矿坑涌水量预测结果的随机可靠度估算
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摘要
受勘探程度、参数空间变异性及认识水平等因素的影响,矿坑涌水量预测过程中存在众多不确定性因素,严重影响预测结果的可靠度。文章以某铁矿为例,应用随机风险分析方法——MC法(Monte Carlo method)和JC法对矿坑涌水量预测结果随机可靠度进行了深入的分析,并分别定量研究了随机变量的分布类型和变异系数对预测结果随机可靠度的影响程度。实例研究发现,常用的"大井法"预测结果的随机可靠度约为50%。该结果表明矿床开采运行过程中,发生矿坑涌水量超过预测值的随机风险率仍有50%,并验证了不确定性因素的存在将直接影响预测结果的可靠度,也间接说明了不确定性因素的存在是导致矿坑涌水量预测值误差较大的原因之一。另外,预测结果的随机可靠度受随机变量的分布类型和变异系数的影响,但后者的影响比前者更显著。
Due to the influence of the exploration degree,the spatial variation of parameter and the level of knowledge,there are many uncertain factors in the prediction of mine water inflow,which seriously affect the reliability of the prediction results.In this paper,taking an iron mine as an example,the stochastic reliability of mine water inflow prediction results is analyzed by using the stochastic methods including Monte Carlo(MC)method and JC method.And the effect of the distribution types and coefficient of variation of random variables on the stochastic reliability of prediction results is quantitatively studied,respectively.The results of the case study show that the stochastic reliability of prediction results obtained by the large-diameter well method is only about 50%,that is,the risk of the actual mine water inflow exceeding the prediction value of mine water inflow is still about 50%.It is proved that the uncertain factors will directly affect the reliability of prediction results.It also reveals one of the reasons for the larger error of the prediction indirectly.In addition,the stochastic reliability of the predicted results is affected by the distribution types and coefficient of variation of random variables,but the effect of the latter is more significant than that of the former.
Due to the influence of the exploration degree,the spatial variation of parameter and the level of knowledge,there are many uncertain factors in the prediction of mine water inflow,which seriously affect the reliability of the prediction results.In this paper,taking an iron mine as an example,the stochastic reliability of mine water inflow prediction results is analyzed by using the stochastic methods including Monte Carlo(MC)method and JC method.And the effect of the distribution types and coefficient of variation of random variables on the stochastic reliability of prediction results is quantitatively studied,respectively.The results of the case study show that the stochastic reliability of prediction results obtained by the large-diameter well method is only about 50%,that is,the risk of the actual mine water inflow exceeding the prediction value of mine water inflow is still about 50%.It is proved that the uncertain factors will directly affect the reliability of prediction results.It also reveals one of the reasons for the larger error of the prediction indirectly.In addition,the stochastic reliability of the predicted results is affected by the distribution types and coefficient of variation of random variables,but the effect of the latter is more significant than that of the former.
引文
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[2]郭小铭,李博,殷文渊,等.Visual Modflow预测矿井涌水量过程中边界条件问题探讨[J].矿业安全与环保,2013,40(6):104-107.
[3]房佩贤.专门水文地质学[M].修订版.北京:地质出版社,1996:192-199.
[4] LIU P G,ELSHALL A S,YE M,et al.Evaluating marginal likelihood with thermodynamic integration method and comparison with several other numerical methods[J].Water Resources Research,2016,52(2):734-758.
[5]赵国藩.工程结构可靠性理论与应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2008:18-54.
[6]刘佩贵,束龙仓,尚熳廷,等.地下水可开采量可靠性分析的模糊-随机方法[J].水利学报,2008,39(9):1141-1145.
[7] CARDENAS M B,ZLOTNIK V A.Three-dimensional model of modern channel bend deposits[J].Water Resources Research,2003,39(6):SBH1-1-SBH1-12.
[8]李伟,束龙仓.湖区地层垂向渗透系数概率分布特征分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2005,25(2):20-22.
[9]雷志栋.土壤水动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1988:322-326.