气象指数保险是合适的农业风险管理工具吗?
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摘要
气象指数保险在某种程度上可以克服传统农业保险的缺陷,但是,针对当前农业生产经营情况,中国是否适合实行气象指数保险,这是一个需要探讨的问题。本文运用2004～2016年全国农户面板数据,分别测算了小麦、玉米、稻谷和大豆等4种农作物的产量风险和县域农作物受灾系统性风险。研究发现:在中国,由于农作物气象灾害风险不满足"小概率、大损失"的基本可保条件以及针对受灾系统性风险的可保条件,气象指数保险的风险管理作用将十分有限,不宜作为农业风险管理工具。但是,借鉴气象指数保险的理赔方式,实行气象指数储蓄保险可以发挥农业保险的收入支持功能。
Weather index insurance can to a certain extent overcome the drawbacks of conventional agricultural insurance, so in recent years it becomes popular in China. So far very few studies can be found on the applicability of weather index insurance to China. This article discusses this question within the context of the current agricultural production and operation situation.Based on the panel data of farmers in China from 2004 to 2016, the study calculates the yield risk of wheat, maize, rice and soybean and the systematic risk of disaster to county crops. The result shows that weather index insurance can play a very limited role in risk management, since the risk of crop meteorological disasters neither satisfies the basic insurable conditions of"small probability and large loss", nor the insurable conditions for the systematic risk of disasters. So weather index insurance cannot work as an appropriate agricultural risk management tool. However, China can use the compensation method of weather index insurance to reduce the "leakage" of financial funds. Finally, it puts forward that the implementation of "Weather Index Savings Insurance" can give full play to support the income of households.
Weather index insurance can to a certain extent overcome the drawbacks of conventional agricultural insurance, so in recent years it becomes popular in China. So far very few studies can be found on the applicability of weather index insurance to China. This article discusses this question within the context of the current agricultural production and operation situation.Based on the panel data of farmers in China from 2004 to 2016, the study calculates the yield risk of wheat, maize, rice and soybean and the systematic risk of disaster to county crops. The result shows that weather index insurance can play a very limited role in risk management, since the risk of crop meteorological disasters neither satisfies the basic insurable conditions of"small probability and large loss", nor the insurable conditions for the systematic risk of disasters. So weather index insurance cannot work as an appropriate agricultural risk management tool. However, China can use the compensation method of weather index insurance to reduce the "leakage" of financial funds. Finally, it puts forward that the implementation of "Weather Index Savings Insurance" can give full play to support the income of households.
引文
1.郭颂平、赵春梅、高鹏,2014:《保险学》,北京:高等教育出版社。
2.吕开宇、张崇尚、邢鹂,2014:《农业指数保险的发展现状与未来》,《江西财经大学学报》第2期。
3.刘新立、叶涛、方伟华,2017:《海南省橡胶树风灾指数保险指数指标设计研究》,《保险研究》第6期。
4.牛浩、陈盛伟,2015:《玉米风雨倒伏指数保险产品设计研究--以山东省宁阳县为例》,《农业技术经济》第12期。
5.宋博、穆月英、侯玲玲、赵亮、陈阜、左飞龙,2014:《基于CVM的中国农业气象指数保险支付意愿分析--以浙江柑橘种植户为例》,《保险研究》第2期。
6.庹国柱、李军,2005:《农业保险》,北京:中国人民大学出版社。
7.庹国柱、李军,2003:《我国农业保险实验的成就、矛盾与出路》,《金融研究》第9期。
8.王韧、邓超、谭留芳,2015:《基于湖南省14地市面板数据的水稻气象指数保险设计》,《求索》第1期。
9.邢鹂、钟甫宁,2006:《粮食生产与风险区划研究》,《农业技术经济》第1期。
10.张玉环,2017:《国外农业天气指数保险探索》,《中国农村经济》第12期。
11.钟甫宁,2016:《从供给侧推动农业保险创新》,《人民日报》6月24日第7版。
12.中国赴美农业保险考察团,2002:《美国农业保险考察报告》,《中国农村经济》第1期。
13.Antón,J.,A.Cattaneo,S.Kimura,and J.Lankoski,2013,“Agricultural Risk Management Policies under Climate Uncertainty”,Global Environmental Change,23(6):1726-1736.
