基于MaxEnt模型的珙桐在中国潜在适生区预测
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摘要
珙桐为我国特有珍稀树种,预测珙桐潜在适生区可为珙桐物种保护与研究提供重要参考。基于387条中国境内样本分布数据和27个环境因子,利用MaxEnt模型与地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS),对珙桐在中国的潜在适生区进行预测,并通过受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线对模型精度进行验证。结果表明:ROC曲线下面积(AUC)平均值为0.951,模型预测结果准确性较高,适合珙桐的潜在适生区预测;珙桐潜在适生区主要位于四川、云南、贵州、湖南、湖北、重庆、陕西和西藏等地区,高适生区呈不规则环状分布,西起横断山区,北达秦岭-武当山-荆山一线,东抵张家界-雪峰山一带,南至贵阳,在西藏东南部的雅鲁藏布江河谷和安徽西部的大别山地区也有分布;气温年较差、年降水量、最冷月最低温、昼夜温差、降水量变异系数等5个环境因子对珙桐潜在适生区预测影响最大,其他环境因子,如地形、土壤、水文等影响较小。
Davidia involucrata Baill is a rare and precious tree species in China.The prediction of its suitable habitats can provide important reference for its protection and research.Based on387 sample distribution and 27 environmental factors in China,the MaxEnt model and geographic information system(GIS) were used to predict the potential suitable habitats.The accuracy of the model was verified by receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC).The results showed that the mean value of the area under ROC curve was 0.951,and the accuracy of the model was high,which was suitable for predicting potential suitable habitats of D.involucrata.The potential suitable habitats for D.involucrata were mainly located in Sichuan,Yunnan,Guizhou,Hunan,Hubei,Chongqing,Shanxi,and Tibet.The highly potential suitable habitats distributed in an irregular circular shape,with the Hengduan Mountains to the west,the Qinling-Wudang-Jinshan Mountains to the north,the Zhangjiajie-Xuefeng Mountains to the east and the south to Guiyang.In addition,they are also distributed in the Yarlung Zangbo River Valley in the southeast of Tibet and the Dabie Mountains in western Anhui.The major factors determining the potential suitable distribution were annual temperature range,annual precipitation,minimum temperature of coldest month,diurnal temperature difference,and annual precipitation variation coefficient.Other environmental factors,such as topography,soil,hydrology,had limited influence on the distribution of D.involucrata.
Davidia involucrata Baill is a rare and precious tree species in China.The prediction of its suitable habitats can provide important reference for its protection and research.Based on387 sample distribution and 27 environmental factors in China,the MaxEnt model and geographic information system(GIS) were used to predict the potential suitable habitats.The accuracy of the model was verified by receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC).The results showed that the mean value of the area under ROC curve was 0.951,and the accuracy of the model was high,which was suitable for predicting potential suitable habitats of D.involucrata.The potential suitable habitats for D.involucrata were mainly located in Sichuan,Yunnan,Guizhou,Hunan,Hubei,Chongqing,Shanxi,and Tibet.The highly potential suitable habitats distributed in an irregular circular shape,with the Hengduan Mountains to the west,the Qinling-Wudang-Jinshan Mountains to the north,the Zhangjiajie-Xuefeng Mountains to the east and the south to Guiyang.In addition,they are also distributed in the Yarlung Zangbo River Valley in the southeast of Tibet and the Dabie Mountains in western Anhui.The major factors determining the potential suitable distribution were annual temperature range,annual precipitation,minimum temperature of coldest month,diurnal temperature difference,and annual precipitation variation coefficient.Other environmental factors,such as topography,soil,hydrology,had limited influence on the distribution of D.involucrata.
引文
曹向锋,钱国良,胡白石,等.2010.采用生态位模型预测黄顶菊在中国的潜在适生区.应用生态学报,21(12):3063-3069.
傅立国.1991.中国植物红皮书.北京:科学出版社.
郭杰,刘小平,张琴,等.2017.基于Maxent模型的党参全球潜在分布区预测.应用生态学报,28(3):992-1000.
胡秀,吴福川,郭微,等.2014.基于MaxEnt生态学模型的檀香在中国的潜在种植区预测.林业科学,50(5):27-33.
胡进耀,苏智先,黎云祥.2003.珙桐生物学研究进展.中国野生植物资源,22(4):15-19.
雷军成,徐海根.2010.基于MaxEnt的加拿大一枝黄花在中国的潜在分布区预测.生态与农村环境学报,26(2):137-141.
刘海洋,金晓玲,薛会雯,等.2012.珙桐的群落特征及种群生态学研究进展.中国农学通报,28(22):1-4.
柳晓燕,李俊生,赵彩云,等.2016.基于MAXENT模型和Arc GIS预测豚草在中国的潜在适生区.植物保护学报,43(6):1041-1048.
罗世家.2002.珙桐种子的解剖研究.湖北民族学院学报:自然科学版,20(4):18-19.
马宇飞,李俊清.2005.湖北七姊妹山珙桐种群结构研究.北京林业大学学报,27(3):12-16.
彭玉兰,胡运乾,孙航.2003.光叶珙桐的等位酶分析及其生物地理学意义.植物分类与资源学报,25(1):55-62.
