基于EEMD的华北平原1901-2015年旱涝灾害分析
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摘要
采用一种适用于非线性、非平稳序列的信号提取方法 -EEMD,基于1901-2015华北平原的266个格点的标准化降水蒸散指数,确定了旱涝灾害等级序列,分析了旱涝灾害演变的周期规律及旱涝等级频率的空间分布。结果表明:1)SPEI-12表征的旱涝灾害等级序列在1940年出现了突变,干旱灾害集中在1940年之前,洪涝灾害集中在1940年之后,年际尺度上存在平均周期为4年和8年的波动周期,年代际尺度上存在着13年、29年、46年的平均波动周期。2)极端干旱和极端洪涝分别发生556次和655次,分别占旱涝发生总次数的1. 76%和2. 08%,但总体干旱频率(19. 46%)明显高于洪涝频率(16. 43%),气候整体偏干。3) SPEI-3表征的旱涝灾害等级序列经EEMD分解后,春季1994年以后洪涝灾害等级逐渐增高。夏季旱涝灾害等级处在4以下且在1982年后干旱灾害开始加重。秋季1993年以后由干旱灾害转为洪涝灾害。冬季干旱灾害有逐年加强趋势。4)不同旱涝灾害等级的频率季节差异显著,旱涝灾害主要发生在夏季。空间上,干旱灾害主要分布在河南西部和北部、山东西部和南部、河北北部。洪涝灾害主要集中在河南北部和中部,山东西部和南部、河北西北部以及北京、天津市。本研究能为该区农业健康发展提供参考。
Ensemble empirical mode decomposition was applied to analyze the climate time series in this paper.Based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index of 266 grids from 1901 to 2015,then the drought and flood disasters rating sequence were identified,the periodicity of drought and flood disasters and the spatial distribution of frequency of them were analyzed. The following results were reached:(1) The mutation year of the series of drought and flood disasters characterized by SPEI-12 was 1940,the drought disasters mainly occurred before 1940,and the flood disasters concentrated after 1940,the fluctuation cycles were 4 years and 8 year on inter-annual scale,there were 13 years,29 years and 46 years on the decadal scale.(2) Extreme droughts and extreme floods occurred 556 times and 655 times,accounting for 1. 76% and 2. 08% of the total number,respectively,which indicating that extreme floods occurred more frequently than extreme drought disasters. However,the frequency of droughts(19. 46%) was higher than that of floods(16. 43%),the weather was partial drought.(3) The sequence of drought and flood disasters characterized by SPEI-3 has been decomposed by EEMD method,the res curve of spring showed that the level of floods had been gradually increasing since1994. The level of summer droughts and floods was below 4 and the summer droughts began to worsen after1982. In the autumn,the drought disasters turned into a flood disaster after 1993. Winter drought disaster had been strengthened year by year.(4) The frequencies of different levels of drought and flood showed significant differences in four seasons. The drought and flood disasters were mainly concentrated in the summer. Droughts disasters were mainly distributed in the western and northern parts of Henan Province,western and southern parts of Shandong Province,the northern part of Hebei province. Flood disasters were mainly concentrated in the northern and central parts of Henan Province,the west and south of Shandong Province,the northwest of Hebei Province,and Beijing and Tianjin city.
Ensemble empirical mode decomposition was applied to analyze the climate time series in this paper.Based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index of 266 grids from 1901 to 2015,then the drought and flood disasters rating sequence were identified,the periodicity of drought and flood disasters and the spatial distribution of frequency of them were analyzed. The following results were reached:(1) The mutation year of the series of drought and flood disasters characterized by SPEI-12 was 1940,the drought disasters mainly occurred before 1940,and the flood disasters concentrated after 1940,the fluctuation cycles were 4 years and 8 year on inter-annual scale,there were 13 years,29 years and 46 years on the decadal scale.(2) Extreme droughts and extreme floods occurred 556 times and 655 times,accounting for 1. 76% and 2. 08% of the total number,respectively,which indicating that extreme floods occurred more frequently than extreme drought disasters. However,the frequency of droughts(19. 46%) was higher than that of floods(16. 43%),the weather was partial drought.(3) The sequence of drought and flood disasters characterized by SPEI-3 has been decomposed by EEMD method,the res curve of spring showed that the level of floods had been gradually increasing since1994. The level of summer droughts and floods was below 4 and the summer droughts began to worsen after1982. In the autumn,the drought disasters turned into a flood disaster after 1993. Winter drought disaster had been strengthened year by year.(4) The frequencies of different levels of drought and flood showed significant differences in four seasons. The drought and flood disasters were mainly concentrated in the summer. Droughts disasters were mainly distributed in the western and northern parts of Henan Province,western and southern parts of Shandong Province,the northern part of Hebei province. Flood disasters were mainly concentrated in the northern and central parts of Henan Province,the west and south of Shandong Province,the northwest of Hebei Province,and Beijing and Tianjin city.