14.Barnett,B.J.,and O.Mahul,2007,“Weather Index Insurance for Agriculture and Rural Areas in Lower-income 15Countries”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,89(5):1241-1247.
15.Cai,J.,2016,“The Impact of Insurance Provision on Household Production and Financial Decisions”,American Economic Journal:Economic Policy,8(2):44-88.
16.Carter,M.R.,A.De Janvry,E.Sadoulet,and A.Sarris,2014,“Index-based Weather Insurance for Developing Countries:A Review of Evidence and A Set of Propositions for Up-scaling”,FERDI Working Paper 112,https://ideas.repec.org/p/fdi/wpaper/1799.html.
17.Chantarat,S.,C.B.Barrett,A.G.Mude,and C.G.Turvey,2007,“Using Weather Index Insurance to Improve Drought Response for Famine Prevention”.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,89(5):1262-1268.
18.Clarke,D.J.,2016,“A Theory of Rational Demand for Index Insurance”,American Economic Journal:Microeconomics,8(1):283-306.
19.Clarke,D.J.,O.Mahul,and N.Verma,2012,Index Based Crop Insurance Product Design and Ratemaking:The Case of Modified NAIS in India,Washington D.C.:The World Bank Press.
20.Cole,S.,X.Giné,J.Tobacman,P.Topalova,R.Townsend,and J.Vickery,2013,“Barriers to Household Risk Management:Evidence from India”,American Economic Journal:Applied Economics,5(1):104-35.
21.Cole,S.,D.Stein,and J.Tobacman,2014,“Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance:Evidence from a Long-run Field Experiment”,The American Economic Review,104(5):284-290.
22.De Janvry,A.,V.Dequiedt,and E.Sadoulet,2014,“The Demand for Insurance Against Common Shocks”,Journal of Development Economics,106:227-238.
23.Elabed,G.,M.F.Bellemare,M.R.Carter,and C.Guirkinger,2013,“Managing Basis Risk with Multiscale Index Insurance”,Agricultural Economics,44:419-431.
24.Fuchs,A.,and H.Wolff,2011,“Concept and Unintended Consequences of Weather Index Insurance:The Case of Mexico”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,93(2):505-511.
25.Giné,X.,R.Townsend,and J.Vickery,2007,“Statistical Analysis of Rainfall Insurance Payouts in Southern India”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,89(5):1248-1254.
26.Heimfarth,L.,and O.Musshoff,2011,“Weather Index-based Insurances for Farmers in the North China Plain:An Analysis of Risk Reduction Potential and Basis Risk”,Agricultural Finance Review,71(2):218-239.
27.Hill,R.V.,J.Hoddinott,and Kumar N.,2013,“Adoption of Weather-index Insurance:Learning from Willingness to Pay among A Panel of Households in Rural Ethiopia”,Agricultural Economics,44:385-398.
28.Huo,R.,and R.Octavio,2017,“Basis risk and welfare effect of weather index insurance for smallholders in China”,Working Paper,https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/saea17/252816.html.
29.Jensen,N.D.,C.B.Barrett,and A.G.Mude,2016,“Index Insurance Quality and Basis Risk:Evidence from Northern Kenya”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,98(5):1450-1469.
30.Leblois,A.,P.Quirion,and B.Sultan,2014,“Price vs.Weather Shock Hedging for Cash Crops:Ex Ante Evaluation for Cotton Producers in Cameroon,”Ecological Economics,101:67-80.
31.Liu,X.,Y.Tang,J.Ge,and M.J.Miranda,2019,“Does Experience with Natural Disasters Affect Willingness-to-Pay for Weather Index Insurance?Evidence from China”,International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,33:33-43.
32.Mahul,O.,and C.J.Stutley,2010,“Government Support to Agricultural Insurance:Challenges and Options for Developing Countries”,World Bank Publications,160-162.
33.Miranda,M.J.,and K.Farrin,2012,“Index Insurance for Developing Countries”,Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy,34(3):391-427.
34.Mobarak,A.M.,and M.R.Rosenzweig,2012,“Selling Formal Insurance to the Informally Insured”.Yale University Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper 1007,https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/59144/1/715687328.pdf.
