金砖国家间合作机制下中国农产品出口贸易可以环境成本内部化吗?
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摘要
逆全球化背景下,是否可以利用环境成本内部化深化金砖国家间的经贸—农业—环境合作?本文立足WTO国家合作机制,利用2001—2016年间中国农产品出口100个WTO成员国的样本数据,构建引力模型,分别利用GMM方法和纠偏虚拟变量最小二乘法研究,将中国农业生产的农药使用和化肥施用的环境成本纳入农产品出口的二元边际分析。结论表明,在WTO合作框架下,农药使用、化肥施用的环境成本同时内部化在中国农产品出口价格中并不利于出口增长,要根据不同出口市场、不同出口产品进行具体分析。在金砖国家间合作机制下,农药使用和化肥施用的环境成本内部化对出口集约边际的影响要大于对出口扩展边际的影响,而中国对金砖国家的农产品出口增长主要来自扩展边际增长。金砖合作机制下,农药使用、化肥施用的环境成本内部化在农产品出口价格中表现出更为显著的复杂多样性。其中,将农药使用环境成本分别内部化在与中国地理距离较远、进口国货币相对人民币升值的金砖进口国的蔬菜水果类出口产品价格中,以及在经济规模较小的金砖进口国的谷物类出口产品的价格中非常必要。
引文
[1]邝艳湘,向洪金.国际政治冲突的贸易破坏与转移效应——基于中日关系的实证研究[J].世界经济与政治,2017(9).
[2]林冰,刘方.环境成本内在化与中国出口贸易关系的实证研究[J].山东理工大学学报(社会科学版),2011(1).
[3]林跃勤.合作机制理论与完善金砖国家合作机制研究[J].亚太经济,2017(3).
[4]刘乐,李登旺,仇焕广.中国与金砖国家的农产品贸易:波动特征、影响因素及发展对策——基于引力模型的实证分析[J].人文杂志,2016(1).
[5]马进.中国农产品贸易与农业环境的双向影响机制研究[J].山东社会科学,2017(8).
[6]钱涛,冯中朝,李谷成.中国农产品出口增长的主导因素:集约边际还是扩展边际[J].现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2016(7).
[7]史本叶,张永亮.中国对外贸易成本分解与出口增长的二元边际[J].财经研究,2014(1).
[8]王胜,田涛,谢润德.中国对外直接投资的贸易效应研究[J].世界经济研究,2014(10).
[9]肖辉忠.金砖国家的起源、内部结构及向心力分析[J].俄罗斯东欧中亚研究,2017(4).
[10]张晓恒,周应恒.中国农产品出口增长的二元边际分析[J].农林经济管理学报,2015(2).
[11]Anderson J E,Van Wincoop E.Gravity with Gravitas:A Solution to the Border Puzzle[J].American Economic Review,2003(1).
[12]Anderson J E.A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation[J].American Economic Review,1979(1).
[13]Arellano M,Bond S.Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data:Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations[J].Review of Economic Studies,1991(2).
[14]Belcher K,Hobbs A L,Kerr W A.The WTO and Environmental Sustainability:Is There a Conflict?[J].International Journal of Environment&Sustainable Development,2003(1).
[15]Bellora C,Bourgeon J M.Agricultural Trade,Biodiversity Effects and Food Price Volatility[R].Working Papers,2015.
[16]Bergin P R,Lin C Y.Exchange Rate Regimes and the Extensive Margin of Trade[R].NBER Working Paper NO.14126,2008.
[17]Bergstrand J H.The Generalized Gravity Equation,Monopolistic Competition,and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,1989(1).
[18]Bergstrom J C,Randall A.Resource Economics:an Economic Approach to Natural Resource and Environmental Policy[M].Cheltenham:Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.,2016.
[19]Casta1eda J G.Not Ready for Prime Time:Why Including Emerging Powers at the Helm Would Hurt Global Governance[J].Foreign Affairs,2010(5).
