稻谷最低收购价政策对“三量齐增”现象影响的实证研究
|
摘要
【目的】最低收购价政策是我国促进农业发展的一项重要政策,通过最低收购价政策对稻谷"三量齐增"现象的影响实证研究,为我国农业供给侧结构性改革提供参考。【方法】以2002—2016年数据为样本,采用联立方程组的方法研究最低收购价政策对稻谷产量、进口量和库存量方面的影响。【结果】最低收购价格通过影响我国稻谷播种面积促使我国稻谷产量增加,产量年均增长约6%;最低收购价格政策显著促进了我国国内稻米价格的提高,年均提高约36.3%,进而显著地促进我国稻谷进口量增加;最低收购价格政策通过影响供需状况促使我国稻谷库存量增加。【结论】我国正处于调整稻谷最低收购价政策的关键期,建议灵活调整最低收购价格,把握好农业支持政策的平衡,在提高国际竞争力上下更大功夫。
【Objective】The minimum purchase price policy is an important policy to promote the development of agriculture in China. Through the empirical research on the influence of the minimum purchase price policy on the phenomenon of "the number of production, imports, and stocks increased simultaneously" of rice, this paper provides a reference for the supply side structural reform of agriculture in China.【Method】Taking the data from 2002 to 2016 as the sample, the effects of the minimum purchase price policy on rice production, imports and stocks were studied by simultaneous equations.【Result】The results show that the minimum purchase price promoted the yield increase by affecting the area planted with rice in China and the annual increase of rice production is about 6%. The minimum purchase price policy significantly promoted the increase of domestic rice prices in China with an average annual increase of about36.3%, and significantly promoted the increase of rice imports in China. The policy of minimum purchase price promoted the increase of rice stock in China by affecting the supply and demand.【Conclusion】China is in the critical period of adjusting the policy of minimum purchase price of rice. It is suggested that the minimum purchase price should be adjusted flexibly,the balance of agricultural support policies should be kept well, and more efforts should be made to improve the international competitiveness.
【Objective】The minimum purchase price policy is an important policy to promote the development of agriculture in China. Through the empirical research on the influence of the minimum purchase price policy on the phenomenon of "the number of production, imports, and stocks increased simultaneously" of rice, this paper provides a reference for the supply side structural reform of agriculture in China.【Method】Taking the data from 2002 to 2016 as the sample, the effects of the minimum purchase price policy on rice production, imports and stocks were studied by simultaneous equations.【Result】The results show that the minimum purchase price promoted the yield increase by affecting the area planted with rice in China and the annual increase of rice production is about 6%. The minimum purchase price policy significantly promoted the increase of domestic rice prices in China with an average annual increase of about36.3%, and significantly promoted the increase of rice imports in China. The policy of minimum purchase price promoted the increase of rice stock in China by affecting the supply and demand.【Conclusion】China is in the critical period of adjusting the policy of minimum purchase price of rice. It is suggested that the minimum purchase price should be adjusted flexibly,the balance of agricultural support policies should be kept well, and more efforts should be made to improve the international competitiveness.
引文
[1]周洲，石奇.市场扭曲目标多重与“三量齐增”——关于我国粮食价格政策改革的理论思考[J].价格理论与实践，2017(1):67-69.ZHOU Z,SHI Q.Multiple market distortion goals and"Three Volumes Increase"-A theoretical reflection on China's grain price policy reform[J].Price:Theory and Practice,2017(1):67-69.
[2]魏晓莎，张佳睿.中国农产品价格支持政策对粮食进出口的影响评析[J].云南社会科学，2015(3):53-57.WEI X S,ZHANG J R.The impact of China's agricultural price support policy on grain import and export[J].Social Sciences in Yunnan,2015(3):53-57.
[3]钟钰，秦富.我国价格支持政策对粮食生产的影响研究[J].当代经济科学，2012,34(3):119-123,128.ZHONG Y,QIN F.Effect of price support policies on grain production in China[J].Modern Economic Science,2012,34(3):119-123,128.
