中国北方暴雪的年代际变化及其与大气环流和北极海冰的联系
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摘要
采用相关、回归等统计方法,对中国北方暴雪的年代际变化特征及其与大气环流和北极海冰的联系进行探讨。结果表明:中国北方冬季暴雪发生频次较高区域主要位于东北,在空间分布上呈现由西北向东南增加的态势,且存在明显的年代际变化特征:1965—1980年为东北暴雪少发期; 2002—2011年为东北暴雪多发期。分析表明:暴雪少发期,输送至东北的水汽较少;暴雪多发期,更多的水汽输送来自于西北太平洋,同时偏北气流引导的极地冷空气与偏南风引导的太平洋暖湿空气在东北地区汇合,提供暴雪频发的动力条件,造成东北暴雪出现年代际增多。此外,研究发现:前期秋季北极海冰的年代际减少与东北暴雪的年代际增加存在很好的相关性;秋季北极海冰异常偏少导致的大气环流异常主要表现为纬向西风减弱和NAO负位相,由此导致大气经向活动增强,利于极地冷空气向南入侵,且冷空气与暖湿空气在东北地区汇合,这是东北暴雪年代际增加的重要原因之一。
This study explored interdecadal variation of heavy snow in northern China and its relationship with atmospheric circulation and Arctic sea ice by using statistical methods such as correlation and regression.Results show that the high frequencies of heavy snow in northern China in winter are mainly located in Northeast China( NEC),and its spatial distribution shows an increasing trend from northwest to southeast, together with obvious interdecadal variations.Heavy snowfall in NEC is less during 1965—1980,but more during 2002—2011.Analysis shows that there is less water vapor transported to NEC during 1965—1980,but more water vapor transported from Northwest Pacific to NEC during 2002—2011.Meanwhile, the cold polar air guided by northerly airflow and Pacific warm moisture transport guided by southerly airflow benefit a convergence frontogenesis in NEC,providing favorable dynamic conditions for the frequent occurrence of heavy snow,and leading to the interdecadal increase of heavy snow in NEC.Furthermore, it is found that there is a close linkage between the interdecadal decrease of Arctic sea ice in early autumn and the interdecadal increase of snowstorm in NEC. Anomalous circulation pattern caused by the decreased Arctic sea ice in autumn shows that the zonal westerly decreases and NAO is in the negative phase,which can intensify atmospheric meridional activity and be conducive to the southward invasion of polar cold air, leading to the convergences of cold air and warm moist air in NEC.This is a possible important reason for the interdecadal increase of heavy snow in NEC.
This study explored interdecadal variation of heavy snow in northern China and its relationship with atmospheric circulation and Arctic sea ice by using statistical methods such as correlation and regression.Results show that the high frequencies of heavy snow in northern China in winter are mainly located in Northeast China( NEC),and its spatial distribution shows an increasing trend from northwest to southeast, together with obvious interdecadal variations.Heavy snowfall in NEC is less during 1965—1980,but more during 2002—2011.Analysis shows that there is less water vapor transported to NEC during 1965—1980,but more water vapor transported from Northwest Pacific to NEC during 2002—2011.Meanwhile, the cold polar air guided by northerly airflow and Pacific warm moisture transport guided by southerly airflow benefit a convergence frontogenesis in NEC,providing favorable dynamic conditions for the frequent occurrence of heavy snow,and leading to the interdecadal increase of heavy snow in NEC.Furthermore, it is found that there is a close linkage between the interdecadal decrease of Arctic sea ice in early autumn and the interdecadal increase of snowstorm in NEC. Anomalous circulation pattern caused by the decreased Arctic sea ice in autumn shows that the zonal westerly decreases and NAO is in the negative phase,which can intensify atmospheric meridional activity and be conducive to the southward invasion of polar cold air, leading to the convergences of cold air and warm moist air in NEC.This is a possible important reason for the interdecadal increase of heavy snow in NEC.