35.Mobarak,A.M.,and M.R.Rosenzweig,2013,“Informal Risk Sharing,Index Insurance,and Risk Taking in Developing Countries”,The American Economic Review,103(3):375-380.
36.OECD,2009,Managing Risk in Agriculture:A Holistic Approach,Paris:OECD Publishing.
37.OECD,2011,Managing Risk in Agriculture:Policy Assessment and Design,Paris:OECD Publishing.
38.Sarris,A.,P.Karfakis,and L.Christiaensen,2006,“Producer Demand and Welfare Benefits of Rainfall Insurance in Tanzania”,FAO Commodities and Trade Policy Research Working Paper 18,http://www.fao.org/3/a-ah467e.pdf.
39.Sarris,A.,2013,“Weather Index Insurance for Agricultural Development:Introduction and Overview”,Agricultural Economics,44(4-5):381-384.
40.Skees,J.R.,2008,“Challenges for Use of Index Based Weather Insurance in Lower Income Countries”,Agricultural Finance Review,68(1):197-217.
41.Skees,J.R.,and B.J.Barnett,2006,“Enhancing Microfinance Using Index-based Risk-transfer Products”,Agricultural Finance Review,66(2):235-250.
42.Surminski,S.,L.Bouwer,and M.J.Linnerooth-Bayer,2016,“How Insurance Can Support Climate Resilience”,Nature Climate Chang,6:333-334.
43.Taib,C.M.I.C.,and F.E.Benth,2012,“Pricing of Temperature Index Insurance”,Review of Development Finance,2(1):22-31.
44.Turvey,C.,and R.Kong,2010,“Farmers'Willingness to Purchase weather insurance in rural China”,SSRN Working Paper 1601625,https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1601625.
(1)资料来源:国家统计局农村社会经济调查司,2007~2016年历年《中国农村统计年鉴》,北京:中国统计出版社。
(2)本文主要探讨政策性农业保险,2004年之前在中国实行的商业性农业保险不在本文探讨范围内。
(1)通常情况下,国家会对农业保险进行补贴以提高农户参与率,即农业保险并非在纯粹的市场条件下运行,但是,任何类型的保险运行均需满足基本可保条件,尤其是“小概率大损失”条件;此外,目前中国气象指数保险是在市场条件下运行的,没有相应补贴。
(2)保险主要对农作物受灾后的产量损失风险进行保障,因此,本文对农作物增产的统一性不做探讨。《中国统计年鉴》中将减产10%及以上定义为受灾,本文测算的农作物受灾系统性风险是指一定区域内农作物减产10%及以上各损失率门槛的系统性风险。
(1)本文可获取的最新数据是2016年的数据,选取2004年作为数据起始年份有两个原因,一是中国从2004年开始实行政策性农业保险,二是农业农村部农业研究中心全国农村固定观察点的调查问卷在2004年有较大调整,2004年及此后的统计指标与2004年之前相比有较大差别。
(1)资料来源:国家统计局(编),2017:《中国统计年鉴2017》,北京:中国统计出版社。
(1)目前在中国,同一省内实行的农业保险条款与补贴政策基本一致。鉴于此,本文将分省对4种农作物的平均县域农作物受灾系统性风险进行测算。
(1)这是世贸组织协议中规定的绿色保险补贴的必要条件。
(2)数据来源:根据全国农村固定观察点调查数据计算得到。
(3)数据来源:根据中国各省(区、市)农业保险条款中规定的保险金额计算得到。
2.吕开宇、张崇尚、邢鹂,2014:《农业指数保险的发展现状与未来》,《江西财经大学学报》第2期。
3.刘新立、叶涛、方伟华,2017:《海南省橡胶树风灾指数保险指数指标设计研究》,《保险研究》第6期。
4.牛浩、陈盛伟,2015:《玉米风雨倒伏指数保险产品设计研究--以山东省宁阳县为例》,《农业技术经济》第12期。
5.宋博、穆月英、侯玲玲、赵亮、陈阜、左飞龙,2014:《基于CVM的中国农业气象指数保险支付意愿分析--以浙江柑橘种植户为例》,《保险研究》第2期。
6.庹国柱、李军,2005:《农业保险》,北京:中国人民大学出版社。
7.庹国柱、李军,2003:《我国农业保险实验的成就、矛盾与出路》,《金融研究》第9期。
8.王韧、邓超、谭留芳,2015:《基于湖南省14地市面板数据的水稻气象指数保险设计》,《求索》第1期。
9.邢鹂、钟甫宁,2006:《粮食生产与风险区划研究》,《农业技术经济》第1期。
10.张玉环,2017:《国外农业天气指数保险探索》,《中国农村经济》第12期。
11.钟甫宁,2016:《从供给侧推动农业保险创新》,《人民日报》6月24日第7版。
12.中国赴美农业保险考察团,2002:《美国农业保险考察报告》,《中国农村经济》第1期。
13.Antón,J.,A.Cattaneo,S.Kimura,and J.Lankoski,2013,“Agricultural Risk Management Policies under Climate Uncertainty”,Global Environmental Change,23(6):1726-1736.
