1995-2016年三岔河上游土地利用变化对径流的影响
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摘要
[目的]分析1995—2016年间黔中水利枢纽工程的水源区——三岔河上游流域降雨、径流以及土地利用变化情况,通过探讨土地利用变化对径流的影响,为预测未来流域水资源变化规律和黔中水利枢纽工程水资源的调配提供一定的参考依据。[方法]采用常规线性回归和结果模拟来分析降雨和径流的关系,利用土地利用动态变化指标和转移矩阵研究土地利用变化对径流的影响。[结果] 20 a来三岔河上游降雨和径流总体呈波动下降的趋势,其演变过程划分为两个阶段:1995—2010年(第一阶段)降雨和径流呈持续下降趋势,2010—2016年(第二阶段)降雨和径流总体呈波动下降趋势,但径流下降幅度较大。1995年以来,流域土地利用结构变化比较明显。草地和林地面积增加5.33%和3.63%,耕地减少了6.92%,耕地向草地、林地和建设用地的转换构成土地利用变化的主导过程。除降雨影响外,土地利用变化是造成径流持续减少的主要原因。2010—2016年,草地和林地分别增加了19.93%和5.25%,耕地和未利用土地分别减少13.93%和87.97%,表明土地利用变化是造成径流大幅减少的主要原因。此外,黔中水利枢纽工程平寨水库的修建,在一定程度上对径流减少具有重要作用。[结论]三岔河上游土地利用变化与径流的变化联系紧密,土地利用变化的结果使径流量减少。
[Objective] This study investigated the rainfall, runoff, land use changes during the period of 1995—2016 in the upper reaches of Sancha river basin, the water source area of the Qianzhong hydraulic project. The impacts of land use change on runoff were explored in order to provide a reference for predicting future changes of the water resources in the basin and the allocation of water resources in Qianzhong hydraulic project. [Methods] The relationship between rainfall and runoff was analyzed by conventional linear regression and result simulation. The impact of land use change on runoff was studied by using the land use dynamic change index and transfer matrix. [Results] The rainfall and runoff in the upper reaches of Sancha river watershed fluctuated and declined during the past 20 years, and the evolution processes could be divided into two stages: 1995—2010(stageⅠ) rainfall and runoff showed a downward trend. 2010—2016(stageⅡ) rainfall and runoff showed a downward trend, but the decline of runoff was greater than rainfall. Since 1995, the land use change in the basin was obvious. The area of grassland and woodland increased by 5.33% and 3.63%, respectively. The cultivated land decreased by 6.92%. The dominant changes in land use types were conversion from cultivated land to forestland, grassland and construction land. In addition to the impact of rainfall, land use change was the major factor affecting the continuous decline of runoff. During the period of 2010—2016, the area of grassland and woodland increased by 19.93% and 5.25%, while the cultivated land and unused land decreased by 13.93% and 87.97%, respectively, indicating that land use change was the main reason for the significant decrease in runoff. In addition, the construction of Pingzhai reservoir in the Qianzhong water control project had an important impact on the reduction of runoff to a certain extent. [Conclusion] Land use change in the upper reaches of the Sancha River was closely related to the changes of runoff, which reduced watershed runoff.
[Objective] This study investigated the rainfall, runoff, land use changes during the period of 1995—2016 in the upper reaches of Sancha river basin, the water source area of the Qianzhong hydraulic project. The impacts of land use change on runoff were explored in order to provide a reference for predicting future changes of the water resources in the basin and the allocation of water resources in Qianzhong hydraulic project. [Methods] The relationship between rainfall and runoff was analyzed by conventional linear regression and result simulation. The impact of land use change on runoff was studied by using the land use dynamic change index and transfer matrix. [Results] The rainfall and runoff in the upper reaches of Sancha river watershed fluctuated and declined during the past 20 years, and the evolution processes could be divided into two stages: 1995—2010(stageⅠ) rainfall and runoff showed a downward trend. 2010—2016(stageⅡ) rainfall and runoff showed a downward trend, but the decline of runoff was greater than rainfall. Since 1995, the land use change in the basin was obvious. The area of grassland and woodland increased by 5.33% and 3.63%, respectively. The cultivated land decreased by 6.92%. The dominant changes in land use types were conversion from cultivated land to forestland, grassland and construction land. In addition to the impact of rainfall, land use change was the major factor affecting the continuous decline of runoff. During the period of 2010—2016, the area of grassland and woodland increased by 19.93% and 5.25%, while the cultivated land and unused land decreased by 13.93% and 87.97%, respectively, indicating that land use change was the main reason for the significant decrease in runoff. In addition, the construction of Pingzhai reservoir in the Qianzhong water control project had an important impact on the reduction of runoff to a certain extent. [Conclusion] Land use change in the upper reaches of the Sancha River was closely related to the changes of runoff, which reduced watershed runoff.