引文
陈凯奇,房一禾,张蕊,等,2016.华北冬季大雪频次变化特征及对海温的响应[J].中国农学通报,32(2):149-154.Chen K Q,Fang Y H,Zhang R,et al.,2016.Variation characteristics of heavy snow frequency in North China and its response to sea surface temperature[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,32(2):149-154.(in Chinese).
陈潇潇,钱昊钟,周彬,等,2015.沿江苏南一次伴随"高架雷暴"的暴雪天气成因分析[J].大气科学学报,38(6):836-844.Chen X X,Qian H Z,Zhou B,et al.,2015.Cause analysis of a snowstorm case with elevated thunderstorm in southern Jiangsu Province[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(6):836-844.(in Chinese).
董啸,周顺武,胡中明,等,2010.近50年来东北地区暴雪时空分布特征[J].气象,36(12):74-79.Dong X,Zhou S W,Hu Z M,et al.,2010.Characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of heavy snowfall in Northeast China in recent 50 years[J].Meteor Mon,36(12):74-79.(in Chinese).
Feng Y,Chen H P,2016.Warming over the North Pacific can intensify snow events in Northeast China[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,9(2):122-128.
Francis J A,Vavrus S J,2012.Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes[J].Geophys Res Lett,39(6):L06801.
宫德吉,李彰俊,2001.内蒙古暴雪灾害的成因与减灾对策[J].气候与环境研究,6(1):132-138.Gong D J,Li Z J,2001.The cause of heavy snow disaster formation and countermeasure of decreasing disaster in the Inner Mongolia[J].Clim Environ Res,6(1):132-138.(in Chinese).
Heppner P O G,1992.Snow versus rain:looking beyond the“magic”numbers[J].Wea Forecasting,7(4):683-691.
Honda M,Inoue J,Yamane S,2009.Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters[J].Geophys Res Lett,36(8):L08707.
蒋大凯,闵锦忠,乔小湜,2014.一次东北南部特大暴雪的动力机制分析[J].大气科学学报,37(5):605-612.Jiang D K,Min J Z,Qiao X S,2014.The dynamical mechanism analysis of an extraordinary snowstorm over the south of Northeast[J].Trans Atmos Sci,37(5):605-612.(in Chinese).
李多,肖子牛,李泽椿,2012.中国东部北方地区冬季降雪的时空特征及其与全球异常海温的联系[J].气象,38(4):411-418.Li D,Xiao Z N,Li Z C,2012.The spatial and temporal characteristics of winter snowfall in Northeast China and its relation with global sea surface temperature anomaly[J].Meteor Mon,38(4):411-418.(in Chinese).
Liu J,Curry J A,Wang H,et al.,2012.Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,109(11):4074-4079.
Liu J P,Curry J A,Hu Y Y,2004.Recent Arctic sea ice variability:connections to the Arctic Oscillation and the ENSO[J].Geophys Res Lett,31(9).doi:10.1029/2004gl019858.
刘宁微,齐琳琳,韩江文,2009.北上低涡引发辽宁历史罕见暴雪天气过程的分析[J].大气科学,33(2):275-284.Liu N W,Qi L L,Han J W,2009.The analyses of an unusual snowstorm caused by the northbound vortex over Liaoning Province in China[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,33(2):275-284.(in Chinese).
刘玉莲,于宏敏,任国玉,等,2010.1961-2006年黑龙江省暴雪气候时空变化特征[J].气候与环境研究,15(4):470-478.Liu Y L,Yu H M,Ren G Y,et al.,2010.Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the snow storms in Heilongjiang province during 1961-2016[J].Clim Environ Res,15(4):470-478.(in Chinese).
Luo D H,Xiao Y Q,Yao Y,et al.,2016a.Impact of Ural blocking on winter warm Arctic-cold Eurasian anomalies.PartⅠ:blocking-induced amplification[J].J Climate,29(11):3925-3947.