[4]杨建波，王莉，宋富强，樊鹏.粮食主产区耕地质量影响因素与粮食产能关系分析[J].中国农业资源与区划，2017,38(9):15-22.doi:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20170903.YANG J B,WANG L,SONG F Q,FAN P.Major grain-producing areas of cuitivated land quality influence factors and grain production capacity relationship analysis[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2017,38(9):15-22.doi:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20170903.
[5]田甜，李隆玲，黄东，武拉平.未来中国粮食增产将主要依靠什么——基于粮食生产“十连增”的分析[J].中国农村经济，2015(6):13-22.TIAN T,LI L L,HUANG D,WU L P.What will China mainly rely on to increase grain production in the future?-based on the analysis of"ten consecutive increases"in grain production[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2015(6):13-22.
[6]欧阳浩，戎陆庆，黄镇谨，陈波，王萌.基于粗糙集方法的广东省粮食产量影响因素分析[J].中国农业资源与区划，2014,35(6):100-107.doi:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.2014616.OUYANG H,RONG L Q,HUANG Z J,CHEN B,WANG M.Analysis of influencing factors of grain yields in Guangdong Province based on rough set theory[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2014,35(6):100-107.doi:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.2014616.
[7]尹世久，吴林海，张勇.我国粮食产量波动影响因素的经验分析[J].系统工程理论与实践，2009,29(10):28-34.doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-6788.2009.10.004.YIN S J,WU L H,ZHANG Y.Empirical analysis of the factors influencing grain yield[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2009,29(10):28-34.doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-6788.2009.10.004.
[8]杨卫明，李炳军.基于灰色组合模型的我国粮食生产影响因素差异分析[J].广东农业科学，2018,45(9):151-156,173.doi:10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2018.09.024.YANG W M,LI B J.Research on the difference of influence factors of grain production in China based on grey combination model[J].Guangdong Agricultural Sciences,2018,45(9):151-156,173.doi:10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2018.09.024.
[9]ALI S Z,SIDHU R S,VATTA K.Effectiveness of minimum support price policy of paddy in India with a case study of Punjab[J].Agricultural Economics Research Review,2012,25(2):231-242.
[10]朱晶，李天祥，林大燕.开放进程中的中国农产品贸易:发展历程、问题挑战与政策选择[J].农业经济问题，2018(12):19-32.doi:10.13246/j.cnki.iae.2018.12.003.ZHU J,LI T X,LIN D Y.China's agricultural trade in economic opening-up:development,challenges and future policy alternatives[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2018(12):19-32.doi:10.13246/j.cnki.iae.2018.12.003.
[11]戴鹏.中国谷物进口影响因素分析[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版)，2014,14(6):26-33.DAI P.Analysis of influencing factors on China's grain import[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2014,14(6):26-33.
[12]何树全，高旻.国内外粮价对我国粮食进出口的影响——兼论我国粮食贸易的“大国效应”[J].世界经济研究，2014(3):33-39.HE S Q,GAO W.The impact of domestic and foreign food prices on China’s grain import and export-Also on the"Great Power Effect"of China's grain trade[J].World Economy Studies,2014(3):33-39.
[13]王锐.我国粮食进口增长特征及影响因素分析——2003-2014年的实证研究[J].经济问题探索，2015(6):25-30.Wang R.Analysis on the growth characteristics and influencing factors of China's grain imports-An empirical study from 2003 to 2014[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues,2015(6):25-30.
[14]KAITIBIE S,MASUDUL HAQ M,RAKOTOARISOA M A.Analysis of food import in a highly import dependent economy[J].Review of Middle East Economics&Finance,2017,13(2):106-116.
[15]贺慧芳.双向开放对中国-东盟农产品贸易影响的研究[J].价格月刊，2019(1):88-94.doi:10.14076/j.issn.1006-2025.2019.01.15.HE H F.Research on the impact of two-way opening on Sino-ASEANagricultural trade[J].Prices Monthly,2019(1):88-94.doi:10.14076/j.issn.1006-2025.2019.01.15.
[16]张国梅，宗义湘.中国对其他金砖国家农产品出口贸易的影响因素分析[J/OL].统计与决策，2019(7):149-153[2019-04-17].doi:10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2019.07.036.ZHANG G M,ZONG Y X.Analyses on influencing factors of China's agricultural export trade to other BRICs countries[J/OL].Statistics&Decision,2019(7):149-153[2019-04-17].doi:10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2019.07.036.
