2017年汛期气候预测先兆信号的综合分析
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摘要
2017年夏季(2017年6—8月),全国平均降水量348.6mm,较常年同期(322.6mm)偏多8.1%,呈现南、北两条多雨带。东亚夏季风偏弱,西太平洋副热带高压显著偏强,脊线位置偏南;欧亚中高纬呈现"两槽一脊"环流型,贝加尔湖地区为正距平控制。赤道中东太平洋海温从前冬冷水向春、夏季暖水发展,20世纪80年代以来容易出现南方多雨的Ⅳ类雨型,夏季贝加尔湖阻塞高压发展。2017年赤道中东太平洋海温从前冬冷水向春、夏季暖水发展,春季北大西洋三极子正位相和2016年欧亚积雪从秋到冬的减少,均有利于夏季贝加尔湖阻塞高压发展,这是夏季主要多雨带位于长江以南的重要前兆信号。
During the summer of 2017(June to August),the average precipitation over China was348.6 mm,which is 8.1% more than normal(332.6 mm).Two rainfall bands were observed over eastern China.The East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)was weaker than normal,while the west Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)was significantly stronger than normal with southward ridge position.The"-+-"circulation pattern was located in Eurasian mid-high latitude with positive anomaly over the Lake of Baikal region.The cold SST in the middle-east of equatorial Pacific in the early winter changed to warm phase in the summer of 2017,and the 4 th rain pattern,e.g.above normal rainfall in southern China,prevailed,while the blocking high over the Lake of Baikal appeared frequently.The major precursory signals of southward rainband are the weakened cold sea surface temperature(SST)in the middle-east of equator Pacific in early winter 2016,the positive triple SST in the North Atlantic in spring 2017,and the decreased snow cover in Eurasia from autumn to winter in 2016.Their common effects benefit the blocking high formation over the Lake of Baikal.
During the summer of 2017(June to August),the average precipitation over China was348.6 mm,which is 8.1% more than normal(332.6 mm).Two rainfall bands were observed over eastern China.The East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)was weaker than normal,while the west Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)was significantly stronger than normal with southward ridge position.The"-+-"circulation pattern was located in Eurasian mid-high latitude with positive anomaly over the Lake of Baikal region.The cold SST in the middle-east of equatorial Pacific in the early winter changed to warm phase in the summer of 2017,and the 4 th rain pattern,e.g.above normal rainfall in southern China,prevailed,while the blocking high over the Lake of Baikal appeared frequently.The major precursory signals of southward rainband are the weakened cold sea surface temperature(SST)in the middle-east of equator Pacific in early winter 2016,the positive triple SST in the North Atlantic in spring 2017,and the decreased snow cover in Eurasia from autumn to winter in 2016.Their common effects benefit the blocking high formation over the Lake of Baikal.
引文
陈丽娟,顾微,丁婷,等,2016.2015年汛期气候预测先兆信号的综合分析[J].气象,42(4):496-506.
封国林,赵俊虎,支蓉,等,2013.动力-统计客观定量化汛期降水预测研究新进展[J].应用气象学报,24(6):656-665.
高辉,2006.淮河夏季降水与赤道东太平洋海温对应关系的年代际变化[J].应用气象学报,17(1):1-9.
黄荣辉,蔡榕硕,陈际龙,等,2006.我国旱涝气候灾害的年代际变化及其与东亚气候系统变化的关系[J].大气科学,30(5):730-743.
柯宗建,王永光,龚振淞,2014.2013年汛期气候预测的先兆信号及其应用[J].气象,40(4):502-509.
赖比星,2005.黄河断流与El Ni珘no事件的遥相关[J].气象科学,25(6):594-608.
励申申,寿绍文,2000.赤道东太平洋海温与我国江淮流域夏季旱涝的成因分析[J].应用气象学报,11(3):331-338.
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穆松宁,周广庆,2012.欧亚北部冬季增雪“影响”我国夏季气候异常的机理研究---陆面季节演变异常的“纽带”作用[J].大气科学,36(2):297-315.
施能,1991.黄河、长江中下游季月降水场区划、早涝特征及其与EN-SO的若干关系[J].气象科学,11(2):181-190.
孙林海,宋文玲,龚振淞,2015.2014年讯期气候预测先兆信号应用及其复杂性初探[J].气象,41(5):639-648.
孙林海,赵振国,许力,等,2005.中国东部季风区夏季雨型的划分及其环流成因分析[J].应用气象学报,16(s1):56-62.
陶亦为,孙照渤,李维京等,2011.ENSO与青藏高原积雪的关系及其对我国夏季降水异常的影响[J].气象,37(8):919-928.
叶笃正,黄荣辉,1990.旱涝气候研究进展[M].北京:气象出版社,37-38.
袁媛,高辉,柳艳菊,2017.2016年夏季我国东部降水异常特征及成因简析[J].气象,43(1):115-121.
翟盘茂,周琴芳,1997.北半球雪盖变化与我国夏季降水[J].应用气象学报,8(2):230-235.
