玉米优良品种推广重心转移及扩散的时空规律
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摘要
针对审定品种在推广阶段表现差异巨大、特征规律没有充分挖掘等问题。该文结合1982-2012年玉米新品种推广面积数据,选取种植面积曾达到666 67 hm~2、推广时间大于5 a的品种,以推广时间、最大推广面积等为关键指标,从全国和省份空间尺度分类选取优良品种,发现2类优良品种:在全国推广面积大时间长、具有普遍适宜性的大品种;仅在有限省份推广面积大时间长、具有特殊适宜性的区域特色品种,分析了其推广重心转移及扩散规律。优良品种在不同空间尺度扩散方式一致,呈现2种扩散模式:1)大品种推广重心呈辐射邻近扩散;2)区域品种推广重心呈跳跃式扩散且跳跃距离较远,在1~2个省份出现空间聚集性。优良品种在不同空间尺度都具有扩散效应和重心变化,不同省份品种结构和更替无明显空间相关。该研究可为按省级建立品种推广方案提供参考。
Finding the suitable planting environment for the maize variety plays a decisive role in crop varieties precision marketing. New varieties need to adapt to the promotion environment quickly and be supposed to behave well. However, the performance of crop variety during field production results from genotype effect, environment effect, and genotype-by-environment interaction(GEI) effect. So far, the performance of varieties has showed great difference in the promotion stage. On the one hand, the excellent promoted varieties are not sufficient. The analysis methods of characteristics and attributions are still in the initial stage and the index definition varies differently. On the other hand, the laws of characteristics of the excellent maize variety performance have not been fully excavated. For most of the varieties, which have gone through the national regional test, variety certification and screening, the characteristics and rules have not been fully mined. Therefore, many approved varieties have not been accepted by the market in different spatial scales. In this paper, based on the data of the cultivated area of the varieties that have been approved and entered into the promotion period from 1982 to 2012, we fit and verify the applicability of Gaussian model in the province scale. Firstly, we provide a classification method, which helps to find out the excellent promoted varieties and explore the rule of promotion center transformation and diffusion from the different spatial scales. We select the maize varieties whose planting area has reached 6.67 million hectare or more and the promotion time is more than 5 years, and the life cycle curve of variety is fitted in both national and provincial scales. Secondly, we classify the varieties and choose the excellent varieties combined with spatial information, discovering the rules that the excellent maize varieties can be divided into 2 categories, which are big varieties, which should be promoted in most of the provinces with larger area and longer time across the country and reflect the universal suitability, and regional special varieties, which should be promoted in only limited provinces with larger area and longer time and reflect the special suitability. Last but not the least, the method can quickly find out excellent corn varieties and select the characteristics of the varieties that can be taken as key indicators for promotion. We have explored the temporal and spatial diffusion law of excellent varieties, as well as the promotion center's transformation distribution, in order to summarize all kinds of suitable promotion models of varieties. According to the results, excellent varieties in the national and provincial scale conform to the Gaussian life cycle curve of varieties, which obviously has characteristics of space and time. Besides, the diffusion modes of the big varieties and regional special varieties are different. For the big varieties, the promotion center always transfers to the nearby provinces, which means it can radiate to the surrounding environment. For the regional special varieties, the promotion center always starts from several provinces but transfers to the distant one or two provinces, which means it has a leaping diffusion. The performance of excellent maize varieties in different provinces also behaves differently in the same ecological region. The structure and replacement of varieties are also not the same from provinces to provinces, which are relevant to the way of the province promotion and the acceptance of varieties. In conclusion, based on geographic information system(GIS), this article has preliminarily exploited the temporal and spatial diffusion law of excellent promoted maize varieties as well as the promotion center's transformation distribution, which are from the Huang-Huai-Hai maize planting region and the Dong-Hua-Bei maize planting region. It suggests that excellent promoted varieties should be promoted at the regional scale, which is of great significance for guiding crop varieties suitability analysis and variety test design in the target maize planting region.
