老龄化、预防动机与家庭储蓄率——对中国第二次人口红利的实证研究
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摘要
老龄化对微观储蓄有生命周期消费效应和预防效应两方面影响,对我国家庭的净效应尚不明确。利用中国家庭追踪调查2010—2014年面板数据,分析了家庭年龄结构与储蓄率的关系,显示老龄化对我国微观家庭储蓄率的净效应为正,说明家庭由于老龄化产生的预防动机大于生命周期消费模式对储蓄率的负效应,我国以此收获第二次人口红利。老龄化对家庭是否选择储蓄和储蓄规模都有显著正效应,说明第二次人口红利同时体现在微观储蓄的参与决策和数量决策上。以上结论在对不同类型储蓄和消费的回归中均稳健。此外,老龄化虽提高了各收入阶层、区域和城乡家庭的储蓄,但对收入水平较低的家庭和农村、中西部家庭影响更大,间接印证了老龄化对微观储蓄率的正效应源于第二次人口红利的预防动机。
Ageing has both precaution effects and negative effects from the perspective of life cycle consumption theory on savings and thus its net effects on Chinese families is unclear so far. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between age structure and saving rate of Chinese families using China Family Panel Studies datasets. The results demonstrate that ageing has significantly positive effects on families 'saving rate,meaning that the proactive and precaution savings incurred by ageing is bigger than the negative effects pointed out by life cycle consumption theory. Therefore,China could reap the second demographic dividend. Moreover,ageing has significantly positive effects on both whether families choose to save and how much to save. In the robust analysis,this paper analyzes the influence of ageing on three different kinds of savings,saving rate,consumption and consumption rate and gets consistent results. Moreover,the above conclusion is supported by the sub-sample analysis on different income status families,urban and rural families and families in different regions. Furthermore,the effects of ageing are smaller on the higher income families. And the effect is larger for the urban families and eastern families than the families in the rural families and middle-western families. These results implied that the positive impact of ageing on micro saving rate might come from the second population dividend.
Ageing has both precaution effects and negative effects from the perspective of life cycle consumption theory on savings and thus its net effects on Chinese families is unclear so far. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between age structure and saving rate of Chinese families using China Family Panel Studies datasets. The results demonstrate that ageing has significantly positive effects on families 'saving rate,meaning that the proactive and precaution savings incurred by ageing is bigger than the negative effects pointed out by life cycle consumption theory. Therefore,China could reap the second demographic dividend. Moreover,ageing has significantly positive effects on both whether families choose to save and how much to save. In the robust analysis,this paper analyzes the influence of ageing on three different kinds of savings,saving rate,consumption and consumption rate and gets consistent results. Moreover,the above conclusion is supported by the sub-sample analysis on different income status families,urban and rural families and families in different regions. Furthermore,the effects of ageing are smaller on the higher income families. And the effect is larger for the urban families and eastern families than the families in the rural families and middle-western families. These results implied that the positive impact of ageing on micro saving rate might come from the second population dividend.
引文
[1]董香书,肖翔.人口红利演变如何影响中国工业化[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016(9):20-27.
[2]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴(2016)[EB/OL].[2017-03-20].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2016/indexce.htm.
[3]MODIGLIANI F,BRUMBERG R.Utility analysis and the consumption function:an interpretation of the cross-section data[M]//KENNETH K K.Post Keynesian Economics.New Brunswick,NJ:Rutgers University Press,1954:388-436.
[4]LEE R,MASON A.What is the demographic dividend?[J].Finance&Development,2006,43(3):16-17.
[5]YAARI M E.Uncertain lifetime,life insurance and the theory of the consumer[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1965,32(2):137-150.
[6]ZHANG J S,ZHANG J,LEE R.Mortality decline and long-run economic growth[J].Journal of Public Economics,2001,80(3):485-507.
[7]袁志刚,宋铮.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度与最优储蓄率[J].经济研究,2000(11):24-32.
[8]贺菊煌.人口变动对经济的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003(12):41-46.
[9]汪伟,艾春荣.人口老龄化与中国储蓄率的动态演化[J].管理世界,2015(6):47-62.
[10]SHESHINSKI E.Longevity and aggregate savings[R].Centre of the Study of Rationality Discussion Paper,No.519,2006.
