基于灰色关联度分析法的房地产价格影响因素分析——以宿州市为例
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摘要
根据灰色关联度分析法,建立了房地产价格灰色关联度模型,利用宿州市房地产近十年价格数据(2002-2011年),对宿州市房地产价格影响因素进行了深入分析.结果表明:宿州房地产价格主要由城市经济发展水平决定,投机因素较少,具有稳步上升的空间.最后根据宿州市房地产价格的未来走势,从经济发展,人均可支配收入,商品房销售面积等方面,提出了规范宿州市房地产市场的政策建议.
On the basis of Grey correlation analysis method,agrey correlation model for real estate price is established.By use of the property price statistics(2002-2011)in Suzhou,an in-depth analysis is made of the real estate price influencing factors in Suzhou.The results show that Suzhou real estate price is mainly decided by the city's economic development level,and with few speculative factors,which allows adequate room for steadfast upward trend.And finally some suggestions were made for policies to standardize the real estate market based on the future developing trend,the economic development,the per capita disposable income and the sold space of commercial building in the city.
On the basis of Grey correlation analysis method,agrey correlation model for real estate price is established.By use of the property price statistics(2002-2011)in Suzhou,an in-depth analysis is made of the real estate price influencing factors in Suzhou.The results show that Suzhou real estate price is mainly decided by the city's economic development level,and with few speculative factors,which allows adequate room for steadfast upward trend.And finally some suggestions were made for policies to standardize the real estate market based on the future developing trend,the economic development,the per capita disposable income and the sold space of commercial building in the city.
引文
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[16]《安徽统计年鉴》2002—2011年.[EB/OL][2012-04-15]http://www.ahtjj.gov.cn/tjnj/njindex.html.
[17]2011年宿州市国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].[2013-04-30]http://wenku.baidu.com/view/.
[2]Levin A,Lin C F,Chu C.Unit root tests in panel Data:asymptotic and finite-sample properties[J].Journal of Econometrics,2002,108(1):1-24.
[3]Quigley J M.Real estate prices and rconomic cycles[J].International Real Estate Review,1999,2(1):1-20.
[4]Gerlach,S,Peng.W Bank lending and property prices in Hong Kong[J].Journal of Banking&Finance.,2005,29(2):461-481.
[5]Herring R,Wachter S.Bubbles in real estate market[EB/OL].[2013-04-15]http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.199.5765&rep=rep1&type=pdf.
[6]徐静,武乐杰.房地产价格影响因素的解释结构模型分析[J].金融经济,2009(5):22-23.
[7]童长锜,杨和礼.房地产价格影响因素研究[J].建筑经济,2007(S1):190-192.
[8]邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990:55-57.
[9]刘思峰.灰色系统理论的产生与发展[J].南京航空航天大学学报,2004,36(2):267-272.
[10]熊艳.我国房地产价格影响因素研究[J].金融经济,2009(1):35-37.
[11]田益祥,谭地军,赵兵.影响中国房地产价格的因素及其程度分析[J].商场现代化,2005(33):56-58.
[12]梁云芳,高铁梅.中国房地产价格波动区域差异的实证分析[J].经济研究,2007(8):89-99.
[13]李学全.灰色关联度量化模型的进一步研究[J].系统工程,1995,13(6):65-72.
[14]刘志伟.市场预期对房地产价格的影响研究[J].内江师范学院学报,2007,22(4):89-91.
[15]张绍良,张国良.灰色关联度计算方法比较及其存在问题分析[J].系统工程,1996,14(3):68-75.
[16]《安徽统计年鉴》2002—2011年.[EB/OL][2012-04-15]http://www.ahtjj.gov.cn/tjnj/njindex.html.
[17]2011年宿州市国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL].[2013-04-30]http://wenku.baidu.com/view/.