14.Barnett,B.J.,and O.Mahul,2007,“Weather Index Insurance for Agriculture and Rural Areas in Lower-income 15Countries”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,89(5):1241-1247.
15.Cai,J.,2016,“The Impact of Insurance Provision on Household Production and Financial Decisions”,American Economic Journal:Economic Policy,8(2):44-88.
16.Carter,M.R.,A.De Janvry,E.Sadoulet,and A.Sarris,2014,“Index-based Weather Insurance for Developing Countries:A Review of Evidence and A Set of Propositions for Up-scaling”,FERDI Working Paper 112,https://ideas.repec.org/p/fdi/wpaper/1799.html.
17.Chantarat,S.,C.B.Barrett,A.G.Mude,and C.G.Turvey,2007,“Using Weather Index Insurance to Improve Drought Response for Famine Prevention”.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,89(5):1262-1268.
18.Clarke,D.J.,2016,“A Theory of Rational Demand for Index Insurance”,American Economic Journal:Microeconomics,8(1):283-306.
19.Clarke,D.J.,O.Mahul,and N.Verma,2012,Index Based Crop Insurance Product Design and Ratemaking:The Case of Modified NAIS in India,Washington D.C.:The World Bank Press.
20.Cole,S.,X.Giné,J.Tobacman,P.Topalova,R.Townsend,and J.Vickery,2013,“Barriers to Household Risk Management:Evidence from India”,American Economic Journal:Applied Economics,5(1):104-35.
21.Cole,S.,D.Stein,and J.Tobacman,2014,“Dynamics of Demand for Index Insurance:Evidence from a Long-run Field Experiment”,The American Economic Review,104(5):284-290.
22.De Janvry,A.,V.Dequiedt,and E.Sadoulet,2014,“The Demand for Insurance Against Common Shocks”,Journal of Development Economics,106:227-238.
23.Elabed,G.,M.F.Bellemare,M.R.Carter,and C.Guirkinger,2013,“Managing Basis Risk with Multiscale Index Insurance”,Agricultural Economics,44:419-431.
24.Fuchs,A.,and H.Wolff,2011,“Concept and Unintended Consequences of Weather Index Insurance:The Case of Mexico”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,93(2):505-511.
25.Giné,X.,R.Townsend,and J.Vickery,2007,“Statistical Analysis of Rainfall Insurance Payouts in Southern India”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,89(5):1248-1254.
26.Heimfarth,L.,and O.Musshoff,2011,“Weather Index-based Insurances for Farmers in the North China Plain:An Analysis of Risk Reduction Potential and Basis Risk”,Agricultural Finance Review,71(2):218-239.
27.Hill,R.V.,J.Hoddinott,and Kumar N.,2013,“Adoption of Weather-index Insurance:Learning from Willingness to Pay among A Panel of Households in Rural Ethiopia”,Agricultural Economics,44:385-398.
28.Huo,R.,and R.Octavio,2017,“Basis risk and welfare effect of weather index insurance for smallholders in China”,Working Paper,https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/saea17/252816.html.
29.Jensen,N.D.,C.B.Barrett,and A.G.Mude,2016,“Index Insurance Quality and Basis Risk:Evidence from Northern Kenya”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,98(5):1450-1469.
30.Leblois,A.,P.Quirion,and B.Sultan,2014,“Price vs.Weather Shock Hedging for Cash Crops:Ex Ante Evaluation for Cotton Producers in Cameroon,”Ecological Economics,101:67-80.