Luo D H,Xiao Y Q,Diao Y N,et al.,2016b.Impact of Ural blocking on winter warm Arctic-cold Eurasian anomalies.PartⅡ:the link to the North Atlantic Oscillation[J].J Climate,29(11):3949-3971.
Marwitz J D,Toth J,1993.A case study of heavy snowfall in Oklahoma[J].Mon Wea Rev,121(3):648-660.
Meier W N,Stroeve J,Fetterer F,2007.Whither Arctic sea ice?A clear signal of decline regionally,seasonally and extending beyond the satellite record[J].Ann Glaciol,46:428-434.
Nakamura T,Yamazaki K,Iwamoto K,et al.,2015.A negative phase shift of the winter AO/NAO due to the recent Arctic sea-ice reduction in late autumn[J].J Geophys Res Atmos,120(8):3209-3227.
Peings Y,Magnusdottir G,2014.Response of the wintertime Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to current and projected arctic sea ice decline:a numerical study with CAM5[J].J Climate,27(1):244-264.
Petoukhov V,Semenov V A,2010.A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents[J].J Geophys Res,115(D21):D21111.
Sanders F,Bosart L F,1985.Mesoscale structure in the megalopolitan snowstorm of 11-12 february 1983.part I:frontogenetical forcing and symmetric instability[J].J Atmos Sci,42(10):1050-1061.
Sun J Q,Wang H J,Yuan W,et al.,2010.Spatial-temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change[J].J Geophys Res,115(D16):D16110.
孙欣,蔡芗宁,陈传雷,等,2011.“070304”东北特大暴雪的分析[J].气象,37(7):863-870.Sun X,Cai X N,Chen C L,et al.,2011.Analysis of the4 March 2007 heavy snowstorm in Northeast China[J].Meteor Mon,37(7):863-870.(in Chinese).
孙秀忠,罗勇,张霞,等,2010.近46年来我国降雪变化特征分析[J].高原气象,29(6):1594-1601.Sun X Z,Luo Y,Zhang X,et al.,2010.Analysis on snowfall change characteristic of China in recent 46 years[J].Plateau Meteor,29(6):1594-1601.(in Chinese).
Tang Q H,Zhang X J,Yang X H,et al.,2013.Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss[J].Environ Res Lett,8(1):014036.
Walsh J E,Chapman W L,Shy T L,1996.Recent decrease of sea level pressure in the central arctic[J].J Climate,9(2):480-486.
王会军,贺圣平,2013.我国东北冬季降雪的年代际增多及其与冬季风减弱的关系[J].科学通报,58(8):629-633.Wang H J,He S P,2013.The increase of snowfall in Northeast China after mid-1980s[J].Chin Sci Bull,58(8):629-633.(in Chinese).
Wang H J,Yu E T,Yang S,2011.An exceptionally heavy snowfall in Northeast China:large-scale circulation anomalies and hindcast of the NCARWRF model[J].Meteor Atmos Phys,113(1/2):11-25.
王文,程麟生,2000.“95.1”大雪的对称不稳定数值诊断分析[J].气象,26(7):9-11.Wang W,Cheng L S,2000.The diagnosis of conditional symmetric instability of the“95.1”snowstorm process[J].Meteor Mon,26(7):9-11.(in Chinese).
王文,程麟生,2002.“96.1”高原暴雪过程三维条件性对称不稳定的数值研究[J].高原气象,21(3):225-232.Wang W,Cheng L S,2002.Numerical study on three-dimensional conditionally symmetric instability of“96.1”snowstorm event[J].Plateau Meteor,21(3):225-232.(in Chinese).
王文辉,徐祥德,1979.锡盟大雪过程和“77.10”暴雪分析[J].气象学报,37(3):80-86.Wang W H,Xu X D,1979.The heavy snow process in disaster Xilingele and the analysis of“77.10”snowstorm[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,37(3):80-86.(in Chinese).
Watanabe M,Nitta T,1999.Decadal changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated surface climate variations in the Northern Hemisphere winter[J].J Climate,12(2):494-510.
