陕南人口与经济空间关系演变分析
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摘要
通过分析陕南人口与经济空间关系及格局演变,以期为陕南经济社会的可持续发展提供决策参考。采用不均衡指数、人口与经济地理集中度和人口经济一致性系数,利用Arc GIS 10.3软件,对陕南2000—2016年人口与经济空间关系演变进行分析。结果表明:(1) 2000—2016年,陕南人口与经济分布集聚趋势不显著,并且存在不协调发展现象;以2006年时间节点,2000—2006年呈现经济要素集聚为主,2007—2016年转变为人口要素集聚为主。(2)陕南各县区经济地理集中度逐年上升,集中分布趋势加强,相比陕南整体的人口与经济不均衡指数,各县区平均人口与经济地理集中度指数较大,集聚趋势更显著。(3)陕南人口与经济地理集中度地区差异明显,呈现"核心—外围"分布,以汉台区为例的市辖区集中程度显著增强,留坝县、佛坪县、宁陕县和镇坪县一直是经济分散区。(4)陕南人口与经济空间分布一致的区域范围缩小,人口集聚略高于经济集聚的区域范围增加,人口与经济地理集中度高值区出现分离。陕南人口与经济不一致发展趋势明显,将在一定程度上对陕南人口、经济、环境可持续发展起制约作用。为了促进陕南经济社会的健康、可持续发展,在大力发展经济的同时,还需注意人口增长、经济发展与土地利用和生态环境之间协调可持续的发展关系。
By analyzing the relationship between the population and economy in southern Shaanxi and the evolution of the correlation pattern,this paper provides a reference viewpoint for the sustainable development of economy and society in southern Shaanxi. Using the imbalance index,population and economic geography concentration and population economic consistency coefficient,we analyzed the evolution of population and economic spatial relationship in southern Shaanxi from 2000 to 2016 using the ArcGIS 10.3 software. Our results are the following.( 1)From 2000 to 2016,the trend of population and economic distribution changes in southern Shaanxi was not significant,and there was an uncoordinated development phenomenon discovered. In 2006,the time node was the main cluster of economic factors from 2000 to 2006,and it was transformed from 2007 to 2016. The population elements were mainly concentrated.( 2) The economic geographical concentration of counties and districts in southern Shaanxi has monotonically increased year by year,and the trend of the concentrated distribution has been strengthened. Compared to the overall population and economic disparity index in southern Shaanxi,the average population and economic geography concentration index of each county has a larger value.( 3) The geographical distribution of the population and economic geography in southern Shaanxi was markedly different,showing the existence of a"core-periphery"distribution. The concentration of the municipal districts in Hantai district is significantly enhanced. Liuba county,Foping county,Ningshan county and Zhenping county have always been economically dispersed areas.( 4) The regions of the population and economic spatial distribution in southern Shaanxi were narrowly distributed,with the area of population agglomeration slightly higher than that of economic agglomeration,and the population with high concentrations separated from the economic geographical concentration. The inconsistent development trend of population and economy in southern Shaanxi is apparent,which will restrict the sustainable development of population,economy and environment in southern Shaanxi to a certain extent. In order to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the economic and social development in southern Shaanxi,while vigorously developing the economy,it is necessary to pay adequate attention to the coordinated and sustainable development relationship among the population growth,economic development,land use,and ecological environment.
By analyzing the relationship between the population and economy in southern Shaanxi and the evolution of the correlation pattern,this paper provides a reference viewpoint for the sustainable development of economy and society in southern Shaanxi. Using the imbalance index,population and economic geography concentration and population economic consistency coefficient,we analyzed the evolution of population and economic spatial relationship in southern Shaanxi from 2000 to 2016 using the ArcGIS 10.3 software. Our results are the following.( 1)From 2000 to 2016,the trend of population and economic distribution changes in southern Shaanxi was not significant,and there was an uncoordinated development phenomenon discovered. In 2006,the time node was the main cluster of economic factors from 2000 to 2006,and it was transformed from 2007 to 2016. The population elements were mainly concentrated.( 2) The economic geographical concentration of counties and districts in southern Shaanxi has monotonically increased year by year,and the trend of the concentrated distribution has been strengthened. Compared to the overall population and economic disparity index in southern Shaanxi,the average population and economic geography concentration index of each county has a larger value.( 3) The geographical distribution of the population and economic geography in southern Shaanxi was markedly different,showing the existence of a"core-periphery"distribution. The concentration of the municipal districts in Hantai district is significantly enhanced. Liuba county,Foping county,Ningshan county and Zhenping county have always been economically dispersed areas.( 4) The regions of the population and economic spatial distribution in southern Shaanxi were narrowly distributed,with the area of population agglomeration slightly higher than that of economic agglomeration,and the population with high concentrations separated from the economic geographical concentration. The inconsistent development trend of population and economy in southern Shaanxi is apparent,which will restrict the sustainable development of population,economy and environment in southern Shaanxi to a certain extent. In order to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the economic and social development in southern Shaanxi,while vigorously developing the economy,it is necessary to pay adequate attention to the coordinated and sustainable development relationship among the population growth,economic development,land use,and ecological environment.
