改革开放40年来中国城市经济联系空间格局演化
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摘要
以全国297个地级及以上城市为研究对象,截取1984、1995、2006和2016年等4个时间节点,按照点(城市潜能)—线(经济联系轴线)—网络(经济联系网络)的分析框架,借助城市潜能模型、经济辐射场强模型、变异系数模型和线性加权平均方向模型等测算城市经济联系的强度、差异、形态、层级和方向,刻画改革开放40年来我国城市经济联系时空格局的演化历程:①我国城市潜能在"递进演化"的同时,其地域分异特征愈加明显且差距不断扩大,高潜能城市始终分布于"胡焕庸线"以东,城市潜能空间格局具有显著的"顽健性"。②城市经济联系主轴线的"跨省"特征日益凸显,且从1995年开始逐渐突破省域界线,呈现出以重点城市为中心的"簇状"延伸形态,并由此形成了不同等级城市的经济垂直关联体系。③我国城市间经济联系网络密度不断加大,复杂性逐渐增强,且经济联系日益突破距离限制,跨省经济联系规模和联系网络密集度日益增大;城市间经济联系网络在2006年开始由省域经济逐渐向城市群经济转变,2016年城市群经济特征愈加明显。④城市间经济联系方向具有明显的"向心性"特征,在空间上以直辖市或省会城市等重点城市为核心呈"汇聚"态势,呈现出明显的"中心—外围"空间格局。未来,应有序引导和调整城市间经济联系的层级、方向,优化完善城市经济联系网络与区域协调发展机制,构筑梯次良好、互通密切的城市经济联系空间格局。
Taking 297 cities at prefecture level or above in China as the research object, selecting 1984, 1995, 2006 and2016 as the four time nodes, and based on the points(urban potential), axis(economic link axis)and networks(economic links network)as the analytical framework, this article applies the urban potential model, economic radiation field strength model, Coefficient of variation model, linear weighted average direction model to measure the strength, difference, form,hierarchy and direction of the urban economic links, and portrays the spatio-temporal evolution process of urban economic links on the prefecture level or above since the reform and opening-up. It was found that during the 40-year reform and opening-up, China's urban potential presents "progressive evolution", and its regional differentiation features are rather obvious and the gap is widening. High-potential cities are always located in the east of Hu Line, and the spatial distribution pattern of urban potential has a characteristic of obvious "obstinacy". The "trans-province" feature of the main axis of economic links between cities has become increasingly prominent, and since 1995, it has gradually broken through provincial boundaries, presenting a "cluster" extension form centered on key cities, and thus forming an economic vertical correlation system among cities of different levels. The network of urban economic links in China is increasingly dense and complex, and the economic links are breaking through the distance limit increasingly. The scale of the trans-provincial economic links and the intensity of the economic links network are getting higher and higher. In2006, the spatial pattern of economic links network presented the characteristics of gradual transformation from provincial economy to urban agglomeration economy, and the urban agglomeration economic characteristics was more obvious in 2016. Economic links between cities have a clear "centripetal" nature. There is a tendency of "convergence" in space with the center of municipalities directly under the central government or provincial capitals, showing an obvious "central-peripheral" spatial pattern. In the future, we should guide and adjust the hierarchy and directions of economic links between cities in an orderly way, optimize and improve the network of urban economic links and the regional coordination mechanism, and build a well-organized and closely interconnected spatial pattern of urban economic links.
Taking 297 cities at prefecture level or above in China as the research object, selecting 1984, 1995, 2006 and2016 as the four time nodes, and based on the points(urban potential), axis(economic link axis)and networks(economic links network)as the analytical framework, this article applies the urban potential model, economic radiation field strength model, Coefficient of variation model, linear weighted average direction model to measure the strength, difference, form,hierarchy and direction of the urban economic links, and portrays the spatio-temporal evolution process of urban economic links on the prefecture level or above since the reform and opening-up. It was found that during the 40-year reform and opening-up, China's urban potential presents "progressive evolution", and its regional differentiation features are rather obvious and the gap is widening. High-potential cities are always located in the east of Hu Line, and the spatial distribution pattern of urban potential has a characteristic of obvious "obstinacy". The "trans-province" feature of the main axis of economic links between cities has become increasingly prominent, and since 1995, it has gradually broken through provincial boundaries, presenting a "cluster" extension form centered on key cities, and thus forming an economic vertical correlation system among cities of different levels. The network of urban economic links in China is increasingly dense and complex, and the economic links are breaking through the distance limit increasingly. The scale of the trans-provincial economic links and the intensity of the economic links network are getting higher and higher. In2006, the spatial pattern of economic links network presented the characteristics of gradual transformation from provincial economy to urban agglomeration economy, and the urban agglomeration economic characteristics was more obvious in 2016. Economic links between cities have a clear "centripetal" nature. There is a tendency of "convergence" in space with the center of municipalities directly under the central government or provincial capitals, showing an obvious "central-peripheral" spatial pattern. In the future, we should guide and adjust the hierarchy and directions of economic links between cities in an orderly way, optimize and improve the network of urban economic links and the regional coordination mechanism, and build a well-organized and closely interconnected spatial pattern of urban economic links.