[11]BLOOM D E,CANNING D,GRAHAM B.Longevity and life-cycle savings[J].The Scandinavian Journal of Economics,2003,105(3):319-338.
[12]LI H,ZHANG J,ZHANG J S.Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth:evidence from a panel of cross countries[J].Journal of Development Economics,2007,84(1):138-154.
[13]蔡昉.未来的人口红利——中国经济增长源泉的开拓[J].中国人口科学,2009(1):2-10.
[14]刘文.人口老龄化的全球发展趋势[J].劳动经济评论,2015(1):84-106.
[15]FRIED L P.Building a third demographic dividend:strengthening intergenerational well-being in ways that deeply matter[J].Public Policy&Aging Report,2016,26(3):78-82.
[16]MALISZEWSKA M,AHMED S A,CRUZ M,et al.Cashing in the demographic dividend[C].GTAP Annual Meeting,2016.
[17]LEFF N H.Dependency rates and savings rates[J].The American Economic Review,1969,59(5):886-896.
[18]SCHULTZ T P.Productive benefits of health:evidence from low-income countries[R].Center Discussion Paper,Yale University,No.903,2005.
[19]HORIOKA C Y.Aging and saving in Asia[J].Pacific Economic Review,2010,15(1):46-55.
[20]KELLEY A C,SCHMIDT R M.Saving,dependency and development[J].Journal of Population Economics,1996,9(4):365-386.
[21]ANDERSSON B.Scandinavian evidence on growth and age structure[J].Regional Studies,2001,35(5):377-390.
[22]CAVALLO E,SANCHEZ G,VALENZUELA P.Gone with the wind:demographic transitions and domestic saving[R].IDB Working Paper Series,2016.
[23]刘永平,陆铭.从家庭养老角度看老龄化的中国经济能否持续增长[J].世界经济,2008(1):65-77.
[24]袁志刚,余静文.中国人口结构变动趋势倒逼金融模式转型[J].学术月刊,2014(10):55-65.
[25]汪伟.人口老龄化、生育政策调整与中国经济增长[J].经济学(季刊),2017(1):67-96.
[26]刘国斌,杜云昊.人口老龄化对县域经济的影响研究[J].人口学刊,2015(2):77-86.
[27]袁磊.人口变动、劳动参与率演进与劳动力供给发展[J].劳动经济评论,2015(2):28-43.
[28]王金营,付秀彬.考虑人口年龄结构变动的中国消费函数计量分析——兼论中国人口老龄化对消费的影响[J].人口研究,2006(1):29-36.
[29]陈彦斌,郭豫媚,姚一旻.人口老龄化对中国高储蓄的影响[J].金融研究,2014(1):71-84.
[30]朱勤,魏涛远.中国人口老龄化与城镇化对未来居民消费的影响分析[J].人口研究,2016(6):62-75.
[31]汪伟.计划生育政策的储蓄与增长效应:理论与中国的经验分析[J].经济研究,2010(10):63-77.
[32]刘铠豪,刘渝琳.破解中国高储蓄率之谜——来自人口年龄结构变化的解释[J].人口与经济,2015(3):43-56.
[33]史晓丹.我国人口老龄化趋势对储蓄率的影响研究[J].南方经济,2013(7):56-63.
[34]范叙春,朱保华.预期寿命增长、年龄结构改变与我国国民储蓄率[J].人口研究,2012(4):18-28.
[35]毛毅.老龄化对储蓄和社会养老保障的影响研究[J].人口与经济,2012(3):91-99.
[36]董丽霞,赵文哲.人口结构与储蓄率:基于内生人口结构的研究[J].金融研究,2011(3):1-14.
[37]王德文,蔡昉,张学辉.人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应——论中国增长可持续性的人口因素[J].人口研究,2004(5):2-11.
[38]郑妍妍,李磊,刘斌.“少子化”“老龄化”对我国城镇家庭消费与产出的影响[J].人口与经济,2013(6):19-29.
[39]丁继红,应美玲,杜在超.我国农村家庭消费行为研究——基于健康风险与医疗保障视角的分析[J].金融研究,2013(10):154-166.
[40]谢宇,胡婧炜,张春泥.中国家庭追踪调查:理念与实践[J].社会,2014(2):1-32.
