1426—1949年腾格里沙漠边缘区旱涝灾害初探
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摘要
通过对腾格里沙漠边缘区相关气候灾害的史料和文献进行搜集整理与归纳分析,利用统计分组、时间数列、滑动平均、旱涝等级划分等方法对研究区1426—1949年旱涝灾害的时空变化特征和干湿变化特征进行了研究。结果表明:1426—1949年,腾格里沙漠边缘区共发生旱灾149次(平均每3.52年1次)、涝灾98次(平均每5.35年1次);因各县、区的地貌和建置时间不同,旱涝灾害具有明显的时空差异,在时间尺度上,清朝发生旱涝的频率最高,分别为51%、78.6%,在空间尺度上,沙坡头区发生旱涝灾害次数最多,分别为旱灾110次、涝灾78次;腾格里沙漠边缘区在明朝时期相对干旱,清朝、民国时期湿度增加,这与小冰期全球性的降温、西风强盛导致相对湿度增加和西风带位置南移导致降水增多有关。
We collected historical documents about climatic disasters in the Tengger Desert,located in northwest China. Statistical categorization,time-series analysis,moving average,and rank of climatic disasters were the main means to analyze these information and data we organized. The changes between wet and dry and spatial-temporal characteristics of climatic disasters in the study area during 1426—1949 AD were researched. This study shows that droughts occurred every 3.52 years,and floods occurred every 5.35 years during the study period on the southern and western edges of the Tengger Desert. Apparent spatial-temporal differences were invited by various landforms,and historic construction of counties and districts. At the time scale,both the droughts( 51%) and flood disasters( 78.6%) had the highest frequency in Qing dynasty. As for space scale,Shapotou district experienced the most amount of climatic disasters with 110 droughts and 78 floods,respectively. The climate in Qing dynasty or the Republican period was wetter than that in Ming dynasty. This was due to global cooling during Little Ice Age,strong westerly and southward of westerlies,leading increasing precipitation in the study area.
We collected historical documents about climatic disasters in the Tengger Desert,located in northwest China. Statistical categorization,time-series analysis,moving average,and rank of climatic disasters were the main means to analyze these information and data we organized. The changes between wet and dry and spatial-temporal characteristics of climatic disasters in the study area during 1426—1949 AD were researched. This study shows that droughts occurred every 3.52 years,and floods occurred every 5.35 years during the study period on the southern and western edges of the Tengger Desert. Apparent spatial-temporal differences were invited by various landforms,and historic construction of counties and districts. At the time scale,both the droughts( 51%) and flood disasters( 78.6%) had the highest frequency in Qing dynasty. As for space scale,Shapotou district experienced the most amount of climatic disasters with 110 droughts and 78 floods,respectively. The climate in Qing dynasty or the Republican period was wetter than that in Ming dynasty. This was due to global cooling during Little Ice Age,strong westerly and southward of westerlies,leading increasing precipitation in the study area.
引文
[1]张虎才,马玉贞,李吉均.腾格里沙漠南缘全新世古气候变化初步研究[J].科学通报,1998(12):1252-1258.
[2]李琼,潘保田,高红山,等.腾格里沙漠南缘末次冰盛期以来沙漠演化与气候变化[J].中国沙漠,2006,26(6):875-879.
[3]隆浩,马海州,王乃昂,等.腾格里沙漠西北缘湖泊沉积记录的全新世中期气候环境[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质,2007,27(3):105-111.
[4]刘亚辰,方修琦,陶泽兴,等.诗歌中物候记录的基本特征及用于历史气候重建的处理方法[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(4):483-490.
[5] Fister P C,Wanner H. Editorial:documentary data[J]. Pages New s,2002,10(3):2.
[6] Zhu K Z.A preliminary study on the climatic fluctuations during the last 5,000 years in China[J]. Science in China Series A,1973(2):72-102.
[7]彭维英,殷淑燕,鲍小娟,等.汉江上游历史时期寒冻灾害特征及其社会影响研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(8):83-89.
[8]王挺,费杰,周杰.1400—1899年渭河上游地区洪涝灾害与城市变迁初探[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(2):60-67.
[9]庞有智,张虎才,常凤琴,等.腾格里沙漠南缘末次冰消期气候不稳定性记录[J].第四纪研究,2010,30(1):69-79.
[10]王银花,石光普.景泰县近50年来气温、降水变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(2):89-95.
[11]郑景云,葛全胜,郝志新,等.历史文献中的气象记录与气候变化定量重建方法[J].第四纪研究,2014,34(6):1186-1196.
[12]龚高法,张丕远,吴祥定,等.历史时期气候变化研究方法[M].北京:科学出版社,1983:33-44.
[13]中央气象局气象科学研究院.中国近五百年旱涝分布图集[M].北京:地图出版社,1981.
[14] Matthes F E.Report of committee on glaciers[J].transactions of American Geophysical Union,1939,20(4):518-523
[15] Soon W,Baliunas S.Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years[J]. Energy and Environment,2003,23(2):233-296.
[16] Grove J M.The onset of the Little Ice Age[M]//Jones P D,Ogilvie A E J,Davies T D,et al. History and Climate:M emories of the Future? New York,USA:Kluw er Academic Publishers,2001:153-185.