引文
[1]孟德友,陆玉麒.基于引力模型的江苏区域经济联系强度与方向[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(5):697-704.
[2]王雪辉,谷国锋.基于市场潜能的城市经济增长空间格局及溢出效应[J].地理科学,2017,37(11):1 617-1 623.
[3]吴常艳,黄贤金,陈博文,等.长江经济带经济联系空间格局及其经济一体化趋势[J].经济地理,2017,37(7):71-78.
[4]张荣天.长三角城市群网络结构时空演变分析[J].经济地理,2017,37(2):46-52.
[5]赵宏波,马延吉.老工业基地城市可达性及经济联系格局研究——以吉林省为例[J].地理科学,2013,33(11):1 316-1 322.
[6]方超,盛旗锋,李少付.基于引力模型的皖北城市经济联系研究[J].地域研究与开发,2018,37(2):25-28,35.
[7]赵雪雁,江进德,张丽,等.皖江城市带城市经济联系与中心城市辐射范围分析[J].经济地理,2011,31(2):218-223.
[8] Reilly W J. Methods for the Study of Retail Relationships[M].Texas:Bureau of Business Research,1959.
[9] Ullman E L. American Commodity Flow[M]. Seattle:University of Washington Press,1957.
[10] Isard W. Introduction to Regional Science[M]. Englewood Cliffs N J:Prentice-hall,1975.
[11] Prentice B E,Wang Z,Urbina H J. Derived Demand for Refrigerated Truck Transport:A Gravity Model Analysis of Canadian Pork Exports to the United States[J]. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue Canadienne Dagroeconomie,1998,46(3):317-328.
[12] Edward L. Glaeser Learning in Cities[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1999,46(2):254-277.
[13] Hidenobu Matsumoto. International urban systems and air passenger and cargo flows some calculations[J]. Journal of Air Transport Management,2004(10):241-249.
[14] Kenji Nozaki. Regional disparity and economic linkage in the Greater Mekong Sub-region[J]. International Journal of Development Issues,2014,13(1):59-70.
[15]孟晓晨.嘉兴市对外经济联系初步分析[J].城市规划,1984(3):58-61.
[16]高汝熹,阮红.从杭州、嘉兴与上海的经济联系看建立上海经济圈的必要性[J].城市问题,1988(1):24-28.
[17]周一星.主要经济联系方向论[J].城市规划,1998(2):22-25,61.
[18]牛恩慧,孟庆民,胡其昌,等.甘肃与毗邻省区区域经济联系研究[J].经济地理,1998,18(3):51-56.
[19]韩增林,郭建科,杨大海.辽宁沿海经济带与东北腹地城市流空间联系及互动策略[J].经济地理,2011,31(5):741-747.
[20]涂建军,朱月,李琪,等.基于网络空间结构的长江经济带城市影响区划定[J].经济地理,2017,37(12):65-73.
[21]高兴亮,殷为华.基于引力模型的山东省城市经济联系格局演变[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(S1):458-461.
[22]蒋天颖,谢敏,刘刚.基于引力模型的区域创新产出空间联系研究——以浙江省为例[J].地理科学,2014,34(11):1 320-1 326.
[23]张旭亮,宁越敏.长三角城市群城市经济联系及国际化空间发展战略[J].经济地理,2011,31(3):353-359.
[24]欧向军,薛丽萍,顾雯娟.江苏省县市经济联系的空间特征[J].经济地理,2015,35(8):24-31.
[25]穆成林,陆林,黄剑锋,等.高铁网络下的长三角旅游交通格局及联系研究[J].经济地理,2015,35(12):193-202.
[26]梅志雄,徐颂军,欧阳军,等.近20年珠三角城市群城市空间相互作用时空演变[J].地理科学,2012,32(6):694-701.
[27]姜博,修春亮,赵映慧.“十五”时期环渤海城市群经济联系分析[J].地理科学,2009,29(3):347-352.
