基于案例推理的交通基础设施PPP项目再谈判触发点识别研究
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摘要
为了减少再谈判的发生,降低管理成本,提高效率,提出基于案例推理的再谈判触发点识别模型。首先,运用粗糙集理论对初始案例特征属性进行约简,并综合使用熵权法和层次分析法对各案例特征属性权重进行优化;然后,通过案例总体相似度检索与拟建PPP项目相似的源案例,识别出拟建项目最有可能发生的再谈判触发点;最后,以深圳梧桐山隧道PPP项目为例,验证模型的合理性与有效性,同时,提出相应的事前预防措施。
In order to avoid unnecessary potential renegotiations in transport infrastructure PPP project, reduce the management cost and improve the efficiency, the renegotiation trigger point identification model based on case-based reasoning(CBR) technology is proposed. Firstly, the rough set theory is used to simplify the initial case feature attributes, and the entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process are used to optimize the feature weights of each case. And then the most likely occurred renegotiation trigger point in the proposed project is identified by general similarity search of the case and source cases similar to PPP project. Finally, the rationality and effectiveness of the model are verified by case study of the PPP project of Shenzhen Wutongshan Tunnel, and corresponding preventive measures are proposed.
In order to avoid unnecessary potential renegotiations in transport infrastructure PPP project, reduce the management cost and improve the efficiency, the renegotiation trigger point identification model based on case-based reasoning(CBR) technology is proposed. Firstly, the rough set theory is used to simplify the initial case feature attributes, and the entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process are used to optimize the feature weights of each case. And then the most likely occurred renegotiation trigger point in the proposed project is identified by general similarity search of the case and source cases similar to PPP project. Finally, the rationality and effectiveness of the model are verified by case study of the PPP project of Shenzhen Wutongshan Tunnel, and corresponding preventive measures are proposed.
引文
[1] 王芳芳, 董骁. 影响城市水业特许经营合同重新谈判的因素[J]. 城市问题, 2014(1): 95.WANG Fangfang, DONG Xiao.Factors of influencing renegotiation of concession contracts for urban water industry of China[J]. Urban Problems, 2014(1): 95.
[2] 吴淑莲. PPP项目再谈判关键风险因素识别与操作规程设计[J]. 工程管理学报, 2017, 31(3): 70. WU Shulian.Critical risk factors of renegotiation in PPP projects and operation instructions[J]. Journal of Engineering Management, 2017, 31(3): 70.
[3] 刘婷, 赵桐, 王守清. 基于案例的我国PPP项目再谈判情况研究[J]. 建筑经济, 2016, 37(9): 31.LIU Ting, ZAHO Tong, WANG Shouqing.Research on renegotiations of China′s PPP projects based on case analysis[J]. Construction Economy, 2016, 37(9): 31.
[4] 贺静文, 刘婷婷. PPP项目争端谈判的关键影响因素[J]. 土木工程与管理学报, 2017, 34(4): 125. HE Jingwen, LIU Tingting.Critical factors influencing the dispute negotiation in PPP projects[J]. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2017, 34(4): 125.
[5] 任志涛, 张赛, 王滢菡, 等. PPP项目触发再谈判的关键因素分析: 基于结构方程模型[J]. 建筑经济, 2017, 38(7): 44. REN Zhitao, ZHANG Sai, WANG Yinghan, et al.Key factor analysis of triggering renegotiation in PPP project: Based on structural equation model[J].Construction Economy, 2017, 38(7): 44.
[6] TREBILCOCK M, ROSENSTOCK M.Infrastructure public-private partnerships in the developing world: Lessons from recent experience[J].Journal of Development Studies, 2015, 51(4): 335.
[7] EDUARDO B, NIETOPARRA S, ROBLEDO J S. Opening the black box of contract renegotiations: An analysis of road concessions in Chile, Colombia and Peru[J]. OECD Development Centre Working Papers, 2013(4): 317.
