基于多维GIS情景分析的战略规划技术研究
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摘要
针对当前我国空间规划中经验决策难以适应经济社会发展的困境,提出了基于多维GIS情景分析的战略规划技术,通过将GIS空间分析、方案规划与多目标决策技术相结合,实现了"有限理性"的规划分析技术。通过介绍空间维度和时间维度的两种运用途径和案例,阐述了该规划技术采用的方法、思路和分析过程。研究结果表明该规划分析方法能将空间规划中的关键要素进行空间量化,更加贴近现实的复杂决策环境,并将其与多目标的价值判断相结合,依托GIS平台实现影响因素的互相联系比对功能,作为一种战略规划的技术支撑,能辅助决策者在不确定性和不可预知的环境中做出相对合理的决策。
In order to cope with the dilemma that it is difficult for the experiential decisionmaking in current spatial planning to adapt to economic and social development, this paper puts forward a strategy planning technique based on multi-dimensional GIS-scenario analysis. This analysis technique realizes the "bounded rationality" planning idea by integrating GIS spatial analysis, scenario planning, and multi-objective decision. Through two application cases with regard to spatial dimension and time series respectively, this paper introduces the methods, ideas, and analysis process of this technique. The research results indicate: the technique could make the quantitative analysis of spatial distribution factors more accurate, closer to the complicated decision-making environment; by combining with multi-objective value judgment, it achieves the interrelation and competition of the influencing factors by relying on GIS platform; as a technical support of strategy planning, it helps decision makers make relatively reasonable decisions in the uncertain and unpredictable circumstances.
In order to cope with the dilemma that it is difficult for the experiential decisionmaking in current spatial planning to adapt to economic and social development, this paper puts forward a strategy planning technique based on multi-dimensional GIS-scenario analysis. This analysis technique realizes the "bounded rationality" planning idea by integrating GIS spatial analysis, scenario planning, and multi-objective decision. Through two application cases with regard to spatial dimension and time series respectively, this paper introduces the methods, ideas, and analysis process of this technique. The research results indicate: the technique could make the quantitative analysis of spatial distribution factors more accurate, closer to the complicated decision-making environment; by combining with multi-objective value judgment, it achieves the interrelation and competition of the influencing factors by relying on GIS platform; as a technical support of strategy planning, it helps decision makers make relatively reasonable decisions in the uncertain and unpredictable circumstances.
引文
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5 岳珍,赖茂生.国外“情景分析”方法的进展[J].情报杂志,2006(7):59-60.Yue Zhen,Lai Maosheng.Research Progress Abroad on Scenario Analysis[J].Journal of Information,2006(7):59-60.
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11 黎夏,杨青生,刘小平.基于CA的城市演变的知识挖掘及规划情景模拟[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),2007,7(9):1242-1251.Li Xia,Yang Qingsheng,Liu Xiaoping.Urban Evolution and Planning Scenario Simulation Based on Cellular Automata[J].Science in China(Series D:Earth Sciences),2007,7(9):1242-1251.
12 Kahn H,Wiener A.The Year 2000[M].New York:Mac Millan,1967.
13 Schwartz P.The Art of the Long View,Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World[M].West Sussex:John Wiley&Sons Ltd.,1998.
14 Chermack T J.Studying Scenario Planning:Theory,Research Suggestions,and Hypotheses[J].Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2005(72):59-73.
15 Mahmud J.City Foresight and Development Planning CaseStudy:Implementation of Scenario Planning in Formulation of the Bulungan Development Plan[J].Futures,2011(43):697-706.
16 Gordon R C.Scenario Planning:A Strategic Alternative[J].Public Management,1995,77(3):4-8.
17 Chermack T J,Lynham S A,Ruona W E A.A Review of Scenario Planning Literature[J].Futures Research Quarterly,2001,17(2):7-31.
18 胡运权.运筹学教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003.Hu Yunquan.Operational Research[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2003.
