社会信任与消费行为:理论与实证
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摘要
理论分析表明,家庭对社会的信任程度会影响家庭的消费行为。对社会其他成员信任程度的增加会减少家庭的闲暇,从而增加家庭的收入和总消费;同时,家庭信任程度的增加还将改变家庭在不同类别商品之间的替代,消费更多品质不确定的商品并减少消费品质相对确定的商品。借助中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,并以工具变量法识别因果关系,信任和消费行为之间的因果关系也得到了实证研究的支持。研究同时发现,相对于商品类消费,服务类消费的品质不确定性更强,因此家庭信任度会对餐饮、娱乐、旅游、教育等服务类消费产生较大的影响。
Theoretical analysis indicates that the trust of households in the society will affect their consumption behaviors. The increase of trust in other members of the society will reduce family leisure, thereby the household income and total consumption will be increased. Simultaneously, the increase of household trust can also change their substitutions among different categories of goods,which means to consume more commodities with uncertain quality and less commodities with relative stable quality. By making use of the data from China Family Panel Studies(CFPS), this paper recognize the causal relationship with the instrumental variable method, and the causal relationship between trust and consumption behavior is also verified by the empirical research. The study also finds out that, compared with commodity consumption, the quality of service consumption has a higher uncertainty, therefore, the household trust can exert greater influence on service consumption, such as catering, entertainment, tourism and education, etc..
Theoretical analysis indicates that the trust of households in the society will affect their consumption behaviors. The increase of trust in other members of the society will reduce family leisure, thereby the household income and total consumption will be increased. Simultaneously, the increase of household trust can also change their substitutions among different categories of goods,which means to consume more commodities with uncertain quality and less commodities with relative stable quality. By making use of the data from China Family Panel Studies(CFPS), this paper recognize the causal relationship with the instrumental variable method, and the causal relationship between trust and consumption behavior is also verified by the empirical research. The study also finds out that, compared with commodity consumption, the quality of service consumption has a higher uncertainty, therefore, the household trust can exert greater influence on service consumption, such as catering, entertainment, tourism and education, etc..
引文
[1]Fukuyama F.. Trust:The Social Virtues and The Creation of Prosperity[M]. New York:Free Press, 1996.
[2]Algan Y., Cahuc P.. Inherited Trust and Growth[J]. The American Economic Review, 2010, 100(5):2060-2092.
[3]汪汇,陈钊,陆铭.户籍、社会分割与信任:来自上海的经验研究[J].世界经济, 2009, 32(10):81-96.
[4]王珏.现代社会信任问题的伦理回应[J].中国社会科学, 2018,(3):59-65.
[5]朱虹.消费信任发生机制探索——一项基于中国本土的实证研究[J].南京社会科学, 2011,(9):23-29.
[6]杨柳,吴海铮.积极情绪影响网络购物消费者信任修复的线索效应研究[J].当代财经, 2016,(6):65-75.
[7]潘煜,张星,高丽.网络零售中影响消费者购买意愿因素研究——基于信任与感知风险的分析[J].中国工业经济, 2010,(7):115-124.
[8]Gefen D., Karahanna E., Straub D. W.. Trust and TAM in Online Shopping:An Integrated Model[J]. MIS Quarterly,2003, 27(1):51-90.
[9]Singh J. J., Iglesias O., Batista-Foguet J. M.. Does Having an Ethical Brand Matter? The Influence of Consumer Perceived Ethicality on Trust, Affect and Loyalty[J]. Journal of Business Ethics, 2012, 111(4):541-549.
[10]仇焕广,黄季焜,杨军.政府信任对消费者行为的影响研究[J].经济研究, 2007,(6):65-74.
[11]林钟高,陈曦.社会信任、内部控制重大缺陷及其修复与财务风险[J].当代财经, 2016,(6):118-129.
[12]Guiso L., Sapienza P., Zingales L.. Trusting the Stock Market[J]. Journal of Finance, 2008, 63(6):2557-2600.
[13]李涛,黄纯纯,何兴强,周开国.什么影响了居民的社会信任水平?——来自广东省的经验证据[J].经济研究,2008,(1):137-152.
[14]徐志刚,刘明兴,刘永东.农民组织对村庄公共融资的影响:掣肘还是助推?——农村税费体制改革前后农民负担变化的启示[J].经济学(季刊), 2009,(3):849-870.
[15]Zak P. J., Knack S.. Trust and Growth[J]. The Economic Journal, 2001, 111(470):295-321.
[16]贺爱忠,李钰.商店形象对自有品牌信任及购买意愿影响的实证研究[J].南开管理评论, 2010,(2):79-89.
[17]冯春阳.信任、信心与居民消费支出——来自中国家庭追踪调查数据的证据[J].现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2017,(4):76-90.
[18]Attanasio O., Luigi P.. Consumption Inequality over the Last Half Century:Some Evidence Using the New PSID Consumption Measure[J]. American Economic Review, 2014,104(5):122-126.
[19]李涛,么海亮.消费不平等问题研究综述[J].经济社会体制比较, 2013,(4):230-241.
[20]黄健,邓燕华.高等教育与社会信任:基于中英调查数据的研究[J].中国社会科学, 2012,(11):98-111.
[21]Alesina A., La Ferrara E.. Who Trusts Others[J]. Journal of Public Economics, 2002, 85(2):207-234.
[22]Guiso L., Sapienza P., Zingales L.. Social Capital as Good Culture[J]. Journal of the European Economic Association,2008, 2(6):295-320.
[23]Dohmen T., Falk A., Huffman D., Sunde U.. The Intergenerational Transmission of Risk and Trust Attitudes[J]. The Review of Economic Studies, 2012, 79(2):645-677.
