中国化石能源补贴区域分布及改革影响效应研究
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摘要
从区域分布视角出发,采用价差法估算了中国2006～2015年化石能源补贴量。结果表明:能源补贴呈现东、中、西部地区依次递减的格局,分别为2.72万亿元、1.80万亿元和1.53万亿元;能源补贴存在较强的空间相关性,且呈现显著的"俱乐部"现象;取消能源补贴对于中国实现"十一五"期间节能减排目标具有重要意义,具体来说,可使全国能源强度下降幅度由19.10%提升为22.36%;取消能源补贴的东部地区节能减排效应最为明显,中部地区敏感程度相对较弱;同时,取消能源补贴会导致居民生活成本不同幅度上涨,其中中部地区居民面临最大的影响,尤其是农村居民受到的冲击更为显著;化石能源补贴改革进程中,政府需要加大对中部地区尤其是农村居民扶持力度,以抵消可能进一步拉大贫富差距的风险。
Fossil-fuel subsidies result in excessive and wasteful energy consumption through energy price distortions. Once the policy is not targeted, the injustice of regional distribution will be exacerbated. However, few literatures discuss the effects of fossil energy subsidies at the regional level. Since energy subsidy reform directly affects energy prices, it has an important impact on economic development and is likely to have a negative effect and expand regional economic development imbalance. Therefore, it is necessary to study the spatial distribution of China's regional energy subsidies and its relationship with regional energy conservation and emission reduction, in order to formulate regional energy conservation and emission reduction policies fairly and effectively. This article estimates the subsidy from 2006 to 2015 in China(Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are excluded), adopting the price-gap approach, and uses the interregional input-output model to measure the change of the living cost of residents in different regions under the background of canceling energy subsidy. The input-output analysis of this paper is based on the 2007 China Inter-regional Input-Output Table and merges the eastern region, the Beijing-Tianjin region, the northern coastal region, the eastern coastal region and the southern coastal region into the eastern region; the central region is the central region of this paper; the western region is formed by the combination of the southwest region and the northwest region. Results are as flows: 1) Spatial inequality is obvious for energy subsidies, which decrease gradually from the eastern region(2.72 trillion yuan), the middle region(1.80 trillion yuan), to the western region(1.53 trillion yuan). From the analysis of global and local Moran index I, there is a significant "club" distribution of provincial energy subsidies. 2) It has great significance for the achievement of national energy conservation target during the Eleventh Five-Year period, the average emission reduction rate of energy subsidies was 4.14% and the energy intensity would decrease by 22.36% rather than 19.10%. In the emission reduction rate on the eastern region >western region> the central region, while the energy-saving rate was on the western region> eastern region>the central region and removing energy subsidies contribute least to the energy conservation of the middle region. 3) The total cost of living in rural areas and urban residents rose 7.44% and 6.81%, the total cost of living in rural areas and urban residents rose 3.99% and 3.19%, the eastern part of the total cost of living in rural areas and urban residents were up 3.94% and 3.16%, respectively, among which the residents of the central region are facing the greatest impact, especially the rural residents. In the process of fossil energy subsidies reform, the government needs to consider regional energy saving and regional differences, priority in the eastern region and the western region to promote energy subsidies reform, and then gradually implemented to the central region, and to increase the central and western regions, especially rural residents, which support efforts to offset the risk of further widening the gap between rich and poor.
Fossil-fuel subsidies result in excessive and wasteful energy consumption through energy price distortions. Once the policy is not targeted, the injustice of regional distribution will be exacerbated. However, few literatures discuss the effects of fossil energy subsidies at the regional level. Since energy subsidy reform directly affects energy prices, it has an important impact on economic development and is likely to have a negative effect and expand regional economic development imbalance. Therefore, it is necessary to study the spatial distribution of China's regional energy subsidies and its relationship with regional energy conservation and emission reduction, in order to formulate regional energy conservation and emission reduction policies fairly and effectively. This article estimates the subsidy from 2006 to 2015 in China(Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are excluded), adopting the price-gap approach, and uses the interregional input-output model to measure the change of the living cost of residents in different regions under the background of canceling energy subsidy. The input-output analysis of this paper is based on the 2007 China Inter-regional Input-Output Table and merges the eastern region, the Beijing-Tianjin region, the northern coastal region, the eastern coastal region and the southern coastal region into the eastern region; the central region is the central region of this paper; the western region is formed by the combination of the southwest region and the northwest region. Results are as flows: 1) Spatial inequality is obvious for energy subsidies, which decrease gradually from the eastern region(2.72 trillion yuan), the middle region(1.80 trillion yuan), to the western region(1.53 trillion yuan). From the analysis of global and local Moran index I, there is a significant "club" distribution of provincial energy subsidies. 2) It has great significance for the achievement of national energy conservation target during the Eleventh Five-Year period, the average emission reduction rate of energy subsidies was 4.14% and the energy intensity would decrease by 22.36% rather than 19.10%. In the emission reduction rate on the eastern region >western region> the central region, while the energy-saving rate was on the western region> eastern region>the central region and removing energy subsidies contribute least to the energy conservation of the middle region. 3) The total cost of living in rural areas and urban residents rose 7.44% and 6.81%, the total cost of living in rural areas and urban residents rose 3.99% and 3.19%, the eastern part of the total cost of living in rural areas and urban residents were up 3.94% and 3.16%, respectively, among which the residents of the central region are facing the greatest impact, especially the rural residents. In the process of fossil energy subsidies reform, the government needs to consider regional energy saving and regional differences, priority in the eastern region and the western region to promote energy subsidies reform, and then gradually implemented to the central region, and to increase the central and western regions, especially rural residents, which support efforts to offset the risk of further widening the gap between rich and poor.
