黄渤海海冰分布特征及其影响因子
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摘要
海冰是中国黄渤海冬季主要海洋灾害之一。为进一步认识黄渤海海冰分布特征和日变化机理,提高海冰短期预报水平,本文利用美国国家冰雪数据中心(NSIDC)MASIE海冰范围产品和欧洲中期天气预报中心(EC-MWF)ERA-interim再分析资料,统计了2018年冬季黄渤海海冰时空分布特征,并通过相关性分析,研究了日海冰面积与海洋气象因子的关系。结果表明:2018年冬季黄渤海海冰集中在辽东湾和朝鲜湾,海冰覆盖率随离岸距离的增加而降低;海冰变化经历了生成、维持和融化3个阶段,其中生成阶段明显长于融化阶段。39°N以北黄渤海日均海表温度(SST)、海面2 m气温(T_(2m))、海面2 m气温<-2℃积温(T_c)和海冰面积呈显著负相关关系,Pearson相关系数分别为-0.61(P<0.01)、-0.52(P<0.01)和-0.50(P<0.01)。因此,39°N以北黄渤海海气界面的热力环境是影响黄渤海海冰面积的重要因素。另外研究发现在2018年黄渤海海冰生成发展阶段,海冰面积共出现两次异常减少,这两次日海冰面积异常减少主要是由海区前一日升温和偏南风造成的。
Sea ice is a marine hazard in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea in winters.To reveal the spatial distribution and diurnal change characteristics of sea ice and improve the ability of sea ice short-term forecasting,the National Snow and Ice Data Center(NSIDC)Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent(MASIE)daily sea ice extent and the European Centre for medium-range weather forecasts(ECMWF)ERA-Interim data were used in this study for analysis.The spatial distribution characteristics of sea ice in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea in 2018 and the relationship between sea ice extent and meteorological factors were examined.The results show that the sea ice was concentrated in the Liaodong Bay and the Korea Bay north of 39°N.With the increase of distance from the coast,its coverage reduced distinctly.Sea ice changes underwent three stages development,stagnation,and melting,and the development stage was longer than the melting stage.Sea surface temperature(SST),air temperature at 2 m height(T_(2m)),and accumulated temperature(while air temperature at 2 m height was colder than -2℃)north of 39°N showed a significant negative correlation with sea ice extent,and the Pearson correlation coefficients were -0.61(P<0.01),-0.52(P<0.01),and -0.50(P<0.01),respectively.In addition,two abnormal decreasing processes of sea ice extent were found in the development stage over the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea,and both were mainly caused by the southerly wind and warming of the previous day.
Sea ice is a marine hazard in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea in winters.To reveal the spatial distribution and diurnal change characteristics of sea ice and improve the ability of sea ice short-term forecasting,the National Snow and Ice Data Center(NSIDC)Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent(MASIE)daily sea ice extent and the European Centre for medium-range weather forecasts(ECMWF)ERA-Interim data were used in this study for analysis.The spatial distribution characteristics of sea ice in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea in 2018 and the relationship between sea ice extent and meteorological factors were examined.The results show that the sea ice was concentrated in the Liaodong Bay and the Korea Bay north of 39°N.With the increase of distance from the coast,its coverage reduced distinctly.Sea ice changes underwent three stages development,stagnation,and melting,and the development stage was longer than the melting stage.Sea surface temperature(SST),air temperature at 2 m height(T_(2m)),and accumulated temperature(while air temperature at 2 m height was colder than -2℃)north of 39°N showed a significant negative correlation with sea ice extent,and the Pearson correlation coefficients were -0.61(P<0.01),-0.52(P<0.01),and -0.50(P<0.01),respectively.In addition,two abnormal decreasing processes of sea ice extent were found in the development stage over the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea,and both were mainly caused by the southerly wind and warming of the previous day.
引文
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[22]Su H,Wang Y,Yang J.Monitoring the spatiotemporal evolution of sea ice in the Bohai Sea in the 2009-2010 winter combining MO-DIS and meteorological data[J].Estuaries and Coasts,2012,35(1):281-291.
