人类活动对外来入侵植物黄花刺茄在新疆潜在分布的影响
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摘要
明确区域尺度上外来入侵植物的潜在分布格局及入侵风险区对入侵种的预防和控制具有重要意义。以国家重点管理外来入侵物种黄花刺茄(Solanum rostratum Dunal)为研究对象,以其扩散蔓延的新疆地区为研究区域,基于生物气候、土壤、地形等60个自然环境因子和人类活动强度因子,应用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术分别构建了现代气候情景及人类活动干扰下的黄花刺茄适宜生境预测模型,分析探讨了人类活动及自然环境因子对黄花刺茄空间分布的影响。结果表明:人类活动干扰下的训练集和测试集的AUC值均大于无人类活动干扰的AUC值,无人类活动干扰下黄花刺茄在新疆的总适生面积为327784.36 km~2,人类活动干扰下总适生面积为445619.96 km~2;阿勒泰地区北部、塔城中部和南部、博州中部和东部、伊犁州中部、克州西部、五家渠市、阜康市、玛纳斯县、呼图壁县为高危入侵风险区;影响黄花刺茄潜在分布的主导变量为年降雨量、人类活动强度、海拔、下层土沙含量、降雨量的季节性变化和年平均温,黄花刺茄在新疆的扩散与人类活动强度呈正相关;黄花刺茄在新疆的分布未达到饱和且处于逐步扩散态势,呈现以昌吉州和乌鲁木齐市为中心,向天山以北和新疆以西的区域辐射状扩散。
Studying the potential distribution and risk area of alien invasive species is very important to prevent and control the expansion of these species. As alien invasive species Solanum rostratum Dunal is spreading rapidly in Xinjiang,this study took S. rostratum as object,and based on 60 human activity intensity and environmental factors including biological climate,soil,and topography,used the Maximum Entropy Model and ArcGIS Spatial Analysis to construct a suitablehabitat prediction model for S. rostratum under the influence of modern climate scenarios and human activities,and analyzed the influences of human activities and natural environmental factors. The result shows that the AUC value of the test set under human activity interference is greater than that with no human activity interference. The total suitable area of S.rostratum in Xinjiang without interference from human activities is 327784. 36 km~2 and under interference from human activities it is 445619.96 km~2. The North Altay region,central and southern Tacheng,central and eastern Bozhou,central Yili,western Kezhou,Wujiaqu,Fukang,Manas,and Hutubi are high-risk areas. The dominant variables influencing the potential distribution of S. rostratum are the rainfall in the driest season,human activities,elevation,average temperature of the wettest season,the content of the lower soil sediment,annual rainfall,and temperature. The proliferation of S. rostratum in Xinjiang is positively correlated with the intensity of human activities. The distribution of S. rostratum in Xinjiang has not reached saturation and is gradually spreading; with Changji and Urumqi as the center,it currently spreads radially to north of Tianshan and west of Xinjiang.
Studying the potential distribution and risk area of alien invasive species is very important to prevent and control the expansion of these species. As alien invasive species Solanum rostratum Dunal is spreading rapidly in Xinjiang,this study took S. rostratum as object,and based on 60 human activity intensity and environmental factors including biological climate,soil,and topography,used the Maximum Entropy Model and ArcGIS Spatial Analysis to construct a suitablehabitat prediction model for S. rostratum under the influence of modern climate scenarios and human activities,and analyzed the influences of human activities and natural environmental factors. The result shows that the AUC value of the test set under human activity interference is greater than that with no human activity interference. The total suitable area of S.rostratum in Xinjiang without interference from human activities is 327784. 36 km~2 and under interference from human activities it is 445619.96 km~2. The North Altay region,central and southern Tacheng,central and eastern Bozhou,central Yili,western Kezhou,Wujiaqu,Fukang,Manas,and Hutubi are high-risk areas. The dominant variables influencing the potential distribution of S. rostratum are the rainfall in the driest season,human activities,elevation,average temperature of the wettest season,the content of the lower soil sediment,annual rainfall,and temperature. The proliferation of S. rostratum in Xinjiang is positively correlated with the intensity of human activities. The distribution of S. rostratum in Xinjiang has not reached saturation and is gradually spreading; with Changji and Urumqi as the center,it currently spreads radially to north of Tianshan and west of Xinjiang.
引文
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[21] Yang X Q,Kushwaha S P S,Saran S,Xu J C,Roy P S. Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plant,Justicia adhatoda L. in Lesser Himalayan foothills. Ecological Engineering,2013,51:83-87.
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[23] Padalia H,Srivastava V,Kushwaha S P S. Modeling potential invasion range of alien invasive species,Hyptis suaveolens(L.)Poit. in India:Comparison of MaxEnt and GARP. Ecological Informatics,2014,22:36-43.
[24] Ha H,Heumann B W,Liesch M,Wang X G. Modelling potential conservation easement locations using physical and socio-economic factors:A case-study from south-east Michigan. Applied Geography,2016,75:104-115.
[25] Vinod P N,Chandramouli P N,Koch M. Estimation of nitrate leaching in groundwater in an agriculturally used area in the state Karnataka,India,using existing Model and GIS. Aquatic Procedia,2015,4:1047-1053.
