风电爬坡事件多级区间预警方法
|
摘要
大规模风电爬坡事件对电力系统功率平衡问题影响显著,严重时可能导致停电事故。基于区间分析理论,提出了一种风电爬坡事件多级预警方法,对可能造成的危害程度进行预先警告。考虑风电爬坡预测研究现状,采用区间数形式对其不确定性进行描述;针对风电爬坡事件强波动性对电力系统功率控制的影响,以维持静态频率偏差在允许范围内为前提,分析采用不同功率控制措施满足功率平衡所对应的风电爬坡幅度允许区间;确定各等级预警区间的预警界限,并利用区间排序方法计算各预警区间的概率,实现多级预警。算例仿真分析及比较结果表明,所述方法能够给出各级预警区间的界限值及概率分布,物理意义明确,且简便快速,利于实时滚动运行,体现了有效性和实用性。
Large-scale wind power ramp events(WPRE)have a significant impact on the power balance of power system and may lead to load shedding in severe cases.Interval analysis method is introduced to establish a multi-level early warning method for WPRE,by which the warning information can be provided to reflect the degree of potential harm inflicted by WPRE.According to the characteristics of WPRE,the number of intervals is introduced to describe the uncertainty of wind power.In view of the impact of large volatility of WPRE on power control and with the static frequency deviation maintained within the allowable range as precondition,the permissible intervals of ramping amplitude are analyzed to determine the boundaries between different warning levels corresponding to different power control measures.Comparison of the boundaries with the prediction results of wind power,multi-level early warning for WPRE shows that the interval ranking method can provide the probability distributions of different warning levels.Simulation results and comparative analysis demonstrate that,both the boundaries and probability distributions of different warning levels,with clear physical meaning,can be provided by the simple and rapid method beneficial to real-time scrolling operation and testifying to the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.
Large-scale wind power ramp events(WPRE)have a significant impact on the power balance of power system and may lead to load shedding in severe cases.Interval analysis method is introduced to establish a multi-level early warning method for WPRE,by which the warning information can be provided to reflect the degree of potential harm inflicted by WPRE.According to the characteristics of WPRE,the number of intervals is introduced to describe the uncertainty of wind power.In view of the impact of large volatility of WPRE on power control and with the static frequency deviation maintained within the allowable range as precondition,the permissible intervals of ramping amplitude are analyzed to determine the boundaries between different warning levels corresponding to different power control measures.Comparison of the boundaries with the prediction results of wind power,multi-level early warning for WPRE shows that the interval ranking method can provide the probability distributions of different warning levels.Simulation results and comparative analysis demonstrate that,both the boundaries and probability distributions of different warning levels,with clear physical meaning,can be provided by the simple and rapid method beneficial to real-time scrolling operation and testifying to the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.
引文
[1]CUTLER N,KAY M,JACKA K,et al.Detecting,categorizing and forecasting large ramps in wind farm power output using meteorological observations and WPPT[J].Wind Energy,2007,10(5):453-470.
[2]FREEDMAN J,MARKUS M,PENC R.Analysis of West Texas wind plant ramp-up and ramp-down events[R].New York,USA:AWS Truewind,2008.
[3]KAMATH C.Using simple statistical analysis of historical data to understand wind ramp events[R].Livermore,CA,USA:Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,2010.
[4]LI Jinchao,LI Jinying.Electric power supply and demand early warning based on PCA and SVM method[C]//The 2nd International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing(ICICIP),July 25-28,2011,Harbin,China:1119-1123.
[5]牟涛,夏清,康重庆.电力供需预警指标筛选办法研究[J].电力自动化设备,2008,28(8):23-27.MU Tao,XIA Qing,KANG Chongqing.Screening method for warning indicators of power supply and demand[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2008,28(8):23-27.
[6]刘文博,张伯明,吴文传,等.在线静态电压稳定预警与预防控制系统[J].电网技术,2008,32(17):6-11.LIU Wenbo,ZHANG Boming,WU Wenchuan,et al.An online early warning and preventive control system for static voltage stability[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(17):6-11.
[7]郭庆来,王蓓,宁文元,等.华北电网自动电压控制与静态电压稳定预警系统应用[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(5):95-98.GUO Qinglai,WANG Bei,NING Wenyuan,et al.Applications of automatic voltage control system in North China power grid[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2008,32(5):95-98.
[8]GALLEGO-CASTILLO C,CUERVA-TEJERO A,LOPEZ-GARCIA O.A review on the recent history of wind power ramp forecasting[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,52:1148-1157.
[9]王伟胜,范高锋,赵海翔.风电场并网技术规定比较及其综合控制系统初探[J].电网技术,2007,31(18):73-77.WANG Weisheng,FAN Gaofeng,ZHAO Haixiang.Comparison of technical regulations for connecting wind farm to power grid and preliminary research on its integrated control system[J].Power System Technology,2007,31(18):73-77.
[10]罗旭,马珂.美国德克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会在风电调度运行管理方面的经验和启示[J].电网技术,2011,35(10):140-146.LUO Xu,MA Ke.Experience and enlightenment in operations of wind generation in ERCOT grid[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(10):140-146.
