基于随机潮流和风险价值的含大规模风电系统高风险连锁故障评估
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摘要
随着系统中风电渗透率的增加,风电出力不确定性对电力系统连锁故障演化路径的影响不可忽视。基于此,引入随机潮流和风险价值理论,构建一种高风险连锁故障事故链模型,分析含大规模风电系统连锁故障事件的风险程度。首先基于多点风电随机注入相关性的随机潮流方法,提出了前瞻故障实时概率和严重度的后续故障搜索指标,据其风险价值选取高风险故障作为下级故障。其次,为反映风电随机性对风险指标的影响,采用模糊聚类建立风电场景,计算系统失负荷损失风险指标。基于该指标可分析当前运行点处于安全运行区域还是连锁故障高风险区域,指导系统日内调度。最后以改进的IEEE 39节点系统为例,说明了所提模型和算法的合理性,并分析了风电渗透率和风电预测误差对连锁故障停电风险的影响。
With increase of wind power penetration rate in power system, the influence of wind power output uncertainty on evolution path of power system cascading outage cannot be ignored. Based on this, this paper proposes a high risk fault chain model, and uses stochastic power flow and value at risk theory to analyze the risk level of cascading outages. Firstly, during fault chain forecasting, the follow-up fault search indicators combining real-time failure probability and fault consequence are constructed based on stochastic power flow considering correlation of wind power. Subsequent faults are selected according to the values at risk of these indicators. Secondly, in order to reflect the impact of wind power randomness on risk indicators, fuzzy clustering is used to establish wind power scenarios, then system loss of a load risk indicator is calculated. Based on the indicator, it can be analyzed whether current operating point is in a safe or a high-risk area, thereby guiding the system intraday scheduling. Finally, the improved IEEE 39-node system is taken as an example to illustrate rationality of the proposed model and algorithm. And the influence of wind power penetration rate and wind power forecasting error on the risk of cascading outages are analyzed.
With increase of wind power penetration rate in power system, the influence of wind power output uncertainty on evolution path of power system cascading outage cannot be ignored. Based on this, this paper proposes a high risk fault chain model, and uses stochastic power flow and value at risk theory to analyze the risk level of cascading outages. Firstly, during fault chain forecasting, the follow-up fault search indicators combining real-time failure probability and fault consequence are constructed based on stochastic power flow considering correlation of wind power. Subsequent faults are selected according to the values at risk of these indicators. Secondly, in order to reflect the impact of wind power randomness on risk indicators, fuzzy clustering is used to establish wind power scenarios, then system loss of a load risk indicator is calculated. Based on the indicator, it can be analyzed whether current operating point is in a safe or a high-risk area, thereby guiding the system intraday scheduling. Finally, the improved IEEE 39-node system is taken as an example to illustrate rationality of the proposed model and algorithm. And the influence of wind power penetration rate and wind power forecasting error on the risk of cascading outages are analyzed.
引文
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[16]Zhang N,Kang C,Xia Q,et al.Modeling conditional forecast error for wind power in generation scheduling[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2014,29(3):1316-1324.
[17]王成福,王昭卿,孙宏斌,等.考虑预测误差时序分布特性的含风电机组组合模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(15):4081-4089.Wang Chengfu,Wang Zhaoqing,Sun Hongbin,et al.Model of unit commitment with wind farm considering time series characteristic of wind power forecast error[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(15):4081-4089(in Chinese).
[18]蔡德福.计及相关性的概率潮流计算方法及应用研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2014.
[19]张硕,顾雪平.电力系统大停电事故仿真的故障序列选择[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(14):12-16.Zhang Shuo,Gu Xueping.Determination of the fault series in cascading fault simulation of power systems[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2009,33(14):12-16(in Chinese).
[20]Chater B.Power system protection[J].Electronics&Power,1999,15(10):364.
[21]薛禹胜,谢云云,文福拴,等.关于电力系统相继故障研究的评述[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(19):1-9.Xue Yusheng,Xie Yunyun,Wen Fushuan,et al.A review on cascading failures in power systems[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(19):1-9(in Chinese).
[22]程林,刘满君,易俊,等.基于运行可靠性模型的连锁故障模拟及薄弱环节分析[J].电网技术,2016,40(5):1488-1494.Cheng Lin,Liu Manjun,Yi Jun,et al.The power system cascading outage simulation and vulnerability analysis based on operational reliability model[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(5):1488-1494(in Chinese).
[23]吴旭,张建华,吴林伟,等.输电系统连锁故障的运行风险评估算法[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(34):74-82.Wu Xu,Zhang Jianhua,Wu Linwei,et al.Method of operational risk assessment on transmission system cascading failure[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2012,32(34):74-82(in Chinese).