Finding the suitable planting environment for the maize variety plays a decisive role in crop varieties precision marketing. New varieties need to adapt to the promotion environment quickly and be supposed to behave well. However, the performance of crop variety during field production results from genotype effect, environment effect, and genotype-by-environment interaction(GEI) effect. So far, the performance of varieties has showed great difference in the promotion stage. On the one hand, the excellent promoted varieties are not sufficient. The analysis methods of characteristics and attributions are still in the initial stage and the index definition varies differently. On the other hand, the laws of characteristics of the excellent maize variety performance have not been fully excavated. For most of the varieties, which have gone through the national regional test, variety certification and screening, the characteristics and rules have not been fully mined. Therefore, many approved varieties have not been accepted by the market in different spatial scales. In this paper, based on the data of the cultivated area of the varieties that have been approved and entered into the promotion period from 1982 to 2012, we fit and verify the applicability of Gaussian model in the province scale. Firstly, we provide a classification method, which helps to find out the excellent promoted varieties and explore the rule of promotion center transformation and diffusion from the different spatial scales. We select the maize varieties whose planting area has reached 6.67 million hectare or more and the promotion time is more than 5 years, and the life cycle curve of variety is fitted in both national and provincial scales. Secondly, we classify the varieties and choose the excellent varieties combined with spatial information, discovering the rules that the excellent maize varieties can be divided into 2 categories, which are big varieties, which should be promoted in most of the provinces with larger area and longer time across the country and reflect the universal suitability, and regional special varieties, which should be promoted in only limited provinces with larger area and longer time and reflect the special suitability. Last but not the least, the method can quickly find out excellent corn varieties and select the characteristics of the varieties that can be taken as key indicators for promotion. We have explored the temporal and spatial diffusion law of excellent varieties, as well as the promotion center's transformation distribution, in order to summarize all kinds of suitable promotion models of varieties. According to the results, excellent varieties in the national and provincial scale conform to the Gaussian life cycle curve of varieties, which obviously has characteristics of space and time. Besides, the diffusion modes of the big varieties and regional special varieties are different. For the big varieties, the promotion center always transfers to the nearby provinces, which means it can radiate to the surrounding environment. For the regional special varieties, the promotion center always starts from several provinces but transfers to the distant one or two provinces, which means it has a leaping diffusion. The performance of excellent maize varieties in different provinces also behaves differently in the same ecological region. The structure and replacement of varieties are also not the same from provinces to provinces, which are relevant to the way of the province promotion and the acceptance of varieties. In conclusion, based on geographic information system(GIS), this article has preliminarily exploited the temporal and spatial diffusion law of excellent promoted maize varieties as well as the promotion center's transformation distribution, which are from the Huang-Huai-Hai maize planting region and the Dong-Hua-Bei maize planting region. It suggests that excellent promoted varieties should be promoted at the regional scale, which is of great significance for guiding crop varieties suitability analysis and variety test design in the target maize planting region.
引文
[1]侯军岐,邓俊锋,张长鲁.论我国种业供给侧改革思路与建议[J].中国种业,2016(5):1-4.
[2]赵博,王丽英,蔡菲菲,等.我国种业发展现状、制约问题及战略对策研究[J].种子,2013(6):64-66.Zhao Bo,Wang Liying,Cai Feifei,et al.Study on current situation,problem,strategy of seed industry development in China[J].Seed,2013(6):64-66.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[3]佟屏亚.20世纪中国玉米品种改良的历程和成就[J].中国科技史料,2001(2):15.
[4]陈就就.玉米区域试验分析模型与方法的研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2012.Chen Jiujiu.Maize Regional Trial Analysis Models and Methods[D].Yangling:Northwest A&F University,2012.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[5]刘九洋.种子产业化现状及我国种业的发展趋势[D].郑州:河南农业大学,2009.Liu Jiuyang.Present Status and Development Trend of Seed Industry in China[D].Zhengzhou:He’nan Agricultural University,2009.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[6]王晶晶,李凤海,史振声,等.辽宁省不同生态区玉米品种适应性研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015(4):59-63.Wang Jingjing,Li Fenghai,Shi Zhensheng,et al.Adaptation of different maize hybrids in different ecological regions in Liaoning Province[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2015(4):59-63.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[7]杨扬,王凤格,赵久然,等.中国玉米品种审定现状分析[J].中国农业科学,2014(22):4360-4370.Yang Yang,Wang Fengge,Zhao Jiuran,et al.Analysisof the current situation of accredited maize varieties in China[J].Scientia Agriculture Sinica,2014(22):4360-4370.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[8]马泳.良种技术扩散的理论与实证研究[J].农民致富之友,2017(4):141.