宋丛文,包满珠.2004.利用RAPD标记对珙桐地理种群遗传分化的研究.林业科学研究,17(5):605-609.
苏智先,张素兰.1999.珙桐种群生殖物候及其影响因子研究.西华师范大学学报:自然科学版,20(4):313-318.
谭钰凡,左小清.2018.基于GIS与Maxent模型的金花茶潜在适生区与保护研究.热带亚热带植物学报,26(1):24-32.
王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,等.2008.ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用.生物多样性,15(4):365-372.
吴刚,肖寒,李静,等.2000.珍稀濒危植物珙桐的生存与人为活动的关系.应用生态学报,11(4):493-496.
吴建国,吕佳佳.2009.气候变化对珙桐分布的潜在影响.环境科学研究,22(12):1371-1381.
徐军,曹博,白成科.2015.基于MaxEnt濒危植物独叶草的中国潜在适生分布区预测.生态学杂志,34(12):3354-3359.
禹玉婷,徐刚标,汪晓萍.2006.珙桐研究进展.经济林研究,24(4):92-94.
喻理飞.2002.贵州柏箐喀斯特台原区珙桐群落特征研究.贵州科学,20(3):44-47.
占玉燕,刘艳红,熊文娟.2010.珙桐濒危原因研究现状及展望.湖北林业科技,(1):41-43.
张路.2015.MAXENT最大熵模型在预测物种潜在分布范围方面的应用.生物学通报,50(11):9-12.
张海娟,陈勇,黄烈健,等.2011.基于生态位模型的薇甘菊在中国适生区的预测.农业工程学报,27(s1):413-418.
张家勋,李俊清,周宝顺,等.1995.珙桐的天然分布和人工引种分析.北京林业大学学报,17(1):25-30.
张清华,郭泉水,徐德应,等.2000.气候变化对我国珍稀濒危树种珙桐地理分布的影响研究.林业科学,36(2):47-52.
朱利君,苏智先,胡进耀,等.2006.珙桐群落种间关系的研究.广西植物,26(1):32-37.
Chikerema SM,Gwitira I,Murwira A,et al.2017.Comparison of GARP and Maxent in modelling the geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Zimbabwe.Zimbabwe Veterinary Journal,35:1-6.
Elith J,Phillips SJ,Hastie T,et al.2011.A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists.Diversity and Distributions,17:43-57.
Flory AR,Kumar S,Stohlgren TJ,et al.2012.Environmental conditions associated with bat white-nose syndrome mortality in the north-eastern United States.Journal of Applied Ecology,49:680-689.
Hanley JA,McNeil BJ.1982.The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Radiology,143:29-36.
Meynard CN,Quinn JF.2007.Predicting species distributions:A critical comparison of the most common statistical models using artificial species.Journal of Biogeography,34:1455-1469.
Moreno R,Zamora R,Molina JR,et al.2011.Predictive modeling of microhabitats for endemic birds in South Chilean temperate forests using maximum entropy(Maxent).Ecological Informatics,6:364-370.
Padalia H,Srivastava V,Kushwaha SPS.2014.Modeling potential invasion range of alien invasive species,Hyptis suaveolens(L.)Poit.in India:Comparison of MaxEnt and GARP.Ecological Informatics,22:36-43.
Pearson RG,Thuiller W,Araújo MB,et al.2006.Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction.Journal of Biogeography,33:1704-1711.
Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,Dudík M,et al.2017.Opening the black box:An open-source release of Maxent.Ecography,40:887-893.
Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,Schapire RE.2006.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.Ecological Modelling,190:231-259.
Phillips SJ,Dudík M.2008.Modeling of species distributions with Maxent:New extensions and a comprehensive evaluation.Ecography,31:161-175.
Tang CQ,Dong YF,Herrando-Moraira S,et al.2017.Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China.Scientific Reports,7:43822.
Xiao J,Xu W,Kang D,et al.2011.Nature reserve group planning for conservation of giant pandas in North Minshan,China.Journal for Nature Conservation,19:209-214.
Yackulic CB,Chandler R,Zipkin EF,et al.2013.Presenceonly modelling using MAXENT:When can we trust the inferences.Methods in Ecology&Evolution,4:236-243.
Yang XQ,Kushwaha SPS,Saran S,et al.2013.Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plant,Justicia adhatoda L.in Lesser Himalayan foothills.Ecological Engineering,51:83-87.
傅立国.1991.中国植物红皮书.北京:科学出版社.
郭杰,刘小平,张琴,等.2017.基于Maxent模型的党参全球潜在分布区预测.应用生态学报,28(3):992-1000.
胡秀,吴福川,郭微,等.2014.基于MaxEnt生态学模型的檀香在中国的潜在种植区预测.林业科学,50(5):27-33.
胡进耀,苏智先,黎云祥.2003.珙桐生物学研究进展.中国野生植物资源,22(4):15-19.
雷军成,徐海根.2010.基于MaxEnt的加拿大一枝黄花在中国的潜在分布区预测.生态与农村环境学报,26(2):137-141.
