地缘环境定量研究综述
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摘要
地缘环境分析是明晰地缘环境、辅助国家战略决策的重要手段,而地缘环境定量研究是提高地缘环境分析结果科学性、准确性的主要途径。该文重点对国内外地缘环境定量研究进行总结归纳,从地缘要素作用机理研究、地缘位势与地缘影响力测度、地缘关系测度、地缘格局划分、地缘环境安全评价、地缘环境模拟与预测等领域综述和评价了地缘环境定量研究的理论、方法和技术研究现状,指出了地缘环境定量研究面临的机遇和挑战。近年来随着相关方法和技术的应用,地缘环境定量研究已经取得积极进展,但仍然存在许多问题有待解决:1)基础理论研究需要进一步加强;2)技术手段需要进一步交叉融合;3)研究方法需要进一步验证;4)研究领域和研究区域需要进一步拓展。研究结果对推动地缘学科的发展具有一定的参考价值。
Geo-environment analysis is a key means making geo-environment clear and aiding state strategy decision,and quantitative study is the main method improving the scientificity and accuracy of geo-environment analysis.In recent years,with the application of relevant methods and technologies,quantitative research on geo-environment has achieved some development.Current theories,methods and technologies of quantitative research on geo-environment were analyzed and assessed from some perspectives,including the study of action mechanism about geo-environment factors,the measure of geo-potential and geopolitics influence,the measure of geo-relationship,the division of geo-pattern,the safety evaluation of geo-environment,the simulation and prediction of geo-environment.Then the challenges of quantitative research on geo-environment were put forward.The results show that important progress has been made in quantitative research on geo-environment,but there exist many problems.First,up to now,the basic theory and method system of geosciences has not been established,which should be strengthened.Second,interdisciplinary methods and technologies should be further introduced into geo-environment research.Third,current methods and models need to be verified,which is especially important for forecasting methods.Last,research fields and regions need to be further expanded.The results are valuable to promote further development of geo-environment research.
Geo-environment analysis is a key means making geo-environment clear and aiding state strategy decision,and quantitative study is the main method improving the scientificity and accuracy of geo-environment analysis.In recent years,with the application of relevant methods and technologies,quantitative research on geo-environment has achieved some development.Current theories,methods and technologies of quantitative research on geo-environment were analyzed and assessed from some perspectives,including the study of action mechanism about geo-environment factors,the measure of geo-potential and geopolitics influence,the measure of geo-relationship,the division of geo-pattern,the safety evaluation of geo-environment,the simulation and prediction of geo-environment.Then the challenges of quantitative research on geo-environment were put forward.The results show that important progress has been made in quantitative research on geo-environment,but there exist many problems.First,up to now,the basic theory and method system of geosciences has not been established,which should be strengthened.Second,interdisciplinary methods and technologies should be further introduced into geo-environment research.Third,current methods and models need to be verified,which is especially important for forecasting methods.Last,research fields and regions need to be further expanded.The results are valuable to promote further development of geo-environment research.
引文
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[2] 熊琛然,武友德,李正,等.国家地缘体类属及其对地缘战略抉择的影响[J].地理与地理信息科学,2016,32(6):117-124.
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[5] 秦奇,成升魁,李飞,等.1992年以来国内外地缘政治比较研究——基于地理学视角的分析[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(12):1475-1488.
[6] GIMPEL J G,LEE F E,THORPE R U.The wellsprings of candidate emergence:Geographic origins of statewide candidacies in the United States[J].Political Geography,2011,30(1):25-37.
[7] ARZHEIMER K,EVANS J.Geolocation and voting:Candidate-voter distance effects on party choice in the 2010 UK general election in England[J].Political Geography,2012,31(5):301-310.
[8] DAVID Q,VAN H G.Pillars and electoral behavior in Belgium:The neighborhood effect revisited[J].Political Geography,2011,30(5):250-262.
[9] FUNKE M,SCHULARICK M,TREBESCH C.Going to extremes:Politics after financial crises,1870-2014[J].European Economic Review,2015(88):227-260.
[10] BUHAUG H,R?D J K.Local determinants of African civil wars,1970-2001[J].Political Geography,2006,25(3):315-335.
[11] GIZELIS T I,WOODEN A E.Water resources,institutions,& intrastate conflict[J].Political Geography,2010,29(8):444-453.
[12] HENDRIX C S,GLASER S M.Trends and triggers:Climate,climate change and civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa[J].Political Geography,2007,26(6):695-715.
[13] FJELDE H,VON U N.Climate triggers:Rainfall anomalies,vulnerability and communal conflict in sub-Saharan Africa[J].Political Geography,2012,31(7):444-453.
[14] BROCHMANN M.Signing river treaties—Does it improve river cooperation?[J].International Interactions,2012,38(2):141-163.
[15] BROCHMANN M,GLEDITSCH N P.Shared rivers and conflict—a reconsideration[J].Political Geography,2012,31(8):519-527.
[16] ZAWAHRI N,MCLAUGHLIN MITCHELL S.Fragmented governance of international rivers:Negotiating bilateral vs.Multilateral Treaties[J].International Studies Quarterly,2011,55(3):835-858.