[17]王凤婷，田园，程宝栋.中国与“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线国家农产品出口贸易研究[J].国际经济合作，2019(2):80-90.WANG F T,TIAN Y,CHENG B D.Research on agriculture product export trade between China and the Countries along the“21st Century Silk Road”[J].Journal of International Economic Cooperation,2019(2):80-90.
[18]赵一凡，魏亚卿，李琦喆，卞良.我国粮食安全的影响因素——基于灰色关联度法的分析[J].经营与管理，2018(10):97-99.doi:10.16517/j.cnki.cn12-1034/f.2018.10.029.ZHAO Y F,WEI Y Q,LI Q Z,BIAN L.Influencing factorsof China grain security-Analysis based on the grey correlation degree method[J].Management and Administration,2018(10):97-99.doi:10.16517/j.cnki.cn12-1034/f.2018.10.029.
[19]刘颖，许为，樊刚.中国粮食安全储备最优规模研究[J].农业技术经济，2010(11):83-89.doi:10.13246/j.cnki.jae.2010.11.009.LIU Y,XIU W,FAN G.Study on the optimal scale of China's food security reserves[J].Journal of Agrotechnical,2010(11):83-89.doi:10.13246/j.cnki.jae.2010.11.009.
[20]武舜臣.粮食安全保障与稻麦“三量齐增”应对:中国玉米和日本稻米改革的经验启示[J].经济学家，2018(4):96-103.WU S C.Food security and the response to"three simultaneous increases"of rice and wheat:the experience of China's corn and Japan's rice reform[J].Economist,2018(4):96-103.
[2]魏晓莎，张佳睿.中国农产品价格支持政策对粮食进出口的影响评析[J].云南社会科学，2015(3):53-57.WEI X S,ZHANG J R.The impact of China's agricultural price support policy on grain import and export[J].Social Sciences in Yunnan,2015(3):53-57.
[3]钟钰，秦富.我国价格支持政策对粮食生产的影响研究[J].当代经济科学，2012,34(3):119-123,128.ZHONG Y,QIN F.Effect of price support policies on grain production in China[J].Modern Economic Science,2012,34(3):119-123,128.
[4]杨建波，王莉，宋富强，樊鹏.粮食主产区耕地质量影响因素与粮食产能关系分析[J].中国农业资源与区划，2017,38(9):15-22.doi:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20170903.YANG J B,WANG L,SONG F Q,FAN P.Major grain-producing areas of cuitivated land quality influence factors and grain production capacity relationship analysis[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2017,38(9):15-22.doi:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20170903.
[5]田甜，李隆玲，黄东，武拉平.未来中国粮食增产将主要依靠什么——基于粮食生产“十连增”的分析[J].中国农村经济，2015(6):13-22.TIAN T,LI L L,HUANG D,WU L P.What will China mainly rely on to increase grain production in the future?-based on the analysis of"ten consecutive increases"in grain production[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2015(6):13-22.
[6]欧阳浩，戎陆庆，黄镇谨，陈波，王萌.基于粗糙集方法的广东省粮食产量影响因素分析[J].中国农业资源与区划，2014,35(6):100-107.doi:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.2014616.OUYANG H,RONG L Q,HUANG Z J,CHEN B,WANG M.Analysis of influencing factors of grain yields in Guangdong Province based on rough set theory[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2014,35(6):100-107.doi:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.2014616.
[7]尹世久，吴林海，张勇.我国粮食产量波动影响因素的经验分析[J].系统工程理论与实践，2009,29(10):28-34.doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-6788.2009.10.004.YIN S J,WU L H,ZHANG Y.Empirical analysis of the factors influencing grain yield[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2009,29(10):28-34.doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-6788.2009.10.004.
[8]杨卫明，李炳军.基于灰色组合模型的我国粮食生产影响因素差异分析[J].广东农业科学，2018,45(9):151-156,173.doi:10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2018.09.024.YANG W M,LI B J.Research on the difference of influence factors of grain production in China based on grey combination model[J].Guangdong Agricultural Sciences,2018,45(9):151-156,173.doi:10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2018.09.024.