(1)扣除消费性支出的储蓄率=(家庭总收入-日用品支出-衣着鞋帽支出-文教娱乐支出-食品支出-交通通讯支出-居住支出-医疗支出)/家庭总收入。
(2)扣除日常性支出的储蓄率=(家庭总收入-日用品支出-衣着鞋帽支出-食品支出-交通通讯支出-居住支出)/家庭总收入。
(3)老龄化变量的估计系数是第二次人口红利的预防性储蓄动机减去生命周期消费效应后的净效应。
(1)由于Hausman检验显示固定效应回归更优,因此我们在稳健性分析和接下来的子样本回归中展示了面板双向固定效应回归结果。我们也同时进行了OLS、RE和Heckman两阶段回归,结果与表3的结果基本相同,备索,下同。此外,控制变量的回归结果与表2基本相同,由于篇幅所限未能展示,备索,下同。
(2)对消费的回归和接下来的子样本回归中,我们也使用了家庭65岁及以上的老年人口抚养比作为解释变量进行回归,结果与相关表格的结果基本相同,由于篇幅所限没有展示,备索,下同。
(1)在分收入阶层和区域的子样本回归中我们进行了Chow检验,结果表明老龄化对不同阶层和区域家庭储蓄的影响差异是显著的。
(2)东、中、西部的划分依据国家统计局标准,CFPS样本涵盖的25个省/市/自治区中,东部地区包括:北京、天津、河北、辽宁、山东、江苏、浙江、上海、福建、广东;中部地区包括:山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南;西部地区包括:广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、陕西、甘肃。
[2]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴(2016)[EB/OL].[2017-03-20].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2016/indexce.htm.
[3]MODIGLIANI F,BRUMBERG R.Utility analysis and the consumption function:an interpretation of the cross-section data[M]//KENNETH K K.Post Keynesian Economics.New Brunswick,NJ:Rutgers University Press,1954:388-436.
[4]LEE R,MASON A.What is the demographic dividend?[J].Finance&Development,2006,43(3):16-17.
[5]YAARI M E.Uncertain lifetime,life insurance and the theory of the consumer[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1965,32(2):137-150.
[6]ZHANG J S,ZHANG J,LEE R.Mortality decline and long-run economic growth[J].Journal of Public Economics,2001,80(3):485-507.
[7]袁志刚,宋铮.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度与最优储蓄率[J].经济研究,2000(11):24-32.
[8]贺菊煌.人口变动对经济的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003(12):41-46.
[9]汪伟,艾春荣.人口老龄化与中国储蓄率的动态演化[J].管理世界,2015(6):47-62.
[10]SHESHINSKI E.Longevity and aggregate savings[R].Centre of the Study of Rationality Discussion Paper,No.519,2006.
[11]BLOOM D E,CANNING D,GRAHAM B.Longevity and life-cycle savings[J].The Scandinavian Journal of Economics,2003,105(3):319-338.
[12]LI H,ZHANG J,ZHANG J S.Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth:evidence from a panel of cross countries[J].Journal of Development Economics,2007,84(1):138-154.
[13]蔡昉.未来的人口红利——中国经济增长源泉的开拓[J].中国人口科学,2009(1):2-10.
[14]刘文.人口老龄化的全球发展趋势[J].劳动经济评论,2015(1):84-106.
[15]FRIED L P.Building a third demographic dividend:strengthening intergenerational well-being in ways that deeply matter[J].Public Policy&Aging Report,2016,26(3):78-82.
[16]MALISZEWSKA M,AHMED S A,CRUZ M,et al.Cashing in the demographic dividend[C].GTAP Annual Meeting,2016.
[17]LEFF N H.Dependency rates and savings rates[J].The American Economic Review,1969,59(5):886-896.
[18]SCHULTZ T P.Productive benefits of health:evidence from low-income countries[R].Center Discussion Paper,Yale University,No.903,2005.
[19]HORIOKA C Y.Aging and saving in Asia[J].Pacific Economic Review,2010,15(1):46-55.
[20]KELLEY A C,SCHMIDT R M.Saving,dependency and development[J].Journal of Population Economics,1996,9(4):365-386.
[21]ANDERSSON B.Scandinavian evidence on growth and age structure[J].Regional Studies,2001,35(5):377-390.