[8] 孙慧, 孙晓鹏, 范志清. PPP项目中再谈判关键影响因素的研究[J].国际经济合作, 2010(3): 58.SUN Hui, SUN Xiaopeng, FAN Zhiqing.Research on the critical influencing factors of renegotiation in PPP projects[J].Journal of International Economic Cooperation, 2010(3): 58.
[9] DOMINGUES S, SARMENTO J M.Critical renegotiation triggers of European transport concessions [J]. Transport Policy, 2016(48): 82.
[10] 徐中. 城市基础设施PPP项目中再谈判触发条件的研究[D]. 天津: 天津理工大学, 2015. XU Zhong.Research on the trigger condition of renegotiation in urban infrastructure PPP project[D].Tianjin: Tianjin University of Technology, 2015.
[11] SONG J, HU Y, FENG Z.Factors influencing early termination of PPP projects in China[J].Journal of Management in Engineering, 2018, 34(1): 05017008-1.
[12] 马桑. PPP项目再谈判的博弈分析与模型构建[J]. 现代管理科学, 2016(1): 40. MA Sang.Game analysis and model construction of renegotiation in PPP projects[J].Modern Management Science, 2016(1): 40.
[13] 刘华, 黄小龙. EPC合同争端预警及案例分析[J]. 重庆大学学报, 2014, 37(9): 144.LIU Hua, HUANG Xiaolong.EPC contract dispute alert and case analysis[J].Journal of Chongqing University, 2014, 37(9): 144.
[14] PERNER P.Mining sparse and big data by case-based reasoning [J].Procedia Computer Science, 2014(35): 19.
[15] 柳炳祥, 盛昭翰. 基于案例推理的企业危机预警系统设计[J]. 中国软科学, 2003(3): 67.LIU Bingxiang, SHENG Zhaohan.Design for enterprise crisis alert system based on case-based reasoning[J].China Soft Science, 2003(3): 67.
[16] 翟瑞, 张云宁, 仲冉. 基于AHP和VPRS建筑施工安全风险评价体系及其权重[J]. 土木工程与管理学报, 2016, 33(6): 109. ZHAI Rui, ZHANG Yunning, ZHONG Ran.Construction safety risk evaluation system and its weight based on AHP and VPRS[J]. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2016, 33(6): 109.
[17] 张健, 鲍学英, 王起才. 基于ANP和粗糙集计算权重的绿色铁路客站评估[J]. 铁道标准设计,2017, 61(7): 150. ZHANG Jian, BAO Xueying, WANG Qicai.Green railway station evaluation based on ANP and rough set calculation weight[J]. Railway Standard Design, 2017, 61(7): 150.
[18] 马建, 孙守增, 赵文义, 等. 中国隧道工程学术研究综述2015[J]. 中国公路学报, 2015, 28(5): 1. MA Jian, SUN Shouzeng, ZHAO Wenyi, et al.Review on China′s tunnel engineering research: 2015[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2015, 28(5): 1.
[19] 仇国芳, 王景垚. 基于粗糙集的绿色施工项目评标模型[J]. 统计与决策, 2015(11): 178.QIU Guofang, WANG Jingyao.Evaluation model of green construction projects based on rough set[J]. Statistics & Decision, 2015(11): 178.
[2] 吴淑莲. PPP项目再谈判关键风险因素识别与操作规程设计[J]. 工程管理学报, 2017, 31(3): 70. WU Shulian.Critical risk factors of renegotiation in PPP projects and operation instructions[J]. Journal of Engineering Management, 2017, 31(3): 70.
[3] 刘婷, 赵桐, 王守清. 基于案例的我国PPP项目再谈判情况研究[J]. 建筑经济, 2016, 37(9): 31.LIU Ting, ZAHO Tong, WANG Shouqing.Research on renegotiations of China′s PPP projects based on case analysis[J]. Construction Economy, 2016, 37(9): 31.
[4] 贺静文, 刘婷婷. PPP项目争端谈判的关键影响因素[J]. 土木工程与管理学报, 2017, 34(4): 125. HE Jingwen, LIU Tingting.Critical factors influencing the dispute negotiation in PPP projects[J]. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2017, 34(4): 125.
