基于物元法的江西省水资源安全评价
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摘要
在综合考虑水资源安全主要影响因素的基础上,从水资源、社会、经济和生态环境四个方面选取16个定量指标作为评价因素,采用层次分析法(AHP)确定评价指标初始权重,并采用投影寻踪法修正,引入物元分析法对江西省各市水资源安全进行综合评价。结果表明,2011～2015年江西省各地市水资源安全等级整体呈上升趋势,地域差距比较明显,其中南昌、赣州、九江等人口聚集且经济发展迅速的地区水资源安全等级相对较低,与江西省水资源安全的实际状况相吻合,评价方法可供类似区域水资源安全评价参考。
Based on the comprehensive consideration of the main influencing factors of water resources security,this paper selects 16 quantitative indicators as the evaluation factors from four aspects of water resources,society,economy and ecological environment.The projection weighting method is used to correct the initial weight of the evaluation index obtained by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP).And then the matter-element analysis method is introduced to comprehensively evaluate the water resources security of Jiangxi Province.The results show that the water resources security level of various cities in Jiangxi Province has shown an upward trend from 2011 to 2015,and the geographical gap is relatively obvious.Among them,Nanchang,Ganzhou,Jiujiang and other areas with dense population and rapid economic development have relatively low water security levels,and it is consistent with the actual situation of water resources security in Jiangxi Province.Thus,the evaluation method can be used as a reference for water resources safety evaluation in the similar regions.
Based on the comprehensive consideration of the main influencing factors of water resources security,this paper selects 16 quantitative indicators as the evaluation factors from four aspects of water resources,society,economy and ecological environment.The projection weighting method is used to correct the initial weight of the evaluation index obtained by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP).And then the matter-element analysis method is introduced to comprehensively evaluate the water resources security of Jiangxi Province.The results show that the water resources security level of various cities in Jiangxi Province has shown an upward trend from 2011 to 2015,and the geographical gap is relatively obvious.Among them,Nanchang,Ganzhou,Jiujiang and other areas with dense population and rapid economic development have relatively low water security levels,and it is consistent with the actual situation of water resources security in Jiangxi Province.Thus,the evaluation method can be used as a reference for water resources safety evaluation in the similar regions.
引文
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[2]石卫,夏军,李福林,等.山东省流域水资源安全分析[J].武汉大学学报:工学版,2016,49(6):801-805,817.
[3]钟姗姗,刘鹂.2007-2015年湖南省水资源安全状态与短板要素甄别[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(5):50-56.
[4]邵东国,李旭东,唐明,等.干旱条件下城市水资源应急调配模型[J].华北水利水电大学学报:自然科学版,2014,35(1):1-6.
[5]夏军,石卫.变化环境下中国水安全问题研究与展望[J].水利学报,2016,47(3):292-301.
[6]鲍超,邹建军.基于人水关系的京津冀城市群水资源安全格局评价[J].生态学报,2018,38(12):4 180-4 191.
[7]黄军,谭炳卿,赵静,等.内陆核电选址阶段水资源条件评估技术要点[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(8):140-143.
[8]肖俊.江西省水资源安全评价[D].长沙:长沙理工大学,2008.
[9]万坤扬,胡其昌.基于层次分析法的杭州市水资源安全现状评价及趋势[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(1):21-25,222.
[10]段长桂,董增川,管西柯,等.基于猴群算法的投影寻踪模型在河流健康评价中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(10):51-54.
[11]皮家骏,欧阳澍,张带琴,等.基于PSR-物元模型的水生态文明评价研究---以南昌市为例[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(1):55-61.
[12]张自英,潘万贵,黄涛,等.水资源安全综合评价与预测---基于浙江省台州市实证分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(4):70-74.