[22]CAVALLO E,SANCHEZ G,VALENZUELA P.Gone with the wind:demographic transitions and domestic saving[R].IDB Working Paper Series,2016.
[23]刘永平,陆铭.从家庭养老角度看老龄化的中国经济能否持续增长[J].世界经济,2008(1):65-77.
[24]袁志刚,余静文.中国人口结构变动趋势倒逼金融模式转型[J].学术月刊,2014(10):55-65.
[25]汪伟.人口老龄化、生育政策调整与中国经济增长[J].经济学(季刊),2017(1):67-96.
[26]刘国斌,杜云昊.人口老龄化对县域经济的影响研究[J].人口学刊,2015(2):77-86.
[27]袁磊.人口变动、劳动参与率演进与劳动力供给发展[J].劳动经济评论,2015(2):28-43.
[28]王金营,付秀彬.考虑人口年龄结构变动的中国消费函数计量分析——兼论中国人口老龄化对消费的影响[J].人口研究,2006(1):29-36.
[29]陈彦斌,郭豫媚,姚一旻.人口老龄化对中国高储蓄的影响[J].金融研究,2014(1):71-84.
[30]朱勤,魏涛远.中国人口老龄化与城镇化对未来居民消费的影响分析[J].人口研究,2016(6):62-75.
[31]汪伟.计划生育政策的储蓄与增长效应:理论与中国的经验分析[J].经济研究,2010(10):63-77.
[32]刘铠豪,刘渝琳.破解中国高储蓄率之谜——来自人口年龄结构变化的解释[J].人口与经济,2015(3):43-56.
[33]史晓丹.我国人口老龄化趋势对储蓄率的影响研究[J].南方经济,2013(7):56-63.
[34]范叙春,朱保华.预期寿命增长、年龄结构改变与我国国民储蓄率[J].人口研究,2012(4):18-28.
[35]毛毅.老龄化对储蓄和社会养老保障的影响研究[J].人口与经济,2012(3):91-99.
[36]董丽霞,赵文哲.人口结构与储蓄率:基于内生人口结构的研究[J].金融研究,2011(3):1-14.
[37]王德文,蔡昉,张学辉.人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应——论中国增长可持续性的人口因素[J].人口研究,2004(5):2-11.
[38]郑妍妍,李磊,刘斌.“少子化”“老龄化”对我国城镇家庭消费与产出的影响[J].人口与经济,2013(6):19-29.
[39]丁继红,应美玲,杜在超.我国农村家庭消费行为研究——基于健康风险与医疗保障视角的分析[J].金融研究,2013(10):154-166.
[40]谢宇,胡婧炜,张春泥.中国家庭追踪调查:理念与实践[J].社会,2014(2):1-32.
(1)扣除消费性支出的储蓄率=(家庭总收入-日用品支出-衣着鞋帽支出-文教娱乐支出-食品支出-交通通讯支出-居住支出-医疗支出)/家庭总收入。
(2)扣除日常性支出的储蓄率=(家庭总收入-日用品支出-衣着鞋帽支出-食品支出-交通通讯支出-居住支出)/家庭总收入。
(3)老龄化变量的估计系数是第二次人口红利的预防性储蓄动机减去生命周期消费效应后的净效应。
(1)由于Hausman检验显示固定效应回归更优,因此我们在稳健性分析和接下来的子样本回归中展示了面板双向固定效应回归结果。我们也同时进行了OLS、RE和Heckman两阶段回归,结果与表3的结果基本相同,备索,下同。此外,控制变量的回归结果与表2基本相同,由于篇幅所限未能展示,备索,下同。
(2)对消费的回归和接下来的子样本回归中,我们也使用了家庭65岁及以上的老年人口抚养比作为解释变量进行回归,结果与相关表格的结果基本相同,由于篇幅所限没有展示,备索,下同。
(1)在分收入阶层和区域的子样本回归中我们进行了Chow检验,结果表明老龄化对不同阶层和区域家庭储蓄的影响差异是显著的。
(2)东、中、西部的划分依据国家统计局标准,CFPS样本涵盖的25个省/市/自治区中,东部地区包括:北京、天津、河北、辽宁、山东、江苏、浙江、上海、福建、广东;中部地区包括:山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南;西部地区包括:广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、陕西、甘肃。
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