基于突变理论的湖南衡阳暴雨灾害风险评估
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摘要
基于衡阳9个县区1967-2016年气象资料、灾情数据、农村经济数据等,采用突变理论,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾能力四个方面,综合分析了衡阳暴雨灾害风险的时间演变和空间变化情况。结果表明,①致灾因子方面,其风险由南向北逐渐增加。②孕灾环境方面,与致灾因子风险分布相反。③承灾体方面,其风险大致呈现中间高,四周低的趋势。④防灾减灾能力方面,呈现四周低,中间高的趋势。⑤暴雨灾害综合风险,大致呈现由南至北逐渐递减的趋势,与孕灾环境风险分布趋势基本一致。此外,突变理论的采用和评估体系指标的细化,优化了风险评估的过程,提高了风险评估的实用性和科学性。
By collecting the meteorological data,the disaster data and the rural economic data of 9 counties in Hengyang City from 1967 to 2016 and adopting Catastrophe Theory,The temporal evolution and the spatial change of rainstorm disaster risk in Hengyang city is analyzed from the following four aspects: disaster-causing factors; disaster-pregnant environment; hazard-bearing body; disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. The results show that: ①disaster-causing factors risk are mainly distributed in the north,and rarely in the south; ②disaster-pregnant environment risk contrary to risk of disaster-causing factors; ③hazard-bearing body risk are mainly distributed in the middle,and rarely in the around; ④disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities are strong in the middle and weak on the edge; ⑤Comprehensive risk of rainstorm disaster are mainly distributed in the south of Hengyang city and rarely in the north-central,which consistent with the risk distribution of disaster-pregnant environment. In addition,the adoption of catastrophe theory and the refinement of evaluation system indicators have optimized the risk assessment process and improved its technicality and easily manipulate.
By collecting the meteorological data,the disaster data and the rural economic data of 9 counties in Hengyang City from 1967 to 2016 and adopting Catastrophe Theory,The temporal evolution and the spatial change of rainstorm disaster risk in Hengyang city is analyzed from the following four aspects: disaster-causing factors; disaster-pregnant environment; hazard-bearing body; disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. The results show that: ①disaster-causing factors risk are mainly distributed in the north,and rarely in the south; ②disaster-pregnant environment risk contrary to risk of disaster-causing factors; ③hazard-bearing body risk are mainly distributed in the middle,and rarely in the around; ④disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities are strong in the middle and weak on the edge; ⑤Comprehensive risk of rainstorm disaster are mainly distributed in the south of Hengyang city and rarely in the north-central,which consistent with the risk distribution of disaster-pregnant environment. In addition,the adoption of catastrophe theory and the refinement of evaluation system indicators have optimized the risk assessment process and improved its technicality and easily manipulate.
引文
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[14]冯强,陶诗言,王昂生,等.暴雨洪涝灾害对社会经济和人民生活的影响分析[J].灾害学,2001,16(3):45-49.
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[18] WANG Wenjun,LIU Suling,ZHANG Shushen,et al. Assessment of a model of pollution disaster in near-shore coastal waters based on catastrophe theory[J]. Ecological modelling,2011,222:307-312.
[19]施玉群,刘亚莲,何金平.关于突变评价法几个问题的进一步研究[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2003(4):132-136.
[20]李继清,张玉山,纪昌明,等.突变理论在长江流域洪灾综合风险社会评价中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2007,40(4):26-30.
[21]汤洁,林年丰,黄奕龙.尖点突变模型在研究洪水引起环境突变中的应用[J].环境科学学报,2002,22(4):443-447.
[22]冯平,李绍飞,李建柱.基于突变理论的地下水环境风险评价[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(2):13-18.
[23]戚杰.突变理论在环境建模中的应用研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2005.
[2]翁莉,马林,徐双凤.城市暴雨灾害风险评估及防御对策研究———以江苏省南京市为例[J].灾害学,2015,30(1):130-134.
[3]万君,周月华,王迎迎,等.基于GIS的湖北省区域暴雨灾害风险评估方法研究[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(4):328-333.
[4]方秀琴,王凯,任立良,等.基于GIS的江西省山洪灾害风险评价与分区[J].灾害学,2017,32(1):111-116.
[5]胡俊锋,杨月巧,杨佩国.基于减灾能力评价的洪涝灾害综合风险研究[J].资源科学,2014,6(1):94-102.
[6] Benito G,LANG M,Barriendos M,et al. Use of systematic,palaeo flood and historical data for the improvement of flood risk estimation,review of scientific methods[J]. Natural Hazards,2004,31(3):623-643.
[7]黄冬梅,黄卓帆,黄肖寒.基于GIS的河池市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与区划[J].气象研究与应用,2016,7(1):21-24.
[8]罗培,张天儒,杜军.基于GIS和模糊评价法的重庆洪涝灾害风险区划[J].西华师范大学学报(自然科学版),2007(2):165-171.
[9]李琳,朱秀芳,孙章丽,等.辽宁省暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估模型的建立与应用[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(S1):49-56.
[10]耿焕同,吴正雪,计浩军,等.基于GIS的上海市嘉定区暴雨积涝灾害风险区划研究[J].灾害学,2015,30(1):96-101.
[11]徐玉霞.基于GIS的陕西省洪涝灾害风险评估及区划[J].灾害学,2017,32(2):103-108.
[12] Masozera M,Bailey M,Kerchner C. Distribution of impacts of natural disasters across income groups:a case study of New Orleans[J]. Ecological Economics,2007,63(2/3):299-306.
[13]王博,崔春光,彭涛,等.暴雨灾害风险评估与区划的研究现状与进展[J].暴雨灾害,2007,(3):281-286.
[14]冯强,陶诗言,王昂生,等.暴雨洪涝灾害对社会经济和人民生活的影响分析[J].灾害学,2001,16(3):45-49.
[15]章国材.自然灾害风险评估与区划原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2014:269.
[16]高文学,高庆华,马宗晋.减轻自然灾害将是21世纪亟待开拓的产业[J].基建优化,1998(S1):5-7.
[17]吴先华,周蕾,高歌,等.考虑防灾减灾能力的洪涝灾害灾损率曲线构建:以里下河地区的李中镇为例[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(2):223-231.
[18] WANG Wenjun,LIU Suling,ZHANG Shushen,et al. Assessment of a model of pollution disaster in near-shore coastal waters based on catastrophe theory[J]. Ecological modelling,2011,222:307-312.
[19]施玉群,刘亚莲,何金平.关于突变评价法几个问题的进一步研究[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2003(4):132-136.
[20]李继清,张玉山,纪昌明,等.突变理论在长江流域洪灾综合风险社会评价中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2007,40(4):26-30.
[21]汤洁,林年丰,黄奕龙.尖点突变模型在研究洪水引起环境突变中的应用[J].环境科学学报,2002,22(4):443-447.
[22]冯平,李绍飞,李建柱.基于突变理论的地下水环境风险评价[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(2):13-18.
[23]戚杰.突变理论在环境建模中的应用研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2005.
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