19 Frey H.Designing the City:Towards a More Sustainable Urban Form[M].Taylor&Francis,2000.
20 吴一洲,陈前虎,邵波,等.大都市成长区空间特征及其城镇发展模式研究[J].城市规划,2010,34 (10):36-42.Wu Yizhou,Chen Qianhu,Shao Bo,et al.Research on Spatial Characteristics and Urban Development Pattern in the Growth District of the Metropolitan Area[J].City Planning Review,2010,34(10):36-42.
2 Robbins S P,Coulter M.Management[M].10th ed.Prentice Hall,2008.
3 Anderson J E.Public Policy-Making[M].New York:Hlot,Rinehart and Winston,1979.
4 刘贵利,等.城市规划决策学[M].南京:东南大学出版社,2010.Liu Guili,et al.The Decision Making of Urban Planning[M].Nanjing:Southeast University Press,2010.
5 岳珍,赖茂生.国外“情景分析”方法的进展[J].情报杂志,2006(7):59-60.Yue Zhen,Lai Maosheng.Research Progress Abroad on Scenario Analysis[J].Journal of Information,2006(7):59-60.
6 丁成日,宋彦,张扬.北京市总体规划修编的技术支持:方案规划应用实例[J].城市发展研究,2006(3):117-126.Ding Chengri,Song Yan,Zhang Yang.Beijing Urban Master Plan Revision:Application of Scenario Planning[J].Urban Development Studies,2006(3):117-126.
7 Amy Z.Alternative Futures:Scenario Planning in Transportation[J].HSR,2005,2(1):1-9.
8 丁成日.芝加哥大都市区规划:方案规划的成功案例[J].国外城市规划,2005(4):26-33.Ding Chengri.Chicago Metropolitan Planning:Applying Scenario Planning[J].Urban Planning Overseas,2005(4):26-33.
9 龙瀛,沈振江,毛其智,等.基于约束性CA方法的北京城市形态情景分析[J].地理学报,2010,65 (6):643-655.Long Ying,Shen Zhenjiang,Mao Qizhi,et al.Form Scenario Analysis Using Constrained Cellular Automata[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,65(6):643-655.
10 钮心毅,宋小冬,高晓显.土地使用情景:一种城市总体规划方案生成与评价的方法[J].城市规划学刊,2008(4):64-69.Niu Xinyi,Song Xiaodong,Gao Xiaoxian.Land Use Scenarios:An Approach for Urban Master Plans Formulation and Evaluation[J].Urban Planning Forum,2008(4):64-69.
11 黎夏,杨青生,刘小平.基于CA的城市演变的知识挖掘及规划情景模拟[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),2007,7(9):1242-1251.Li Xia,Yang Qingsheng,Liu Xiaoping.Urban Evolution and Planning Scenario Simulation Based on Cellular Automata[J].Science in China(Series D:Earth Sciences),2007,7(9):1242-1251.
12 Kahn H,Wiener A.The Year 2000[M].New York:Mac Millan,1967.
13 Schwartz P.The Art of the Long View,Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World[M].West Sussex:John Wiley&Sons Ltd.,1998.
14 Chermack T J.Studying Scenario Planning:Theory,Research Suggestions,and Hypotheses[J].Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2005(72):59-73.
15 Mahmud J.City Foresight and Development Planning CaseStudy:Implementation of Scenario Planning in Formulation of the Bulungan Development Plan[J].Futures,2011(43):697-706.
16 Gordon R C.Scenario Planning:A Strategic Alternative[J].Public Management,1995,77(3):4-8.
17 Chermack T J,Lynham S A,Ruona W E A.A Review of Scenario Planning Literature[J].Futures Research Quarterly,2001,17(2):7-31.
18 胡运权.运筹学教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003.Hu Yunquan.Operational Research[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,2003.
19 Frey H.Designing the City:Towards a More Sustainable Urban Form[M].Taylor&Francis,2000.
20 吴一洲,陈前虎,邵波,等.大都市成长区空间特征及其城镇发展模式研究[J].城市规划,2010,34 (10):36-42.Wu Yizhou,Chen Qianhu,Shao Bo,et al.Research on Spatial Characteristics and Urban Development Pattern in the Growth District of the Metropolitan Area[J].City Planning Review,2010,34(10):36-42.