引文
[1] 李丽娟,姜德娟,李九一,等.土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究进展[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(2):211-224.
[2] 史晓亮,李颖,严登华,等.流域土地利用/覆被变化对水文过程的影响研究进展[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(4):301-308.
[3] Schulze R E.Modeling hydrological responses to land use and climate change:A southern African perspective[J].AMBIO,2000,29(1):12-22.
[4] Calder I R.Hydrologic effects of land-use change[C]Maidment D R.Handbook of Hydrology.New York:McGraw-Hill,1993:50.
[5] 刘正茂,吕宪国,夏广亮,等.近50年挠力河流域上游径流深变化过程及其驱动机制研究[J].水文,2011,31(3):44-50.
[6] 王根绪,张钰,刘桂民,等.马营河流域1967—2000年土地利用变化对河流径流的影响[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),2005(7):671-681.
[7] 夏军,谈戈.全球变化与水文科学新的进展与挑战[J].资源科学,2002,24(3):1-7.
[8] 田义超,梁铭忠,吴彬.北部湾沿海地区土地利用动态模拟与水源涵养服务能力估算:以广西钦州市为例[J].云南地理环境研究,2013,25(5):69-78.
[9] Sun Ning,Li Xiubin.A summary of the effects of afforestation and deforestation on annual water yields[C]// International Geosciences and Remote Sensing Symposium,Seoul,Korea 25-29 July 2005.
[10] 孙宁,李秀彬,李子君,等.潮河上游土地利用/覆被变化对年径流影响模拟[J].北京林业大学学报,2008,30(S2):22-30.
[11] 陈雅琳,常学礼,崔步礼.山东半岛典型流域土地利用变化对径流的影响分析[J].水土保持研究,2007,13(5):104-107.
[12] 叶宝莹,张养贞,张树文,等.嫩江流域土地覆被变化对径流量的影响分析[J].水土保持通报,2003,23(2):15-18.
[13] 贾静,石晓丽.土地利用/覆被变化对区域径流的影响:以秦皇岛地区为例[J].地理与地理信息科学,2017,33(2):108-114,127.
[14] 戴明宏,张军以,王腊春,等.岩溶地区土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究进展[J].生态科学,2015,34(3):189-196.
[15] 孟碟.黔中水利枢纽工程水资源调配与经济核算研究[D].天津:天津大学,2013.
[16] 杨秀才.黔中水利枢纽工程存在的问题及运行管理对策[J].现代农业科技,2010(20):273-274.
[17] 侯文娟,高江波,戴尔阜,等.基于SWAT模型模拟乌江三岔河生态系统产流服务及其空间变异[J].地理学报,2018,73(7):1268-1282.
[18] 张一鸣,田雨,雷晓辉,等.三岔河上游近50年降水径流变化特征分析[J].水文,2016,36(5):79-84.
[19] 侯祎亮,安艳玲,吴起鑫,等.贵州省三岔河流域水化学特征及其控制因素[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(7):1121-1128.
[20] 焦树林,刘丽,孙婷,等.三岔河流域水文特征与化学风化碳汇效应[J].地理研究,2013,32(6):1025-1032.
[21] 焦树林,罗福家,梁虹,等.乌江源区阳长流域化学侵蚀作用的碳汇效应[J].水土保持学报,2012,26(5):44-47.
[22] 李毅,石豫川,王平,等.基于DEM的吉太曲流域水文信息分析[J].人民黄河,2015,37(9):32-34,37.
[23] 吴琳娜,杨胜天,刘晓燕,等.1976年以来北洛河流域土地利用变化对人类活动程度的响应[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):54-63.