[28]徐慧超,韩增林,赵林,等.中原经济区城市经济联系时空变化分析——基于城市流强度的视角[J].经济地理,2013,33(6):53-58.
[29]李亚婷,潘少奇,苗长虹.中原经济区县际经济联系网络结构及其演化特征[J].地理研究,2014,33(7):1 239-1 250.
[30]薛丽萍,欧向军,曾晨,等.淮海经济区主要城市经济联系的空间作用分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(11):52-57.
[31]徐建斌,占强,刘春浩,等.基于经济联系与空间流的长株潭城市群空间异质性分析[J].经济地理,2015,35(10):36-43.
[32]赵东霞,韩增林,赵彪.东北地区城市经济联系的空间格局及其演化[J].地理科学,2016,36(6):846-854.
[33]韩会然,焦华富,李俊峰,等.皖江城市带空间经济联系变化特征的网络分析及机理研究[J].经济地理,2011,31(3):384-389.
[34]李峥荣,徐邓耀,雷舒砚,等.成渝城市群县域经济差异及其成因分析[J].世界地理研究,2018,27(3):76-85.
[35] Wong D W S,Lee J. Statistical Analysis of Geographic Information with ArcView GIS and ArcGIS[M]. New York:John Wiley&Son,2005.
[36]王妙妙,曹小曙.基于交通通达性的关中——天水经济区县际经济联系测度及时空动态分析[J].地理研究,2016,35(6):1 107-1 126.
[37]卢中辉,余斌,刘传明,等.都市圈边缘城市经济联系格局及发展策略研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(3):365-374.
[38] Sun Qian,Tang Fanghua. An economic tie network-structure analysis of urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of Changjiang River based on SNA[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2015,25(6):739-755.
[39]彭芳梅.粤港澳大湾区及周边城市经济空间联系与空间结构——基于改进引力模型与社会网络分析的实证分析[J].经济地理,2017,37(12):57-64.
[40]潘少奇,李亚婷,高建华.中原经济区经济联系网络空间格局[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(1):92-101.
[41]汤放华,汤慧,孙倩,等.长江中游城市集群经济网络结构分析[J].地理学报,2013,68(10):1 357-1 366.
[42]孙斌栋,华杰媛,李琬,等.中国城市群空间结构的演化与影响因素——基于人口分布的形态单中心—多中心视角[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(10):1 294-1 303.
[43]郑文升,姜玉培,卓蓉蓉,等.安徽省县际经济联系网络结构演变及影响因素[J].地理科学,2016,36(2):265-273.
[44]王姣娥,景悦.中国城市网络等级结构特征及组织模式——基于铁路和航空流的比较[J].地理学报,2017,72(8):1 508-1 519.
[2]王雪辉,谷国锋.基于市场潜能的城市经济增长空间格局及溢出效应[J].地理科学,2017,37(11):1 617-1 623.
[3]吴常艳,黄贤金,陈博文,等.长江经济带经济联系空间格局及其经济一体化趋势[J].经济地理,2017,37(7):71-78.
[4]张荣天.长三角城市群网络结构时空演变分析[J].经济地理,2017,37(2):46-52.
[5]赵宏波,马延吉.老工业基地城市可达性及经济联系格局研究——以吉林省为例[J].地理科学,2013,33(11):1 316-1 322.
[6]方超,盛旗锋,李少付.基于引力模型的皖北城市经济联系研究[J].地域研究与开发,2018,37(2):25-28,35.
[7]赵雪雁,江进德,张丽,等.皖江城市带城市经济联系与中心城市辐射范围分析[J].经济地理,2011,31(2):218-223.
[8] Reilly W J. Methods for the Study of Retail Relationships[M].Texas:Bureau of Business Research,1959.
[9] Ullman E L. American Commodity Flow[M]. Seattle:University of Washington Press,1957.
[10] Isard W. Introduction to Regional Science[M]. Englewood Cliffs N J:Prentice-hall,1975.
[11] Prentice B E,Wang Z,Urbina H J. Derived Demand for Refrigerated Truck Transport:A Gravity Model Analysis of Canadian Pork Exports to the United States[J]. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue Canadienne Dagroeconomie,1998,46(3):317-328.
[12] Edward L. Glaeser Learning in Cities[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1999,46(2):254-277.
[13] Hidenobu Matsumoto. International urban systems and air passenger and cargo flows some calculations[J]. Journal of Air Transport Management,2004(10):241-249.
[14] Kenji Nozaki. Regional disparity and economic linkage in the Greater Mekong Sub-region[J]. International Journal of Development Issues,2014,13(1):59-70.