[26] Glon H E,Heumann B W,Carter J R,Bartek J M,Monfils A K. The contribution of small collections to species distribution modelling:A case study from Fuireneae(Cyperaceae). Ecological Informatics,2017,42:67-78.
[27] Al-Kindi K M,Kwan P,Andrew N R,Welch M. Modelling spatiotemporal patterns of dubas bug infestations on date palms in northern Oman:A geographical information system case study. Crop Protection,2017,93:113-121.
[28] Park J H,Kim J,Yoon D K,Cho G H. The influence of Korea's green parking project on the thermal environment of a residential street. Habitat International,2016,56:181-190.
[29]宗敏,韩广轩,栗云召,王光镇,王安东,杨显基.基于MaxEnt模型的黄河三角洲滨海湿地优势植物群落潜在分布模拟.应用生态学报,2017,28(6):1833-1842.
[30]王茹琳,李庆,封传红,石朝鹏.基于MaxEnt的西藏飞蝗在中国的适生区预测.生态学报,2017,37(24):8556-8566.
[31]王茹琳,李庆,何仕松,刘原.中华猕猴桃在中国潜在分布及其对气候变化响应的研究.中国生态农业学报,2018,26(1):27-37.
[32]张东方,张琴,郭杰,孙成忠,吴杰,聂祥,谢彩香.基于MaxEnt模型的当归全球生态适宜区和生态特征研究.生态学报,2017,37(15):5111-5120.
[33]邵云玲,曹伟.外来入侵植物豚草在中国东北潜在分布区预测.干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(7):172-176.
[34]张颖.基于GIS的生态位模型预测源自北美的菊科入侵物种的潜在适生区[D].南京:南京农业大学,2011.
[35]李丽鹤,刘会玉,林振山,贾俊鹤,刘翔.基于MAXENT和ZONATION的加拿大一枝黄花入侵重点监控区确定.生态学报,2017,37(9):3124-3132.
[36]王国欢,白帆,桑卫国.中国外来入侵生物的空间分布格局及其影响因素.植物科学学报,2017,35(4):513-524.
[37]钟艮平,沈文君,万方浩,王进军.用GARP生态位模型预测刺萼龙葵在中国的潜在分布区.生态学杂志,2009,28(1):162-166.
[38]郭章碧,张国良,付卫东,郑浩.外来入侵植物刺萼龙葵的研究概况及展望.山东农业大学学报:自然科学版,2011,42(3):460-464.
[39]吴晓雯,罗晶,陈家宽,李博.中国外来入侵植物的分布格局及其与环境因子和人类活动的关系.植物生态学报,2006,30(4):576-584.
[40]易小燕.外来入侵植物的扩散路径与入侵风险管理研究[D].南京:南京农业大学,2008.
[41]王苏铭,张楠,于琳倩,赵容慧,郝鹏,李景文,姜英淑,沙海峰,刘义,张志翔.北京地区外来入侵植物分布特征及其影响因素.生态学报,2012,32(15):4618-4629.
[2]周明冬,刘淑华,符桂华,周泽容.有害入侵生物刺萼龙葵在新疆的分布、危害与防治.新疆农业科技,2009,(1):56-56.
[3]魏守辉,杨龙.刺萼龙葵—国家重点管理外来入侵物种.植物保护,2013,39(3):123-123.
[4]王晓红.外来物种——刺萼龙葵的生物学特性、危害及防治.新疆畜牧业,2011,(7):63-63.
[5]向俊,李翠妮,刘全儒,周云龙,孙乐,毛春明,梁前进.北京外来入侵植物刺萼龙葵的生态状况.生态学杂志,2011,30(3):453-458.
[6]董河鱼.外来入侵植物黄花刺茄研究文献统计分析.内蒙古师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2015,44(4):167-168,171-171.
[7]王立勇.外来有害杂草刺萼龙葵在朝阳市的发生与防控对策.现代农村科技,2011,(20):27-27.
[8]张延菊,曲波,董淑萍,董文轩.警惕外来入侵植物——刺萼龙葵在辽宁省进一步蔓延.辽宁林业科技,2009,(6):22-24,47-47.
[9]宋珍珍.两种入侵植物在新疆的分布、群落特点及对物种多样性的影响[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2012.
[10]邱娟,地里努尔獉沙里木,谭敦炎.入侵植物黄花刺茄在新疆不同生境中的繁殖特性.生物多样性,2013,21(5):590-600.
[11]地里努尔·沙里木.黄花刺茄的传粉生物学及种子萌发特性[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2011.
[12]林玉,谭敦炎.一种潜在的外来入侵植物:黄花刺茄.植物分类学报,2007,45(5):675-685.
[13]阿马努拉·依明尼亚孜.黄花刺茄入侵对马铃薯甲虫的分布、生活史及习性的影响[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2015.
[14]兰希平.辽宁省外来植物刺萼龙葵的入侵警报及防控对策.河北农业科学,2012,16(8):25-27.
[15]柳晓燕,李俊生,赵彩云,全占军,赵相健,宫璐.基于MAXENT模型和ArcGIS预测豚草在中国的潜在适生区.植物保护学报,2016,43(6):1041-1048.