[20]Bown C P,McCulloch R.Environmental Issues in the World Trade Organization[EB/OL].[2002-07].https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/afaf/765734241aff09f21b9672d22770e028498a.pdf.
[21]Costantini V,Mazzanti M.On the Green and Innovative Side of Trade Competitiveness The Impact of Environmental Policies and Innovation on EU Exports[J].Research Policy,2012(1).
[22]Dalin C,Rodrígueziturbe I.Environmental Impacts of Food Trade Via Resource Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions[J].Environmental Research Letters,2016(3).
[23]Deardoff A V.Determinants of Bilateral Trade:Does Gravity Work in a Classical World?[M]//Comparative Advantage,Growth,and the Gains From Trade and Globalization:a Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff,1995.
[24]European Commission.Negotiations for an Environmental Goods Agreement(EGA)G20Trade Ministers Meeting Statement[EB/OL].http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2016/july/tradoc_154803.pdf.
[25]Fischer C.Rebating Environmental Policy Revenues:Output-Based Allocations and Tradable Performance Standards[R].RFF Discussion Paper 01-22.Washington,DC:Resources for the Future,2001.
[26]Global Food Security Programme.Extreme Weather and Resilience of the Global Food System[EB/OL].http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/assets/pdfs/extreme-weatherresilience-of-global-food-system.pdf.
[27]Hummels D,Klenow P J.The Variety and Quality of a Nation’s Exports[J].American Economic Review,2005(3).
[28]Jacobs L M,Rossem R V.The BRIC Phantom:A Comparative Analysis of the BRICS as a Category of Rising Powers[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2014(S1).
[29]Kiviet J F,Phillips G D A,Schipp B.Alternative Bias Approximations in Firstorder Dynamic Reduced form Models[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics&Control,1999(7).
[30]Lapan H E,Sikdar S.Can Trade Be Good for the Environment?[J].Journal of Public Economic Theory,2016(2).
[31]Lawless M.Deconstructing Gravity:Trade Costs and Extensive and Intensive Margins[J].Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne Déconomique,2010(4).
[32]Leibenstein H,Tinbergen J.Shaping the World Economy:Suggestions for an International Economic Policy[J].Revueconomique,1962(123).
[33]Muradian R,Martinez-Alier J.Trade and the Environment:from a‘Southern’perspective[J].Ecological Economics,2001(2).
[34]Nadal A,Wise T A.The Environmental Costs of Agricultural Trade Liberalization:Mexico-U.S.Maize Under NAFTA Working Group on Environment and Development in the Americas March 29-30,2004[M].Elsevier,2004.
[35]Nickel C,Tudyka A.Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt:Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits[J].Journal of Money Credit&Banking,2014(7).
[36]Olsen J M F,Salazar-Xirinachs J M,Araya M.Trade and Environment at the World Trade Organization:The Need for a Constructive Dialogue[C].in GP Sampson(ed),The Role of the World Trade Organization in Global Governance,2001.
[37]Simon J.Evenett,Keller W.On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation[J].Journal of Political Economy,2002(2).
[38]Yoo I T,Kim I.Free Trade Agreements for the Environment?Regional Economic Integration and Environmental Cooperation in East Asia[J].International Environmental Agreements Politics Law&Economics,2016(5).
