河流悬移质通量估算方法比较及结果影响因素分析
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摘要
水文测验中对水质方面浓度数据的观测时间间隔一般都比较长,对其年通量进行计算时存在较大的不确定性,而对悬移质泥沙一般都有比较密集的观测数据。以长系列悬移质泥沙数据为基础,按不同的时间间隔选出数据,用目前常用的6种估算方法计算得到通量;然后从算法的无偏性和稳定性两个方面对各方法的计算精度和适用范围进行分析。结果表明:A,B两种算法存在显著误差,估算值较真实值小;当采样效率高,测站流域面积较大时,C,D,E,F方法的系统误差几乎为0;各方法的估算结果与采样周期控制流域面积关系显著。所得结论对评估水质方面有关通量计算方法的精度有一定参考意义。
The interval of observation time of water quality concentration data in hydrological test is generally long, so there is great uncertainty in the calculation of annual flux of water quality concentration, while the suspended sediment generally has more dense observation data. The data are selected from long-term suspended sediment data according to different intervals, and the fluxes are calculated by six commonly used estimation methods. Then the calculation accuracy and application range of various methods are analyzed from the unbiasedness and stability of the algorithms. The conclusion can be used as a reference for evaluating the accuracy of calculation method in water quality flux.
The interval of observation time of water quality concentration data in hydrological test is generally long, so there is great uncertainty in the calculation of annual flux of water quality concentration, while the suspended sediment generally has more dense observation data. The data are selected from long-term suspended sediment data according to different intervals, and the fluxes are calculated by six commonly used estimation methods. Then the calculation accuracy and application range of various methods are analyzed from the unbiasedness and stability of the algorithms. The conclusion can be used as a reference for evaluating the accuracy of calculation method in water quality flux.
引文
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[2] Runkel R L,Crawford C G,Cohn T A.Load Estimator (LOADEST):A FORTRAN program for estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers[R].2004.
[3] Kumar S,Godrej A N,Grizzard T J.Watershed size effects on applicability of regression-based methods for fluvial loads estimation[J].Water Resources Research,2013,49(11):7698-7710.
[4] Kronvang B,Bruhn A J.Choice of sampling strategy and estimation method for calculating nitrogen and phosphorus transport in small lowland streams[J].Hydrological processes,1996,10(11):1483-1501.
[5] Ferguson R I.Accuracy and precision of methods for estimating river loads[J].Earth surface processes and landforms,1987,12(1):95-104.
[6] Moftakhari H R,Jay D A,Talke S A,et al.Estimation of historic flows and sediment loads to San Francisco Bay,1849–2011[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015(529):1247-1261.
[7] 沈志良.长江氮的输送通量[J].水科学进展,2004,15(6):752-759.
[8] 刘新成,沈焕庭,黄清辉.长江入河口区生源要素的浓度变化及通量估算[J].海洋与湖沼,2002(3):332-340.
[9] 王晖.淮河干流水质断面污染物年通量估算[J].水资源保护,2004,20(6):37-39.
[10] Webb B W,Phillips J M,Walling D E,et al.Load estimation methodologies for British rivers and their relevance to the LOIS RACS (R) programme[J].Science of the Total Environment,1997(194):379-389.
[11] Coynel A,Sch?fer J,Hurtrez J E,et al.Sampling frequency and accuracy of SPM flux estimates in two contrasted drainage basins[J].Science of the Total Environment,2004,330(1-3):233-247.
[12] Johnes P J.Uncertainties in annual riverine phosphorus load estimation:impact of load estimation methodology,sampling frequency,baseflow index and catchment population density[J].Journal of Hydrology,2007,332(1-2):241-258.
[13] 富国.河流污染物通量估算方法分析 (Ⅰ):时段通量估算方法比较分析[J].环境科学研究,2003,16(1):1-4.
[14] 富国,雷坤.河流污染物通量估算方法分析 (Ⅱ):时空平均离散通量误差判断[J].环境科学研究,2003,16(1):5-9.
[15] 郝晨林,邓义祥,汪永辉,等.河流污染物通量估算方法筛选及误差分析[J].环境科学学报,2012,32(7):1670-1676.
[16] 水利部长江水利委员会.水文年鉴[M].武汉:长江出版社,1980.
[17] 王君丽,姜国强,任秀文,等.流域污染物通量测算方法研究[J].新疆环境保护,2011(2):1-7.
[18] 李娜,盛虎,何成杰,等.基于统计模型 LOADEST 的宝象河污染物通量估算[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2012,20(3):355-366.
[19] 王晖.淮河干流水质断面污染物年通量估算[J].水资源保护,2004,20(6):37-39.
[20] Metropolis N,Ulam S.Monte Carlo Method[J].American Statistical Association,1979,44(247):335-341.