环境规制对产业结构升级的影响——基于中国沿海城市系统广义矩估计的实证分析
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摘要
为检验环境规制能否推动沿海地区产业结构升级,从正式环境规制与产业结构升级的非线性关系和非正式环境规制的直接影响入手,采用我国沿海33个城市2007—2016年动态面板数据构建计量模型,利用系统广义矩估计(GMM)法进行检验。研究结果表明:我国沿海地区环境规制与产业结构升级存在"U"型关系,拐点值为0.4452,环境规制强度小于拐点值时抑制产业结构升级,越过拐点值时促进产业结构升级,目前33个城市的环境规制强度均已越过拐点值且东部沿海地区最高;非正式环境规制中,人均收入、人力资本和技术创新水平显著促进产业结构升级,人口密度、外商投资和贸易水平对产业结构升级具有负向作用且显著性存在区域差异性。
In order to test whether environmental regulation can promote the upgrading of industrial structure in coastal areas, this paper starts with the non-linear relationship between formal environmental regulation and industrial structure upgrading and the direct impact of informal environmental regulation, based on the dynamic panel data of 33 coastal cities in China from 2007 to 2016, an econometric model is constructed and tested by the generalized moment estimation(GMM) method. The results show that:(1)There is a U-type relationship between environmental regulation and industrial structure upgrading in coastal areas of China, the turning point value is 0.445, when the intensity of environmental regulation is smaller than the inflection point, the upgrading of industrial structure is restrained, and the upgrading of industrial structure is promoted when the intensity of environmental regulation is less than the inflection point. At present, the intensity of environmental regulation in 33 cities has already crossed the inflection point and the highest in the eastern coastal area.(2)Among the informal environmental regulation, the level of per capita income, human capital and technological innovation significantly promote the upgrading of industrial structure, while the population density and the level of foreign investment and trade have a negative effect on the upgrading of industrial structure, and there are significant regional differences.
In order to test whether environmental regulation can promote the upgrading of industrial structure in coastal areas, this paper starts with the non-linear relationship between formal environmental regulation and industrial structure upgrading and the direct impact of informal environmental regulation, based on the dynamic panel data of 33 coastal cities in China from 2007 to 2016, an econometric model is constructed and tested by the generalized moment estimation(GMM) method. The results show that:(1)There is a U-type relationship between environmental regulation and industrial structure upgrading in coastal areas of China, the turning point value is 0.445, when the intensity of environmental regulation is smaller than the inflection point, the upgrading of industrial structure is restrained, and the upgrading of industrial structure is promoted when the intensity of environmental regulation is less than the inflection point. At present, the intensity of environmental regulation in 33 cities has already crossed the inflection point and the highest in the eastern coastal area.(2)Among the informal environmental regulation, the level of per capita income, human capital and technological innovation significantly promote the upgrading of industrial structure, while the population density and the level of foreign investment and trade have a negative effect on the upgrading of industrial structure, and there are significant regional differences.
引文
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[6]傅京燕,李丽莎.环境规制、要素禀赋与产业国际竞争力的实证研究:基于中国制造业的面板数据[J].管理世界,2010(10):87-98.
[7]马海良,黄德春,姚惠泽.技术创新、产业绩效与环境规制:基于长三角的实证分析[J].软科学,2012,26(01):1-5.
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[13]纪玉俊,刘金梦.环境规制促进了产业升级吗?:人力资本视角下的门限回归检验[J].经济与管理,2016,30(6):81-87.
[14]郑金铃.分权视角下的环境规制竞争与产业结构调整[J].当代经济科学,2016,38(1): 77-85.
[15]陈松洲.后危机时代广东沿海经济带产业结构升级的路径选择[J].当代经济管理,2014,36(6) :76-82.
[16]苑清敏,申婷婷,冯冬.我国沿海地区海陆战略性新兴产业协同发展研究[J].科技管理研究,2015,35 (9):99-104.
[17]陈蔓生,吴明圣.基于内生型产业集群的江苏沿海海洋产业创新发展研究[J].南通大学学报,2018,34(2):15-20.
[18]赵玉民,朱方明,贺立龙.环境规制的界定、分类与演进研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(6):85-90.
[19]张江雪,蔡宁,杨陈.环境规制对中国工业绿色增长指数的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2015,25(1):24-31.
[20]黄德春,刘志彪.环境规制与企业自主创新:基于波特假设的企业竞争优势构建[J].中国工业经济,2006(3):100-106.
[21]张成,陆旸,郭路,等.环境规制强度和生产技术进步[J].经济研究,2011,46(2):113-124.
[22]沈坤荣,金刚,方娴.环境规制引起了污染就近转移吗?[J].经济研究,2017,52(5):44-59.
