藏东南察隅河流域不同海拔居民对气候变化的感知
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摘要
在藏东南察隅河流域选取海拔分别为3 313.5、2 891.1和2 476.4 m的3个村庄,对268位居民进行问卷调查,研究不同海拔居民对气候变化的感知状况,并对居民的感知状况与海拔进行相关性分析。结果表明,海拔为3 313.5、2 891.1和2 476.4 m的村庄中,分别有91.7%、88.9%和97.7%的居民认为当地气候发生了变化,其中又有91.7%、95.5%和97.7%的居民认为气候变化明显。不同海拔居民对温度的感知强烈,分别有75.0%、100%和48.3%的居民认为夏季变暖,41.7%、100%和49.4%的居民认为冬季变冷,但大部分居民对湿度的感知不强烈。随着海拔降低,认为以前气候比现在好的居民比例增大(分别为50.0%、56.5%和61.4%),认为冰川面积增加(分别为8.3%、13.6%和45.5%)、河流水量增加(分别为46.7%、56.0%和79.1%)、农作物病虫害增加(分别为33.3%、58.3%和72.7%)的居民比例增大,认为以前气候比现在好的居民比例与海拔呈显著负相关(P<0.05)。分别有75.0%、74.1%和72.7%的居民认为气候变化对生产生活造成了影响。在感知气候变化的途径中,自身经历是最主要的途径(分别为83.3%、100%和90.9%)。当地政府应当进行相应的宣传指导,帮助当地居民适应气候变化带来的不利影响。
A survey was performed on perception of climate change of residents living in three villages situated at various elevations,3 313. 5,2 891. 1 and 2 476. 4 m,separately in the Zayu River Valley,Southeast Tibet by means of questionnaires. Based on the returned questionnaires from 268 residents analysis was done of relationship between the perception of the residents and the elevation they live at. Results show that about 91. 7%,88. 9% and 97. 7% of the residents,respectively,living in the villages at 3 313. 5,2 891. 1 and 2 476. 4 m in elevation hold that the local climate has changed; about 75. 0%,100% and 48. 3% think that summer is getting warmer; and 41. 7%,100% and 49. 4% believe that winter is becoming colder. However,still a number of residents do not have much perception of the change. With decreasing altitude,more and more of the residents,or 50. 0%,56. 5% and 61. 4%,hold that the climate in past time was better than the current one; about 8. 3%,13. 6% and 45. 5% think glaciers expand in area; about 46. 7%,56. 0% and 79. 1% believe that the flow in rivers increases in volume; and more and more of the residents or about 33. 3%,58. 3% and 72. 7%complain that crop pests occur more and more frequently. Proportion of the residents who hold that the climate in past time being better than the current one is negatively related to elevation( P<0. 05). Besides,about 75. 0%,74. 1% and 72. 7%of the residents in the villages hold that the climate changes affects their agricultural production and life as well. And about83. 3%,100% and 90. 9% of the residents admit that personal experience is the main pathway of their perception of climate change. The local governments should take appropriate actions,like propaganda and guidance,to help the local residents adapt to the climate change.
A survey was performed on perception of climate change of residents living in three villages situated at various elevations,3 313. 5,2 891. 1 and 2 476. 4 m,separately in the Zayu River Valley,Southeast Tibet by means of questionnaires. Based on the returned questionnaires from 268 residents analysis was done of relationship between the perception of the residents and the elevation they live at. Results show that about 91. 7%,88. 9% and 97. 7% of the residents,respectively,living in the villages at 3 313. 5,2 891. 1 and 2 476. 4 m in elevation hold that the local climate has changed; about 75. 0%,100% and 48. 3% think that summer is getting warmer; and 41. 7%,100% and 49. 4% believe that winter is becoming colder. However,still a number of residents do not have much perception of the change. With decreasing altitude,more and more of the residents,or 50. 0%,56. 5% and 61. 4%,hold that the climate in past time was better than the current one; about 8. 3%,13. 6% and 45. 5% think glaciers expand in area; about 46. 7%,56. 0% and 79. 1% believe that the flow in rivers increases in volume; and more and more of the residents or about 33. 3%,58. 3% and 72. 7%complain that crop pests occur more and more frequently. Proportion of the residents who hold that the climate in past time being better than the current one is negatively related to elevation( P<0. 05). Besides,about 75. 0%,74. 1% and 72. 7%of the residents in the villages hold that the climate changes affects their agricultural production and life as well. And about83. 3%,100% and 90. 9% of the residents admit that personal experience is the main pathway of their perception of climate change. The local governments should take appropriate actions,like propaganda and guidance,to help the local residents adapt to the climate change.
引文
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