基于云模型的堤防工程风险评价方法与应用
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摘要
基于堤防工程的失事风险因素,将堤防工程风险因子进行分类,建立了堤防工程风险评价指标体系,包括荷载作用、保护情况、堤身特性、堤基特性和险情统计这5个方面,共20项指标,确定了各项指标的等级和标准,提出了堤防工程风险指标体系云模型评价方法,给出了云模型评价流程.以南京市秦淮河堤防工程七桥瓮～东山桥段为实例应用该方法进行了风险评价.结果表明,七桥瓮～东山桥段堤防工程风险在2007年评价值为87.99,属于较安全等级,符合当时评估情况;而2017年评价值为95.67,属于安全等级,与南京市秦淮河整治目标一致,且与实际情况相符,验证了所提出的风险评价指标体系及云模型评价方法的有效性和适用性.
Based on the risk factors of the embankment engineering, the risk factors of the embankment engineering are classified; and the risk evaluation index system of the embankment project is set up, which includes 5 aspects, including load, protection, dike body characteristics, embankment base characteristics and dangerous situation statistics, which are 20 indices; the grade and standard of every index are determined;and cloud model method is applied to evaluate the risk of embankment project in the Qinhuai River between Qiqiaoweng and Dongshan Bridge in Nanjing. The results show that the evaluation value of embankment engineering between Qiqiaoweng and Dongshan Bridge in 2007 is 87.99, which is a relatively safe grade, which is consistent with the assessment at that time.However, the evaluation value is 95.67 in 2017, which belongs to the safety grade, which is consistent with the the Qinhuai River regulation target in Nanjing, and is consistent with the actual situation, which validates the validity and applicability of the cloud model evaluation method.
Based on the risk factors of the embankment engineering, the risk factors of the embankment engineering are classified; and the risk evaluation index system of the embankment project is set up, which includes 5 aspects, including load, protection, dike body characteristics, embankment base characteristics and dangerous situation statistics, which are 20 indices; the grade and standard of every index are determined;and cloud model method is applied to evaluate the risk of embankment project in the Qinhuai River between Qiqiaoweng and Dongshan Bridge in Nanjing. The results show that the evaluation value of embankment engineering between Qiqiaoweng and Dongshan Bridge in 2007 is 87.99, which is a relatively safe grade, which is consistent with the assessment at that time.However, the evaluation value is 95.67 in 2017, which belongs to the safety grade, which is consistent with the the Qinhuai River regulation target in Nanjing, and is consistent with the actual situation, which validates the validity and applicability of the cloud model evaluation method.
引文
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[16]Li D Y,Han J W,Shi X M,et al.Knowledge representation and discovery based on linguistic atoms[J].Knowledge Based Systems,1998,10(7):431-440.
[17]何金平,施玉群,吴雯娴.大坝安全监测系统综合评价指标体系研究[J].水力发电学报,2011,30(4):175-180.He Jinping,Shi Yuqun,Wu Wenxian.Index system of comprehensive evaluation on the dam safety monitoring system[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2011,30(4):175-180.
[18]刘展志,黄显峰,方国华,等.基于改进云模型的堤坝除险加固效益后评价研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(5):223-231.Liu Zhanzhi,Huang Xianfeng,Fang Guohua,et al.Post benefit evaluation of dam reinforcement based on modified cloud model[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2017,28(5):223-231.
[19]Gallagher F W,Beasley W H.Evaluation of a onedimensional cloud model for yellow and green thunderstorms[J].Applied Optics,2003,42(3):505-510.
[20]黄显峰,刘展志,方国华.基于云模型的水利现代化评价方法与应用[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(6):54-61.Huang Xianfeng,Liu Zhanzhi,Fang Guohua.Evaluation and application of water conservancy modernization index system based on a cloud model[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2017,37(6):54-61.
[2]何金平,高全,施玉群.基于云模型的大坝安全多层次综合评价方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2016,36(11):2977-2983.He Jinping,Gao Quan,Shi Yuqun.A multi-hierarchical comprehensive evaluation method of dam safety based on cloud model[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2016,36(11):2977-2983.
[3]徐卫亚,邢万波,王凯,等.超标洪水下堤防失事风险评价及工程应用[J].水利水运工程学报,2006,(3):39-44.Xu Weiya,Xing Wanbo,Wang Kai,et.al Integrated risk assessment of levees under over level flood condition and a case study[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2006,(3):39-44.