[9]赵祖亮,曲艺伟,刘哲,等.玉米产量的品种与环境互作效应空间分布规律[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(24):232-238.Zhao Zuliang,Qu Yiwei,Liu Zhe,et al.Spatial distribution of interaction effect between variety and environment on maize yield[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2015,31(24):232?238.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[10]Liu Z;Qiao H;Zhao Z,et al.Spatial distribution of high temperature stress at corn flowering stage in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China.[J]Transactions Chinese Soc,Agric.2015(46).
[11]Liu Z;Tang R.;Zhao Z,et al.Regionalization of maize cultivars cultivated in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China.[J]Transactions Chinese Soc.Agric,2015(46).
[12]陈嘉,赵祖亮,郭鸿飞,等.基于格网的多比例尺海量数据空间渲染方法[J].测绘通报,2016(11):60?63.Chen Jia,Zhao Zuliang,Guo Hongfei,et al.Multi-scale rendering method of massive geospatial data based on grid[J].Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping,2016(11):60?63.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]王珊珊,王宏起.技术创新扩散的影响因素综述[J].情报杂志,2012(6):197-201.Wang Shanshan,Wang Hongqi.A review on the influencing factors of technological innovation diffusion[J].Journal of Intelligence,2012(6):197-201.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]周密.技术空间扩散理论的发展及对我国的启示[J].科技进步与对策,2010(6):1-4.
[15]余迎新,许立新,康凯.技术创新空间扩散机理研究[J].河北大学学报(自然科学版),2002(2):124-128.
[16]曾刚,林兰.不同空间尺度的技术扩散影响因子研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2006(2):22-27.
[17]Wang W,Zhang X D,Xiao H X.Study on suitability evaluation model of new maize varieties[J].Computer and Computing Technologies in Agriculture,2007:457?470.
[18]王崇桃.中国玉米生产技术创新与扩散的动因分析[C]//中国软科学研究会.第七届软科学国际研讨会论文集中国卷(下).北京:中国软科学研究会:2012:90-98.
[19]赵军,符海月.GIS在人口重心迁移研究中的应用[J].测绘工程,2001(3):41-43.Zhao Jun,Fu Haiyue.Application of GIS in the studyof the migration of the population gravity center[J],Engineering of Surveying and Mapping,2001(3):41-43.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[20]李在军,管卫华,柯文前.中国区域消费与经济、人口重心演变的时间多尺度研究[J].经济地理,2014(1):7-14.Li Zaijun,Guan Weihua,Ke Wenqian.The regional gravity evolution of consumption,economy and population based on the multiple time scales in China[J].Economic Geography,2014(1):7-14.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[21]李光强,曾绍琴,邓敏.重心转移曲线在时空演化模式表达中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2013(8):940-944.Li Guangqiang,Zeng Shaoqin,Deng Min.Employing acentroid transferring curve to spatio-temporal evolution patterns[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan Unversity,2013(8):940-944.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[22]Gao X W,Feng Z J,Ge J F.Analysis of landscape security pattern in western mountains of Shiji-azhuang[J].Joint Conference on GIS and Built Environment,2008:71451.
[23]胡瑞法.新品种推广的数学模型及其在效益评价中的应用研究[J].农业技术经济,1991(2):1-3.
[24]刘笑明,李同昇,张建忠.基于小麦良种的农业技术创新扩散研究[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2011(2):148-153.Liu Xiaoming,Li Tongyi,Zhang Jianzhong.An empirical study on the spatial diffusion of agricultural technology innovation-a case of wheat-seed[J].System Sciences And Comprehensive Studies in Agriculture,2011(2):148-153.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[25]冯逃.地方性玉米品种“盛玉99”技术扩散实证研究[D].成都:四川农业大学,2014.Feng Tao.An Empirical Study of Local Corn Varieties'Technology Diffusion-Based in"Shengyu 99"in Dazhou[D].Chengdu:Sichuan Agricultural University,2014.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[26]柏娜,谭淑豪,张书怡.粮食生产重心转移及其生态影响研究-基于劳动力机会成本视角的分析[J].中国物价,2016(3):45-47,51.