(1)世界银行全球贸易数据库,http://wits.worldbank.org/WITS/WITS/AdvanceQuery/RawTradeData/QueryDefinition.aspx?Page=RawTradeData,访问时间:2018年3月7日。
(1)HS编码即海关编码,为编码协调制度的简称。
(1)本文的种植业农产品包括HS编码第06章、第07章、第08章、第09章、第10章、第11章、第12章、第13章、第14章、第18章、第19章、第20章、第24章以及第52、53章部分。
(2)中华人民共和国国家统计局,2011-2017年《中国统计年鉴》,http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/,访问时间:2018年3月7日。
(3)世界银行的世界发展指标(WDI)数据库,http://databank.shihang.org/data/reports.aspx?source=%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E6%8C%87%E6%A0%87&preview=on,访问时间:2018年3月7日。
(1)CEPII-BACI数据库是由法国国际经济研究所CEPII提供的HS6分位产品层面的全球贸易数据库,包括世界各国双边贸易商品的价值量、数量和单位价。
(1)目前WTO成员中有100个国家与中国开展种植业农产品进口贸易,故本文针对这100个国家展开实证分析。
(1)根据2001-2016年间中国种植业农产品出口额排名,本文选择德国、日本、韩国和美国作为传统发达国家出口市场;选择印度尼西亚、马来西亚、泰国和越南作为东盟四国的出口市场。
(1)本文的种植业出口产品的蔬菜水果类为HS编码第07章、第08章和第20章;谷物类为HS编码第10章和第19章。
[2]林冰,刘方.环境成本内在化与中国出口贸易关系的实证研究[J].山东理工大学学报(社会科学版),2011(1).
[3]林跃勤.合作机制理论与完善金砖国家合作机制研究[J].亚太经济,2017(3).
[4]刘乐,李登旺,仇焕广.中国与金砖国家的农产品贸易:波动特征、影响因素及发展对策——基于引力模型的实证分析[J].人文杂志,2016(1).
[5]马进.中国农产品贸易与农业环境的双向影响机制研究[J].山东社会科学,2017(8).
[6]钱涛,冯中朝,李谷成.中国农产品出口增长的主导因素:集约边际还是扩展边际[J].现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2016(7).
[7]史本叶,张永亮.中国对外贸易成本分解与出口增长的二元边际[J].财经研究,2014(1).
[8]王胜,田涛,谢润德.中国对外直接投资的贸易效应研究[J].世界经济研究,2014(10).
[9]肖辉忠.金砖国家的起源、内部结构及向心力分析[J].俄罗斯东欧中亚研究,2017(4).
[10]张晓恒,周应恒.中国农产品出口增长的二元边际分析[J].农林经济管理学报,2015(2).
[11]Anderson J E,Van Wincoop E.Gravity with Gravitas:A Solution to the Border Puzzle[J].American Economic Review,2003(1).
[12]Anderson J E.A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation[J].American Economic Review,1979(1).
[13]Arellano M,Bond S.Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data:Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations[J].Review of Economic Studies,1991(2).
[14]Belcher K,Hobbs A L,Kerr W A.The WTO and Environmental Sustainability:Is There a Conflict?[J].International Journal of Environment&Sustainable Development,2003(1).
[15]Bellora C,Bourgeon J M.Agricultural Trade,Biodiversity Effects and Food Price Volatility[R].Working Papers,2015.
[16]Bergin P R,Lin C Y.Exchange Rate Regimes and the Extensive Margin of Trade[R].NBER Working Paper NO.14126,2008.
[17]Bergstrand J H.The Generalized Gravity Equation,Monopolistic Competition,and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,1989(1).
[18]Bergstrom J C,Randall A.Resource Economics:an Economic Approach to Natural Resource and Environmental Policy[M].Cheltenham:Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.,2016.
[19]Casta1eda J G.Not Ready for Prime Time:Why Including Emerging Powers at the Helm Would Hurt Global Governance[J].Foreign Affairs,2010(5).
[20]Bown C P,McCulloch R.Environmental Issues in the World Trade Organization[EB/OL].[2002-07].https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/afaf/765734241aff09f21b9672d22770e028498a.pdf.
[21]Costantini V,Mazzanti M.On the Green and Innovative Side of Trade Competitiveness The Impact of Environmental Policies and Innovation on EU Exports[J].Research Policy,2012(1).
[22]Dalin C,Rodrígueziturbe I.Environmental Impacts of Food Trade Via Resource Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions[J].Environmental Research Letters,2016(3).
[23]Deardoff A V.Determinants of Bilateral Trade:Does Gravity Work in a Classical World?[M]//Comparative Advantage,Growth,and the Gains From Trade and Globalization:a Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff,1995.
