,30(S1):111-115.
王建国,刘春国,王伟等,2013.地震前兆数据库综合管理系统.大地测量与地球动力学,33(S1):114-116.
徐国钧,谭天明,兰红林等,1993.云南破坏性地震与气象要素的关系.地震研究,16(2):148-155.
姚会琴,李悦,高逊等,2012.NagVis等开源监控软件在天津地震前兆台网的应用研究.震灾防御技术,7(3):329-333.
余予,李俊,任芝花等,2012.标准序列法在日平均气温缺测数据插补中的应用.气象,38(9):1135-1139.
张铁宝,路茜,辛华等,2013.2010年玉树7.1级地震前后气温变化分析.四川地震,(4):7-11.
张秀芝,孙安健,1996a.利用车贝雪夫多项式进行资料缺测插补的研究.应用气象学报,7(3):344-352.
张秀芝,孙安健,1996b.气候资料缺测插补方法的对比研究.气象学报,54(5):625-632.
张永领,丁裕国,高全洲等,2006.一种基于SVD的迭代方法及其用于气候资料场的插补试验.大气科学,30(3):526-532.
De Gaetano A.T.,Eggleston K.L.,Knapp W.W.,1995.A method to estimate missing daily maximum and minimum temperature observations.Journal of Applied Meteorology,34(2):371-380.
Eischeid J.K.,Pasteris P.A.,Diaz H.F.,et al.,2000.Creating a serially complete,national daily time series of temperature and precipitation for the western United States.Journal of Applied Meteorology,39(9):1580-1591.
Huth R.,NemeóováI.,1995.Estimation of missing daily temperatures:can a weather categorization improve its accuracy?Journal of Climate,8(7):1901-1916.