刘海洋,金晓玲,薛会雯,等.2012.珙桐的群落特征及种群生态学研究进展.中国农学通报,28(22):1-4.
柳晓燕,李俊生,赵彩云,等.2016.基于MAXENT模型和Arc GIS预测豚草在中国的潜在适生区.植物保护学报,43(6):1041-1048.
罗世家.2002.珙桐种子的解剖研究.湖北民族学院学报:自然科学版,20(4):18-19.
马宇飞,李俊清.2005.湖北七姊妹山珙桐种群结构研究.北京林业大学学报,27(3):12-16.
彭玉兰,胡运乾,孙航.2003.光叶珙桐的等位酶分析及其生物地理学意义.植物分类与资源学报,25(1):55-62.
宋丛文,包满珠.2004.利用RAPD标记对珙桐地理种群遗传分化的研究.林业科学研究,17(5):605-609.
苏智先,张素兰.1999.珙桐种群生殖物候及其影响因子研究.西华师范大学学报:自然科学版,20(4):313-318.
谭钰凡,左小清.2018.基于GIS与Maxent模型的金花茶潜在适生区与保护研究.热带亚热带植物学报,26(1):24-32.
王运生,谢丙炎,万方浩,等.2008.ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用.生物多样性,15(4):365-372.
吴刚,肖寒,李静,等.2000.珍稀濒危植物珙桐的生存与人为活动的关系.应用生态学报,11(4):493-496.
吴建国,吕佳佳.2009.气候变化对珙桐分布的潜在影响.环境科学研究,22(12):1371-1381.
徐军,曹博,白成科.2015.基于MaxEnt濒危植物独叶草的中国潜在适生分布区预测.生态学杂志,34(12):3354-3359.
禹玉婷,徐刚标,汪晓萍.2006.珙桐研究进展.经济林研究,24(4):92-94.
喻理飞.2002.贵州柏箐喀斯特台原区珙桐群落特征研究.贵州科学,20(3):44-47.
占玉燕,刘艳红,熊文娟.2010.珙桐濒危原因研究现状及展望.湖北林业科技,(1):41-43.
张路.2015.MAXENT最大熵模型在预测物种潜在分布范围方面的应用.生物学通报,50(11):9-12.
张海娟,陈勇,黄烈健,等.2011.基于生态位模型的薇甘菊在中国适生区的预测.农业工程学报,27(s1):413-418.
张家勋,李俊清,周宝顺,等.1995.珙桐的天然分布和人工引种分析.北京林业大学学报,17(1):25-30.
张清华,郭泉水,徐德应,等.2000.气候变化对我国珍稀濒危树种珙桐地理分布的影响研究.林业科学,36(2):47-52.
朱利君,苏智先,胡进耀,等.2006.珙桐群落种间关系的研究.广西植物,26(1):32-37.
Chikerema SM,Gwitira I,Murwira A,et al.2017.Comparison of GARP and Maxent in modelling the geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Zimbabwe.Zimbabwe Veterinary Journal,35:1-6.
Elith J,Phillips SJ,Hastie T,et al.2011.A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists.Diversity and Distributions,17:43-57.
Flory AR,Kumar S,Stohlgren TJ,et al.2012.Environmental conditions associated with bat white-nose syndrome mortality in the north-eastern United States.Journal of Applied Ecology,49:680-689.
Hanley JA,McNeil BJ.1982.The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Radiology,143:29-36.
Meynard CN,Quinn JF.2007.Predicting species distributions:A critical comparison of the most common statistical models using artificial species.Journal of Biogeography,34:1455-1469.
Moreno R,Zamora R,Molina JR,et al.2011.Predictive modeling of microhabitats for endemic birds in South Chilean temperate forests using maximum entropy(Maxent).Ecological Informatics,6:364-370.
Padalia H,Srivastava V,Kushwaha SPS.2014.Modeling potential invasion range of alien invasive species,Hyptis suaveolens(L.)Poit.in India:Comparison of MaxEnt and GARP.Ecological Informatics,22:36-43.
Pearson RG,Thuiller W,Araújo MB,et al.2006.Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction.Journal of Biogeography,33:1704-1711.
Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,Dudík M,et al.2017.Opening the black box:An open-source release of Maxent.Ecography,40:887-893.
Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,Schapire RE.2006.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.Ecological Modelling,190:231-259.
Phillips SJ,Dudík M.2008.Modeling of species distributions with Maxent:New extensions and a comprehensive evaluation.Ecography,31:161-175.
Tang CQ,Dong YF,Herrando-Moraira S,et al.2017.Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China.Scientific Reports,7:43822.
Xiao J,Xu W,Kang D,et al.2011.Nature reserve group planning for conservation of giant pandas in North Minshan,China.Journal for Nature Conservation,19:209-214.
Yackulic CB,Chandler R,Zipkin EF,et al.2013.Presenceonly modelling using MAXENT:When can we trust the inferences.Methods in Ecology&Evolution,4:236-243.
Yang XQ,Kushwaha SPS,Saran S,et al.2013.Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plant,Justicia adhatoda L.in Lesser Himalayan foothills.Ecological Engineering,51:83-87.