[24] 刘纪远,匡文慧,张增祥,等.20世纪80年代末以来中国土地利用变化的基本特征与空间格局[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):3-14.
[25] 李丽娟,郑红星.华北典型河流年径流演变规律及其驱动力分析:以潮白河为例[J].地理学报,2000,55(3):309-317.
[2] 史晓亮,李颖,严登华,等.流域土地利用/覆被变化对水文过程的影响研究进展[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(4):301-308.
[3] Schulze R E.Modeling hydrological responses to land use and climate change:A southern African perspective[J].AMBIO,2000,29(1):12-22.
[4] Calder I R.Hydrologic effects of land-use change[C]Maidment D R.Handbook of Hydrology.New York:McGraw-Hill,1993:50.
[5] 刘正茂,吕宪国,夏广亮,等.近50年挠力河流域上游径流深变化过程及其驱动机制研究[J].水文,2011,31(3):44-50.
[6] 王根绪,张钰,刘桂民,等.马营河流域1967—2000年土地利用变化对河流径流的影响[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),2005(7):671-681.
[7] 夏军,谈戈.全球变化与水文科学新的进展与挑战[J].资源科学,2002,24(3):1-7.
[8] 田义超,梁铭忠,吴彬.北部湾沿海地区土地利用动态模拟与水源涵养服务能力估算:以广西钦州市为例[J].云南地理环境研究,2013,25(5):69-78.
[9] Sun Ning,Li Xiubin.A summary of the effects of afforestation and deforestation on annual water yields[C]// International Geosciences and Remote Sensing Symposium,Seoul,Korea 25-29 July 2005.
[10] 孙宁,李秀彬,李子君,等.潮河上游土地利用/覆被变化对年径流影响模拟[J].北京林业大学学报,2008,30(S2):22-30.
[11] 陈雅琳,常学礼,崔步礼.山东半岛典型流域土地利用变化对径流的影响分析[J].水土保持研究,2007,13(5):104-107.
[12] 叶宝莹,张养贞,张树文,等.嫩江流域土地覆被变化对径流量的影响分析[J].水土保持通报,2003,23(2):15-18.
[13] 贾静,石晓丽.土地利用/覆被变化对区域径流的影响:以秦皇岛地区为例[J].地理与地理信息科学,2017,33(2):108-114,127.
[14] 戴明宏,张军以,王腊春,等.岩溶地区土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究进展[J].生态科学,2015,34(3):189-196.
[15] 孟碟.黔中水利枢纽工程水资源调配与经济核算研究[D].天津:天津大学,2013.
[16] 杨秀才.黔中水利枢纽工程存在的问题及运行管理对策[J].现代农业科技,2010(20):273-274.
[17] 侯文娟,高江波,戴尔阜,等.基于SWAT模型模拟乌江三岔河生态系统产流服务及其空间变异[J].地理学报,2018,73(7):1268-1282.
[18] 张一鸣,田雨,雷晓辉,等.三岔河上游近50年降水径流变化特征分析[J].水文,2016,36(5):79-84.
[19] 侯祎亮,安艳玲,吴起鑫,等.贵州省三岔河流域水化学特征及其控制因素[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(7):1121-1128.
[20] 焦树林,刘丽,孙婷,等.三岔河流域水文特征与化学风化碳汇效应[J].地理研究,2013,32(6):1025-1032.
[21] 焦树林,罗福家,梁虹,等.乌江源区阳长流域化学侵蚀作用的碳汇效应[J].水土保持学报,2012,26(5):44-47.
[22] 李毅,石豫川,王平,等.基于DEM的吉太曲流域水文信息分析[J].人民黄河,2015,37(9):32-34,37.
[23] 吴琳娜,杨胜天,刘晓燕,等.1976年以来北洛河流域土地利用变化对人类活动程度的响应[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):54-63.
[24] 刘纪远,匡文慧,张增祥,等.20世纪80年代末以来中国土地利用变化的基本特征与空间格局[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):3-14.
[25] 李丽娟,郑红星.华北典型河流年径流演变规律及其驱动力分析:以潮白河为例[J].地理学报,2000,55(3):309-317.