人民币汇率与中国出口商品结构:短期、长期和未来变动
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摘要
本文从价格弹性、生产投入、要素价格3个方面探讨了汇率变动影响出口商品结构的理论机制,进而从价格弹性、长短期关系以及未来变动的视角对其进行了实证检验。主要结论表明,人民币升值轻微抑制了中国整体出口,不同商品受到影响的程度不同。升值将减少初级产品和劳动密集型产品的出口,增加部分资本、技术密集型产品的出口,由于汇率的长期弹性要大于短期,这种结构优化将是一个长期过程。另外,不同的升值方式和升值幅度所导致的出口商品结构变动是不同的,为了实现出口贸易的稳定发展,渐进升值是较好的选择。
This paper explains how exchange rate change affects the export commodity structure based on price elasticity, production inputs, and factor prices, and we get some empirical evidence from the perspectives of price elasticity, long short-term and future. The main results show RMB appreciation slightly cuts down China's overall export. It reduces the export of primary products and labor-intensive products, increases the export of capital, technology-intensive products, so the export commodity structure can be optimized in a long run. Different commodity has different price transmission elasticity of the exchange change, and this transmission on China's export commodity structure is imperfect. The changes of the export structure perform differently by different ways and extents of RMB appreciation. Progressive appreciation of the way is a better choice.
This paper explains how exchange rate change affects the export commodity structure based on price elasticity, production inputs, and factor prices, and we get some empirical evidence from the perspectives of price elasticity, long short-term and future. The main results show RMB appreciation slightly cuts down China's overall export. It reduces the export of primary products and labor-intensive products, increases the export of capital, technology-intensive products, so the export commodity structure can be optimized in a long run. Different commodity has different price transmission elasticity of the exchange change, and this transmission on China's export commodity structure is imperfect. The changes of the export structure perform differently by different ways and extents of RMB appreciation. Progressive appreciation of the way is a better choice.
引文
[1]Auer, R., Chaney, T. Cost Pass Through in a Competitive Model of Pricing-to-Market[J]. Swiss National Bank Working Paper, 2008.
[2]Backus, D. K., Kahoe, P. J., Kydland, F. E. Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade:The J-Curve?[J]. American Economic Review, 1994,84(1).
[3]Berman, N., Martin, P., Mayer, T. How Do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2012,127(1).
[4]Boyd, D., Caporale, M. G., Smith, R. Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade:Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition[J]. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2001,(6).
[5]Cerra, V., Soikkeli, J., Saxena, S. How Competitive Is Irish Manufacturing?[J]. Economic and Social Review,2003, 34.
[6]Chen, Yu-chin, Rogoff, K. Commodity Currencies[J]. Journal of International Economics, 2003, 60(1).
[7]Chou, W. L. Exchange Rate Variability and China’s Exports[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2000, 28.
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[13]毕玉江,朱钟棣.人民币汇率变动对中国商品出口价格的传递效应[J].世界经济, 2007,(5).
[14]陈六傅,钱学锋,刘厚俊.人民币实际汇率波动风险对我国各类企业出口的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2007,(7).
[15]胡冬梅,郑尊信,潘世明.汇率传递与出口商品价格决定:基于深圳港2000~2008年高度分解面板数据的经验分析[J].世界经济, 2010,(6).
[16]李宏彬,马弘,熊艳艳,徐嫄.人民币汇率对企业进出口贸易的影响——来自中国企业的实证研究[J].金融研究, 2011,(2).
[17]李志斌.人民币实际有效汇率调整及其波动率与中美贸易收支[J].国际贸易问题, 2009,(1).
[18]林清泉,杨丰.中国进出口贸易的J曲线效应分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2007,(11).
[19]马君潞,王博,杨新铭.人民币汇率变动对我国出口贸易结构的影响研究——基于SITC标准产业数据的实证分析[J].国际金融研究, 2010,(12).
[20]张晓莉,刘啟仁.汇率弹性、货币篮设计与政策实效分析[J].经济研究, 2011,(11).
[21]曾铮,张亚斌.人民币实际汇率升值与中国出口商品结构调整[J].世界经济, 2007,(5).
(1)原始数据整理及其预处理过程不在此列出,如有需要作者可另行提供。
(1)由于采用的是月度数据,需将年度增长率转化为月度增长率来求解。
(2)(3)限于篇幅,不在此报告人民币实际有效汇率增长率的结果,如有需要作者可另行提供。
[2]Backus, D. K., Kahoe, P. J., Kydland, F. E. Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade:The J-Curve?[J]. American Economic Review, 1994,84(1).
[3]Berman, N., Martin, P., Mayer, T. How Do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2012,127(1).
[4]Boyd, D., Caporale, M. G., Smith, R. Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade:Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition[J]. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2001,(6).
[5]Cerra, V., Soikkeli, J., Saxena, S. How Competitive Is Irish Manufacturing?[J]. Economic and Social Review,2003, 34.
[6]Chen, Yu-chin, Rogoff, K. Commodity Currencies[J]. Journal of International Economics, 2003, 60(1).
[7]Chou, W. L. Exchange Rate Variability and China’s Exports[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2000, 28.
[8]Dornbusch, R. Exchange Rates and Prices[J]. American Economic Review, 1987, 77.
[9]Eichengreen, B. Exchange Rate Stability and Financial Stability[J]. Open Economies Review, 1998, 9(1).
[10] Goldstein, M., Khan, M. Income and Price Elasticities in Foreign Trade Handbook of International Economics[J]. Amsterdam:North-Holland, 1985, Volume 2.
[11] Klein, Michael W. Macroeconomic Aspects of Exchange Rate Pass-through[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 1990, vol.9(4).
[12] Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., Smith. R. P. Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1999, 94.
[13]毕玉江,朱钟棣.人民币汇率变动对中国商品出口价格的传递效应[J].世界经济, 2007,(5).
[14]陈六傅,钱学锋,刘厚俊.人民币实际汇率波动风险对我国各类企业出口的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2007,(7).
[15]胡冬梅,郑尊信,潘世明.汇率传递与出口商品价格决定:基于深圳港2000~2008年高度分解面板数据的经验分析[J].世界经济, 2010,(6).
[16]李宏彬,马弘,熊艳艳,徐嫄.人民币汇率对企业进出口贸易的影响——来自中国企业的实证研究[J].金融研究, 2011,(2).
[17]李志斌.人民币实际有效汇率调整及其波动率与中美贸易收支[J].国际贸易问题, 2009,(1).
[18]林清泉,杨丰.中国进出口贸易的J曲线效应分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2007,(11).
[19]马君潞,王博,杨新铭.人民币汇率变动对我国出口贸易结构的影响研究——基于SITC标准产业数据的实证分析[J].国际金融研究, 2010,(12).
[20]张晓莉,刘啟仁.汇率弹性、货币篮设计与政策实效分析[J].经济研究, 2011,(11).
[21]曾铮,张亚斌.人民币实际汇率升值与中国出口商品结构调整[J].世界经济, 2007,(5).
(1)原始数据整理及其预处理过程不在此列出,如有需要作者可另行提供。
(1)由于采用的是月度数据,需将年度增长率转化为月度增长率来求解。
(2)(3)限于篇幅,不在此报告人民币实际有效汇率增长率的结果,如有需要作者可另行提供。