[11]CUI M,KE D,GAN D,et al.Statistical scenarios forecasting method for wind power ramp events using modified neural networks[J].Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy,2015,3(3):371-380.
[12]郁琛,薛禹胜,文福拴,等.风电功率预测误差的风险评估[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(7):52-58.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20141218006.YU Chen,XUE Yusheng,WEN Fushuan,et al.Risk assessment of wind power prediction errors[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(7):52-58.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20141218006.
[13]ZACK J W,YOUNG S,COTE M,et al.Development and testing of an innovative short-term large wind ramp forecasting system[C]//Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition,April 20-23,2010,Warsaw,Poland.
[14]SEVLIAN R,RAJAGOPAL R.Detection and Statistics of Wind Power Ramps[J].IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2013,28(4):3610-3620.
[15]张鹏,王守相.电力系统可靠性经济评估的区间分析方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(2):71-77.ZHANG Peng,WANG Shouxiang.Novel interval methods in power system reliability economics[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2004,24(2):71-77.
[16]丁涛,郭庆来,柏瑞,等.考虑风电不确定性的区间经济调度模型及空间分支定界法[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(22):3707-3714.DING Tao,GUO Qinglai,BO Rui,et al.Interval economic dispatch model with uncertain wind power injection and spatial branch and bound method[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(22):3707-3714.
[17]汪超群,韦化,鲍海波,等.基于区间不确定性的约束潮流[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(20):72-77.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20141209008.WANG Chaoqun,WEI Hua,BAO Haibo,et al.Constrained power flow based on interval uncertainty[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(20):72-77.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20141209008.
[18]ZHANG J,LU C,SONG J,et al.Real-time AGC dispatch units considering wind power and ramping capacity of thermal units[J].Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy,2015,3(3):1-8.
[19]FABBRI A,ROMAN T G S,ABBAD J R,et al.Assessment of the cost associated with wind generation prediction errors in a liberalized electricity market[J].IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2005,20(3):1440-1446.
[20]刘芳,潘毅,刘辉,等.风电功率预测误差分段指数分布模型[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(18):14-19.LIU Fang,PAN Yi,LIU Hui,et al.Piecewise exponential distribution model of wind power forecasting error[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(18):14-19.
[21]薛志英,周明,李庚银.大规模风电接入电力系统备用决策评述[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(4):148-155.XUE Zhiying,ZHOU Ming,LI Gengyin.Survey on reserve decision of power systems with large scale wind power integration[J].Power System Protection and Control,2013,41(4):148-155.
[22]刘立阳,吴军基,孟绍良.短期风电功率预测误差分布研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(12):65-70.LIU Liyang,WU Junji,MENG Zhaoliang.Research on error distribution of short-term wind power prediction[J].Power System Protection and Control,2013,41(12):65-70.
[23]叶林,任成,赵永宁,等.超短期风电功率预测误差数值特性分层分析方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(3):692-700.YE Lin,REN Cheng,ZHAO Yongning,et al.Stratification analysis approach of numerical characteristics for ultra-shortterm wind power forecasting error[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(3):692-700.
[24]KAZARLIS S A,BAKIRTZIS A G,PETRIDIS V.A genetic algorithm solution to the unit commitment problem[J].IEEETrans on Power Systems,1996,11(1):83-92.
[25]KUMAR N,PANIGRAHI B K,SINGH B.A solution to the ramp rate and prohibited operating zone constrained unit commitment by GHS-JGT evolutionary algorithm[J].International Journal of Electrical Power&Energy Systems,2016(81):193-203.
[26]李文沅.电力系统风险评估(模型、方法及应用)[M].北京:科学出版社,2006:267-272.
[27]颜拥,文福拴,杨首晖,等.考虑风电出力波动性的发电调度[J].电力系统自动化,2010,34(6):79-88.YAN Yong,WEN Fushuan,YANG Shouhui,et al.Generation scheduling with fluctuating wind power[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2010,34(6):79-88.
[2]FREEDMAN J,MARKUS M,PENC R.Analysis of West Texas wind plant ramp-up and ramp-down events[R].New York,USA:AWS Truewind,2008.
[3]KAMATH C.Using simple statistical analysis of historical data to understand wind ramp events[R].Livermore,CA,USA:Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,2010.
[4]LI Jinchao,LI Jinying.Electric power supply and demand early warning based on PCA and SVM method[C]//The 2nd International Conference on Intelligent Control and Information Processing(ICICIP),July 25-28,2011,Harbin,China:1119-1123.
[5]牟涛,夏清,康重庆.电力供需预警指标筛选办法研究[J].电力自动化设备,2008,28(8):23-27.MU Tao,XIA Qing,KANG Chongqing.Screening method for warning indicators of power supply and demand[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2008,28(8):23-27.
[6]刘文博,张伯明,吴文传,等.在线静态电压稳定预警与预防控制系统[J].电网技术,2008,32(17):6-11.LIU Wenbo,ZHANG Boming,WU Wenchuan,et al.An online early warning and preventive control system for static voltage stability[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(17):6-11.
