黑龙江省夏季降雨量及暴雨时空分布特征研究
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摘要
利用黑龙江省80个气象站夏季(6—8月)逐日降水资料,分析近55年(1961—2015年)黑龙江省夏季降雨量和暴雨的变化特征,为粮食生产提供科学依据。从夏季降雨量、降雨量变化趋势、暴雨次数、暴雨变化趋势等方面,利用趋势系数等统计方法和GIS空间插值技术,分析黑龙江省夏季降雨量和暴雨的时空分布特征。结果表明:黑龙江省夏季降雨量在中部的小兴安岭和张广才岭西部地区最高,在360 mm以上,东部三江平原和西部松嫩平原地区最低,在300～320 mm之间。夏季降雨量在松嫩平原和大兴安岭地区呈增加趋势,小兴安岭和三江平原地区呈减少趋势。全省夏季平均降雨量呈减少趋势,平均每10年减少2 mm,20世纪70年代平均降雨量最低,80年代最高。小兴安岭西南部和张广才岭西部地区平均暴雨日数最多,其次为三江平原和松嫩平原地区,大兴安岭地区最少。暴雨发生站次呈明显升高趋势,每10年增加2.3站次,20世纪70年代暴雨发生站次最少,2010年以后最多。最大日降雨量基本上从西南向东北部递减,西南部地区绝大部分地区最大日降雨量都在120 mm以上,东北部地区都在120 mm以下。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 80 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang, the variation characteristics of summer rainfall and rainstorm in recent 55 years(1961 to 2015) were analyzed to provide a basis for grain production. The study was carried out by using trend coefficients and GIS spatial interpolation techniques from the aspects of summer rainfall, the trend of rainfall variation, rainstorm frequency and the trend of rainstorm variation. The results showed that the Lesser Khingan Mountains and the Zhangguangcai Mountains had the highest summer rainfall of above 360 mm, the lowest was in the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain, which was between 300 to 320 mm. The summer rainfall increased in the Songnen Plain and the Great Khingan Mountains, and decreased in the Lesser Khingan Mountains and Sanjiang Plains. The average summer rainfall of Heilongjiang showed a decreasing trend, with an average decrease of 2 mm every 10 years, the lowest was in the 1970 s and the highest was in the 1980 s. The most average number of rainstorm days occurred in the southwest of the Lesser Khingan Mountains and the west of Zhangguangcai Mountains,followed by the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain, the Great Khingan Mountains had the least rainstorm days. Rainstorm occurrence stations showed a significant upward trend, increased by 2.3 stations every 10 years, the number of rainstorm occurrence stations was the least in 1970 s and the most after 2010. The maximum daily rainfall basically decreased from southwest to northeast. The maximum daily rainfall in most areas of southwest was above 120 mm, and that in northeast was below 120 mm.
Based on the daily precipitation data of 80 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang, the variation characteristics of summer rainfall and rainstorm in recent 55 years(1961 to 2015) were analyzed to provide a basis for grain production. The study was carried out by using trend coefficients and GIS spatial interpolation techniques from the aspects of summer rainfall, the trend of rainfall variation, rainstorm frequency and the trend of rainstorm variation. The results showed that the Lesser Khingan Mountains and the Zhangguangcai Mountains had the highest summer rainfall of above 360 mm, the lowest was in the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain, which was between 300 to 320 mm. The summer rainfall increased in the Songnen Plain and the Great Khingan Mountains, and decreased in the Lesser Khingan Mountains and Sanjiang Plains. The average summer rainfall of Heilongjiang showed a decreasing trend, with an average decrease of 2 mm every 10 years, the lowest was in the 1970 s and the highest was in the 1980 s. The most average number of rainstorm days occurred in the southwest of the Lesser Khingan Mountains and the west of Zhangguangcai Mountains,followed by the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain, the Great Khingan Mountains had the least rainstorm days. Rainstorm occurrence stations showed a significant upward trend, increased by 2.3 stations every 10 years, the number of rainstorm occurrence stations was the least in 1970 s and the most after 2010. The maximum daily rainfall basically decreased from southwest to northeast. The maximum daily rainfall in most areas of southwest was above 120 mm, and that in northeast was below 120 mm.
引文
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[2]陶诗言,丁一汇,周晓平.暴雨和强对流天气的研究[J].大气科学,1979,3(3):227-238.
[3]吴正华,储锁龙.北京暴雨与旱涝关系的分析[J].应用气象学报,1998,9(4):492-495.
[4]邵建,裴晓蓉,刘娟,等.近53a宁夏暴雨时空分布特征[J].干旱气象,2015,33(4):595-601.
[5]刘金平,向亮,韩军彩,等.京津冀1961—2012年暴雨日数时空演变特征[J].气象科技,2015,43(3):497-502.
[6]张远.河南省1961—2010年暴雨日数的时空分布特征[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(1):103-106.
[7]於琍,徐影,张永香.近25a中国暴雨及其引发的暴雨洪涝灾害影响的时空变化特征[J].暴雨灾害,2018,37(1):67-72.
[8]刘小宁.我国暴雨极端事件的气候变化特征[J].灾害学,1999,14(1):54-59.
[9]鲍名,黄荣辉.近40年我国暴雨的年代际变化特征[J].大气科学,2006,30(6):1057-1067.
[10]林建,杨贵名.近30年中国暴雨时空特征分析[J].气象,2014,40(7):816-826.
[11]邹立尧,丁一汇.1961—2005年东北暴雨气候特征分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(5):1314-1321.
[12]史风梅,杨波,裴占江,等.黑龙江省近30年农业气象灾害受灾变化特征[J].东北农业大学学报,2017,48(10):50-56.
[13]王秋京,马国忠,李宇光,等.黑龙江省主要农业气象灾害特征及其对粮食产量影响灰色关联分析[J].南方农业学报,2015,46(5):823-827.
[14]姜丽霞,陈可心,刘丹,等.2013年黑龙江省主汛期降水异常特征及其对作物产量影响的分析[J].气象,2015,41(1):105-112.
[15]李永生,张健,于梅,等.2013年黑龙江省夏季洪涝灾害成因分析[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(3):31-37.
[16]孙力,隋波,王晓明,等.我国东北地区夏季暴雨的气候学特征[J].气象与环境研究,2010,15(63):778-786.
[17]常煜,孙晓慧,刘勇,等.近51年呼伦贝尔市暴雨日数的时空分布特征[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(11):239-244.
[18]陈传雷,管兆勇,肖光粱,等.辽宁省极端长历时暴雨时空分布及影响系统特征[J].气象与环境学报,2018,34(2):28-34.
[19]黄荣辉,顾雷,陈际龙,等.东亚季风系统的时空变化及其对我国气候异常影响的最近研究进展[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):691-719.
[20]陈隆勋,张博,张瑛.东亚季风研究的进展[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(6):711-724.