多维视角下我国入境旅游与进出口贸易的时空耦合关系研究
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摘要
基于重心模型,利用1997年～2016年我国大陆31个省份入境旅游与进出口贸易的空间面板数据,基于多维视角,在验证二者时空耦合的基础上分析了其耦合的空间差异,并进一步探讨了其形成机制。研究表明:入境旅游和进出口贸易重心在空间分布上呈"H"型嵌套耦合格局,均经历了东移-北进-西拓的迂回演化路径,演化速度和幅度同步,演化方向和趋势同向;3大地带入境旅游与进出口贸易重心分别呈"±"、"/"和"\"型嵌套耦合格局,在路径耦合上分别呈东移-西拓迂回型、东北-西南线性和西北-东南线性耦合状;在方向耦合上分别呈向东北、西南和东南的高频次耦合状;在速度和幅度耦合程度上,均呈东部>中部>西部的空间差异;在趋势耦合上,分别呈向西部、西南和东南的演化趋势;二者的时空耦合受到"四位一体"驱动力的作用。经济利益驱动是内驱力,交通的不断提升是外动力,旅游贸易需求差异是耦合格局形成的决定力,地带差异是耦合产生空间差异的外推力。
Based on the gravity center model,the spatial panel data of inbound tourism and import and export trade in 31 provinces of China from 1997 to 2016,the multidimensional perspective, and the verification of time and space coupling, the spatial differences of the coupling are analyzed and the formation mechanism is further explored. The research shows that the focus of inbound tourism and import and export trade is "H" type nested coupling pattern in spatial distribution, and both have experienced the roundabout evolution path towards East,North and West, with the synchronized evolution speed and amplitude and the same evolution direction and trend. The focus of inbound tourism and import and export trade in the three major regions are "± "、"/" and"\"type nested coupling patterns respectively.In the path coupling, they are eastward-westward roundabout,northeast-southwest linear, and northwest-southeast linear coupling separately.In the direction coupling, they have a high-frequency coupling to the northeast, southwest, and southeastseparately. In the coupling of velocity and amplitude, they all have a spatial difference of east>middle>west. In the trend coupling, they are trending toward the west, southwest and southeast separately. The time and space coupling of the two is driven by the"four-in-one" driving force. The driving of economic interests is the internal driving force and the continuous improvement of transportation is the external driving force. The difference in tourism trade demand is the determining force of the formation of the coupling pattern andthe difference in the zone is the external thrust of the spatial difference of the coupling.
Based on the gravity center model,the spatial panel data of inbound tourism and import and export trade in 31 provinces of China from 1997 to 2016,the multidimensional perspective, and the verification of time and space coupling, the spatial differences of the coupling are analyzed and the formation mechanism is further explored. The research shows that the focus of inbound tourism and import and export trade is "H" type nested coupling pattern in spatial distribution, and both have experienced the roundabout evolution path towards East,North and West, with the synchronized evolution speed and amplitude and the same evolution direction and trend. The focus of inbound tourism and import and export trade in the three major regions are "± "、"/" and"\"type nested coupling patterns respectively.In the path coupling, they are eastward-westward roundabout,northeast-southwest linear, and northwest-southeast linear coupling separately.In the direction coupling, they have a high-frequency coupling to the northeast, southwest, and southeastseparately. In the coupling of velocity and amplitude, they all have a spatial difference of east>middle>west. In the trend coupling, they are trending toward the west, southwest and southeast separately. The time and space coupling of the two is driven by the"four-in-one" driving force. The driving of economic interests is the internal driving force and the continuous improvement of transportation is the external driving force. The difference in tourism trade demand is the determining force of the formation of the coupling pattern andthe difference in the zone is the external thrust of the spatial difference of the coupling.
引文
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[24]李创新,马耀峰,张佑印等.中国旅游热点城市入境客流与收入时空动态演化与错位--重力模型的实证[J].经济地理,2010(8):1372-1377.
[25]李秋雨,朱麟奇,刘继生.中国入境旅游的经济增长效应与空间差异性研究[J].地理科学,2017(10):1552-1559.
[26]裴长洪.进口贸易结构与经济增长:规律与启示[J].经济研究,2013(7):4-19.
[27]万绪才,王厚廷,傅朝霞等.中国城市入境旅游发展差异及其影响因素———以重点旅游城市为例[J].地理研究,2013(2):337-346.
[28]王兆峰.入境旅游流与航空运输网络协同演化及差异分析———以西南地区为例[J].地理研究,2012(7):1328-1338.
[29]张艳艳,于津平.交通基础设施、相邻效应与双边贸易———基于中国与“一带一路”国家贸易数据的实证研究[J].当代财经,2018(3):98-109.