Wu B Y,2017.Winter atmospheric circulation anomaly associated with recent arctic winter warm anomalies[J].J Climate,30(21):8469-8479.
武炳义,2018.北极海冰融化影响东亚冬季天气和气候的研究进展以及学术争论焦点问题[J].大气科学,42(4):786-805.Wu B Y,2018.Progresses in the impact study of Arctic sea ice loss on wintertime weather and climate variability over East Asia and key academic disputes[J].Chin JAtmos Sci,42(4):786-805.(in Chinese).
Wu B Y,Handorf D,Dethloff K,et al.,2013.Winter weather patterns over northern Eurasia and Arctic sea ice loss[J].Mon Wea Rev,141(11):3786-3800.
Wu Z W,Li J P,Jiang Z H,et al.,2011.Predictable climate dynamics of abnormal East Asian winter monsoon:once-in-a-century snowstorms in 2007/2008 winter[J].Clim Dyn,37(7/8):1661-1669.
章诞武,丛振涛,倪广恒, 2016. 1956—2010年中国降雪特征变化[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),56(4):381-386,393. Zhang D W,Cong Z T,Ni G H,2016.Snowfall changes in China during 1956—2010[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),56(4):381-386,393 .(in Chinese).
赵琳娜,马清云,杨贵名,等, 2008. 2008年初我国低温雨雪冰冻对重点行业的影响及致灾成因分析[J].气候与环境研究,13(4):556-566.Zhao L N,Ma Q Y,Yang G M, et al., 2008.Disaster and its impact of a severe snow storm and freezing rain over southern China in January 2008[J].Climatic Environ Res,13(4):556-566.(in Chinese).
Zhou B T,Wang Z Y,Shi Y,2017.Possible role of hadley circulation strengthening in interdecadal intensification of snowfalls over northeastern China under climate change[J].J Geophys Res Atmos,122(21):11638-11650.
Zhou B T,Wang Z Y,Shi Y,et al.,2018.Historical and future changes of snowfall events in China under a warming background[J].J Climate,31(15):5873-5889.
陈潇潇,钱昊钟,周彬,等,2015.沿江苏南一次伴随"高架雷暴"的暴雪天气成因分析[J].大气科学学报,38(6):836-844.Chen X X,Qian H Z,Zhou B,et al.,2015.Cause analysis of a snowstorm case with elevated thunderstorm in southern Jiangsu Province[J].Trans Atmos Sci,38(6):836-844.(in Chinese).
董啸,周顺武,胡中明,等,2010.近50年来东北地区暴雪时空分布特征[J].气象,36(12):74-79.Dong X,Zhou S W,Hu Z M,et al.,2010.Characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of heavy snowfall in Northeast China in recent 50 years[J].Meteor Mon,36(12):74-79.(in Chinese).
Feng Y,Chen H P,2016.Warming over the North Pacific can intensify snow events in Northeast China[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,9(2):122-128.
Francis J A,Vavrus S J,2012.Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes[J].Geophys Res Lett,39(6):L06801.
宫德吉,李彰俊,2001.内蒙古暴雪灾害的成因与减灾对策[J].气候与环境研究,6(1):132-138.Gong D J,Li Z J,2001.The cause of heavy snow disaster formation and countermeasure of decreasing disaster in the Inner Mongolia[J].Clim Environ Res,6(1):132-138.(in Chinese).
Heppner P O G,1992.Snow versus rain:looking beyond the“magic”numbers[J].Wea Forecasting,7(4):683-691.
Honda M,Inoue J,Yamane S,2009.Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters[J].Geophys Res Lett,36(8):L08707.
蒋大凯,闵锦忠,乔小湜,2014.一次东北南部特大暴雪的动力机制分析[J].大气科学学报,37(5):605-612.Jiang D K,Min J Z,Qiao X S,2014.The dynamical mechanism analysis of an extraordinary snowstorm over the south of Northeast[J].Trans Atmos Sci,37(5):605-612.(in Chinese).