引文
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[19]仲俊涛,米文宝,候景伟,等.改革开放以来宁夏区域差异与空间格局研究-基于人口、经济和粮食重心的演变特征及耦合关系[J].经济地理,2014,34(5):14-20.
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[22]鲁彦,文琦,夏四友,等.宁夏人口与经济分布的地域差异及其格局演变研究[J].生态经济,2017,33(10):106-110.
[2]夏四友,文琦,赵媛,等.榆林市人口与经济空间关系及格局演变实证研究[J].农业现代化研究,2017,38(6):1067-1074.
[3]王国霞,秦志琴.山西省人口与经济空间关系变化研究[J].经济地理,2013,33(4):29-35.
[4]张车伟,蔡翼飞.人口与经济分布匹配视角下的中国区域均衡发展[J].人口研究,2013,37(6):3-16.
[5]廉晓梅,吴金华.东北地区人口与经济空间格局演变分析[J].人口学刊,2018(227):45-55.
[6]封志明,刘晓娜.中国人口分布与经济发展空间一致性研究[J].人口与经济,2013(2):3-11.
[7]周艳,涂建军,卢德彬,等.重庆市人口与经济空间分布关系及其变化研究[J].经济地理,2011,31(11):1781-1785.
[8]官冬杰,谭静,张梦婕,等.重庆市人口与经济发展空间耦合分布研究[J].人文地理,2017(2):122-128.
[9]刘娜,石培基,李博.甘肃省人口经济空间分异与关联研究[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(1):179-187.
[10]宾津佑,唐小兵,李民,等.湖南省县域人口与经济发展空间耦合分布研究[J].湖南师范大学自然科学学报,2018,41(3):1-8.
[11]向云波,赵严.长江中游城市群人口与经济空间分布关系研究[J].云南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015,47(4):88-94.
[12]吴连霞,赵媛,马定国,等.江西省人口与经济发展时空耦合研究[J].地理科学,2015,35(6):742-748.
[13]王璐,黄晓燕,曹小曙,等.贫困山区不同层级可达性及其经济效应-以秦巴山区为例[J].经济地理,2016,36(1):156-164.
[14]周亮,徐建刚,林蔚,等.秦巴山连片特困区地形起伏与人口及经济关系[J].山地学报,2015,33(6):742-750.
[15]石育中,杨新军,王婷.陕南秦巴山区可持续生计安全评价及其鲁棒性分析[J].地理研究,2016,35(12):2309-2321.
[16]陈勇,茆长宝.西部山地灾害多发区人口容量及其迁移区划-以陕南三市28县为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(11):51-59.
[17]陕西省统计局.陕西省统计年鉴[Z].北京:中国统计出版社,2001-2017.
[18]刘永伟,闫庆武,黄珊,等.江苏省人口分布的时空动态分析[J].测绘科学,2015,40(3):30-35.
[19]仲俊涛,米文宝,候景伟,等.改革开放以来宁夏区域差异与空间格局研究-基于人口、经济和粮食重心的演变特征及耦合关系[J].经济地理,2014,34(5):14-20.
[20]唐萍萍,胡仪元.陕南生态移民土地经营权转让意愿及其影响因素研究———以汉中市为例[J].中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(5):98-103.
[21]刘楠,谢永生,索改弟,等.基于ESDA的陕西省县域经济空间格局演变[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(3):73-78.
[22]鲁彦,文琦,夏四友,等.宁夏人口与经济分布的地域差异及其格局演变研究[J].生态经济,2017,33(10):106-110.