31.Liu,X.,Y.Tang,J.Ge,and M.J.Miranda,2019,“Does Experience with Natural Disasters Affect Willingness-to-Pay for Weather Index Insurance?Evidence from China”,International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,33:33-43.
32.Mahul,O.,and C.J.Stutley,2010,“Government Support to Agricultural Insurance:Challenges and Options for Developing Countries”,World Bank Publications,160-162.
33.Miranda,M.J.,and K.Farrin,2012,“Index Insurance for Developing Countries”,Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy,34(3):391-427.
34.Mobarak,A.M.,and M.R.Rosenzweig,2012,“Selling Formal Insurance to the Informally Insured”.Yale University Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper 1007,https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/59144/1/715687328.pdf.
35.Mobarak,A.M.,and M.R.Rosenzweig,2013,“Informal Risk Sharing,Index Insurance,and Risk Taking in Developing Countries”,The American Economic Review,103(3):375-380.
36.OECD,2009,Managing Risk in Agriculture:A Holistic Approach,Paris:OECD Publishing.
37.OECD,2011,Managing Risk in Agriculture:Policy Assessment and Design,Paris:OECD Publishing.
38.Sarris,A.,P.Karfakis,and L.Christiaensen,2006,“Producer Demand and Welfare Benefits of Rainfall Insurance in Tanzania”,FAO Commodities and Trade Policy Research Working Paper 18,http://www.fao.org/3/a-ah467e.pdf.
39.Sarris,A.,2013,“Weather Index Insurance for Agricultural Development:Introduction and Overview”,Agricultural Economics,44(4-5):381-384.
40.Skees,J.R.,2008,“Challenges for Use of Index Based Weather Insurance in Lower Income Countries”,Agricultural Finance Review,68(1):197-217.
41.Skees,J.R.,and B.J.Barnett,2006,“Enhancing Microfinance Using Index-based Risk-transfer Products”,Agricultural Finance Review,66(2):235-250.
42.Surminski,S.,L.Bouwer,and M.J.Linnerooth-Bayer,2016,“How Insurance Can Support Climate Resilience”,Nature Climate Chang,6:333-334.
43.Taib,C.M.I.C.,and F.E.Benth,2012,“Pricing of Temperature Index Insurance”,Review of Development Finance,2(1):22-31.
44.Turvey,C.,and R.Kong,2010,“Farmers'Willingness to Purchase weather insurance in rural China”,SSRN Working Paper 1601625,https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1601625.
(1)资料来源:国家统计局农村社会经济调查司,2007~2016年历年《中国农村统计年鉴》,北京:中国统计出版社。
(2)本文主要探讨政策性农业保险,2004年之前在中国实行的商业性农业保险不在本文探讨范围内。
(1)通常情况下,国家会对农业保险进行补贴以提高农户参与率,即农业保险并非在纯粹的市场条件下运行,但是,任何类型的保险运行均需满足基本可保条件,尤其是“小概率大损失”条件;此外,目前中国气象指数保险是在市场条件下运行的,没有相应补贴。
(2)保险主要对农作物受灾后的产量损失风险进行保障,因此,本文对农作物增产的统一性不做探讨。《中国统计年鉴》中将减产10%及以上定义为受灾,本文测算的农作物受灾系统性风险是指一定区域内农作物减产10%及以上各损失率门槛的系统性风险。
(1)本文可获取的最新数据是2016年的数据,选取2004年作为数据起始年份有两个原因,一是中国从2004年开始实行政策性农业保险,二是农业农村部农业研究中心全国农村固定观察点的调查问卷在2004年有较大调整,2004年及此后的统计指标与2004年之前相比有较大差别。
(1)资料来源:国家统计局(编),2017:《中国统计年鉴2017》,北京:中国统计出版社。
(1)目前在中国,同一省内实行的农业保险条款与补贴政策基本一致。鉴于此,本文将分省对4种农作物的平均县域农作物受灾系统性风险进行测算。
(1)这是世贸组织协议中规定的绿色保险补贴的必要条件。
(2)数据来源:根据全国农村固定观察点调查数据计算得到。
(3)数据来源:根据中国各省(区、市)农业保险条款中规定的保险金额计算得到。