引文
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[9]王东,张勃,安美玲,等.基于SPEI的西南地区近53a干旱时空特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(6):1003-1016.
[10]李明,张永清,张莲芝.基于Copula函数的长春市106年来的干旱特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(6):147-153.
[11]张勃,张耀宗,任培贵,等.基于SPEI法的陇东地区近50a干旱化时空特征分析[J].地理科学,2015,35(8):999-1006.
[12]慎东方,商崇菊,方小宇,等.贵州省干旱历时和干旱烈度的时空特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(7):138-143.
[13]周丹,张勃,安美玲,等.黄河流域不同时间尺度干旱对ENSO灾害的响应[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(3):753-762.
[14]王鹏涛,延军平,蒋冲.华北平原参考作物蒸散量时空变化及其影响因素分析[J].生态学报,2014,34(19):5589-5599.
[15]闻新宇,王绍武,朱锦红,等.英国CRU高分辨率格点资料揭示的20世纪中国气候变化[J].大气科学,2006,30(5):894-904.
[16]Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R,et al. The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis[J]. Proceedings Mathematical Physical&Engineering Sciences,1998,454(1971):903-905.
[17]Wu Z,Huang N E. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition:a noise-assisted data analysis method[J]. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis,2009,1(1):1-41.
[18]万红莲,宋海龙,朱婵婵,等.明清时期宝鸡地区旱涝灾害链及其对气候变化的响应[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):27-38.
[19]李艳萍,陈昌春,张余庆.基于EEMD的明代北京地区干旱灾害特征分析[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(3):835-840.
[20]徐振韬,蒋窈窕.中国古代太阳黑子研究与现代应用[M].南京:南京大学出版社,1990:43-56.
[21]张耀宗,张勃,任培贵,等.基于SPEI陇东地区近50a干旱化时空特征分析[J].资源环境与发展,2014,26(1):18-26.
[22]唐敏,张勃,张耀宗,等.近55年三江源地区地表干燥度时空变化特征及其对气候因子的响应[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(2):248-259.
[23]周丹,张勃,沈彦俊.潜在蒸散量估算方法对干旱侦测指数计算的影响[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(3):258-267.
[24]杨庆,李明星,郑子彦. 7种气象干旱指数的中国区域适应性[J].中国科学:地球科学,2017,47(3):337-353.
[25]刘珂,姜大膀.基于两种潜在蒸散发算法的SPEI对中国干湿变化的分析[J].大气科学,2015,39(1):23-36.
[26]庄少伟,左洪超,任鹏程,等.标准化降水蒸发指数在中国区域的应用[J].气候与环境研究,2013,18(5):617-625.
[27]周丹,张勃,罗静.基于SPEI的华北地区近50年干旱发生强度的特征及成因分析[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(4):192-202.
[28]马彬,张勃,周丹,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的中国东部季风区干旱特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(7):1185-1197.
[29]李翔翔,居辉,刘勤.基于SPEI-PM指数的黄淮海平原干旱特征分析[J].生态学报,2017,37(6):2054-2066.
[30]Soon W,Dutta K,Legates D R,et al. Variation in surface air temperature of China during the 20th century[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics,2011,73(16):2331-2344.
[31]刘小龙,虞美秀.中国近60年干旱演变特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(12):177-183.
[32]温克刚,丁一汇.中国气象灾害大典,综合卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2005:588-656.
[33]卢洪健,莫兴国,胡实.华北平原1960-2009年气象干旱的时空变化特征[J].自然灾害学报,2012(6):72-82.
[34]鲁佩,董婕,高新甜.基于SPEI的华北平原近55年干旱时空特征分析[J].河南科学,2016,34(9):1551-1556.
[35]史本林,朱新玉,胡云川,等.基于SPEI指数的近53年河南省干旱时空变化特征[J].地理研究,2015,34(8):1547-1558.
[36]朱建佳,陈辉,郝立生.河北省气候变化对AO因子的响应探讨[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(1):19-26.
[37]李会群,王文.基于相对湿润度指数的山东省作物生长季干旱特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(11):191-196.
[2]唐敏,张勃,张耀宗,等.基于SPEI和SPI指数的青海省东部农业区春夏气象干旱特征的评估[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(6):1029-1042.
[3]Wang G,Cheng L,Abraham J,et al. Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses[J].Climate Dynamics,2017,50(7):2471-2487.
