自然灾害区域疏散的预警优化模型研究
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摘要
在可预知的灾害来临前,交通堵塞问题是影响应急疏散效率的主要因素。在灾前防御阶段,有策略的发布预警消息可以使疏散更加有秩序的进行,从而提高疏散效率。本文为区域应急疏散预案构建了应急疏散预警发布研究框架,首先建立了避难点分配模型,将其结果代入到疏散预警模型,来优化特定地区预警发布时间和类型。其中,预警模型加入了时间成分,构建成了多时段模型,并使用贪婪的启发式搜索过程求解非线性的公式。最后,通过算例分析了模型算法的应用范围及其可行性,并用模拟退火算法进行了计算,验证了本算法的有效性。本研究更改以往在同一时间通过全部渠道发布消息的方式,通过疏散预警信息的发布策略的优化,可以有效避免在区域内大规模人群同时出发所导致的交通拥堵现象,为政府制定科学的应急疏散预案提供理论和技术支持。
The traffic congestion is the main factor affecting the efficiency of emergency evacuation before the strike of a foreseeable disaster. In the stage of disaster preparation,sending warnings judiciously could make evacuation orderly so as to help evacuation efficiency. This paper proposes a framework for emergency evacuation warning sending. We first develop a model for shelter assignment,and then use it to theevacuaion warning model,which optimizes the timing and type of warning sending in specific zone. There is a time component to the evacuation and we model it using a multi-period model and the development of an iterative greedy heuristic procedure for the non-linear formulation. Finally,some numerical examples are presented to show the applicability and feasibility,and calculated by using simulation annealing algorithm to demonstrate the effectiveness of this algorithm. This study proposes the approach can optimize the evacuation warning issuance strategy instead of sending messages from all sources at the same time. This approach helps to avoid traffic congestion caused by large-scale evacuation at the same time,and thus to provide theoretical and technological support for government to make scientific emergency evacuation planning.
The traffic congestion is the main factor affecting the efficiency of emergency evacuation before the strike of a foreseeable disaster. In the stage of disaster preparation,sending warnings judiciously could make evacuation orderly so as to help evacuation efficiency. This paper proposes a framework for emergency evacuation warning sending. We first develop a model for shelter assignment,and then use it to theevacuaion warning model,which optimizes the timing and type of warning sending in specific zone. There is a time component to the evacuation and we model it using a multi-period model and the development of an iterative greedy heuristic procedure for the non-linear formulation. Finally,some numerical examples are presented to show the applicability and feasibility,and calculated by using simulation annealing algorithm to demonstrate the effectiveness of this algorithm. This study proposes the approach can optimize the evacuation warning issuance strategy instead of sending messages from all sources at the same time. This approach helps to avoid traffic congestion caused by large-scale evacuation at the same time,and thus to provide theoretical and technological support for government to make scientific emergency evacuation planning.
引文
[1]王永明,周磊山,刘铁民.非常规突发事件中的区域路网疏散能力评估与交通组织方案设计[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,(8):1608-1616.
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[3] Lindell M K,Hwang S N. Households’perceived personal risk and responses in a multi hazard environment[J]. Risk Analysis,2008,28(2):539-556.
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[9] Gudishala R,Wilmot C. Comparison of time-dependent sequential logit and nested logit for modeling hurricane evacuation demand[J]. Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2012,2312(2312):134-140.
[10] Chen X. Agent-based modelling and simulation of urban evacuation:relative effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies[J]. Journal of the Operational Research Society,2008,59(3):25-33.
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[13]姚梦佳.公交车辆应急疏散集结点选址和路径规划模型[D].东南大学,2015.
[14]安实,崔娜,崔建勋.应急疏散条件下家庭集聚行为的仿真研究[J].华南理工大学学报(自然科学版),2010,(10):94-99.
[15] Lv Y,Duan Y,Kang W,et al. Traffic flow prediction with big data:a deep learning approach[J]. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2015,16(2):865-873.
[16]温新刚,徐寅峰,丁黎黎.基于预知信息的占线Nomadic TSP问题[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(11):2845-2851.
[17]赵晗萍,王方萍,陈洪姝,等.基于自主行车路线选择的车辆疏散仿真分析[C].风险分析和危机反应中的信息技术——中国灾害防御协会风险分析专业委员会年会,2014.
[18] Lv Y,Zhang X,Kang W,et al. Managing emergency traffic evacuation with a partially random destination allocation strategy:a computational-experiment-based optimization approach[J]. Intelligent Transportation Systems IEEE Transactions on,2015,16(4):2182-2191.
[19]代颖,马祖军,朱道立,等.震后应急物资配送的模糊动态定位—路径问题[J].管理科学学报,2012,15(7):60-70.
[20]俞武扬.基于时间满意度的应急物资中转运输模型[J].系统管理学报,2013,22(5):882-887.
[21]张尧.城市交通车流拥堵疏散路径优化识别研究[J].计算机仿真,2017,(2):200-203.
[22]邓云峰,盖文妹.基于动态网络流的区域疏散分析模型与仿真[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,(11):24-30.
[23]吴薇薇,宁宣熙.基于改善紧急疏散网络流通能力的仿真研究[J].中国管理科学,2006,(3):86-91.
[24]袁媛,汪定伟,蒋忠中,盛莹.考虑路线复杂度的应急疏散双目标路径选择模型[J].运筹与管理,2008,(5):73-79.