[24]Nunn N., Wantchekon L.. The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa[J]. The American Economic Review,2011, 101(7):3221-3252.
[25]Chen Y., Yang D. Y.. Historical Traumas and the Roots of Political Distrust:Political Inference from the Great Chinese Famine[R]. Standford Working Paper, 2015.
(1)由于这是一个静态模型,所以消费者的预算约束取等号。跨期模型需要增加家庭的储蓄、借贷等行为,模型的表达式会更加复杂。考虑到文章的研究目的以及实证数据的限制,本文没有引入动态模型。
(1)家庭的税费、保险、捐助等支出并非严格意义上的消费性支出,所以没有列在表中。
(1)出于保护受访者隐私的目的,CFPS数据没有披露成员到底经历了“被批斗审查”和“连续一周吃不饱”两种经历中的哪一种,而是将两者混合。
(1)“信任”是指那些认为社会中“大多数人是可以信任的”人;“不信任”是指那些认为“和人相处要越小心越好”的人。
(1)由于OLS和Probit的结果可能有偏误,故以下仅依据IV-2SLS或者IV-Probit的结果进行解释。
[2]Algan Y., Cahuc P.. Inherited Trust and Growth[J]. The American Economic Review, 2010, 100(5):2060-2092.
[3]汪汇,陈钊,陆铭.户籍、社会分割与信任:来自上海的经验研究[J].世界经济, 2009, 32(10):81-96.
[4]王珏.现代社会信任问题的伦理回应[J].中国社会科学, 2018,(3):59-65.
[5]朱虹.消费信任发生机制探索——一项基于中国本土的实证研究[J].南京社会科学, 2011,(9):23-29.
[6]杨柳,吴海铮.积极情绪影响网络购物消费者信任修复的线索效应研究[J].当代财经, 2016,(6):65-75.
[7]潘煜,张星,高丽.网络零售中影响消费者购买意愿因素研究——基于信任与感知风险的分析[J].中国工业经济, 2010,(7):115-124.
[8]Gefen D., Karahanna E., Straub D. W.. Trust and TAM in Online Shopping:An Integrated Model[J]. MIS Quarterly,2003, 27(1):51-90.
[9]Singh J. J., Iglesias O., Batista-Foguet J. M.. Does Having an Ethical Brand Matter? The Influence of Consumer Perceived Ethicality on Trust, Affect and Loyalty[J]. Journal of Business Ethics, 2012, 111(4):541-549.
[10]仇焕广,黄季焜,杨军.政府信任对消费者行为的影响研究[J].经济研究, 2007,(6):65-74.
[11]林钟高,陈曦.社会信任、内部控制重大缺陷及其修复与财务风险[J].当代财经, 2016,(6):118-129.
[12]Guiso L., Sapienza P., Zingales L.. Trusting the Stock Market[J]. Journal of Finance, 2008, 63(6):2557-2600.
[13]李涛,黄纯纯,何兴强,周开国.什么影响了居民的社会信任水平?——来自广东省的经验证据[J].经济研究,2008,(1):137-152.
[14]徐志刚,刘明兴,刘永东.农民组织对村庄公共融资的影响:掣肘还是助推?——农村税费体制改革前后农民负担变化的启示[J].经济学(季刊), 2009,(3):849-870.
[15]Zak P. J., Knack S.. Trust and Growth[J]. The Economic Journal, 2001, 111(470):295-321.
[16]贺爱忠,李钰.商店形象对自有品牌信任及购买意愿影响的实证研究[J].南开管理评论, 2010,(2):79-89.
[17]冯春阳.信任、信心与居民消费支出——来自中国家庭追踪调查数据的证据[J].现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2017,(4):76-90.
[18]Attanasio O., Luigi P.. Consumption Inequality over the Last Half Century:Some Evidence Using the New PSID Consumption Measure[J]. American Economic Review, 2014,104(5):122-126.
[19]李涛,么海亮.消费不平等问题研究综述[J].经济社会体制比较, 2013,(4):230-241.
[20]黄健,邓燕华.高等教育与社会信任:基于中英调查数据的研究[J].中国社会科学, 2012,(11):98-111.
[21]Alesina A., La Ferrara E.. Who Trusts Others[J]. Journal of Public Economics, 2002, 85(2):207-234.
[22]Guiso L., Sapienza P., Zingales L.. Social Capital as Good Culture[J]. Journal of the European Economic Association,2008, 2(6):295-320.
[23]Dohmen T., Falk A., Huffman D., Sunde U.. The Intergenerational Transmission of Risk and Trust Attitudes[J]. The Review of Economic Studies, 2012, 79(2):645-677.
[24]Nunn N., Wantchekon L.. The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa[J]. The American Economic Review,2011, 101(7):3221-3252.
[25]Chen Y., Yang D. Y.. Historical Traumas and the Roots of Political Distrust:Political Inference from the Great Chinese Famine[R]. Standford Working Paper, 2015.
(1)由于这是一个静态模型,所以消费者的预算约束取等号。跨期模型需要增加家庭的储蓄、借贷等行为,模型的表达式会更加复杂。考虑到文章的研究目的以及实证数据的限制,本文没有引入动态模型。
(1)家庭的税费、保险、捐助等支出并非严格意义上的消费性支出,所以没有列在表中。
(1)出于保护受访者隐私的目的,CFPS数据没有披露成员到底经历了“被批斗审查”和“连续一周吃不饱”两种经历中的哪一种,而是将两者混合。
(1)“信任”是指那些认为社会中“大多数人是可以信任的”人;“不信任”是指那些认为“和人相处要越小心越好”的人。
(1)由于OLS和Probit的结果可能有偏误,故以下仅依据IV-2SLS或者IV-Probit的结果进行解释。