李多,肖子牛,李泽椿,2012.中国东部北方地区冬季降雪的时空特征及其与全球异常海温的联系[J].气象,38(4):411-418.Li D,Xiao Z N,Li Z C,2012.The spatial and temporal characteristics of winter snowfall in Northeast China and its relation with global sea surface temperature anomaly[J].Meteor Mon,38(4):411-418.(in Chinese).
Liu J,Curry J A,Wang H,et al.,2012.Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,109(11):4074-4079.
Liu J P,Curry J A,Hu Y Y,2004.Recent Arctic sea ice variability:connections to the Arctic Oscillation and the ENSO[J].Geophys Res Lett,31(9).doi:10.1029/2004gl019858.
刘宁微,齐琳琳,韩江文,2009.北上低涡引发辽宁历史罕见暴雪天气过程的分析[J].大气科学,33(2):275-284.Liu N W,Qi L L,Han J W,2009.The analyses of an unusual snowstorm caused by the northbound vortex over Liaoning Province in China[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,33(2):275-284.(in Chinese).
刘玉莲,于宏敏,任国玉,等,2010.1961-2006年黑龙江省暴雪气候时空变化特征[J].气候与环境研究,15(4):470-478.Liu Y L,Yu H M,Ren G Y,et al.,2010.Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the snow storms in Heilongjiang province during 1961-2016[J].Clim Environ Res,15(4):470-478.(in Chinese).
Luo D H,Xiao Y Q,Yao Y,et al.,2016a.Impact of Ural blocking on winter warm Arctic-cold Eurasian anomalies.PartⅠ:blocking-induced amplification[J].J Climate,29(11):3925-3947.
Luo D H,Xiao Y Q,Diao Y N,et al.,2016b.Impact of Ural blocking on winter warm Arctic-cold Eurasian anomalies.PartⅡ:the link to the North Atlantic Oscillation[J].J Climate,29(11):3949-3971.
Marwitz J D,Toth J,1993.A case study of heavy snowfall in Oklahoma[J].Mon Wea Rev,121(3):648-660.
Meier W N,Stroeve J,Fetterer F,2007.Whither Arctic sea ice?A clear signal of decline regionally,seasonally and extending beyond the satellite record[J].Ann Glaciol,46:428-434.
Nakamura T,Yamazaki K,Iwamoto K,et al.,2015.A negative phase shift of the winter AO/NAO due to the recent Arctic sea-ice reduction in late autumn[J].J Geophys Res Atmos,120(8):3209-3227.
Peings Y,Magnusdottir G,2014.Response of the wintertime Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to current and projected arctic sea ice decline:a numerical study with CAM5[J].J Climate,27(1):244-264.
Petoukhov V,Semenov V A,2010.A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents[J].J Geophys Res,115(D21):D21111.
Sanders F,Bosart L F,1985.Mesoscale structure in the megalopolitan snowstorm of 11-12 february 1983.part I:frontogenetical forcing and symmetric instability[J].J Atmos Sci,42(10):1050-1061.
Sun J Q,Wang H J,Yuan W,et al.,2010.Spatial-temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change[J].J Geophys Res,115(D16):D16110.
孙欣,蔡芗宁,陈传雷,等,2011.“070304”东北特大暴雪的分析[J].气象,37(7):863-870.Sun X,Cai X N,Chen C L,et al.,2011.Analysis of the4 March 2007 heavy snowstorm in Northeast China[J].Meteor Mon,37(7):863-870.(in Chinese).
孙秀忠,罗勇,张霞,等,2010.近46年来我国降雪变化特征分析[J].高原气象,29(6):1594-1601.Sun X Z,Luo Y,Zhang X,et al.,2010.Analysis on snowfall change characteristic of China in recent 46 years[J].Plateau Meteor,29(6):1594-1601.(in Chinese).