[5] 任志涛, 张赛, 王滢菡, 等. PPP项目触发再谈判的关键因素分析: 基于结构方程模型[J]. 建筑经济, 2017, 38(7): 44. REN Zhitao, ZHANG Sai, WANG Yinghan, et al.Key factor analysis of triggering renegotiation in PPP project: Based on structural equation model[J].Construction Economy, 2017, 38(7): 44.
[6] TREBILCOCK M, ROSENSTOCK M.Infrastructure public-private partnerships in the developing world: Lessons from recent experience[J].Journal of Development Studies, 2015, 51(4): 335.
[7] EDUARDO B, NIETOPARRA S, ROBLEDO J S. Opening the black box of contract renegotiations: An analysis of road concessions in Chile, Colombia and Peru[J]. OECD Development Centre Working Papers, 2013(4): 317.
[8] 孙慧, 孙晓鹏, 范志清. PPP项目中再谈判关键影响因素的研究[J].国际经济合作, 2010(3): 58.SUN Hui, SUN Xiaopeng, FAN Zhiqing.Research on the critical influencing factors of renegotiation in PPP projects[J].Journal of International Economic Cooperation, 2010(3): 58.
[9] DOMINGUES S, SARMENTO J M.Critical renegotiation triggers of European transport concessions [J]. Transport Policy, 2016(48): 82.
[10] 徐中. 城市基础设施PPP项目中再谈判触发条件的研究[D]. 天津: 天津理工大学, 2015. XU Zhong.Research on the trigger condition of renegotiation in urban infrastructure PPP project[D].Tianjin: Tianjin University of Technology, 2015.
[11] SONG J, HU Y, FENG Z.Factors influencing early termination of PPP projects in China[J].Journal of Management in Engineering, 2018, 34(1): 05017008-1.
[12] 马桑. PPP项目再谈判的博弈分析与模型构建[J]. 现代管理科学, 2016(1): 40. MA Sang.Game analysis and model construction of renegotiation in PPP projects[J].Modern Management Science, 2016(1): 40.
[13] 刘华, 黄小龙. EPC合同争端预警及案例分析[J]. 重庆大学学报, 2014, 37(9): 144.LIU Hua, HUANG Xiaolong.EPC contract dispute alert and case analysis[J].Journal of Chongqing University, 2014, 37(9): 144.
[14] PERNER P.Mining sparse and big data by case-based reasoning [J].Procedia Computer Science, 2014(35): 19.
[15] 柳炳祥, 盛昭翰. 基于案例推理的企业危机预警系统设计[J]. 中国软科学, 2003(3): 67.LIU Bingxiang, SHENG Zhaohan.Design for enterprise crisis alert system based on case-based reasoning[J].China Soft Science, 2003(3): 67.
[16] 翟瑞, 张云宁, 仲冉. 基于AHP和VPRS建筑施工安全风险评价体系及其权重[J]. 土木工程与管理学报, 2016, 33(6): 109. ZHAI Rui, ZHANG Yunning, ZHONG Ran.Construction safety risk evaluation system and its weight based on AHP and VPRS[J]. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2016, 33(6): 109.
[17] 张健, 鲍学英, 王起才. 基于ANP和粗糙集计算权重的绿色铁路客站评估[J]. 铁道标准设计,2017, 61(7): 150. ZHANG Jian, BAO Xueying, WANG Qicai.Green railway station evaluation based on ANP and rough set calculation weight[J]. Railway Standard Design, 2017, 61(7): 150.
[18] 马建, 孙守增, 赵文义, 等. 中国隧道工程学术研究综述2015[J]. 中国公路学报, 2015, 28(5): 1. MA Jian, SUN Shouzeng, ZHAO Wenyi, et al.Review on China′s tunnel engineering research: 2015[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2015, 28(5): 1.
[19] 仇国芳, 王景垚. 基于粗糙集的绿色施工项目评标模型[J]. 统计与决策, 2015(11): 178.QIU Guofang, WANG Jingyao.Evaluation model of green construction projects based on rough set[J]. Statistics & Decision, 2015(11): 178.