引文
[1]姚昕,蒋竺均,刘江华.改革化石能源补贴可以支持清洁能源发展[J].金融研究, 2011(3):184-197.[Yao Xin, Jiang Zhujun,Liu Jianghua. The reform of subsidies for fossil energy can support the development of clean energy. Finance Research, 2011(3):184-197.]
[2]龚利,田瑾,王裕明.我国能源补贴对能源结构的影响效应研究[J].华东经济管理, 2014, 28(4):50-53.[Gong Li, Tian Jin,Wang Yuming. Research on the effect of energy subsidy for energy structure in China. East China Economic Management,2014, 28(4):50-53.]
[3] Lin B, Ouyang X. A revisit of fossil-fuel subsidies in China:Challenges and opportunities for energy price reform[J]. Energy Conversion and Management. 2014, 82(6):124-134.
[4] Tezuka T, Okushima K, Sawa T. Carbon tax for subsidizing photovoltaic power generation systems and its effect on carbon dioxide emissions[J]. Applied Energy,2002, 72(3-4):677-688.
[5] Hutchinson E, Kennedy P W, Martinez C. Subsidies for the production of cleaner energy:When do they cause emissions to rise?[J]. The BE Journal of Economic Analysis&Policy,2010,10(1):1-9.
[6] Larsen B. World fossil fuel subsidies and global carbon emissions[M]. Washing, D C:World Bank Publications, 1992.
[7] Hong L, Liang D, Di W. Economic and environmental gains of China's fossil energy subsidies reform:A rebound effect case study with EIMO model[J]. Energy Policy,2013, 54(3):335-342.
[8] Li K, Lin B. How does administrative pricing affect energy consumption and CO2emissions in China?[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015, 42(2):952-962.
[9]庄贵阳.能源补贴政策及其改革——为减排提供经济激励[J].气候变化研究进展,2006, 2(2):78-81.[Zhuang Guiyang.The policy of energy subsidy and its reform:To provide economic incentives for emission reduction. Advances in Research on Climate Changes,2006, 2(2):78-81.]
[10]庄幸.促进可再生能源发展的国家行动和政策[J].环境经济,2006(4):35-36.[Zhuang Xing. State action and policy to promote the development of renewable energy. Environmental Economics,2006(4):35-36.]
[11]林伯强,蒋竺均,林静.有目标的电价补贴有助于能源公平和效率[J].金融研究, 2009(11):1-18.[Lin Boqiang, Jiang Zhujun, Lin Jing. The policy of electricity subsidies targeted will help achieve energy equity and efficiency. Finance Research,2009(11):1-18.]
[12]李虹.中国化石能源补贴与碳减排——衡量能源补贴规模的理论方法综述与实证分析[J].经济学动态,2011(3):92-96.[Li Hong. Fossil energy subsidies and carbon emission reduction in China:A review about the theory and method to measure the scale of energy subsidies as well as empirical analysis. Economic Perspectives,2011(3):92-96.]
[13]周勤,赵静,盛巧燕.中国能源补贴政策形成和出口产品竞争优势的关系研究[J].中国工业经济,2011(3):47-56.[Zhou Qin,Zhao Jing, Sheng Qiaoyan. Research on the relationship between the formation of China's energy subsidy policy and the competitive advantage of export products. China Industrial Economy,2011(3):47-56.]
[14]李景刚,臧俊梅,高艳梅,等.完善种粮补贴标准及其发放方式探讨——以广东省为例[J].地理与地理信息科学,2009(5):64-68.[Li Jinggang, Zang Junmei, Gao Yanmei et al. Perfecting grain subsidy standards and dispensing methods—A case study of Guangdong Province. Geography and Geoinformatics, 2009(5):64-68.]
[15]谢里,魏大超.中国电力价格交叉补贴政策的社会福利效应评估[J].经济地理,2017,37(8):37-45.[Xie Li, Wei Dachao.Evaluation of social welfare effects of cross-subsidy policies on electricity price in China. Economic Geography, 2017, 37(8):37-45.]