[27]李乾.安徽省水稻生产布局变迁及优化研究[D].合肥:安徽农业大学,2016.Li Qian.The Study on the Layout Changes and Optimization of Rice Pproduction in Anhui Province[D].Hefei:Anhui Agricultural University,2016.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[28]陆彦婷,陆建峰,杨静宇.层次分类方法综述[J].模式识别与人工智能,2013,26(12):1130-1139.Lu Yanting,Lu Jianfeng,Yang Jingyu.A survey of hierarchical classification methods[J].Pattern Recognition&Artifical Intelligence,2013,26(12):1130-1139.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[29]李少昆.玉米生产技术创新?扩散[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.
[30]付俊,张玉雷,杨海龙,等.辽宁省近10年审定玉米品种分析[J].中国种业,2015(3):17?19.
[31]金万赫,张焕斌,隋东晖.延边主要玉米品种发展情况及发展趋势[J].农业开发与装备,2016(4):53.
[32]高岩,孙建锋.泾川县2015年玉米新品种比较试验[J].种子世界,2016(4):33?34.
[33]李季,韩一军,夏文来.玉米品种扩散过程及机制分析-以涿鹿县为例[J].农业技术经济,1997(1):28?32.
[34]王文娟.耐密早熟玉米新品系5038的丰产性、耐密性和稳产性初步研究[J].中国种业,2016(4):48?50.
[2]赵博,王丽英,蔡菲菲,等.我国种业发展现状、制约问题及战略对策研究[J].种子,2013(6):64-66.Zhao Bo,Wang Liying,Cai Feifei,et al.Study on current situation,problem,strategy of seed industry development in China[J].Seed,2013(6):64-66.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[3]佟屏亚.20世纪中国玉米品种改良的历程和成就[J].中国科技史料,2001(2):15.
[4]陈就就.玉米区域试验分析模型与方法的研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2012.Chen Jiujiu.Maize Regional Trial Analysis Models and Methods[D].Yangling:Northwest A&F University,2012.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[5]刘九洋.种子产业化现状及我国种业的发展趋势[D].郑州:河南农业大学,2009.Liu Jiuyang.Present Status and Development Trend of Seed Industry in China[D].Zhengzhou:He’nan Agricultural University,2009.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[6]王晶晶,李凤海,史振声,等.辽宁省不同生态区玉米品种适应性研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015(4):59-63.Wang Jingjing,Li Fenghai,Shi Zhensheng,et al.Adaptation of different maize hybrids in different ecological regions in Liaoning Province[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2015(4):59-63.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[7]杨扬,王凤格,赵久然,等.中国玉米品种审定现状分析[J].中国农业科学,2014(22):4360-4370.Yang Yang,Wang Fengge,Zhao Jiuran,et al.Analysisof the current situation of accredited maize varieties in China[J].Scientia Agriculture Sinica,2014(22):4360-4370.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[8]马泳.良种技术扩散的理论与实证研究[J].农民致富之友,2017(4):141.
[9]赵祖亮,曲艺伟,刘哲,等.玉米产量的品种与环境互作效应空间分布规律[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(24):232-238.Zhao Zuliang,Qu Yiwei,Liu Zhe,et al.Spatial distribution of interaction effect between variety and environment on maize yield[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2015,31(24):232?238.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[10]Liu Z;Qiao H;Zhao Z,et al.Spatial distribution of high temperature stress at corn flowering stage in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China.[J]Transactions Chinese Soc,Agric.2015(46).
[11]Liu Z;Tang R.;Zhao Z,et al.Regionalization of maize cultivars cultivated in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China.[J]Transactions Chinese Soc.Agric,2015(46).
[12]陈嘉,赵祖亮,郭鸿飞,等.基于格网的多比例尺海量数据空间渲染方法[J].测绘通报,2016(11):60?63.Chen Jia,Zhao Zuliang,Guo Hongfei,et al.Multi-scale rendering method of massive geospatial data based on grid[J].Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping,2016(11):60?63.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]王珊珊,王宏起.技术创新扩散的影响因素综述[J].情报杂志,2012(6):197-201.Wang Shanshan,Wang Hongqi.A review on the influencing factors of technological innovation diffusion[J].Journal of Intelligence,2012(6):197-201.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]周密.技术空间扩散理论的发展及对我国的启示[J].科技进步与对策,2010(6):1-4.
