“保险+期货”试点可以提高农户种粮积极性吗?——基于农户参与意愿中介效应与政府补贴满意度调节效应的分析
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摘要
中国农产品供给长期偏紧,国内外农产品市场波动呈加剧趋势。"保险+期货"试点是中国农业风险管理创新的有益探索。本文采用Logit回归模型,应用心理学研究领域的中介效应与调节效应检验方法,深入探讨了"保险+期货"试点对保护农户种粮积极性、保障国家粮食安全的作用机制。结果发现,"保险+期货"试点可以有效提高农户种粮积极性,发挥促进粮食生产、保障粮食安全的重要作用;农户未来参与试点意愿是参加试点与提高农户种粮积极性的中介变量,其间接影响占比为27.693%;政府补贴满意度在中介变量作用于农户种粮积极性的路径中具有调节效应,农户对政府补贴越满意,未来参与试点意愿对农户种粮积极性的正向影响越强。可以认为,现有农业补贴政策与"保险+期货"试点具有相互补充促进的关系,未来中国农业风险管理体系建设需注重"保险+期货"试点的长期可持续发展。
China's agricultural supply has been on the tight side,and the fluctuation of domestic and foreign agricultural products market is increasing.The pilot project of "Insurance plus Futures" is a useful exploration for agricultural risk management in China and innovation can be witnessed in the field.This study uses a Logit regression model to carry out an empirical analysis and applies the test methods of mediating effect and moderating effect to probe deeply into the mechanism of the pilot project of "Insurance plus Futures" in promoting farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and ensuring national food security.The results show that the pilot project of "Insurance plus Futures" can effectively improve farmers' enthusiasm for grain cultivation,which plays an important role in promoting food production and ensuring food security.Farmers' willingness to participate in the pilot project is an intermediary variable between participation in the pilot project and improving farmers' enthusiasm for grain cultivation,with an indirect impact of 27.693%.Farmers' satisfaction with government subsidies plays a moderating role,which means the higher the degree of farmers' satisfaction with government subsidies,the stronger the positive impact of willingness to participate in the pilot project on farmers' enthusiasm for grain cultivation in the future.It can be concluded that the existing agricultural subsidy policy and the pilot project of "Insurance plus Futures" model are complementary.In the future,attention needs to be paid to the long-term sustainable development of "Insurance plus Futures"in the construction of China's agricultural risk management system.
China's agricultural supply has been on the tight side,and the fluctuation of domestic and foreign agricultural products market is increasing.The pilot project of "Insurance plus Futures" is a useful exploration for agricultural risk management in China and innovation can be witnessed in the field.This study uses a Logit regression model to carry out an empirical analysis and applies the test methods of mediating effect and moderating effect to probe deeply into the mechanism of the pilot project of "Insurance plus Futures" in promoting farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and ensuring national food security.The results show that the pilot project of "Insurance plus Futures" can effectively improve farmers' enthusiasm for grain cultivation,which plays an important role in promoting food production and ensuring food security.Farmers' willingness to participate in the pilot project is an intermediary variable between participation in the pilot project and improving farmers' enthusiasm for grain cultivation,with an indirect impact of 27.693%.Farmers' satisfaction with government subsidies plays a moderating role,which means the higher the degree of farmers' satisfaction with government subsidies,the stronger the positive impact of willingness to participate in the pilot project on farmers' enthusiasm for grain cultivation in the future.It can be concluded that the existing agricultural subsidy policy and the pilot project of "Insurance plus Futures" model are complementary.In the future,attention needs to be paid to the long-term sustainable development of "Insurance plus Futures"in the construction of China's agricultural risk management system.
引文
1.安毅、方蕊,2016:《我国农业价格保险与农产品期货的结合模式和政策建议》,《经济纵横》第7期。
2.安毅、方蕊,2018:《我国农产品市场风险变化与新型防控体系建设》,《经济纵横》第10期。
3.蔡胜勋、秦敏花,2017:《我国农业保险与农产品期货市场的连接机制研究——以“保险+期货”为例》,《农业现代化研究》第3期。
4.陈瑞、郑毓煌、刘文静,2013:《中介效应分析:原理、程序、Bootstrap方法及其应用》,《营销科学学报》第4期。
5.靳庭良,2013:《粮食主产区农户种粮意愿及其影响因素分析》,《统计与决策》第17期。
6.李亚茹、孙蓉,2017:《农产品期货价格保险及其在价格机制改革中的作用》,《保险研究》第3期。
7.刘克春,2010:《粮食生产补贴政策对农户粮食种植决策行为的影响与作用机理分析——以江西省为例》,《中国农村经济》第2期。
8.龙方、彭澧丽、卜蓓、杨重玉,2012:《农民种粮意愿的影响因素分析——基于湖南省951户农户的调查》,《湖南科技大学学报(社会科学版)》第6期。
9.孙蓉、李亚茹,2016:《农产品期货价格保险及其在国家粮食安全中的保障功效》,《农村经济》第6期。
10.谭智心、周振,2014:《农业补贴制度的历史轨迹与农民种粮积极性的关联度》,《改革》第1期。
11.唐金成、曹斯蔚,2017:《精准扶贫视角的“保险+期货”模式风险管理研究》,《金融与经济》第7期。
12.温忠麟、侯杰泰、张雷,2005:《调节效应与中介效应的比较和应用》,《心理学报》第37卷第2期。
13.温忠麟、叶宝娟,2014:《中介效应分析:方法和模型发展》,《心理科学进展》第22卷第5期。
14.姚增福、郑少锋,2010:《种植大户生产行为意愿影响因素分析——基于TPB理论和黑龙江省378户微观调查数据》,《农业技术经济》第8期。
15.叶明华、庹国柱,2016:《农业保险与农产品期货》,《中国金融》第8期。
16.袁宁,2013:《粮食补贴政策对农户种粮积极性的影响研究——基于农户问卷调查的实证研究》,《上海财经大学学报》第15卷第2期。
17.周清明,2009:《农户种粮意愿的影响因素分析》,《农业技术经济》第5期。
18.朱俊生、叶明华,2017:《“保险+期货”试点效果评估及建议》,《重庆理工大学学报(社会科学版)》第8 期。
19.Baron,R. M.,and D.A. Kenny,1986,“The Moderator-mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research:Conceptual,Strategic,and Statistical Considerations”,Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,51:1173-1182.
