广西住房空置率与金融风险关系研究
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摘要
我国房地产业一直处于非理性繁荣状态,在全国房地产业迅猛发展的同时,住房空置问题也日益凸显,住房空置问题在国内学术界和政届一直争议不断,目前,房地产市场存在一种"不合理"现象,住房空置率高的情况下,房价也居高不下。而且房地产贷款占我国商业银行贷款的绝大部分,一旦房地产泡沫破灭,房价下跌,房子作为银行抵押物的价值也会降低,房地产商若无力偿还银行贷款,将转为不良贷款,导致银行不良贷款率增加,直接产生银行信贷风险,与房地产相关联的金融机构以及其他产业都将被牢牢套住,最终导致金融市场的系统性风险爆发。本文通过房地产统计年鉴和国家统计局收集到广西房地产相关数据,从房价与银行信贷的角度,分析广西全区住房空置与房地产金融风险的传导机制,并提出相应的政策建议,保证房地产市场的安全运行。
China's real estate industry has been in a state of irrational prosperity. At the same time as the rapid development of the real estate industry in the country, the problem of housing vacancy has become increasingly prominent. The problem of housing vacancy has been controversial in domestic academic circles and political circles. At present, there is a kind of unreasonable phenomenon in real estate market, that is housing prices are also high when housing vacancy rates are high. Moreover, real estate loans account for the vast majority of China's commercial bank loans. Once the real estate bubble bursts, house prices fall, and the value of the house as a bank collateral will also decrease. If the real estate business is unable to repay the bank loan, it will turn into a non-performing loan, resulting in the increase of bank non-performing loan ratio which directly leads to bank credit risk, and the financial institutions and other industries associated with real estate will be firmly trapped, eventually leading to the outbreak of systemic risks in the financial market. This article collects real estate data from Guangxi through the Real Estate Statistical Yearbook and the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzes the transmission mechanism of housing vacancy and real estate financial risk in Guangxi from the perspective of house price and bank credit, and proposes corresponding policy recommendations to ensure the security of the real estate market.
China's real estate industry has been in a state of irrational prosperity. At the same time as the rapid development of the real estate industry in the country, the problem of housing vacancy has become increasingly prominent. The problem of housing vacancy has been controversial in domestic academic circles and political circles. At present, there is a kind of unreasonable phenomenon in real estate market, that is housing prices are also high when housing vacancy rates are high. Moreover, real estate loans account for the vast majority of China's commercial bank loans. Once the real estate bubble bursts, house prices fall, and the value of the house as a bank collateral will also decrease. If the real estate business is unable to repay the bank loan, it will turn into a non-performing loan, resulting in the increase of bank non-performing loan ratio which directly leads to bank credit risk, and the financial institutions and other industries associated with real estate will be firmly trapped, eventually leading to the outbreak of systemic risks in the financial market. This article collects real estate data from Guangxi through the Real Estate Statistical Yearbook and the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzes the transmission mechanism of housing vacancy and real estate financial risk in Guangxi from the perspective of house price and bank credit, and proposes corresponding policy recommendations to ensure the security of the real estate market.
引文
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[11]张协奎,代晓玲.我国高房价与金融风险的关系分析——基于VAR模型[J].价格月刊,2018(07):7-14.
[12]郭娜,章倩,周扬.房价“粘性”、系统性金融风险与宏观经济波动——基于内生化系统性风险的DSGE模型[J].当代经济科学,2017,39(06):7-16,122.
[2]杨巧,陈诚,宛昆.住房空置的区域差异及对房价的影响——基于35个大中城市的实证[J].城市学刊,2017,38(01):12-18.
[3]王劲松,韩克勇,赵琪.资产价格波动对金融稳定的影响——基于中国数据的实证研究[J].中国流通经济,2016,30(03):102-107.
[4]张川川.收入不平等和城市低收入家庭的住房可及性[J].金融研究,2016(01):99-115.
[5]郭连强,刘力臻,祝国平.我国房地产金融创新面临的突出问题与对策[J].经济纵横,2015(03):103-108.
[6]刘知博,贾甫,韦静强.银行体制、资本市场与房地产金融风险[J].经济体制改革,2014(05):134-138.
[7]台玉红.住房空置率对住宅价格的影响分析[J].经济问题,2009(08):42-43.
[8]董藩.关于空置面积的空置率问题的探讨[A].北京市社会科学界联合会、北京师范大学.和谐社会:社会建设与改革创新——2007学术前沿论丛(上卷)[C].北京市社会科学界联合会、北京师范大学:北京市社会科学界联合会,2007:20.
[9]孙峤,郑思齐,刘洪玉.住宅空置统计的国际比较及借鉴意义[J].统计研究,2005(08):8-12.
[10]沈悦,郭培利,李巍军.房价冲击如何生成系统性金融风险[J].财贸研究,2015,26(03):120-127.
[11]张协奎,代晓玲.我国高房价与金融风险的关系分析——基于VAR模型[J].价格月刊,2018(07):7-14.
[12]郭娜,章倩,周扬.房价“粘性”、系统性金融风险与宏观经济波动——基于内生化系统性风险的DSGE模型[J].当代经济科学,2017,39(06):7-16,122.