[4]Vicente-Serrano S M,Beguería S,Lópezmoreno J I. A multi-scalar drought index sensitive to global warming:the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. Journal of Climate,2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[5]季定民,张勃,王东,等.甘肃河东玉米种植区春夏气象干旱时空变化特征及其与环流因子关系[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(9):1547-1559.
[6]李明,王贵文,张莲芝.基于SPEI的中国东北地区干旱分区及其气候特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(6):65-70.
[7]王林,陈文.标准化降水蒸散指数在中国干旱监测的适用性分析[J].高原气象,2014,33(2):423-431.
[8]沈国强,郑海峰,雷振锋. SPEI指数在中国东北地区干旱研究中的适用性分析[J].生态学报,2017,37(11):3787-3795.
[9]王东,张勃,安美玲,等.基于SPEI的西南地区近53a干旱时空特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(6):1003-1016.
[10]李明,张永清,张莲芝.基于Copula函数的长春市106年来的干旱特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(6):147-153.
[11]张勃,张耀宗,任培贵,等.基于SPEI法的陇东地区近50a干旱化时空特征分析[J].地理科学,2015,35(8):999-1006.
[12]慎东方,商崇菊,方小宇,等.贵州省干旱历时和干旱烈度的时空特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(7):138-143.
[13]周丹,张勃,安美玲,等.黄河流域不同时间尺度干旱对ENSO灾害的响应[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(3):753-762.
[14]王鹏涛,延军平,蒋冲.华北平原参考作物蒸散量时空变化及其影响因素分析[J].生态学报,2014,34(19):5589-5599.
[15]闻新宇,王绍武,朱锦红,等.英国CRU高分辨率格点资料揭示的20世纪中国气候变化[J].大气科学,2006,30(5):894-904.
[16]Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R,et al. The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis[J]. Proceedings Mathematical Physical&Engineering Sciences,1998,454(1971):903-905.
[17]Wu Z,Huang N E. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition:a noise-assisted data analysis method[J]. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis,2009,1(1):1-41.
[18]万红莲,宋海龙,朱婵婵,等.明清时期宝鸡地区旱涝灾害链及其对气候变化的响应[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):27-38.
[19]李艳萍,陈昌春,张余庆.基于EEMD的明代北京地区干旱灾害特征分析[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(3):835-840.
[20]徐振韬,蒋窈窕.中国古代太阳黑子研究与现代应用[M].南京:南京大学出版社,1990:43-56.
[21]张耀宗,张勃,任培贵,等.基于SPEI陇东地区近50a干旱化时空特征分析[J].资源环境与发展,2014,26(1):18-26.
[22]唐敏,张勃,张耀宗,等.近55年三江源地区地表干燥度时空变化特征及其对气候因子的响应[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(2):248-259.
[23]周丹,张勃,沈彦俊.潜在蒸散量估算方法对干旱侦测指数计算的影响[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(3):258-267.
[24]杨庆,李明星,郑子彦. 7种气象干旱指数的中国区域适应性[J].中国科学:地球科学,2017,47(3):337-353.
[25]刘珂,姜大膀.基于两种潜在蒸散发算法的SPEI对中国干湿变化的分析[J].大气科学,2015,39(1):23-36.
[26]庄少伟,左洪超,任鹏程,等.标准化降水蒸发指数在中国区域的应用[J].气候与环境研究,2013,18(5):617-625.
[27]周丹,张勃,罗静.基于SPEI的华北地区近50年干旱发生强度的特征及成因分析[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(4):192-202.
[28]马彬,张勃,周丹,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的中国东部季风区干旱特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(7):1185-1197.
[29]李翔翔,居辉,刘勤.基于SPEI-PM指数的黄淮海平原干旱特征分析[J].生态学报,2017,37(6):2054-2066.
[30]Soon W,Dutta K,Legates D R,et al. Variation in surface air temperature of China during the 20th century[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics,2011,73(16):2331-2344.
[31]刘小龙,虞美秀.中国近60年干旱演变特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(12):177-183.
[32]温克刚,丁一汇.中国气象灾害大典,综合卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2005:588-656.
[33]卢洪健,莫兴国,胡实.华北平原1960-2009年气象干旱的时空变化特征[J].自然灾害学报,2012(6):72-82.
[34]鲁佩,董婕,高新甜.基于SPEI的华北平原近55年干旱时空特征分析[J].河南科学,2016,34(9):1551-1556.
[35]史本林,朱新玉,胡云川,等.基于SPEI指数的近53年河南省干旱时空变化特征[J].地理研究,2015,34(8):1547-1558.
[36]朱建佳,陈辉,郝立生.河北省气候变化对AO因子的响应探讨[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(1):19-26.
[37]李会群,王文.基于相对湿润度指数的山东省作物生长季干旱特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(11):191-196.