[4]王卓甫,章志强,杨高升.防洪堤结构风险计算模型探讨[J].水利学报,1998,29(7):64-67.Wang Zhuofu,Zhang Zhiqiang,Yang Gaosheng.Risk calculation model for flood levee structure[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,1998,29(7):64-67.
[5]Wolff Thomas F.Geotechnical reliability of levees[R].California U.S.Army Corps of Engineers,Hydrologic Engineering Center,1997.
[6]吴征兴,赵进勇.堤防结构风险分析理论及其应用[J].水利学报,2003,34(8):79-85.Wu Zhengxing,Zhao Jinyong.Theory of structure risk analysis for levee and its application[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2003,34(8):79-85.
[7]姜树海,范子武.大坝的允许风险及其运用研究[J].水利学报,2003,34(3):7-12.Jiang Shuhai,Fan Ziwu.Study of tolerable risk analysis for dam safety[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2003,34(3):7-12.
[8]李晓蓉,庄毅,许斌.基于危险理论的信息安全风险评估模型[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2011,51(10):1231-1235.Li Xiaorong,Zhuang Yi,Xu Bin.Risk assessment model for information security based on danger theory[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2011,51(10):1231-1235.
[9]张仕斌,许春香,安宇俊.基于云模型的风险评估方法研究[J].电子科技大学学报,2013,42(1):92-104.Zhang Shibin,Xu Chunxiang,An Yujun.Study on the risk evaluation approach based on cloud model[J].Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,2013,42(1):92-104.
[10]王亚军,张楚汉,金峰,等堤防工程综合安全模型和风险评价体系研究及应用[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(1):101-108.Wang Yajun,Zhang Chuhan,Jin Feng,et al.Research and application of comprehensive safety model and risk judgement system of embankment engineering[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2012,21(1):101-108.
[11]郭芝韵,苏怀智,刘炳锐,等.基于云模型与证据理论的大坝安全综合评估方法[J].水利水电技术,2017,48(3):99-118.Guo Zhiyun,Su Huaizhi,Liu Binrui,et al.Cloud model and evidence theory based method for comprehensive assessment on dam safety[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2017,48(3):99-118.
[12]Torfi F,Zarahani R,Rexapour S.Fuzzy AHP to determine the relative weights of evaluation criteria and fuzzy TOPSIS to rank the alternatives[J].Applied Soft Computing,2010,10:520-528.
[13]冯学慧.基于熵权法与正态云模型的大坝安全综合评价[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(11):57-60.Feng Xuehui.Evaluation of dam safety based on cloud model and entropy weight method[J].Water Resources and Power,2015,33(11):57-60.
[14]Li D Y,Cheng D W,Shi X M,et al.Uncertainty reasoning based on cloud models in controllers[J].Computers and Mathematics with Applications,1998,35(3):99-123.
[15]沈进昌,杜树新,罗祎,等.基于云模型的模糊综合评价方法及应用[J].模糊系统与数学,2012,26(6):115-123.Shen Jinchang,Du Shuxin,Luo Yi,et al.Method and application research on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on cloud model[J].Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics,2012,26(6):115-123.
[16]Li D Y,Han J W,Shi X M,et al.Knowledge representation and discovery based on linguistic atoms[J].Knowledge Based Systems,1998,10(7):431-440.
[17]何金平,施玉群,吴雯娴.大坝安全监测系统综合评价指标体系研究[J].水力发电学报,2011,30(4):175-180.He Jinping,Shi Yuqun,Wu Wenxian.Index system of comprehensive evaluation on the dam safety monitoring system[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2011,30(4):175-180.
[18]刘展志,黄显峰,方国华,等.基于改进云模型的堤坝除险加固效益后评价研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(5):223-231.Liu Zhanzhi,Huang Xianfeng,Fang Guohua,et al.Post benefit evaluation of dam reinforcement based on modified cloud model[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2017,28(5):223-231.
[19]Gallagher F W,Beasley W H.Evaluation of a onedimensional cloud model for yellow and green thunderstorms[J].Applied Optics,2003,42(3):505-510.
[20]黄显峰,刘展志,方国华.基于云模型的水利现代化评价方法与应用[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(6):54-61.Huang Xianfeng,Liu Zhanzhi,Fang Guohua.Evaluation and application of water conservancy modernization index system based on a cloud model[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2017,37(6):54-61.