[25]王永明,刘铁民.非常规突发事件中面向目标能力的路网调整及车流组织模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,(5):993-1002.
[26]高明霞.基于双层规划的交通疏散中车辆出发与交通控制综合优化[J].中国管理科学,2014,(12):65-71.
[27]马军平,徐寅峰,张惠丽.紧急疏散中最优抗出错路径选择模型与算法[J].运筹与管理,2014,(6):1-6.
[28] Sorensen J H. Hazard warning systems:review of 20years of progress[J]. Natural Hazards Review,2000,1(2):119-125.
[29]张江华,刘治平,朱道立.多源点突发灾害事故应急疏散模型与算法[J].管理科学学报,2009,12(3):111-118.
[30] Kirkpatrick S,Jr G C,Vecchi M P. Optimization by simulated annealing[J]. Science,1983,220(4598):671.
[2] Murray-Tuite P,Wolshon B. Evacuation transportation modeling:an overview of research,development,and practice[J]. Transportation Research Part C Emerging Technologies,2013,27(2):25-45.
[3] Lindell M K,Hwang S N. Households’perceived personal risk and responses in a multi hazard environment[J]. Risk Analysis,2008,28(2):539-556.
[4] Huang S K,Lindell M K,Prater C S,et al.. Household evacuation decision making in response to hurricane ike[J]. Natural Hazards Review,2012,13(4):283-296.
[5] West D M,Orr M. Race,gender,and communications in natural disasters[J]. Policy Studies Journal,2007,35(4):569-586.
[6] Dow K,Cutter S L. Public orders and personal opinions:household strategies for hurricane risk assessment[J].Environmental Hazards,2000,2(4):143-155.
[7] Burnside R,Miller D S,Rivera J D. The impact of information and risk perception on the hurricane evacuation decision-making of greater new orleans residents[J].Sociological Spectrum,2007,27(6):727-740.
[8] Fu H Q,Wilmot C G. A sequential logit dynamic travel demand model for hurricane evacuation[J]. Transportation Research Record:Journal of the Transportation Research Board,2004,1882:19-26.
[9] Gudishala R,Wilmot C. Comparison of time-dependent sequential logit and nested logit for modeling hurricane evacuation demand[J]. Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2012,2312(2312):134-140.
[10] Chen X. Agent-based modelling and simulation of urban evacuation:relative effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies[J]. Journal of the Operational Research Society,2008,59(3):25-33.
[11] Lim M B,Lim H Jr,Piantanakulchai M. Factors of evacuation decision and its implication to transportation planning[J]. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation,2013,10:163-177.
[12] Swamy R.,Kang J E,Batta R,Chung Y. Hurricane evacuation planning using public transportation[J].Socioeconomic Planning Sciences,2016.
[13]姚梦佳.公交车辆应急疏散集结点选址和路径规划模型[D].东南大学,2015.
[14]安实,崔娜,崔建勋.应急疏散条件下家庭集聚行为的仿真研究[J].华南理工大学学报(自然科学版),2010,(10):94-99.
[15] Lv Y,Duan Y,Kang W,et al. Traffic flow prediction with big data:a deep learning approach[J]. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2015,16(2):865-873.
[16]温新刚,徐寅峰,丁黎黎.基于预知信息的占线Nomadic TSP问题[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(11):2845-2851.
[17]赵晗萍,王方萍,陈洪姝,等.基于自主行车路线选择的车辆疏散仿真分析[C].风险分析和危机反应中的信息技术——中国灾害防御协会风险分析专业委员会年会,2014.
[18] Lv Y,Zhang X,Kang W,et al. Managing emergency traffic evacuation with a partially random destination allocation strategy:a computational-experiment-based optimization approach[J]. Intelligent Transportation Systems IEEE Transactions on,2015,16(4):2182-2191.
[19]代颖,马祖军,朱道立,等.震后应急物资配送的模糊动态定位—路径问题[J].管理科学学报,2012,15(7):60-70.
[20]俞武扬.基于时间满意度的应急物资中转运输模型[J].系统管理学报,2013,22(5):882-887.
[21]张尧.城市交通车流拥堵疏散路径优化识别研究[J].计算机仿真,2017,(2):200-203.
[22]邓云峰,盖文妹.基于动态网络流的区域疏散分析模型与仿真[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,(11):24-30.
[23]吴薇薇,宁宣熙.基于改善紧急疏散网络流通能力的仿真研究[J].中国管理科学,2006,(3):86-91.
[24]袁媛,汪定伟,蒋忠中,盛莹.考虑路线复杂度的应急疏散双目标路径选择模型[J].运筹与管理,2008,(5):73-79.
[25]王永明,刘铁民.非常规突发事件中面向目标能力的路网调整及车流组织模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,(5):993-1002.
[26]高明霞.基于双层规划的交通疏散中车辆出发与交通控制综合优化[J].中国管理科学,2014,(12):65-71.
[27]马军平,徐寅峰,张惠丽.紧急疏散中最优抗出错路径选择模型与算法[J].运筹与管理,2014,(6):1-6.
[28] Sorensen J H. Hazard warning systems:review of 20years of progress[J]. Natural Hazards Review,2000,1(2):119-125.
[29]张江华,刘治平,朱道立.多源点突发灾害事故应急疏散模型与算法[J].管理科学学报,2009,12(3):111-118.
[30] Kirkpatrick S,Jr G C,Vecchi M P. Optimization by simulated annealing[J]. Science,1983,220(4598):671.