20.Binswanger,H. P.,1980,“Attitudes Toward Risk:Experimental Measurement in Rural India”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,62(3):395-407.
21.Herr,N. R.,2013,“Mediation with Dichotomous Outcomes”,Department of Psychology,American University Working Paper,http://www.nrhpsych.com/mediation/logmed.html.
22.Illukpitiya,P.,and C. Gopalakrishnan,2004,“Decision-making in Soil Conservation:Application of A Behavioral Model to Potato Farmers in Sri Lanka”,Land Use Policy,21(4):321-331.
22.Mac Kinnon,D. P.,and J. H. Dwyer,1993,“Estimating Mediated Effects in Prevention Studies”,Evaluation Review,17(2):144-158.
24.Willock,J.,I. J. Deary,M. M. Mcgregor,A. Sutherland,G. Edwards-Jones,O. Morgan,B. Dent,R. Grieve,G. Gibson,and E. Austin,1999,“Farmers’ Attitudes,Objectives,Behaviors and Personality Traits:The Edinburgh Study of Decision Making on Farms”,Journal of Vocational Behavior,54(1):5-36.
2.安毅、方蕊,2018:《我国农产品市场风险变化与新型防控体系建设》,《经济纵横》第10期。
3.蔡胜勋、秦敏花,2017:《我国农业保险与农产品期货市场的连接机制研究——以“保险+期货”为例》,《农业现代化研究》第3期。
4.陈瑞、郑毓煌、刘文静,2013:《中介效应分析:原理、程序、Bootstrap方法及其应用》,《营销科学学报》第4期。
5.靳庭良,2013:《粮食主产区农户种粮意愿及其影响因素分析》,《统计与决策》第17期。
6.李亚茹、孙蓉,2017:《农产品期货价格保险及其在价格机制改革中的作用》,《保险研究》第3期。
7.刘克春,2010:《粮食生产补贴政策对农户粮食种植决策行为的影响与作用机理分析——以江西省为例》,《中国农村经济》第2期。
8.龙方、彭澧丽、卜蓓、杨重玉,2012:《农民种粮意愿的影响因素分析——基于湖南省951户农户的调查》,《湖南科技大学学报(社会科学版)》第6期。
9.孙蓉、李亚茹,2016:《农产品期货价格保险及其在国家粮食安全中的保障功效》,《农村经济》第6期。
10.谭智心、周振,2014:《农业补贴制度的历史轨迹与农民种粮积极性的关联度》,《改革》第1期。
11.唐金成、曹斯蔚,2017:《精准扶贫视角的“保险+期货”模式风险管理研究》,《金融与经济》第7期。
12.温忠麟、侯杰泰、张雷,2005:《调节效应与中介效应的比较和应用》,《心理学报》第37卷第2期。
13.温忠麟、叶宝娟,2014:《中介效应分析:方法和模型发展》,《心理科学进展》第22卷第5期。
14.姚增福、郑少锋,2010:《种植大户生产行为意愿影响因素分析——基于TPB理论和黑龙江省378户微观调查数据》,《农业技术经济》第8期。
15.叶明华、庹国柱,2016:《农业保险与农产品期货》,《中国金融》第8期。
16.袁宁,2013:《粮食补贴政策对农户种粮积极性的影响研究——基于农户问卷调查的实证研究》,《上海财经大学学报》第15卷第2期。
17.周清明,2009:《农户种粮意愿的影响因素分析》,《农业技术经济》第5期。
18.朱俊生、叶明华,2017:《“保险+期货”试点效果评估及建议》,《重庆理工大学学报(社会科学版)》第8 期。
19.Baron,R. M.,and D.A. Kenny,1986,“The Moderator-mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research:Conceptual,Strategic,and Statistical Considerations”,Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,51:1173-1182.
20.Binswanger,H. P.,1980,“Attitudes Toward Risk:Experimental Measurement in Rural India”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,62(3):395-407.
21.Herr,N. R.,2013,“Mediation with Dichotomous Outcomes”,Department of Psychology,American University Working Paper,http://www.nrhpsych.com/mediation/logmed.html.
22.Illukpitiya,P.,and C. Gopalakrishnan,2004,“Decision-making in Soil Conservation:Application of A Behavioral Model to Potato Farmers in Sri Lanka”,Land Use Policy,21(4):321-331.
22.Mac Kinnon,D. P.,and J. H. Dwyer,1993,“Estimating Mediated Effects in Prevention Studies”,Evaluation Review,17(2):144-158.
24.Willock,J.,I. J. Deary,M. M. Mcgregor,A. Sutherland,G. Edwards-Jones,O. Morgan,B. Dent,R. Grieve,G. Gibson,and E. Austin,1999,“Farmers’ Attitudes,Objectives,Behaviors and Personality Traits:The Edinburgh Study of Decision Making on Farms”,Journal of Vocational Behavior,54(1):5-36.