城镇化与我国环境污染关系的实证研究
|
摘要
本文首先从居民生活、工业化和城市建设角度探讨了城镇化影响我国能源消费和碳排放的内在机理,在此基础上,基于中国30个省(市、区)2000~2015年省级面板数据,采用差分广义矩估计方法实证研究了城镇化对我国能源消费和碳排放的影响,研究结果表明,城镇化将显著增加我国的能源消费和碳排放总量,表明新型城镇化建设将加剧我国环境污染,如何处理好生态文明建设和新型城镇化之间的关系已成为我国当前急需解决的关键问题,适当控制城镇化进程是践行绿色发展理念的重要手段。研究还表明,产业结构、能源结构和市场化进程对能源消费和碳排放的影响效应一致,即产业结构的高级化和能源结构的优化调整将减少碳排放量,而市场化进程的加快会导致碳排放量的增加,进而加剧我国的环境污染。
This paper,from the perspective of living,industrialization and city construction,discusses how urbanization influences mechanism of China's energy consumption and carbon emissions. On this basis,provincial panel data 30 provinces( cities,districts) Chinese from 2000 to 2015 was adopted,the influence of urbanization on China' s energy consumption and carbon emissions was carried out by the empirical estimation of generalized moment method,and the results show that the urbanization will significantly increase China's energy consumption and carbon emissions,that the construction of the new urbanization will aggravate the environmental pollution in our country. How to deal with the relationship between ecological civilization construction and new urbanization has become a key problem to solve in our country,and the appropriate control Urbanization is an important means to practice the green development concept.The study also showed that the industrial structure,energy structure and the process of market impact on energy consumption and carbon emission effect,namely the optimization and adjustment of energy structure and advanced industrial structure will reduce carbon emissions and accelerating the process of marketization will lead to the increase of carbon emissions,thereby increasing the environmental pollution in china.
This paper,from the perspective of living,industrialization and city construction,discusses how urbanization influences mechanism of China's energy consumption and carbon emissions. On this basis,provincial panel data 30 provinces( cities,districts) Chinese from 2000 to 2015 was adopted,the influence of urbanization on China' s energy consumption and carbon emissions was carried out by the empirical estimation of generalized moment method,and the results show that the urbanization will significantly increase China's energy consumption and carbon emissions,that the construction of the new urbanization will aggravate the environmental pollution in our country. How to deal with the relationship between ecological civilization construction and new urbanization has become a key problem to solve in our country,and the appropriate control Urbanization is an important means to practice the green development concept.The study also showed that the industrial structure,energy structure and the process of market impact on energy consumption and carbon emission effect,namely the optimization and adjustment of energy structure and advanced industrial structure will reduce carbon emissions and accelerating the process of marketization will lead to the increase of carbon emissions,thereby increasing the environmental pollution in china.
引文
[1]李强,魏巍.碳排放约束视角下的全要素能源效率及影响因素研究[J].软科学,2015(4):71-74.
[2]林伯强,刘希颖.中国城市化阶段的碳排放:影响因素和减排策略[J].经济研究,2010(8):66-78.
[3]Parikh J,Shukla V.Urbanization,energy use and greenhouse effects in economic development:results from a crossnational study of developing countries[J].Global Environmental Change,1995,5(2):87-103.
[4]刘耀彬.中国城市化与能源消费关系的动态计量分析[J].财经研究,2007,33(11):72-81.
[5]Poumanyvong P,Kaneko S.Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions?A cross-country analysis[J].Ecological Economics,2010,70(2):434-444.
[6]成金华,陈军.中国城市化进程中的能源消费区域差异——基于面板数据的实证研究[J].经济评论,2009(3):38-46.
[7]王蕾,魏后凯.中国城镇化对能源消费影响的实证研究[J].资源科学,2014(6):1235-1246.
[8]王子敏,范从来.城市化与能源消耗间关系实证研究[J].城市问题,2012(8):8-14.
[9]林卫斌,谢丽娜,苏剑.城镇化进程中的生活能源需求分析[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2014(5):122-129.
[10]徐丽娜,赵涛,孙金帅,杨晓峰.基于SVAR模型的山西省城镇化与能源消费的动态冲击效应分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014(9):8-13.
[11]冯玲,吝涛,赵千钧.城镇居民生活能耗与碳排放动态特征分析[J].中国人口资源与环境,2011,21(5):93-100.
[12]陈诗一.节能减排与中国工业的双赢发展:2009-2049[J].经济研究,2010(3):129-143.
[13]周银香.基于系统动力学视角的城市交通能源消耗及碳排放研究——以杭州市为例[J].城市发展研究,2012,19(9):99-105.
[14]Jones D W.How urbanization affects energy-use in developing countries[J].Energy Police,1991,19(7):621–630.
[15]York D.Structural Influences on Energy Production in South and East Asia,1971-2002[J].Sociological Forum,2007,22(4):532-554.
[16]Liddle B.Demographic dynamics and per capital environmental impact:using panel regressions and household decompositions to examine population and transport[J].Population and Environment,2004,26(1):23-39.
[17]卢祖丹.我国城镇化对碳排放的影响研究[J].中国科技论坛,2011(7):134-140.
[18]王芳,周兴.人口结构、城镇化与碳排放——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究[J].中国人口科学,2012(2):47-56.
