中国煤炭环境成本内部化的经济影响分析
|
摘要
对煤炭开采、运输和使用各个环节的环境污染和生态破坏外部成本进行核算的基础上,运用GREAT-E模型对煤炭环境成本内部化政策给GDP、居民收入、产业结构和贸易竞争力等带来的影响进行了定量分析.分析结果表明,煤炭开采、运输和使用各环节分别进行的环境成本内部化对中国宏观经济的影响较为有限,GDP的下降在可承受的范围之内,即使是全生命周期的煤炭环境成本完全内部化也只导致GDP出现0.15%左右的轻微下降.煤炭环境成本内部化将促进劳动力和资本等要素从高耗能行业向低耗能特别是技术密集型和现代服务业部门转移,进而推动产业结构优化转型升级.在煤炭生产、运输和消费环节通过征收环境相关税费能够更直接地刺激生产部门的环境行为调整,降低煤炭的生产和消费量,进而减少环境污染和生态破坏.
Based on the estimation of value of external environmental cost of coal in its whole life cycle including production, transportation and usage, this study applied GREAT-E model to quantify the impact of the environmental cost internalization policy of coal, including gross domestic products(GDP), residents' income, industrial structure and trade competitiveness. Results showed that the impact of environmental cost internalization for each stage(including production, transportation and usage) to Chinese macro economy was relatively limited, and negative impacts on GDP was acceptable. Even if all environmental costs in the process of coal production, transportation and consumption were internalized, real GDP loss was only 0.15%. The environmental cost internalization of coal was beneficial to optimize the industrial structure and trade structure. High energy-consuming industries would be restrained, and the developments of technology-intensive and modern service industries are accelerated. This was because labor and capital released by high energy-consuming industries are transfer into the technology-intensive and modern service industries. Levy on coal in the process of coal production, transportation and consumption could directly stimulate industries to implement more proper measures to reduce environmental pollution and ecological degradation.
Based on the estimation of value of external environmental cost of coal in its whole life cycle including production, transportation and usage, this study applied GREAT-E model to quantify the impact of the environmental cost internalization policy of coal, including gross domestic products(GDP), residents' income, industrial structure and trade competitiveness. Results showed that the impact of environmental cost internalization for each stage(including production, transportation and usage) to Chinese macro economy was relatively limited, and negative impacts on GDP was acceptable. Even if all environmental costs in the process of coal production, transportation and consumption were internalized, real GDP loss was only 0.15%. The environmental cost internalization of coal was beneficial to optimize the industrial structure and trade structure. High energy-consuming industries would be restrained, and the developments of technology-intensive and modern service industries are accelerated. This was because labor and capital released by high energy-consuming industries are transfer into the technology-intensive and modern service industries. Levy on coal in the process of coal production, transportation and consumption could directly stimulate industries to implement more proper measures to reduce environmental pollution and ecological degradation.
引文
[1]中国能源统计年鉴2012[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2012:35,52.
[2]O'Ryan,Carlos J,de Miguel,et al.A Cge model for environmental and trade policy analysis in chile:Case study for fuel tax increases,documentos de Trabajo 211,Centro de Economíc Aplicada,Universidad de Chile.,2005.
[3]杨岚,毛显强,刘琴,等.基于CGE模型的能源税政策影响分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(2):24-29.
[4]魏巍贤.基于CGE模型的中国能源环境政策分析[J].统计研究,2009,26(7):3-12.
[5]胡宗义,刘亦文.CGE模型在能源税收及汇率领域中的应用研究[M].湖南大学出版社,2009.
[6]王金南,严刚,姜克隽,等.应对气候变化的中国碳税政策研究[J].中国环境科学,2009,29(1):101-105.
[7]刘宇,胡晓虹.环境税的SO2和NOx行业排放分解效应研究[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(1):392-400.
[8]金艳鸣,雷明,黄涛.环境税收对区域经济环境影响的差异性分析[J].经济科学,2007,29(3):104-112.
[9]何建武,李善同.节能减排的环境税收政策影响分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009,(1):31-44.
[10]Robinson S,Yúnez-Naude A,Hinojosa-Ojeda R,et al.From stylized to applied models:building multi-sector CGE models for policy analysis[J].The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,1999,10(1):5–38.
[11]秦昌波.中国环境经济一般均衡分析系统及其应用[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2014.
[12]Qin C,Bressers H J A,Su Z,et al.Economic impacts of water pollution control policy in China:A dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis[J].Environmental Research Letters,2011,6(4):44026-44040.
[13]Qin C.,Jia Y,Su Z,et al.The Economic Impact of Water Tax Charges in China:A Static Computable General Equilibrium Analysis[J].Water International,2012,37(3):279-292.
[14]Qin C,Su Z,Bressers H J A.,et al.Assessing the economic impact of mitigating North China's water scarcity strategy:a multi-regional water Computable general equilibrium analysis[J].Water International,2013,38(6):701-723.
[15]刘倩倩,秦昌波,葛察忠,等.我国煤炭环境外部成本的经济核算[J].中国环境科学,2015,35(6):1892-1900.
[16]郭菊娥,钱冬,吕振东,等.煤炭资源税调整测算模型及其效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(1):78-84.
[2]O'Ryan,Carlos J,de Miguel,et al.A Cge model for environmental and trade policy analysis in chile:Case study for fuel tax increases,documentos de Trabajo 211,Centro de Economíc Aplicada,Universidad de Chile.,2005.
[3]杨岚,毛显强,刘琴,等.基于CGE模型的能源税政策影响分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(2):24-29.
[4]魏巍贤.基于CGE模型的中国能源环境政策分析[J].统计研究,2009,26(7):3-12.
[5]胡宗义,刘亦文.CGE模型在能源税收及汇率领域中的应用研究[M].湖南大学出版社,2009.
[6]王金南,严刚,姜克隽,等.应对气候变化的中国碳税政策研究[J].中国环境科学,2009,29(1):101-105.
[7]刘宇,胡晓虹.环境税的SO2和NOx行业排放分解效应研究[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(1):392-400.
[8]金艳鸣,雷明,黄涛.环境税收对区域经济环境影响的差异性分析[J].经济科学,2007,29(3):104-112.
[9]何建武,李善同.节能减排的环境税收政策影响分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009,(1):31-44.
[10]Robinson S,Yúnez-Naude A,Hinojosa-Ojeda R,et al.From stylized to applied models:building multi-sector CGE models for policy analysis[J].The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,1999,10(1):5–38.
[11]秦昌波.中国环境经济一般均衡分析系统及其应用[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2014.
[12]Qin C,Bressers H J A,Su Z,et al.Economic impacts of water pollution control policy in China:A dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis[J].Environmental Research Letters,2011,6(4):44026-44040.
[13]Qin C.,Jia Y,Su Z,et al.The Economic Impact of Water Tax Charges in China:A Static Computable General Equilibrium Analysis[J].Water International,2012,37(3):279-292.
[14]Qin C,Su Z,Bressers H J A.,et al.Assessing the economic impact of mitigating North China's water scarcity strategy:a multi-regional water Computable general equilibrium analysis[J].Water International,2013,38(6):701-723.
[15]刘倩倩,秦昌波,葛察忠,等.我国煤炭环境外部成本的经济核算[J].中国环境科学,2015,35(6):1892-1900.
[16]郭菊娥,钱冬,吕振东,等.煤炭资源税调整测算模型及其效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(1):78-84.