[9]ALI S Z,SIDHU R S,VATTA K.Effectiveness of minimum support price policy of paddy in India with a case study of Punjab[J].Agricultural Economics Research Review,2012,25(2):231-242.
[10]朱晶，李天祥，林大燕.开放进程中的中国农产品贸易:发展历程、问题挑战与政策选择[J].农业经济问题，2018(12):19-32.doi:10.13246/j.cnki.iae.2018.12.003.ZHU J,LI T X,LIN D Y.China's agricultural trade in economic opening-up:development,challenges and future policy alternatives[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2018(12):19-32.doi:10.13246/j.cnki.iae.2018.12.003.
[11]戴鹏.中国谷物进口影响因素分析[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版)，2014,14(6):26-33.DAI P.Analysis of influencing factors on China's grain import[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Science Edition),2014,14(6):26-33.
[12]何树全，高旻.国内外粮价对我国粮食进出口的影响——兼论我国粮食贸易的“大国效应”[J].世界经济研究，2014(3):33-39.HE S Q,GAO W.The impact of domestic and foreign food prices on China’s grain import and export-Also on the"Great Power Effect"of China's grain trade[J].World Economy Studies,2014(3):33-39.
[13]王锐.我国粮食进口增长特征及影响因素分析——2003-2014年的实证研究[J].经济问题探索，2015(6):25-30.Wang R.Analysis on the growth characteristics and influencing factors of China's grain imports-An empirical study from 2003 to 2014[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues,2015(6):25-30.
[14]KAITIBIE S,MASUDUL HAQ M,RAKOTOARISOA M A.Analysis of food import in a highly import dependent economy[J].Review of Middle East Economics&Finance,2017,13(2):106-116.
[15]贺慧芳.双向开放对中国-东盟农产品贸易影响的研究[J].价格月刊，2019(1):88-94.doi:10.14076/j.issn.1006-2025.2019.01.15.HE H F.Research on the impact of two-way opening on Sino-ASEANagricultural trade[J].Prices Monthly,2019(1):88-94.doi:10.14076/j.issn.1006-2025.2019.01.15.
[16]张国梅，宗义湘.中国对其他金砖国家农产品出口贸易的影响因素分析[J/OL].统计与决策，2019(7):149-153[2019-04-17].doi:10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2019.07.036.ZHANG G M,ZONG Y X.Analyses on influencing factors of China's agricultural export trade to other BRICs countries[J/OL].Statistics&Decision,2019(7):149-153[2019-04-17].doi:10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2019.07.036.
[17]王凤婷，田园，程宝栋.中国与“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线国家农产品出口贸易研究[J].国际经济合作，2019(2):80-90.WANG F T,TIAN Y,CHENG B D.Research on agriculture product export trade between China and the Countries along the“21st Century Silk Road”[J].Journal of International Economic Cooperation,2019(2):80-90.
[18]赵一凡，魏亚卿，李琦喆，卞良.我国粮食安全的影响因素——基于灰色关联度法的分析[J].经营与管理，2018(10):97-99.doi:10.16517/j.cnki.cn12-1034/f.2018.10.029.ZHAO Y F,WEI Y Q,LI Q Z,BIAN L.Influencing factorsof China grain security-Analysis based on the grey correlation degree method[J].Management and Administration,2018(10):97-99.doi:10.16517/j.cnki.cn12-1034/f.2018.10.029.
[19]刘颖，许为，樊刚.中国粮食安全储备最优规模研究[J].农业技术经济，2010(11):83-89.doi:10.13246/j.cnki.jae.2010.11.009.LIU Y,XIU W,FAN G.Study on the optimal scale of China's food security reserves[J].Journal of Agrotechnical,2010(11):83-89.doi:10.13246/j.cnki.jae.2010.11.009.
[20]武舜臣.粮食安全保障与稻麦“三量齐增”应对:中国玉米和日本稻米改革的经验启示[J].经济学家，2018(4):96-103.WU S C.Food security and the response to"three simultaneous increases"of rice and wheat:the experience of China's corn and Japan's rice reform[J].Economist,2018(4):96-103.