[16]王鹏飞, Robert Bao, Catherine Wong.加拿大地域间收入差异与国家财政补贴[J].地理研究,2011,30(7):1309-1318.[Wang Pengfei, Robert Bao, Catherine Wong. Regional differences in income and state financial subsidies in Canada. Geographical Research,2011,30(7):1309-1318.]
[17]马琼,刘文存,刘勤勤,等.新疆棉花生产的外部性价值评估——基于棉花补贴视角[J].经济地理,2013, 33(3):131-138.[Ma Qiong, Liu Wencun, Liu Qinqin et al. Evaluation of the external value of cotton production in Xinjiang—Based on the perspective of cotton subsidy. Economic Geography, 2013, 33(3):131-138.]
[18]李虹,谢明华.化石能源补贴改革对城镇居民生活影响的区域差异性研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(9):37-46.[Li Hong,Xie Minghua. The study of regional discrepancy of the impact caused by the reform of fossil energy subsidy on urban residents'life. China Industrial Economy,2010(9):37-46.]
[19] Corden W M. The calculation OP the cost OP protection[J].Economic Record,1957, 33(64):29-51.
[20] IEA. World energy outlook:Looking at energy subsidies:Getting the price right[R]. Paris:OECD:International Energy,1999.
[21]陈锡康,杨翠红.投入产出技术[M].北京:科学出版社, 2011.[Chen Xikang, Yang Cuihong. Input-output technique. Beijing:Science Press, 2011.]
[22]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴(2007~2016)[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2007-2016.[National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. China statistical yearbook(2007-2016). Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2007-2016.]
[23] IPCC. IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories[R]. Japan:IGES, 2006.
[24] Lin B, Jiang Z. Estimates of energy subsidies in China and impact of energy subsidy reform[J]. Energy Economics, 2011, 33(2):273-283.
[25]国家统计局能源司.中国能源统计年鉴(2007~2016)[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2007-2016.[Energy Department of the National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. China energy statistical yearbook(2006-2016). Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2007-2016.]
[26] Huang G, Ouyang X, Yao X. Dynamics of China's regional carbon emissions under gradient economic development mode[J].Ecological Indicators,2015, 51(4):197-204.
[27] Anselin L. Local indicators of spatial association—LISA[J].Geographical Analysis,1995, 27(2):93-115.
[28] Dissou Y, Siddiqui M S. Can carbon taxes be progressive?[J].Energy Economics,2014, 42:88-100.
[29] Rausch S, Metcalf G E, Reilly J M. Distributional impacts of carbon pricing:A general equilibrium approach with micro-data for households[J]. Energy Economics, 2011, 33:S20-S33.
[30]李坤,付伯颖.对环境税分配效应的思考[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2008(8):16-17.[Li Kun, Fu Boying. Reflections on the effect caused by the allocation of environmental tax. Inner Mongolia Science Technology and Economy,2008(8):16-17.]
[2]龚利,田瑾,王裕明.我国能源补贴对能源结构的影响效应研究[J].华东经济管理, 2014, 28(4):50-53.[Gong Li, Tian Jin,Wang Yuming. Research on the effect of energy subsidy for energy structure in China. East China Economic Management,2014, 28(4):50-53.]
[3] Lin B, Ouyang X. A revisit of fossil-fuel subsidies in China:Challenges and opportunities for energy price reform[J]. Energy Conversion and Management. 2014, 82(6):124-134.
[4] Tezuka T, Okushima K, Sawa T. Carbon tax for subsidizing photovoltaic power generation systems and its effect on carbon dioxide emissions[J]. Applied Energy,2002, 72(3-4):677-688.
[5] Hutchinson E, Kennedy P W, Martinez C. Subsidies for the production of cleaner energy:When do they cause emissions to rise?[J]. The BE Journal of Economic Analysis&Policy,2010,10(1):1-9.
[6] Larsen B. World fossil fuel subsidies and global carbon emissions[M]. Washing, D C:World Bank Publications, 1992.
[7] Hong L, Liang D, Di W. Economic and environmental gains of China's fossil energy subsidies reform:A rebound effect case study with EIMO model[J]. Energy Policy,2013, 54(3):335-342.
[8] Li K, Lin B. How does administrative pricing affect energy consumption and CO2emissions in China?[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015, 42(2):952-962.
[9]庄贵阳.能源补贴政策及其改革——为减排提供经济激励[J].气候变化研究进展,2006, 2(2):78-81.[Zhuang Guiyang.The policy of energy subsidy and its reform:To provide economic incentives for emission reduction. Advances in Research on Climate Changes,2006, 2(2):78-81.]