[17]张振克,吴瑞金.近2600年来内蒙古居延海湖泊沉积记录的环境变迁[J].湖泊科学,1998,10(2):44-51.
[18]张洪,靳鹤龄,肖洪浪,等.东居延海易溶盐沉积与古气候环境变化[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(4):409-415.
[19]竺可桢.中国近五千年来气候变迁的初步研究[J].考古学报,1972(1):168-189.
[20] Wang S,Gong D,Zhu J.Twentieth-century climatic warming in China in the context of the Holocene[J]. Holocene,2001,11(3):313-321.
[21]姚檀栋,谢自楚,武筱舲,等.敦德冰帽中的小冰期气候记录[J].中国科学,1990,20(11):1196-1201.
[22] Ge Q,Zheng J,Fang X,et al.Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and low er reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River,China,during the past 2000 years[J].Holocene,2003,13(6):933-940.
[23]张家诚.中国历史时期的干旱与干旱化[M]//李克让.中国历史时期的干旱与干旱化.郑州:河南科学技术出版社,1999:117-136.
[24]于革,薛滨,王苏民,等.末次盛冰期中国湖泊记录及其气候意义[J].科学通报,2000,45(3):250-255.
[25] Hurrell J W,Loon H V.Decadal variations in climate associated w ith the North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Climatic Change,1997,36(3/4):301-326.
[26]薛滨.中国晚第四纪湖泊数据库研究[M]//于革,薛滨,刘健,等.中国湖泊演变与古气候动力学研究.北京:气象出版社,2001:17-83.
[2]李琼,潘保田,高红山,等.腾格里沙漠南缘末次冰盛期以来沙漠演化与气候变化[J].中国沙漠,2006,26(6):875-879.
[3]隆浩,马海州,王乃昂,等.腾格里沙漠西北缘湖泊沉积记录的全新世中期气候环境[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质,2007,27(3):105-111.
[4]刘亚辰,方修琦,陶泽兴,等.诗歌中物候记录的基本特征及用于历史气候重建的处理方法[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(4):483-490.
[5] Fister P C,Wanner H. Editorial:documentary data[J]. Pages New s,2002,10(3):2.
[6] Zhu K Z.A preliminary study on the climatic fluctuations during the last 5,000 years in China[J]. Science in China Series A,1973(2):72-102.
[7]彭维英,殷淑燕,鲍小娟,等.汉江上游历史时期寒冻灾害特征及其社会影响研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(8):83-89.
[8]王挺,费杰,周杰.1400—1899年渭河上游地区洪涝灾害与城市变迁初探[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(2):60-67.
[9]庞有智,张虎才,常凤琴,等.腾格里沙漠南缘末次冰消期气候不稳定性记录[J].第四纪研究,2010,30(1):69-79.
[10]王银花,石光普.景泰县近50年来气温、降水变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(2):89-95.
[11]郑景云,葛全胜,郝志新,等.历史文献中的气象记录与气候变化定量重建方法[J].第四纪研究,2014,34(6):1186-1196.
[12]龚高法,张丕远,吴祥定,等.历史时期气候变化研究方法[M].北京:科学出版社,1983:33-44.
[13]中央气象局气象科学研究院.中国近五百年旱涝分布图集[M].北京:地图出版社,1981.
[14] Matthes F E.Report of committee on glaciers[J].transactions of American Geophysical Union,1939,20(4):518-523
[15] Soon W,Baliunas S.Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years[J]. Energy and Environment,2003,23(2):233-296.
[16] Grove J M.The onset of the Little Ice Age[M]//Jones P D,Ogilvie A E J,Davies T D,et al. History and Climate:M emories of the Future? New York,USA:Kluw er Academic Publishers,2001:153-185.
[17]张振克,吴瑞金.近2600年来内蒙古居延海湖泊沉积记录的环境变迁[J].湖泊科学,1998,10(2):44-51.
[18]张洪,靳鹤龄,肖洪浪,等.东居延海易溶盐沉积与古气候环境变化[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(4):409-415.
[19]竺可桢.中国近五千年来气候变迁的初步研究[J].考古学报,1972(1):168-189.
[20] Wang S,Gong D,Zhu J.Twentieth-century climatic warming in China in the context of the Holocene[J]. Holocene,2001,11(3):313-321.
[21]姚檀栋,谢自楚,武筱舲,等.敦德冰帽中的小冰期气候记录[J].中国科学,1990,20(11):1196-1201.
[22] Ge Q,Zheng J,Fang X,et al.Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and low er reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River,China,during the past 2000 years[J].Holocene,2003,13(6):933-940.
[23]张家诚.中国历史时期的干旱与干旱化[M]//李克让.中国历史时期的干旱与干旱化.郑州:河南科学技术出版社,1999:117-136.
[24]于革,薛滨,王苏民,等.末次盛冰期中国湖泊记录及其气候意义[J].科学通报,2000,45(3):250-255.
[25] Hurrell J W,Loon H V.Decadal variations in climate associated w ith the North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Climatic Change,1997,36(3/4):301-326.
[26]薛滨.中国晚第四纪湖泊数据库研究[M]//于革,薛滨,刘健,等.中国湖泊演变与古气候动力学研究.北京:气象出版社,2001:17-83.
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