[19]郭郡郡,刘成玉,刘玉萍.城镇化、大城市化与碳排放——基于跨国数据的实证研究[J].城市问题,2013(2):2-10.
[20]万宇艳.城镇化与碳排放:基于异质面板模型的检验[J].内蒙古社会科学(汉文版),2014(5):104-108.
[21]唐李伟等.城镇化对生活碳排放影响的门槛特征与地区差异[J].管理学报,2015(2):291-298.
[22]赵忠秀,王苒,闫云凤.贸易隐含碳与污染天堂假说—环境库兹涅茨曲线成因的再解释[J].国际贸易问题,2013(7):93-101.
[23]梁琳琳,卢启程.基于碳夹点分析的中国能源结构优化研究[J].资源科学,2015(2):291-298.
[24]王小鲁,樊纲,余静文.中国分省份市场化指数报告(2016)[M].社会科学文献出版社·经济与管理出版分社,2017.
[25]许和连,邓玉萍.外商直接投资导致了中国的环境污染吗?——基于中国省际面板数据的空间计量研究[J].管理世界,2012(2):30-43.
(1)数据来源于《2015年BP世界能源统计年鉴》。
(1)数据来源于《中国家庭能源消费研究报告(2014)》。
(1)樊纲等人公布的《中国市场化指数》从政府与市场的关系、非国有经济的发展、产品市场的发育程度、要素市场的发育程度和市场中介组织发育和法律制度环境五个方面指标来反映市场化程度。
[2]林伯强,刘希颖.中国城市化阶段的碳排放:影响因素和减排策略[J].经济研究,2010(8):66-78.
[3]Parikh J,Shukla V.Urbanization,energy use and greenhouse effects in economic development:results from a crossnational study of developing countries[J].Global Environmental Change,1995,5(2):87-103.
[4]刘耀彬.中国城市化与能源消费关系的动态计量分析[J].财经研究,2007,33(11):72-81.
[5]Poumanyvong P,Kaneko S.Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions?A cross-country analysis[J].Ecological Economics,2010,70(2):434-444.
[6]成金华,陈军.中国城市化进程中的能源消费区域差异——基于面板数据的实证研究[J].经济评论,2009(3):38-46.
[7]王蕾,魏后凯.中国城镇化对能源消费影响的实证研究[J].资源科学,2014(6):1235-1246.
[8]王子敏,范从来.城市化与能源消耗间关系实证研究[J].城市问题,2012(8):8-14.
[9]林卫斌,谢丽娜,苏剑.城镇化进程中的生活能源需求分析[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2014(5):122-129.
[10]徐丽娜,赵涛,孙金帅,杨晓峰.基于SVAR模型的山西省城镇化与能源消费的动态冲击效应分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014(9):8-13.
[11]冯玲,吝涛,赵千钧.城镇居民生活能耗与碳排放动态特征分析[J].中国人口资源与环境,2011,21(5):93-100.
[12]陈诗一.节能减排与中国工业的双赢发展:2009-2049[J].经济研究,2010(3):129-143.
[13]周银香.基于系统动力学视角的城市交通能源消耗及碳排放研究——以杭州市为例[J].城市发展研究,2012,19(9):99-105.
[14]Jones D W.How urbanization affects energy-use in developing countries[J].Energy Police,1991,19(7):621–630.
[15]York D.Structural Influences on Energy Production in South and East Asia,1971-2002[J].Sociological Forum,2007,22(4):532-554.
[16]Liddle B.Demographic dynamics and per capital environmental impact:using panel regressions and household decompositions to examine population and transport[J].Population and Environment,2004,26(1):23-39.
[17]卢祖丹.我国城镇化对碳排放的影响研究[J].中国科技论坛,2011(7):134-140.
[18]王芳,周兴.人口结构、城镇化与碳排放——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究[J].中国人口科学,2012(2):47-56.
[19]郭郡郡,刘成玉,刘玉萍.城镇化、大城市化与碳排放——基于跨国数据的实证研究[J].城市问题,2013(2):2-10.
[20]万宇艳.城镇化与碳排放:基于异质面板模型的检验[J].内蒙古社会科学(汉文版),2014(5):104-108.
[21]唐李伟等.城镇化对生活碳排放影响的门槛特征与地区差异[J].管理学报,2015(2):291-298.
[22]赵忠秀,王苒,闫云凤.贸易隐含碳与污染天堂假说—环境库兹涅茨曲线成因的再解释[J].国际贸易问题,2013(7):93-101.
[23]梁琳琳,卢启程.基于碳夹点分析的中国能源结构优化研究[J].资源科学,2015(2):291-298.
[24]王小鲁,樊纲,余静文.中国分省份市场化指数报告(2016)[M].社会科学文献出版社·经济与管理出版分社,2017.
[25]许和连,邓玉萍.外商直接投资导致了中国的环境污染吗?——基于中国省际面板数据的空间计量研究[J].管理世界,2012(2):30-43.
(1)数据来源于《2015年BP世界能源统计年鉴》。
(1)数据来源于《中国家庭能源消费研究报告(2014)》。
(1)樊纲等人公布的《中国市场化指数》从政府与市场的关系、非国有经济的发展、产品市场的发育程度、要素市场的发育程度和市场中介组织发育和法律制度环境五个方面指标来反映市场化程度。