郑汴洛城市化及人口和产业承载变化的评估研究
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摘要
针对郑州、开封、洛阳(郑汴洛)三市城市化过程中的土地、人口和产业发展问题,本文提出一种评估城市扩展及其对应人口/产业土地承载密度变化的方法,并在郑汴洛地区开展实践研究。结果显示:三市的城市用地均处于快速扩展中,且城市用地与农业用地变化呈负相关,说明:城市扩展更多是以侵占周边农田为代价;三市单位城市用地的人口承载力下降(郑汴洛三市对应的趋势值分别为-0.05,-0.06,-0.08),而经济承载力上升,说明其经济城市化表现突出,而城市的人口聚集水平有待进一步提升。城市化进程一方面需提高土地利用效率;另一方面也需提升单位城市用地的人口承载力,协同推进人口、产业和土地城市化。
According to the problems on urban land sprawl and corresponding growth process of the population and economy in Zhengzhou,Kaifeng and Luoyang( Zheng-Bian-Luo),this paper proposed a method to study the changes of urban expansion,and population and industry density of urban land carrying. The results showed that,the urban land of three cities were in the process of rapid expansion. Urban land and agricultural land showed a negative relationship,indicating urban land sprawl process corresponded to the declining process of cultivable land. The population carrying capacity of unit's urban land declined( Zheng-Bian-Luo,corresponding slope values:-0.05,-0.06,-0.08). While the economic carrying capacity of unit's urban land raised in the three cities. Which corresponded to that the economic urbanization was outstanding,while the population urbanization was relatively backward. Overall,the urbanization process should improve the efficiency of urban land use. Moreover,urbanization also needed to improve the population carrying capacity of the unit's urban land,and made the population,industry and land urbanization cooperated to promote in future.
According to the problems on urban land sprawl and corresponding growth process of the population and economy in Zhengzhou,Kaifeng and Luoyang( Zheng-Bian-Luo),this paper proposed a method to study the changes of urban expansion,and population and industry density of urban land carrying. The results showed that,the urban land of three cities were in the process of rapid expansion. Urban land and agricultural land showed a negative relationship,indicating urban land sprawl process corresponded to the declining process of cultivable land. The population carrying capacity of unit's urban land declined( Zheng-Bian-Luo,corresponding slope values:-0.05,-0.06,-0.08). While the economic carrying capacity of unit's urban land raised in the three cities. Which corresponded to that the economic urbanization was outstanding,while the population urbanization was relatively backward. Overall,the urbanization process should improve the efficiency of urban land use. Moreover,urbanization also needed to improve the population carrying capacity of the unit's urban land,and made the population,industry and land urbanization cooperated to promote in future.
引文
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[2]袁晓玲,贺斌,卢晓璐,等.中国新型城镇化质量评估及空间异质性分析[J].城市发展研究,2017,24(6):125-132.
[3]薛龙丽,李景文,王文靖,等.基于ECA-GIS模型的土地利用时空变化模拟方法[J].测绘与空间地理信息,2017,40(7):54-56.
[4]鲁金萍,杨振武,孙久文.京津冀城市群经济联系测度研究[J].城市发展研究,2015,22(1):5-10.
[5]傅忠贤,蒲小梅,程子彪.经济-空间-人口视角的四川城镇化水平研究[J].西华师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2014(6):85-89.
[6]朱江丽,李子联.长三角城市群产业-人口-空间耦合协调发展研究[J].中国人口资源与环境,2015,25(2):75-82.
[7]戴均良,高晓路,杜守帅.城镇化进程中的空间扩张和土地利用控制[J].地理研究,2010,29(10):1 822-1 832.
[8]中国城市经济学会中小城市经济发展委员会,《中国中小城市发展报告》编纂委员会.中国中小城市发展报告[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2010.
[9]崔耀平,刘纪远,张学珍,等.京津唐城市群土地利用变化的区域增温效应模拟[J].生态学报,2015,35(4):993-1 003.
[10] CUI Y P,XU X L,DONG J W,et al. Influence of urbanization factors on surface urban heat island intensity:a comparison of countries at different developmental phases[J]. Sustainability,2016,8(8):706.
[11]崔耀平,刘纪远,王军邦,等.城市不同下垫面辐射平衡的模拟分析[J].科学通报,2012,57(6):465-473.
[12]贺艳华,邓凯韶,唐承丽,等.长株潭城市群城乡人口流动特征及动力机制[J].经济地理,2017,37(1):74-81.
[13]陆大道.我国的城镇化进程与空间扩张[J].城市规划学刊,2007(4):47-52.
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