[15]孟晓晨.嘉兴市对外经济联系初步分析[J].城市规划,1984(3):58-61.
[16]高汝熹,阮红.从杭州、嘉兴与上海的经济联系看建立上海经济圈的必要性[J].城市问题,1988(1):24-28.
[17]周一星.主要经济联系方向论[J].城市规划,1998(2):22-25,61.
[18]牛恩慧,孟庆民,胡其昌,等.甘肃与毗邻省区区域经济联系研究[J].经济地理,1998,18(3):51-56.
[19]韩增林,郭建科,杨大海.辽宁沿海经济带与东北腹地城市流空间联系及互动策略[J].经济地理,2011,31(5):741-747.
[20]涂建军,朱月,李琪,等.基于网络空间结构的长江经济带城市影响区划定[J].经济地理,2017,37(12):65-73.
[21]高兴亮,殷为华.基于引力模型的山东省城市经济联系格局演变[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(S1):458-461.
[22]蒋天颖,谢敏,刘刚.基于引力模型的区域创新产出空间联系研究——以浙江省为例[J].地理科学,2014,34(11):1 320-1 326.
[23]张旭亮,宁越敏.长三角城市群城市经济联系及国际化空间发展战略[J].经济地理,2011,31(3):353-359.
[24]欧向军,薛丽萍,顾雯娟.江苏省县市经济联系的空间特征[J].经济地理,2015,35(8):24-31.
[25]穆成林,陆林,黄剑锋,等.高铁网络下的长三角旅游交通格局及联系研究[J].经济地理,2015,35(12):193-202.
[26]梅志雄,徐颂军,欧阳军,等.近20年珠三角城市群城市空间相互作用时空演变[J].地理科学,2012,32(6):694-701.
[27]姜博,修春亮,赵映慧.“十五”时期环渤海城市群经济联系分析[J].地理科学,2009,29(3):347-352.
[28]徐慧超,韩增林,赵林,等.中原经济区城市经济联系时空变化分析——基于城市流强度的视角[J].经济地理,2013,33(6):53-58.
[29]李亚婷,潘少奇,苗长虹.中原经济区县际经济联系网络结构及其演化特征[J].地理研究,2014,33(7):1 239-1 250.
[30]薛丽萍,欧向军,曾晨,等.淮海经济区主要城市经济联系的空间作用分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(11):52-57.
[31]徐建斌,占强,刘春浩,等.基于经济联系与空间流的长株潭城市群空间异质性分析[J].经济地理,2015,35(10):36-43.
[32]赵东霞,韩增林,赵彪.东北地区城市经济联系的空间格局及其演化[J].地理科学,2016,36(6):846-854.
[33]韩会然,焦华富,李俊峰,等.皖江城市带空间经济联系变化特征的网络分析及机理研究[J].经济地理,2011,31(3):384-389.
[34]李峥荣,徐邓耀,雷舒砚,等.成渝城市群县域经济差异及其成因分析[J].世界地理研究,2018,27(3):76-85.
[35] Wong D W S,Lee J. Statistical Analysis of Geographic Information with ArcView GIS and ArcGIS[M]. New York:John Wiley&Son,2005.
[36]王妙妙,曹小曙.基于交通通达性的关中——天水经济区县际经济联系测度及时空动态分析[J].地理研究,2016,35(6):1 107-1 126.
[37]卢中辉,余斌,刘传明,等.都市圈边缘城市经济联系格局及发展策略研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(3):365-374.
[38] Sun Qian,Tang Fanghua. An economic tie network-structure analysis of urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of Changjiang River based on SNA[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2015,25(6):739-755.
[39]彭芳梅.粤港澳大湾区及周边城市经济空间联系与空间结构——基于改进引力模型与社会网络分析的实证分析[J].经济地理,2017,37(12):57-64.
[40]潘少奇,李亚婷,高建华.中原经济区经济联系网络空间格局[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(1):92-101.
[41]汤放华,汤慧,孙倩,等.长江中游城市集群经济网络结构分析[J].地理学报,2013,68(10):1 357-1 366.
[42]孙斌栋,华杰媛,李琬,等.中国城市群空间结构的演化与影响因素——基于人口分布的形态单中心—多中心视角[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(10):1 294-1 303.
[43]郑文升,姜玉培,卓蓉蓉,等.安徽省县际经济联系网络结构演变及影响因素[J].地理科学,2016,36(2):265-273.
[44]王姣娥,景悦.中国城市网络等级结构特征及组织模式——基于铁路和航空流的比较[J].地理学报,2017,72(8):1 508-1 519.
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