[24]European Commission.Negotiations for an Environmental Goods Agreement(EGA)G20Trade Ministers Meeting Statement[EB/OL].http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2016/july/tradoc_154803.pdf.
[25]Fischer C.Rebating Environmental Policy Revenues:Output-Based Allocations and Tradable Performance Standards[R].RFF Discussion Paper 01-22.Washington,DC:Resources for the Future,2001.
[26]Global Food Security Programme.Extreme Weather and Resilience of the Global Food System[EB/OL].http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/assets/pdfs/extreme-weatherresilience-of-global-food-system.pdf.
[27]Hummels D,Klenow P J.The Variety and Quality of a Nation’s Exports[J].American Economic Review,2005(3).
[28]Jacobs L M,Rossem R V.The BRIC Phantom:A Comparative Analysis of the BRICS as a Category of Rising Powers[J].Journal of Policy Modeling,2014(S1).
[29]Kiviet J F,Phillips G D A,Schipp B.Alternative Bias Approximations in Firstorder Dynamic Reduced form Models[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics&Control,1999(7).
[30]Lapan H E,Sikdar S.Can Trade Be Good for the Environment?[J].Journal of Public Economic Theory,2016(2).
[31]Lawless M.Deconstructing Gravity:Trade Costs and Extensive and Intensive Margins[J].Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne Déconomique,2010(4).
[32]Leibenstein H,Tinbergen J.Shaping the World Economy:Suggestions for an International Economic Policy[J].Revueconomique,1962(123).
[33]Muradian R,Martinez-Alier J.Trade and the Environment:from a‘Southern’perspective[J].Ecological Economics,2001(2).
[34]Nadal A,Wise T A.The Environmental Costs of Agricultural Trade Liberalization:Mexico-U.S.Maize Under NAFTA Working Group on Environment and Development in the Americas March 29-30,2004[M].Elsevier,2004.
[35]Nickel C,Tudyka A.Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt:Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits[J].Journal of Money Credit&Banking,2014(7).
[36]Olsen J M F,Salazar-Xirinachs J M,Araya M.Trade and Environment at the World Trade Organization:The Need for a Constructive Dialogue[C].in GP Sampson(ed),The Role of the World Trade Organization in Global Governance,2001.
[37]Simon J.Evenett,Keller W.On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation[J].Journal of Political Economy,2002(2).
[38]Yoo I T,Kim I.Free Trade Agreements for the Environment?Regional Economic Integration and Environmental Cooperation in East Asia[J].International Environmental Agreements Politics Law&Economics,2016(5).
(1)世界银行全球贸易数据库,http://wits.worldbank.org/WITS/WITS/AdvanceQuery/RawTradeData/QueryDefinition.aspx?Page=RawTradeData,访问时间:2018年3月7日。
(1)HS编码即海关编码,为编码协调制度的简称。
(1)本文的种植业农产品包括HS编码第06章、第07章、第08章、第09章、第10章、第11章、第12章、第13章、第14章、第18章、第19章、第20章、第24章以及第52、53章部分。
(2)中华人民共和国国家统计局,2011-2017年《中国统计年鉴》,http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/,访问时间:2018年3月7日。
(3)世界银行的世界发展指标(WDI)数据库,http://databank.shihang.org/data/reports.aspx?source=%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%E6%8C%87%E6%A0%87&preview=on,访问时间:2018年3月7日。
(1)CEPII-BACI数据库是由法国国际经济研究所CEPII提供的HS6分位产品层面的全球贸易数据库,包括世界各国双边贸易商品的价值量、数量和单位价。
(1)目前WTO成员中有100个国家与中国开展种植业农产品进口贸易,故本文针对这100个国家展开实证分析。
(1)根据2001-2016年间中国种植业农产品出口额排名,本文选择德国、日本、韩国和美国作为传统发达国家出口市场;选择印度尼西亚、马来西亚、泰国和越南作为东盟四国的出口市场。
(1)本文的种植业出口产品的蔬菜水果类为HS编码第07章、第08章和第20章;谷物类为HS编码第10章和第19章。