Tang Q H,Zhang X J,Yang X H,et al.,2013.Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss[J].Environ Res Lett,8(1):014036.
Walsh J E,Chapman W L,Shy T L,1996.Recent decrease of sea level pressure in the central arctic[J].J Climate,9(2):480-486.
王会军,贺圣平,2013.我国东北冬季降雪的年代际增多及其与冬季风减弱的关系[J].科学通报,58(8):629-633.Wang H J,He S P,2013.The increase of snowfall in Northeast China after mid-1980s[J].Chin Sci Bull,58(8):629-633.(in Chinese).
Wang H J,Yu E T,Yang S,2011.An exceptionally heavy snowfall in Northeast China:large-scale circulation anomalies and hindcast of the NCARWRF model[J].Meteor Atmos Phys,113(1/2):11-25.
王文,程麟生,2000.“95.1”大雪的对称不稳定数值诊断分析[J].气象,26(7):9-11.Wang W,Cheng L S,2000.The diagnosis of conditional symmetric instability of the“95.1”snowstorm process[J].Meteor Mon,26(7):9-11.(in Chinese).
王文,程麟生,2002.“96.1”高原暴雪过程三维条件性对称不稳定的数值研究[J].高原气象,21(3):225-232.Wang W,Cheng L S,2002.Numerical study on three-dimensional conditionally symmetric instability of“96.1”snowstorm event[J].Plateau Meteor,21(3):225-232.(in Chinese).
王文辉,徐祥德,1979.锡盟大雪过程和“77.10”暴雪分析[J].气象学报,37(3):80-86.Wang W H,Xu X D,1979.The heavy snow process in disaster Xilingele and the analysis of“77.10”snowstorm[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,37(3):80-86.(in Chinese).
Watanabe M,Nitta T,1999.Decadal changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated surface climate variations in the Northern Hemisphere winter[J].J Climate,12(2):494-510.
Wu B Y,2017.Winter atmospheric circulation anomaly associated with recent arctic winter warm anomalies[J].J Climate,30(21):8469-8479.
武炳义,2018.北极海冰融化影响东亚冬季天气和气候的研究进展以及学术争论焦点问题[J].大气科学,42(4):786-805.Wu B Y,2018.Progresses in the impact study of Arctic sea ice loss on wintertime weather and climate variability over East Asia and key academic disputes[J].Chin JAtmos Sci,42(4):786-805.(in Chinese).
Wu B Y,Handorf D,Dethloff K,et al.,2013.Winter weather patterns over northern Eurasia and Arctic sea ice loss[J].Mon Wea Rev,141(11):3786-3800.
Wu Z W,Li J P,Jiang Z H,et al.,2011.Predictable climate dynamics of abnormal East Asian winter monsoon:once-in-a-century snowstorms in 2007/2008 winter[J].Clim Dyn,37(7/8):1661-1669.
章诞武,丛振涛,倪广恒, 2016. 1956—2010年中国降雪特征变化[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),56(4):381-386,393. Zhang D W,Cong Z T,Ni G H,2016.Snowfall changes in China during 1956—2010[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),56(4):381-386,393 .(in Chinese).
赵琳娜,马清云,杨贵名,等, 2008. 2008年初我国低温雨雪冰冻对重点行业的影响及致灾成因分析[J].气候与环境研究,13(4):556-566.Zhao L N,Ma Q Y,Yang G M, et al., 2008.Disaster and its impact of a severe snow storm and freezing rain over southern China in January 2008[J].Climatic Environ Res,13(4):556-566.(in Chinese).
Zhou B T,Wang Z Y,Shi Y,2017.Possible role of hadley circulation strengthening in interdecadal intensification of snowfalls over northeastern China under climate change[J].J Geophys Res Atmos,122(21):11638-11650.
Zhou B T,Wang Z Y,Shi Y,et al.,2018.Historical and future changes of snowfall events in China under a warming background[J].J Climate,31(15):5873-5889.