[24]张国华,段满银,张建华,等.基于证据理论和效用理论的电力系统风险评估[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(23):1-4.Zhang Guohua,Duan Manyin,Zhang Jianhua,et al.Power system risk assessment based on the evidence theory and utility theory[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2009,33(23):1-4(in Chinese).
[25]张雪敏,谢宇翔,郭金鹏,等.考虑等级事故概率约束的输电网利用效率评估方法[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(7):1-7.Zhang Xuemin,Xie Yuxiang,Guo Jinpeng,et al.Evaluation method for utilization efficiency of transmission grid considering accident probability constraints[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(7):1-7(in Chinese).
[26]Domínguez R,Conejo A J,Carrión M.Toward fully renewable electric energy systems[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2014,30(1):316-326.
[27]汪超群,韦化,吴思缘.计及风电不确定性的随机安全约束机组组合[J].电网技术,2017,41(5):1419-1427.Wang Chaoqun,Wei Hua,Wu Siyuan.Stochastic-security-constrained unit commitment considering uncertainty of wind power[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(5):1419-1427(in Chinese).
[28]吴文可,文福拴,薛禹胜,等.基于马尔可夫链的电力系统连锁故障预测[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(5):29-37.Wu Wenke,Wen Fushuan,Xue Yusheng,et al.A Markov chain based model for forecasting power system cascading failures[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(5):29-37(in Chinese).
[29]杨明,韩学山,梁军,等.基于等响应风险约束的动态经济调度[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(1):14-17.Yang Ming,Han Xueshan,Liang Jun,et al.Dynamic economic dispatch with equal response risk constraints[J].Automation of Electric Power System,2009,33(1):14-17(in Chinese).
[30]Li H,Lu Z,Qiao Y,et al.Risk assessment of power system with high penetration of wind power considering negative peak shaving and extreme weather conditions[C]//Power Engineering Society General Meeting.National Harbor,USA:IEEE,2014:1-5.
[31]System Information[EB/OL].http://www.eirgridgroup.com/how-thegrid-works/system-information/,2016-01-01-2017-12-31.
[2]曾辉,孙峰,李铁,等.澳大利亚“9.28”大停电事故分析及对中国启示[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(13):1-6.Zeng Hui,Sun Feng,Li Tie,et al.Analysis of“9.28”blackout in South Australia and its enlightenment to China[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(13):1-6(in Chinese).
[3]Qi J,Mei S,Liu F,Blackout model considering slow process[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2013,28(3):3274-3282.
[4]Wang Z,Scaglione A,Thomas R J.A Markov-transition model for cascading failures in power grids[C]//Proc 2012 45th Hawaii International Conference System Sciences,Hawaii,USA:2012:2115-2124.
[5]Fu L,Huang W,Xiao S,et al.Vulnerability assessment for power grid based on small-world topological model[C]//Power and Energy Engineering Conference.IEEE,2010:1-4.
[6]韩宇奇,何宜倩,楼凤丹,等.基于SDN的动态优化路由策略在信息物理融合电力系统连锁故障中的研究与应用[J].电网技术,2018,42(8):2620-2629.Han Yuqi,He Yiqian,Lou Fengdan,et al.Analysis and application of SDN based dynamic optimal route strategy for cyber layer in cascading failures of cyber-physical power system[J].Power System Technology,2018,42(8):2620-2629(in Chinese).
[7]宣晓华,周野,宋晓芳,等.基于系统与元件动态交互量化分析的电力系统连锁故障事故链识别方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018(2):101-109.Xuan Xiaohua,Zhou Ye,Song Xiaofang,et al.A novel searching method of fault chains for power system cascading outages based on quantitative analysis of dynamic interaction between system and components[J].Power System Protection and Control,2018(2):101-109(in Chinese).
[8]丁明,肖遥,张晶晶,等.基于事故链及动态故障树的电网连锁故障风险评估模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(4):821-829.Ding Ming,Xiao Yao,Zhang Jingjing,et al.Risk assessment model of power grid cascading failures based on fault chain and dynamic fault tree[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(4):821-829(in Chinese).
[9]Wang A,Luo Y,Tu G,et al.Vulnerability assessment scheme for power system transmission networks based on the fault chain theory[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2011,26(1):442-450.
[10]孙启明,石立宝,司大军,等.基于连锁故障事故链搜索的输电网风险评估研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(19):27-34.Sun Qiming,Shi Libao,Si Dajun,et al.Study on the risk assessment for transmission network based on failure chain search[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(19):27-34(in Chinese).
[11]Yao R,Huang S,Sun K,et al.Risk assessment of multi-timescale cascading outages based on Markovian tree search[J].IEEETransactions on Power Systems,2017,32(4):2887-2900.
