基于空间参数的中国沿海地区台风灾害暴露性分析
|
摘要
以中国沿海地区作为研究区,利用1949—2016年的历史台风资料,建立基于地理空间参数的多元线性回归模型,在此基础上,分析该地区的台风灾害暴露性。研究结果表明:中国沿海地区台风灾害暴露性空间差异性显著,整体呈现从南部沿海向北部沿海逐步降低的格局;属于同一个省份或者纬度相近的各研究单元,呈现距海岸线距离越近暴露性越大的特点,分析结果与实际情况较吻合。
Using the historical typhoon data from 1949 to 2016 in the coastal areas of China,we established a multiple linear regression model based on geospatial parameters,and analyzed the exposure of typhoon disasters in the study area. As the results show,the spatial difference of typhoon disaster exposure in China' s coastal areas is significant,featuring a gradual diminishing exposure from the southern coast to the northern coast. The study units belonging to the same province or similar latitudes show the characteristics of the closer to the coastline,the greater the exposure. The analysis results correspond with the actual situation and can serve as references and basic information for the selection of typhoon disaster risk indicators and the improvement of assessment methods.
Using the historical typhoon data from 1949 to 2016 in the coastal areas of China,we established a multiple linear regression model based on geospatial parameters,and analyzed the exposure of typhoon disasters in the study area. As the results show,the spatial difference of typhoon disaster exposure in China' s coastal areas is significant,featuring a gradual diminishing exposure from the southern coast to the northern coast. The study units belonging to the same province or similar latitudes show the characteristics of the closer to the coastline,the greater the exposure. The analysis results correspond with the actual situation and can serve as references and basic information for the selection of typhoon disaster risk indicators and the improvement of assessment methods.
引文
[1]尹占娥,暴丽杰,殷杰.基于GIS的上海浦东暴雨内涝灾害脆弱性研究[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(2):29-35.
[2]陈香.福建台风灾害脆弱性时空趋势评价[J].莆田学院学报,2007,14(5):93-96.
[3]牛海燕,刘敏,陆敏,等.中国沿海地区近20年台风灾害风险评价[J].地理科学,2011,31(6):764-768.
[4]牛海燕.中国沿海台风灾害风险评估研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2012:1-10.
[5]陈文方,徐伟,史培军.长三角地区台风灾害风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(4):77-83.
[6]Zhang Y,Fan G,He Y,et.al.Risk assessment of typhoon disaster for the Yangtze River Delta of China[J].Geomatics,Natural Hazards and Risk,2017,8(2):1580-1591.
[7]魏章进,马华铃,唐丹玲.基于改进熵值法的台风灾害风险趋势评估[J].灾害学,2017,32(3):7-11.
[8]张悦,李珊珊,陈灏,等.广东省台风灾害风险综合评估[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(2):281-288.
[9]李菁,陈建伟,祁丽燕.基于灰色关联分析的不同路径台风灾害研究[J].灾害学,2017,32(2):48-53.
[10]陈香.福建省台风灾害风险评估与区划[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(6):961-966.
[11]叶金玉.基于多维矩阵的台风灾害链综合风险评估模型及其信息图谱表达[D].福州:福建师范大学,2015.
[12]朱婧,陆逸,李国平,等.基于县级分辨率的福建省台风灾害风险评估[J].灾害学,2017,32(3):204-209.
[13]周亚飞,程霄楠,蔡靖,等.台风灾害综合风险评价研究[J].风险管理,2013(1):31-37.
[14]周小梅,杜清运,彭瑞.浙江省台风灾害风险区划研究[J].地理空间信息,2018,16(8):12-16.
[15]Alexandros A.Taflanidis,Gaofeng Jia,Norberto C.Nadal-Caraballo,et.al.Development of Real-Time Tools for Hurricane Risk Assessment[A].Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management(ICVRAM)and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty,Modeling,and Analysis(ISUMA)[C],Liverpool,UK:July 13-16,2014.
[16]郑菲,孙诚,李建平.从气候变化的新视角理解灾害风险、暴露度、脆弱性和恢复力[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(2):79-83.
[17]Kossin J P,Emanuel K A,Camargo S J.Past and projected changes in western north pacific tropical cyclone exposure[J].Journal of Climate,2016,29(6):5725-5739.
[18]Ying M,Zhang W,Yu H,et.al.An overview of the China Meteorological Administration tropical cyclone database[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology,2014,31:287-301.
[19]中国行政区划下载中心.http://seisman.info/china-administrative-areas-data.html
[20]Paul A Z.Exposure of US counties to Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes,1851-2003[J].Natural Hazards,2009,48:83-99.
[21]徐建华.现代地理学的数学方法(第二版)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002.
[22]孙文生.统计学原理(第三版)[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2012.
[2]陈香.福建台风灾害脆弱性时空趋势评价[J].莆田学院学报,2007,14(5):93-96.
[3]牛海燕,刘敏,陆敏,等.中国沿海地区近20年台风灾害风险评价[J].地理科学,2011,31(6):764-768.
[4]牛海燕.中国沿海台风灾害风险评估研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2012:1-10.
[5]陈文方,徐伟,史培军.长三角地区台风灾害风险评估[J].自然灾害学报,2011,20(4):77-83.
[6]Zhang Y,Fan G,He Y,et.al.Risk assessment of typhoon disaster for the Yangtze River Delta of China[J].Geomatics,Natural Hazards and Risk,2017,8(2):1580-1591.
[7]魏章进,马华铃,唐丹玲.基于改进熵值法的台风灾害风险趋势评估[J].灾害学,2017,32(3):7-11.
[8]张悦,李珊珊,陈灏,等.广东省台风灾害风险综合评估[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(2):281-288.
[9]李菁,陈建伟,祁丽燕.基于灰色关联分析的不同路径台风灾害研究[J].灾害学,2017,32(2):48-53.
[10]陈香.福建省台风灾害风险评估与区划[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(6):961-966.
[11]叶金玉.基于多维矩阵的台风灾害链综合风险评估模型及其信息图谱表达[D].福州:福建师范大学,2015.
[12]朱婧,陆逸,李国平,等.基于县级分辨率的福建省台风灾害风险评估[J].灾害学,2017,32(3):204-209.
[13]周亚飞,程霄楠,蔡靖,等.台风灾害综合风险评价研究[J].风险管理,2013(1):31-37.
[14]周小梅,杜清运,彭瑞.浙江省台风灾害风险区划研究[J].地理空间信息,2018,16(8):12-16.
[15]Alexandros A.Taflanidis,Gaofeng Jia,Norberto C.Nadal-Caraballo,et.al.Development of Real-Time Tools for Hurricane Risk Assessment[A].Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management(ICVRAM)and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty,Modeling,and Analysis(ISUMA)[C],Liverpool,UK:July 13-16,2014.
[16]郑菲,孙诚,李建平.从气候变化的新视角理解灾害风险、暴露度、脆弱性和恢复力[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(2):79-83.
[17]Kossin J P,Emanuel K A,Camargo S J.Past and projected changes in western north pacific tropical cyclone exposure[J].Journal of Climate,2016,29(6):5725-5739.
[18]Ying M,Zhang W,Yu H,et.al.An overview of the China Meteorological Administration tropical cyclone database[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology,2014,31:287-301.
[19]中国行政区划下载中心.http://seisman.info/china-administrative-areas-data.html
[20]Paul A Z.Exposure of US counties to Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes,1851-2003[J].Natural Hazards,2009,48:83-99.
[21]徐建华.现代地理学的数学方法(第二版)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002.
[22]孙文生.统计学原理(第三版)[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2012.