[23]吴敬琏.中国增长模式抉择[M].增订版.上海:上海远东出版社,2008.
[24]JAVORICK B S, WEI SH J. Pollution havens and foreign direct investment: dirty secret or popular myth[J].CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2966.
[25]卫平,余奕杉.环境规制对制造业产业结构升级的影响:基于省级动态面板数据的系统GMM分析[J].经济问题探索,2017(9):144-152.
[26]陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2014.
1)33个沿海城市包括:大连、锦州、营口、唐山、秦皇岛、天津、青岛、烟台、威海、日照、南通、连云港、盐城、上海、嘉兴、杭州、绍兴、宁波、温州、台州、福州、厦门、泉州、宁德、广州、深圳、珠海、汕头、湛江、中山、北海、防城港、海口。
[2]PORTER M E, VAN DER LINDE C. Toward a new conception of the environment competitiveness relationship[J].Journal of Economics Perspect, 1995,9(4):97-118.
[3]BORGHESI S, CAINELLI G, MAZZANTI M. Linking emission trading to environmental innovation: evidence from the Italian manufacturing industry[J].Research policy, 2015,44(3):669-683.
[4]BECKER R, HENDERSON V.Effects of air quality regulations on polluting industries [J].Journal of Political Economy, 2000,108(2):379-421.
[5]KNELLER R, MANDERSON E. Environmental regulations and innovation activity in UK manufacturing industries[J].Resource & Energy Economics, 2012,34(2):211-235.
[6]傅京燕,李丽莎.环境规制、要素禀赋与产业国际竞争力的实证研究:基于中国制造业的面板数据[J].管理世界,2010(10):87-98.
[7]马海良,黄德春,姚惠泽.技术创新、产业绩效与环境规制:基于长三角的实证分析[J].软科学,2012,26(01):1-5.
[8]张成, 于同申.环境规制会影响产业集中度吗?:一个经验研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22 (3):98-103.
[9]梅国平,龚海林.环境规制对产业结构变迁的影响机制研究[J].经济经纬,2013(2):72-76.
[10]龚海林.环境规制促进产业结构优化升级的绩效分析[J].财经理论与实践,2013,34(5):85-89.
[11]肖兴志,李少林.环境规制对产业升级路径的动态影响研究[J].经济理论与经济管理,2013(6):102-112.
[12]原毅军,谢荣辉.环境规制的产业结构调整效应研究:基于中国省际面板数据的实证检验[J].中国工业经济,2014(8):57-69.
[13]纪玉俊,刘金梦.环境规制促进了产业升级吗?:人力资本视角下的门限回归检验[J].经济与管理,2016,30(6):81-87.
[14]郑金铃.分权视角下的环境规制竞争与产业结构调整[J].当代经济科学,2016,38(1): 77-85.
[15]陈松洲.后危机时代广东沿海经济带产业结构升级的路径选择[J].当代经济管理,2014,36(6) :76-82.
[16]苑清敏,申婷婷,冯冬.我国沿海地区海陆战略性新兴产业协同发展研究[J].科技管理研究,2015,35 (9):99-104.
[17]陈蔓生,吴明圣.基于内生型产业集群的江苏沿海海洋产业创新发展研究[J].南通大学学报,2018,34(2):15-20.
[18]赵玉民,朱方明,贺立龙.环境规制的界定、分类与演进研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(6):85-90.
[19]张江雪,蔡宁,杨陈.环境规制对中国工业绿色增长指数的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2015,25(1):24-31.
[20]黄德春,刘志彪.环境规制与企业自主创新:基于波特假设的企业竞争优势构建[J].中国工业经济,2006(3):100-106.
[21]张成,陆旸,郭路,等.环境规制强度和生产技术进步[J].经济研究,2011,46(2):113-124.
[22]沈坤荣,金刚,方娴.环境规制引起了污染就近转移吗?[J].经济研究,2017,52(5):44-59.
[23]吴敬琏.中国增长模式抉择[M].增订版.上海:上海远东出版社,2008.
[24]JAVORICK B S, WEI SH J. Pollution havens and foreign direct investment: dirty secret or popular myth[J].CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2966.
[25]卫平,余奕杉.环境规制对制造业产业结构升级的影响:基于省级动态面板数据的系统GMM分析[J].经济问题探索,2017(9):144-152.
[26]陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2014.
1)33个沿海城市包括:大连、锦州、营口、唐山、秦皇岛、天津、青岛、烟台、威海、日照、南通、连云港、盐城、上海、嘉兴、杭州、绍兴、宁波、温州、台州、福州、厦门、泉州、宁德、广州、深圳、珠海、汕头、湛江、中山、北海、防城港、海口。