[17] BECK L,BERNAUER T,SIEGFRIED T,et al.Implications of hydro-political dependency for international water cooperation and conflict:Insights from new data[J].Political Geography,2014,33(42):23-33.
[18] RUSSETT B,ONEAL J,DAVIS D.The third leg of the Kantian tripod for peace:International organizations and militarized disputes,1950-85[J].International Organization,1998,52(3):441-467.
[19] MAOZ Z,RANAN D K,TERRIS L,et al.Structural equivalence and international conflict—a social network analysis[J].Journal of Conflict Resolution,2006,50(5):664-689.
[20] NOUGUERA-SANTAELLA J.Geopolitics and the oil price[J].Economic Modeling,2016(52):301-309.
[21] 种照辉,覃成林.“一带一路”贸易网络结构及其影响因素——基于网络分析方法的研究[J].国际经贸探索,2017,33(5):16-28.
[22] 胡志丁,刘玉立,李灿松,等.权力、地缘环境与地缘位势评价——以中日钓鱼岛之争为例[J].热带地理,2014,34(1):50-57.
[23] 王淑芳,葛岳静,刘玉立.中美在南亚地缘影响力的时空演变及机制[J].地理学报,2015,70(6):864-878.
[24] 冯长强.基于GIS的地缘环境分析方法与建模研究[D].郑州:信息工程大学,2017.40-59.
[25] GU M C,WANG L M.Assessment of oil and gas geopolitical influence[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2015,25(3):369-384.
[26] 李少军.“冲突合作模型”与中美关系的量化分析[J].世界经济与政治,2002(4):43-49.
[27] 阎学通,周方银.国家双边关系的定量衡量[J].中国社会科学,2004(6):90-103.
[28] 阎学通,周方银.对1月4日中日关系预测的检验[J].世界知识,2004(8):42-43.
[29] 阎学通,周方银.对4月4日中美关系预测的检验[J].世界知识,2004(14):44-45.
[30] 阎学通,周方银.对5月4日中俄关系预测的检验[J].世界知识,2004(16):40-41.
[31] 王淑芳,阳婷慧,葛岳静,等.基于事件数据分析法的中缅地缘关系演变[J].经济地理,2015,35(10):13-20.
[32] 漆海霞,阎学通.中国周边环境与危机风险评估[J].指挥信息系统与技术,2017,8(4):76-82.
[33] 于芹章,胡晓峰,罗批,等.基于事件流的国际政治仿真研究[J].系统仿真学报,2007,19(6):1362-1365.
[34] 温志宏.距离分析:地缘经济关系评价的一种方法[J].统计与决策,1998(1):8-10.
[35] 李国柱,段梅素,于海燕.河北省地缘经济关系测度分析[J].地质技术经济管理,2003,25(6):79-82.
[36] 楮倩倩,肖建红.喀什经济特区对外经济联系与地缘经济关系的匹配分析[J].青岛大学学报(自然科学版),2012,25(2):67-72.
[37] 苏东辉,骆华松,蔡定坤.区外大国与东南亚地缘经济关系测度分析[J].世界地理研究,2013,22(1):1-11.
[38] 熊理然,李丽君,陆跃明.越南与周边主要国家地缘经济关系的演变(1986-2013)[J].玉林师范学院学报(哲学社会科学),2016,37(3):37-42.
[39] FAGIOLO G,REYES J,SCHIAVO S.The evolution of the world trade web:A weighted-network analysis[J].Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2010,20(4):479-514.
[40] 陈银飞.2000-2009年世界贸易格局的社会网络分析[J].国际贸易问题,2011(11):31-42.
[41] 潘峰华,赖志勇,葛岳静.经贸视角下中国周边地缘环境分析:基于社会网络分析方法[J].地理研究,2015,34(4):775-786.
[42] 李红,覃巧玲.基于网络视角的东盟地缘中心性战略环境分析[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2016(2):34-51.
[43] 黄宇,葛岳静,马腾,等.中国高铁外交的地缘空间格局[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(12):1489-1499.
[44] 李振福,闵德权,马玄慧.北极航线地缘政治格局演变的能量地形仿真[J].上海海事大学学报,2010,31(3):84-90.
[45] 李振福,闵德权.北极航线地缘政治格局的人工鱼群模糊聚类分析[J].地理科学,2011,31(1):55-60.
[46] 胡志丁,葛岳静,鲍捷,等.南亚地缘环境的空间格局与分异规律研究[J].地理科学,2013,33(6):685-692.
[47] 陈健,李宏伟,张斌.基于标准差方法的地缘环境单元划分研究[J].测绘工程,2014,32(8):6-11.
[48] 周秋文,杨胜天,廖华,等.地缘环境单元划分方法及实例研究[J].世界地理研究,2016,25(4):58-66.
[49] 宋涛,程艺,刘卫东,等.中国边境地缘经济的空间差异及影响机制[J].地理学报,2017,72(10):1731-1745.
[50] 张克成.基于方法论视角的中国东北亚地缘政治安全[D].长春:吉林大学,2012.
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