[30]贺小荣,郭红.顾客关系嵌入性对旅游企业创新绩效的影响研究[J].湖南财政经济学院学报,2018(4):13-22.
[2]王永辉.由《易·旅》浅议我国古代商旅[J].教育与教学研究,2006(12):139-140.
[3]杜美龄,孙根年.30年来国际“贸易-交通-旅游”(3T)互动的统计分析[J].人文地理, 2015(2):155-160.
[4]Kulendran N,Wilson K.Is there a relationship between international trade and international travel[J].Applied Economics,2000(8):1001-1009.
[5] Jordan S, Ken W. Causality between trade and tourism:empirical evidence from China[J]. Applied Economics Letters, 2001(4):279-283.
[6] Khalid H A, Qudair Al. The causal relationship between tourism and international trade in some Islamic countries[J].Economic Studies,2005(10):45-56.
[7]Katircioglu, Salih. Tourism, trade and growth:the case of Cyprus[J]. Applied Economics, 2009(21):2741-2750.
[8]Aradhyula S,Tronstad R.Does Tourism Promote Cross-Border Trade?[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2003(3):569-579.
[9]Kadir N,Jusoff K. The Cointegration and Causality Tests for Tourism and Trade in Malaysia[J]. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2010, 2(1):138-143.
[10]María Gallego, Francisco Rodríguez, Jorge Rodríguez. Tourism and trade in OECD countries.A dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis[J].Empirical Economics,2011(2):533-554.
[11]Wong K N, Tang T C. Tourism and openness to trade in Singapore:Evidence using aggregate and country-level data[J].Tourism Economics, 2010(4):965-980.
[12]孙根年.大国优势与中国旅游业的高速持续增长[J].旅游学刊,2008(4):29-34.
[13]马丽君,孙根年,王洁洁等.15年来中日出入境旅游对双边贸易的影响[J].经济地理,2010(4):672-677.
[14]赵多平,孙根年,马丽君等.中国对俄口岸城市出入境旅游与进出口贸易互动关系的研究———1993-2009年满洲里市的实证分析[J].经济地理,2011(10):1733-1739.
[15]王洁洁,孙根年,马丽君等.中韩出入境旅游对进出口贸易推动作用的实证分析[J].软科学,2010(8):30-35.
[16]刘玉萍,郭郡郡.入境旅游与对外贸易的关系———基于中国2001-2008年月度数据的实证分析[J].经济地理,2011(4):696-700.
[17]刘珍珍,章锦河.中国国际旅游与国际贸易关系的协整及Granger因果分析[J].资源开发与市场,2010(7):593-597.
[18]石张宇,徐虹,沈惊宏.中俄双边旅游与进出口贸易互动关系的实证研究[J].人文地理,2015(2):141-147.
[19]马丽君,郭留留,龙茂兴等.1994年来中国入境旅游与对外贸易重心演变及其相关分析[J].经济地理,2015(11):198-204.
[20]高楠,马耀峰,李天顺等.1993-2010年中国入境旅游与进口贸易耦合关系时空分异研究[J].经济地理,2012(11):143-148.
[21]赵多平,王翠婷,曹兰州.宁夏赴阿拉伯国家出境商务旅游影响因素及机理研究[J].人文地理,2017(6):146-153.
[22]陈乔,程成.贸易对旅游的门槛效应和国别差异———基于中国与24个对象国的实证[J].旅游学刊,2018(11):37-47.
[23]周申,陈梅,杨德彬.新出口企业的初期“实验”和后续扩张———基于中国微观数据的经验研究[J].中国经济问题,2018(1):108-119.
[24]李创新,马耀峰,张佑印等.中国旅游热点城市入境客流与收入时空动态演化与错位--重力模型的实证[J].经济地理,2010(8):1372-1377.
[25]李秋雨,朱麟奇,刘继生.中国入境旅游的经济增长效应与空间差异性研究[J].地理科学,2017(10):1552-1559.
[26]裴长洪.进口贸易结构与经济增长:规律与启示[J].经济研究,2013(7):4-19.
[27]万绪才,王厚廷,傅朝霞等.中国城市入境旅游发展差异及其影响因素———以重点旅游城市为例[J].地理研究,2013(2):337-346.
[28]王兆峰.入境旅游流与航空运输网络协同演化及差异分析———以西南地区为例[J].地理研究,2012(7):1328-1338.
[29]张艳艳,于津平.交通基础设施、相邻效应与双边贸易———基于中国与“一带一路”国家贸易数据的实证研究[J].当代财经,2018(3):98-109.
[30]贺小荣,郭红.顾客关系嵌入性对旅游企业创新绩效的影响研究[J].湖南财政经济学院学报,2018(4):13-22.