[7]郭庆来,王蓓,宁文元,等.华北电网自动电压控制与静态电压稳定预警系统应用[J].电力系统自动化,2008,32(5):95-98.GUO Qinglai,WANG Bei,NING Wenyuan,et al.Applications of automatic voltage control system in North China power grid[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2008,32(5):95-98.
[8]GALLEGO-CASTILLO C,CUERVA-TEJERO A,LOPEZ-GARCIA O.A review on the recent history of wind power ramp forecasting[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,52:1148-1157.
[9]王伟胜,范高锋,赵海翔.风电场并网技术规定比较及其综合控制系统初探[J].电网技术,2007,31(18):73-77.WANG Weisheng,FAN Gaofeng,ZHAO Haixiang.Comparison of technical regulations for connecting wind farm to power grid and preliminary research on its integrated control system[J].Power System Technology,2007,31(18):73-77.
[10]罗旭,马珂.美国德克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会在风电调度运行管理方面的经验和启示[J].电网技术,2011,35(10):140-146.LUO Xu,MA Ke.Experience and enlightenment in operations of wind generation in ERCOT grid[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(10):140-146.
[11]CUI M,KE D,GAN D,et al.Statistical scenarios forecasting method for wind power ramp events using modified neural networks[J].Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy,2015,3(3):371-380.
[12]郁琛,薛禹胜,文福拴,等.风电功率预测误差的风险评估[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(7):52-58.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20141218006.YU Chen,XUE Yusheng,WEN Fushuan,et al.Risk assessment of wind power prediction errors[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(7):52-58.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20141218006.
[13]ZACK J W,YOUNG S,COTE M,et al.Development and testing of an innovative short-term large wind ramp forecasting system[C]//Proceedings of the European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition,April 20-23,2010,Warsaw,Poland.
[14]SEVLIAN R,RAJAGOPAL R.Detection and Statistics of Wind Power Ramps[J].IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2013,28(4):3610-3620.
[15]张鹏,王守相.电力系统可靠性经济评估的区间分析方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(2):71-77.ZHANG Peng,WANG Shouxiang.Novel interval methods in power system reliability economics[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2004,24(2):71-77.
[16]丁涛,郭庆来,柏瑞,等.考虑风电不确定性的区间经济调度模型及空间分支定界法[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(22):3707-3714.DING Tao,GUO Qinglai,BO Rui,et al.Interval economic dispatch model with uncertain wind power injection and spatial branch and bound method[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(22):3707-3714.
[17]汪超群,韦化,鲍海波,等.基于区间不确定性的约束潮流[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(20):72-77.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20141209008.WANG Chaoqun,WEI Hua,BAO Haibo,et al.Constrained power flow based on interval uncertainty[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(20):72-77.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20141209008.
[18]ZHANG J,LU C,SONG J,et al.Real-time AGC dispatch units considering wind power and ramping capacity of thermal units[J].Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy,2015,3(3):1-8.
[19]FABBRI A,ROMAN T G S,ABBAD J R,et al.Assessment of the cost associated with wind generation prediction errors in a liberalized electricity market[J].IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2005,20(3):1440-1446.
[20]刘芳,潘毅,刘辉,等.风电功率预测误差分段指数分布模型[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(18):14-19.LIU Fang,PAN Yi,LIU Hui,et al.Piecewise exponential distribution model of wind power forecasting error[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(18):14-19.
[21]薛志英,周明,李庚银.大规模风电接入电力系统备用决策评述[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(4):148-155.XUE Zhiying,ZHOU Ming,LI Gengyin.Survey on reserve decision of power systems with large scale wind power integration[J].Power System Protection and Control,2013,41(4):148-155.
[22]刘立阳,吴军基,孟绍良.短期风电功率预测误差分布研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(12):65-70.LIU Liyang,WU Junji,MENG Zhaoliang.Research on error distribution of short-term wind power prediction[J].Power System Protection and Control,2013,41(12):65-70.
[23]叶林,任成,赵永宁,等.超短期风电功率预测误差数值特性分层分析方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(3):692-700.YE Lin,REN Cheng,ZHAO Yongning,et al.Stratification analysis approach of numerical characteristics for ultra-shortterm wind power forecasting error[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(3):692-700.
[24]KAZARLIS S A,BAKIRTZIS A G,PETRIDIS V.A genetic algorithm solution to the unit commitment problem[J].IEEETrans on Power Systems,1996,11(1):83-92.
[25]KUMAR N,PANIGRAHI B K,SINGH B.A solution to the ramp rate and prohibited operating zone constrained unit commitment by GHS-JGT evolutionary algorithm[J].International Journal of Electrical Power&Energy Systems,2016(81):193-203.
[26]李文沅.电力系统风险评估(模型、方法及应用)[M].北京:科学出版社,2006:267-272.
[27]颜拥,文福拴,杨首晖,等.考虑风电出力波动性的发电调度[J].电力系统自动化,2010,34(6):79-88.YAN Yong,WEN Fushuan,YANG Shouhui,et al.Generation scheduling with fluctuating wind power[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2010,34(6):79-88.