[15]余迎新,许立新,康凯.技术创新空间扩散机理研究[J].河北大学学报(自然科学版),2002(2):124-128.
[16]曾刚,林兰.不同空间尺度的技术扩散影响因子研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2006(2):22-27.
[17]Wang W,Zhang X D,Xiao H X.Study on suitability evaluation model of new maize varieties[J].Computer and Computing Technologies in Agriculture,2007:457?470.
[18]王崇桃.中国玉米生产技术创新与扩散的动因分析[C]//中国软科学研究会.第七届软科学国际研讨会论文集中国卷(下).北京:中国软科学研究会:2012:90-98.
[19]赵军,符海月.GIS在人口重心迁移研究中的应用[J].测绘工程,2001(3):41-43.Zhao Jun,Fu Haiyue.Application of GIS in the studyof the migration of the population gravity center[J],Engineering of Surveying and Mapping,2001(3):41-43.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[20]李在军,管卫华,柯文前.中国区域消费与经济、人口重心演变的时间多尺度研究[J].经济地理,2014(1):7-14.Li Zaijun,Guan Weihua,Ke Wenqian.The regional gravity evolution of consumption,economy and population based on the multiple time scales in China[J].Economic Geography,2014(1):7-14.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[21]李光强,曾绍琴,邓敏.重心转移曲线在时空演化模式表达中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2013(8):940-944.Li Guangqiang,Zeng Shaoqin,Deng Min.Employing acentroid transferring curve to spatio-temporal evolution patterns[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan Unversity,2013(8):940-944.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[22]Gao X W,Feng Z J,Ge J F.Analysis of landscape security pattern in western mountains of Shiji-azhuang[J].Joint Conference on GIS and Built Environment,2008:71451.
[23]胡瑞法.新品种推广的数学模型及其在效益评价中的应用研究[J].农业技术经济,1991(2):1-3.
[24]刘笑明,李同昇,张建忠.基于小麦良种的农业技术创新扩散研究[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2011(2):148-153.Liu Xiaoming,Li Tongyi,Zhang Jianzhong.An empirical study on the spatial diffusion of agricultural technology innovation-a case of wheat-seed[J].System Sciences And Comprehensive Studies in Agriculture,2011(2):148-153.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[25]冯逃.地方性玉米品种“盛玉99”技术扩散实证研究[D].成都:四川农业大学,2014.Feng Tao.An Empirical Study of Local Corn Varieties'Technology Diffusion-Based in"Shengyu 99"in Dazhou[D].Chengdu:Sichuan Agricultural University,2014.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[26]柏娜,谭淑豪,张书怡.粮食生产重心转移及其生态影响研究-基于劳动力机会成本视角的分析[J].中国物价,2016(3):45-47,51.
[27]李乾.安徽省水稻生产布局变迁及优化研究[D].合肥:安徽农业大学,2016.Li Qian.The Study on the Layout Changes and Optimization of Rice Pproduction in Anhui Province[D].Hefei:Anhui Agricultural University,2016.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[28]陆彦婷,陆建峰,杨静宇.层次分类方法综述[J].模式识别与人工智能,2013,26(12):1130-1139.Lu Yanting,Lu Jianfeng,Yang Jingyu.A survey of hierarchical classification methods[J].Pattern Recognition&Artifical Intelligence,2013,26(12):1130-1139.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[29]李少昆.玉米生产技术创新?扩散[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.
[30]付俊,张玉雷,杨海龙,等.辽宁省近10年审定玉米品种分析[J].中国种业,2015(3):17?19.
[31]金万赫,张焕斌,隋东晖.延边主要玉米品种发展情况及发展趋势[J].农业开发与装备,2016(4):53.
[32]高岩,孙建锋.泾川县2015年玉米新品种比较试验[J].种子世界,2016(4):33?34.
[33]李季,韩一军,夏文来.玉米品种扩散过程及机制分析-以涿鹿县为例[J].农业技术经济,1997(1):28?32.
[34]王文娟.耐密早熟玉米新品系5038的丰产性、耐密性和稳产性初步研究[J].中国种业,2016(4):48?50.