[12]张雪敏,钟雨芯,梅生伟,等.含双馈风电场的电力系统停电风险研究[J].电工电能新技术,2016,35(7):1-7.Zhang Xuemin,Zhong Yuxin,Mei Shengwei,et al.Blackout risk analysis of power system integrated with DFIG wind farm[J].Advanced Technology of Electrical Engineering and Energy,2016,35(7):1-7(in Chinese).
[13]Xu Guchao,Chen Yixi,Ma Gang,et al.Study on early warning of cascading failure for power grid considering wind power integration[C]//Materials Science and Engineering Conference Series.Materials Science and Engineering Conference Series,2017.
[14]Athari M H,Wang Z.Impacts of wind power uncertainty on grid vulnerability to cascading overload failures[J].IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy,2018,9(1):128-137.
[15]朱星阳,黄宇峰,张建华,等.基于随机潮流的含风电电力系统静态安全评估[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(20):46-53.Zhu Xingyang,Huang Yufeng,Zhang Jianhua,et al.Optimal preventive maintenance cycle based on reliability cost-benefit analysis[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(20):46-53(in Chinese).
[16]Zhang N,Kang C,Xia Q,et al.Modeling conditional forecast error for wind power in generation scheduling[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2014,29(3):1316-1324.
[17]王成福,王昭卿,孙宏斌,等.考虑预测误差时序分布特性的含风电机组组合模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(15):4081-4089.Wang Chengfu,Wang Zhaoqing,Sun Hongbin,et al.Model of unit commitment with wind farm considering time series characteristic of wind power forecast error[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(15):4081-4089(in Chinese).
[18]蔡德福.计及相关性的概率潮流计算方法及应用研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2014.
[19]张硕,顾雪平.电力系统大停电事故仿真的故障序列选择[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(14):12-16.Zhang Shuo,Gu Xueping.Determination of the fault series in cascading fault simulation of power systems[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2009,33(14):12-16(in Chinese).
[20]Chater B.Power system protection[J].Electronics&Power,1999,15(10):364.
[21]薛禹胜,谢云云,文福拴,等.关于电力系统相继故障研究的评述[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(19):1-9.Xue Yusheng,Xie Yunyun,Wen Fushuan,et al.A review on cascading failures in power systems[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(19):1-9(in Chinese).
[22]程林,刘满君,易俊,等.基于运行可靠性模型的连锁故障模拟及薄弱环节分析[J].电网技术,2016,40(5):1488-1494.Cheng Lin,Liu Manjun,Yi Jun,et al.The power system cascading outage simulation and vulnerability analysis based on operational reliability model[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(5):1488-1494(in Chinese).
[23]吴旭,张建华,吴林伟,等.输电系统连锁故障的运行风险评估算法[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(34):74-82.Wu Xu,Zhang Jianhua,Wu Linwei,et al.Method of operational risk assessment on transmission system cascading failure[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2012,32(34):74-82(in Chinese).
[24]张国华,段满银,张建华,等.基于证据理论和效用理论的电力系统风险评估[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(23):1-4.Zhang Guohua,Duan Manyin,Zhang Jianhua,et al.Power system risk assessment based on the evidence theory and utility theory[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2009,33(23):1-4(in Chinese).
[25]张雪敏,谢宇翔,郭金鹏,等.考虑等级事故概率约束的输电网利用效率评估方法[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(7):1-7.Zhang Xuemin,Xie Yuxiang,Guo Jinpeng,et al.Evaluation method for utilization efficiency of transmission grid considering accident probability constraints[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(7):1-7(in Chinese).
[26]Domínguez R,Conejo A J,Carrión M.Toward fully renewable electric energy systems[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2014,30(1):316-326.
[27]汪超群,韦化,吴思缘.计及风电不确定性的随机安全约束机组组合[J].电网技术,2017,41(5):1419-1427.Wang Chaoqun,Wei Hua,Wu Siyuan.Stochastic-security-constrained unit commitment considering uncertainty of wind power[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(5):1419-1427(in Chinese).
[28]吴文可,文福拴,薛禹胜,等.基于马尔可夫链的电力系统连锁故障预测[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(5):29-37.Wu Wenke,Wen Fushuan,Xue Yusheng,et al.A Markov chain based model for forecasting power system cascading failures[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(5):29-37(in Chinese).
[29]杨明,韩学山,梁军,等.基于等响应风险约束的动态经济调度[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(1):14-17.Yang Ming,Han Xueshan,Liang Jun,et al.Dynamic economic dispatch with equal response risk constraints[J].Automation of Electric Power System,2009,33(1):14-17(in Chinese).
[30]Li H,Lu Z,Qiao Y,et al.Risk assessment of power system with high penetration of wind power considering negative peak shaving and extreme weather conditions[C]//Power Engineering Society General Meeting.National Harbor,USA:IEEE,2014:1-5.
[31]System Information[EB/OL].http://www.eirgridgroup.com/how-thegrid-works/system-information/,2016-01-01-2017-12-31.