张庆云,宣守丽,孙淑清,2018.夏季东亚高空副热带西风急流季节内异常的环流特征及前兆信号[J].大气科学,待出版.
张志华,黄刚,2008.不同类型El Ni珘no事件及其与我国夏季气候异常的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,31(6):783-788.
赵溱,1984.亚欧大陆雪盖与东亚夏季风[J].气象,7(1):27-29.
郑志海,任宏利,黄建平,2009.基于季节气候可预报分量的相似误差订正方法和数值实验[J].物理学报,58(10):7359-7367.
郑志海,王永光,2018.2017年夏季北半球大气环流特征及对我国天气气候的影响[J].气象,44(1):199-250.
中国气象局,2007.中国灾害性天气气候图集(1961-2006年)[M].北京:气象出版社.
Gu W,Li C Y,Wang X,et al,2009.Linkage between mei-yu precipitation and North Atlantic SST on the decadal timescale[J].Adv Atmos Sci,26(1):101-108.
Huang B,Banzon V F,Freeman E,et al,2015.Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4(ERSST.v4).Part I:Upgrades and intercomparisons[J].J Climate,28(3):911-930.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,KistlerR,et al,1996.The NCEP/NCAR40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-471.
Yang S,Xu Li,1994.Linkage between Eurasian snow cover and regional Chinese summer rainfall[J].Int J Climatol,14(6):737-750.
封国林,赵俊虎,支蓉,等,2013.动力-统计客观定量化汛期降水预测研究新进展[J].应用气象学报,24(6):656-665.
高辉,2006.淮河夏季降水与赤道东太平洋海温对应关系的年代际变化[J].应用气象学报,17(1):1-9.
黄荣辉,蔡榕硕,陈际龙,等,2006.我国旱涝气候灾害的年代际变化及其与东亚气候系统变化的关系[J].大气科学,30(5):730-743.
柯宗建,王永光,龚振淞,2014.2013年汛期气候预测的先兆信号及其应用[J].气象,40(4):502-509.
赖比星,2005.黄河断流与El Ni珘no事件的遥相关[J].气象科学,25(6):594-608.
励申申,寿绍文,2000.赤道东太平洋海温与我国江淮流域夏季旱涝的成因分析[J].应用气象学报,11(3):331-338.
罗勇,姜彤,夏军,等,2017.中国陆地水循环演变与成因[M].北京:科学出版社,315-513.
穆松宁,周广庆,2012.欧亚北部冬季增雪“影响”我国夏季气候异常的机理研究---陆面季节演变异常的“纽带”作用[J].大气科学,36(2):297-315.
施能,1991.黄河、长江中下游季月降水场区划、早涝特征及其与EN-SO的若干关系[J].气象科学,11(2):181-190.
孙林海,宋文玲,龚振淞,2015.2014年讯期气候预测先兆信号应用及其复杂性初探[J].气象,41(5):639-648.
孙林海,赵振国,许力,等,2005.中国东部季风区夏季雨型的划分及其环流成因分析[J].应用气象学报,16(s1):56-62.
陶亦为,孙照渤,李维京等,2011.ENSO与青藏高原积雪的关系及其对我国夏季降水异常的影响[J].气象,37(8):919-928.
叶笃正,黄荣辉,1990.旱涝气候研究进展[M].北京:气象出版社,37-38.
袁媛,高辉,柳艳菊,2017.2016年夏季我国东部降水异常特征及成因简析[J].气象,43(1):115-121.
翟盘茂,周琴芳,1997.北半球雪盖变化与我国夏季降水[J].应用气象学报,8(2):230-235.
张庆云,宣守丽,孙淑清,2018.夏季东亚高空副热带西风急流季节内异常的环流特征及前兆信号[J].大气科学,待出版.
张志华,黄刚,2008.不同类型El Ni珘no事件及其与我国夏季气候异常的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,31(6):783-788.
赵溱,1984.亚欧大陆雪盖与东亚夏季风[J].气象,7(1):27-29.
郑志海,任宏利,黄建平,2009.基于季节气候可预报分量的相似误差订正方法和数值实验[J].物理学报,58(10):7359-7367.
郑志海,王永光,2018.2017年夏季北半球大气环流特征及对我国天气气候的影响[J].气象,44(1):199-250.
中国气象局,2007.中国灾害性天气气候图集(1961-2006年)[M].北京:气象出版社.
Gu W,Li C Y,Wang X,et al,2009.Linkage between mei-yu precipitation and North Atlantic SST on the decadal timescale[J].Adv Atmos Sci,26(1):101-108.
Huang B,Banzon V F,Freeman E,et al,2015.Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4(ERSST.v4).Part I:Upgrades and intercomparisons[J].J Climate,28(3):911-930.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,KistlerR,et al,1996.The NCEP/NCAR40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-471.
Yang S,Xu Li,1994.Linkage between Eurasian snow cover and regional Chinese summer rainfall[J].Int J Climatol,14(6):737-750.