[16]刘艳,阿提古丽·毛拉,沙毕热木·斯热义力,买买提明·苏来曼.气候变化下耐旱藓类连轴藓属在新疆的分布模拟.西北植物学报,2017,37(9):1881-1887.
[17]迈迪娜·吐尔逊.意大利苍耳在新疆的适生区分析研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学,2017.
[18] Bjornlie D D,Thompson D J,Haroldson M A,Schwartz C C,Gunther K A,Cain S L,Tyers D B,Frey K L,Aber B C. Methods to estimate distribution and range extent of grizzly bears in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem. Wildlife Society Bulletin,2014,38(1):182-187.
[19] Worthington T A,Zhang T J,Logue D R,Mittelstet A R,Brewer S K. Landscape and flow metrics affecting the distribution of a federallythreatened fish:Improving management,model fit,and model transferability. Ecological Modelling,2016,342:1-18.
[20]张殷波,高晨虹,秦浩.山西翅果油树的适生区预测及其对气候变化的响应.应用生态学报,2018,29(4):1156-1162.
[21] Yang X Q,Kushwaha S P S,Saran S,Xu J C,Roy P S. Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plant,Justicia adhatoda L. in Lesser Himalayan foothills. Ecological Engineering,2013,51:83-87.
[22] Phillips S J,Dudík M. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent:new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography,2008,31(2):161-175.
[23] Padalia H,Srivastava V,Kushwaha S P S. Modeling potential invasion range of alien invasive species,Hyptis suaveolens(L.)Poit. in India:Comparison of MaxEnt and GARP. Ecological Informatics,2014,22:36-43.
[24] Ha H,Heumann B W,Liesch M,Wang X G. Modelling potential conservation easement locations using physical and socio-economic factors:A case-study from south-east Michigan. Applied Geography,2016,75:104-115.
[25] Vinod P N,Chandramouli P N,Koch M. Estimation of nitrate leaching in groundwater in an agriculturally used area in the state Karnataka,India,using existing Model and GIS. Aquatic Procedia,2015,4:1047-1053.
[26] Glon H E,Heumann B W,Carter J R,Bartek J M,Monfils A K. The contribution of small collections to species distribution modelling:A case study from Fuireneae(Cyperaceae). Ecological Informatics,2017,42:67-78.
[27] Al-Kindi K M,Kwan P,Andrew N R,Welch M. Modelling spatiotemporal patterns of dubas bug infestations on date palms in northern Oman:A geographical information system case study. Crop Protection,2017,93:113-121.
[28] Park J H,Kim J,Yoon D K,Cho G H. The influence of Korea's green parking project on the thermal environment of a residential street. Habitat International,2016,56:181-190.
[29]宗敏,韩广轩,栗云召,王光镇,王安东,杨显基.基于MaxEnt模型的黄河三角洲滨海湿地优势植物群落潜在分布模拟.应用生态学报,2017,28(6):1833-1842.
[30]王茹琳,李庆,封传红,石朝鹏.基于MaxEnt的西藏飞蝗在中国的适生区预测.生态学报,2017,37(24):8556-8566.
[31]王茹琳,李庆,何仕松,刘原.中华猕猴桃在中国潜在分布及其对气候变化响应的研究.中国生态农业学报,2018,26(1):27-37.
[32]张东方,张琴,郭杰,孙成忠,吴杰,聂祥,谢彩香.基于MaxEnt模型的当归全球生态适宜区和生态特征研究.生态学报,2017,37(15):5111-5120.
[33]邵云玲,曹伟.外来入侵植物豚草在中国东北潜在分布区预测.干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(7):172-176.
[34]张颖.基于GIS的生态位模型预测源自北美的菊科入侵物种的潜在适生区[D].南京:南京农业大学,2011.
[35]李丽鹤,刘会玉,林振山,贾俊鹤,刘翔.基于MAXENT和ZONATION的加拿大一枝黄花入侵重点监控区确定.生态学报,2017,37(9):3124-3132.
[36]王国欢,白帆,桑卫国.中国外来入侵生物的空间分布格局及其影响因素.植物科学学报,2017,35(4):513-524.
[37]钟艮平,沈文君,万方浩,王进军.用GARP生态位模型预测刺萼龙葵在中国的潜在分布区.生态学杂志,2009,28(1):162-166.
[38]郭章碧,张国良,付卫东,郑浩.外来入侵植物刺萼龙葵的研究概况及展望.山东农业大学学报:自然科学版,2011,42(3):460-464.
[39]吴晓雯,罗晶,陈家宽,李博.中国外来入侵植物的分布格局及其与环境因子和人类活动的关系.植物生态学报,2006,30(4):576-584.
[40]易小燕.外来入侵植物的扩散路径与入侵风险管理研究[D].南京:南京农业大学,2008.
[41]王苏铭,张楠,于琳倩,赵容慧,郝鹏,李景文,姜英淑,沙海峰,刘义,张志翔.北京地区外来入侵植物分布特征及其影响因素.生态学报,2012,32(15):4618-4629.
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