福建省2000-2020年间废弃物处理温室气体排放估算及趋势预测
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摘要
基于福建省废弃物处理活动水平数据,按照《省级温室气体清单编制指南》,估算了2000-2015年福建省废弃物处理过程中的温室气体排放量,进行了不确定性分析,预测了排放趋势.研究表明,在2000-2015年间,温室气体碳排放量总体上呈现较大幅度波动上升的趋势;废水处理是福建省废弃物处理部门碳排放的主要来源,生活垃圾填埋处理居次,废弃物焚烧处理居于第3位.福建省废弃物处理温室气体排放量计算结果的不确定性为21. 4%.通过灰色GM (1,1)预测模型,对福建省2016-2020年废弃物处理过程的碳排放量进行预测.结果表明,在现有技术水平下,福建省废弃物处理碳排放量总体上将持续逐年增加,预计2020年的碳排放量达761. 22万t,将比2010年增加45. 6%.
Based on the data of waste treatment activities in Fujian Province,the greenhouse gas emissions during the waste treatment process in Fujian Province from 2000 to 2015 were estimated according to the "Guidelines for the Preparation of Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories",and their uncertainties and emission trends were analyzed. It was found that the carbon emissions from greenhouse gases fluctuated greatly and increased from 2000 to 2015; Waste water treatment was the major source of carbon emissions from the waste disposal sector in Fujian Province,the disposal of domestic waste landfills ranked the second,and the waste incineration treatment ranked the third. The uncertainty of the calculation results of waste gas treatment greenhouse gas emissions in Fujian Province was 21. 4%. Through the grey GM(1,1) model,the carbon emissions of the waste treatment process in Fujian Province from 2016 to 2020 were predicted. The results showed that the carbon emissions from waste disposal in Fujian Province would continue to increase year by year. It was expected that the carbon emissions in 2020 would reach 7,612,200 tons,which would increase by 45. 6% over 2010.
Based on the data of waste treatment activities in Fujian Province,the greenhouse gas emissions during the waste treatment process in Fujian Province from 2000 to 2015 were estimated according to the "Guidelines for the Preparation of Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories",and their uncertainties and emission trends were analyzed. It was found that the carbon emissions from greenhouse gases fluctuated greatly and increased from 2000 to 2015; Waste water treatment was the major source of carbon emissions from the waste disposal sector in Fujian Province,the disposal of domestic waste landfills ranked the second,and the waste incineration treatment ranked the third. The uncertainty of the calculation results of waste gas treatment greenhouse gas emissions in Fujian Province was 21. 4%. Through the grey GM(1,1) model,the carbon emissions of the waste treatment process in Fujian Province from 2016 to 2020 were predicted. The results showed that the carbon emissions from waste disposal in Fujian Province would continue to increase year by year. It was expected that the carbon emissions in 2020 would reach 7,612,200 tons,which would increase by 45. 6% over 2010.
引文
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[6]黄洵,黄民生,黄飞萍.福建省温室气体排放影响因素分析[J].热带地理,2013,33(6):674-680.
[7] IPCC. 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories[R]. Kanagawa:Institute for Global Environmental Strategies,2006.
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[9] KENNEDY C,STEINBERGER J,GASSON B,et al. Methodology for inventorying greenhouse gas emissions from global cities[J]. Energy Policy,2010,38(9):4828-4837.
[10]国家发展和改革委员会应对气候变化司.省级温室气体清单编制指南[R]. 2011:52-77.
[11]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.中国城市建设统计年鉴[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2001-2016.
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[15]福建省统计局,国家统计局福建调查总队.福建统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2001-2016.
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[17]师晓琼,赵先贵.温室气体排放动态变化及影响因素研究——以河南省为例[J].陕西农业科学,2014,60(7):34-38.
[18] IPCC. Climate change 1995:the science of climate change,contribution of working groupⅠto the second assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.
[19] DENG J L. Control problem of grey system[J]. Systems and Control Letters,1982,5(1):288-294.
[20]边晶.广东省碳排放的影响因素分析及趋势预测[D].广州:暨南大学,2013.
[21]路正南,彭沙沙,王健.基于IPCC清单编制法的碳排放灰色预测——以江苏省为例[J].技术经济与管理研究,2013(9):87-91.
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