[10]庄幸.促进可再生能源发展的国家行动和政策[J].环境经济,2006(4):35-36.[Zhuang Xing. State action and policy to promote the development of renewable energy. Environmental Economics,2006(4):35-36.]
[11]林伯强,蒋竺均,林静.有目标的电价补贴有助于能源公平和效率[J].金融研究, 2009(11):1-18.[Lin Boqiang, Jiang Zhujun, Lin Jing. The policy of electricity subsidies targeted will help achieve energy equity and efficiency. Finance Research,2009(11):1-18.]
[12]李虹.中国化石能源补贴与碳减排——衡量能源补贴规模的理论方法综述与实证分析[J].经济学动态,2011(3):92-96.[Li Hong. Fossil energy subsidies and carbon emission reduction in China:A review about the theory and method to measure the scale of energy subsidies as well as empirical analysis. Economic Perspectives,2011(3):92-96.]
[13]周勤,赵静,盛巧燕.中国能源补贴政策形成和出口产品竞争优势的关系研究[J].中国工业经济,2011(3):47-56.[Zhou Qin,Zhao Jing, Sheng Qiaoyan. Research on the relationship between the formation of China's energy subsidy policy and the competitive advantage of export products. China Industrial Economy,2011(3):47-56.]
[14]李景刚,臧俊梅,高艳梅,等.完善种粮补贴标准及其发放方式探讨——以广东省为例[J].地理与地理信息科学,2009(5):64-68.[Li Jinggang, Zang Junmei, Gao Yanmei et al. Perfecting grain subsidy standards and dispensing methods—A case study of Guangdong Province. Geography and Geoinformatics, 2009(5):64-68.]
[15]谢里,魏大超.中国电力价格交叉补贴政策的社会福利效应评估[J].经济地理,2017,37(8):37-45.[Xie Li, Wei Dachao.Evaluation of social welfare effects of cross-subsidy policies on electricity price in China. Economic Geography, 2017, 37(8):37-45.]
[16]王鹏飞, Robert Bao, Catherine Wong.加拿大地域间收入差异与国家财政补贴[J].地理研究,2011,30(7):1309-1318.[Wang Pengfei, Robert Bao, Catherine Wong. Regional differences in income and state financial subsidies in Canada. Geographical Research,2011,30(7):1309-1318.]
[17]马琼,刘文存,刘勤勤,等.新疆棉花生产的外部性价值评估——基于棉花补贴视角[J].经济地理,2013, 33(3):131-138.[Ma Qiong, Liu Wencun, Liu Qinqin et al. Evaluation of the external value of cotton production in Xinjiang—Based on the perspective of cotton subsidy. Economic Geography, 2013, 33(3):131-138.]
[18]李虹,谢明华.化石能源补贴改革对城镇居民生活影响的区域差异性研究[J].中国工业经济,2010(9):37-46.[Li Hong,Xie Minghua. The study of regional discrepancy of the impact caused by the reform of fossil energy subsidy on urban residents'life. China Industrial Economy,2010(9):37-46.]
[19] Corden W M. The calculation OP the cost OP protection[J].Economic Record,1957, 33(64):29-51.
[20] IEA. World energy outlook:Looking at energy subsidies:Getting the price right[R]. Paris:OECD:International Energy,1999.
[21]陈锡康,杨翠红.投入产出技术[M].北京:科学出版社, 2011.[Chen Xikang, Yang Cuihong. Input-output technique. Beijing:Science Press, 2011.]
[22]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴(2007~2016)[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2007-2016.[National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. China statistical yearbook(2007-2016). Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2007-2016.]
[23] IPCC. IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories[R]. Japan:IGES, 2006.
[24] Lin B, Jiang Z. Estimates of energy subsidies in China and impact of energy subsidy reform[J]. Energy Economics, 2011, 33(2):273-283.
[25]国家统计局能源司.中国能源统计年鉴(2007~2016)[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2007-2016.[Energy Department of the National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. China energy statistical yearbook(2006-2016). Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2007-2016.]
[26] Huang G, Ouyang X, Yao X. Dynamics of China's regional carbon emissions under gradient economic development mode[J].Ecological Indicators,2015, 51(4):197-204.
[27] Anselin L. Local indicators of spatial association—LISA[J].Geographical Analysis,1995, 27(2):93-115.
[28] Dissou Y, Siddiqui M S. Can carbon taxes be progressive?[J].Energy Economics,2014, 42:88-100.
[29] Rausch S, Metcalf G E, Reilly J M. Distributional impacts of carbon pricing:A general equilibrium approach with micro-data for households[J]. Energy Economics, 2011, 33:S20-S33.
[30]李坤,付伯颖.对环境税分配效应的思考[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2008(8):16-17.[Li Kun, Fu Boying. Reflections on the effect caused by the allocation of environmental tax. Inner Mongolia Science Technology and Economy,2008(8):16-17.]