[23]Serreze M C,Stroeve J,Barrett A P,et al.Summer atmospheric circulation anomalies over the arctic ocean and their influences on September sea ice extent:A cautionary tale[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2016,121(19):11463-11485.
[24]孙湘平.中国近海区域海洋[M].北京:海洋出版社,2006.[Sun X P.China Offshore Oceanography[M].Beijing:China Ocean Press,2006.]
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[26]白珊,刘钦政,李海,等.渤海的海冰[J].海洋预报,1999,16(3):1-9.[Bai S,Liu Q Z,Li F,et al.Sea ice in the Bohai Sea of China[J].Marine Forecasts,1999,16(3):1-9.]
[2]Shokr M,Sinha N.Sea Ice:Physics and Remote Sensing[M].Hoboken:American Geophysical Union,2015.
[3]史培军,顾卫,王静爱,等.海冰资源淡化研究与利用技术开发[J].资源科学,2010,32(3):394-404.[Shi P J,Gu W,Wang J A,et al.Development of technology for sea ice desalination and utilization of sea ice resources[J].Resources Science,2010,32(3):394-404.]
[4]李澜涛,刘成玉,顾卫,等.渤海海冰淡化利用研究进展与问题[J].海洋通报,2012,31(1):105-112.[Li L T,Liu C Y,Gu W,et al.Research progress and problems in desalination and utilization of sea ice in Bohai Sea[J].Marine Science Bulletin,2012,31(1):105-112.]
[5]颜钰,徐粒,许映军等.基于MODIS的渤海海冰资源量估算[J].资源科学,2017,39(11):2166-2175.[Yan Y,Xu L,Xu Y J,et al.The estimate of sea ice resources in the Bohai Sea based on MODIS data[J].Resources Science,2017,39(11):2166-2175.]
[6]武浩,夏芸,许映军,等.2004年以来中国渤海海冰灾害时空特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(5):81-87.[Wu H,Xia Y,Xu Y J,et al.Analysis of spatiotemporal characteristics of sea ice disaster in the Bohai Sea since 2004[J].Journal of Natural Disaster,2016,25(5):81-87.]
[7]Gu W,Liu C Y,Yuan S,et al.Spatial distribution characteristics of sea ice hazard risk in Bohai,China[J].Annals of Glaciology,2013,54(62):73-79.
[8]王萌,武胜利,郑伟,等.长时间序列卫星遥感渤海海冰时空分布特征及与气温关系分析[J].气象,2016,42(10):1237-1244.[Wang M,Wu S L,Zheng W,et al.Temporal spatial distribution of Bohai Sea Sea ice in long time series and its correlation with air temperature[J].Meteorlogical Monthly,2016,42(10):1237-1244.]
[9]王相玉,张惠滋,严素,等.渤、黄海北部海冰年代时空变化特征分析[J].海洋预报,2007,24(2):26-32.[Wang X Y,Zhang HZ,Yan S,et al.The characteristic of the spatio-temporal transformation of the sea-ice in northern part of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea[J].Marine Forecasts,2007,24(2):26-32.]
[10]郑冬梅,王志斌,张书颖,等.渤海海冰的年际和年代际变化特征与机理[J].海洋学报,2015,37(6):12-20.[Zheng D M,Wang Z B,Zhang S Y,et al.Interannual and interdecadal variations of the sea ice in Bohai Sea and its mechanisms[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2015,37(6):12-20.]
[11]刘钦政,黄嘉佑,白珊,等.渤海冬季海冰气候变异的成因分析[J].海洋学报,2004,26(2):11-19.[Liu Q Z,Huang J Y,Bai S,et al.Studies on the causation of sea ice decadal variation in the Bohai Sea of China[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2004,26(2):11-19.]
[12]王相玉,袁本坤,商杰,等.渤黄海海冰灾害与防御对策[J].海岸工程,2011,30(4):46-55.[Wang X Y,Yuan B K,Shang J,et al.Disaster of sea ice and defense countermeasures in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea[J].Coastal Engineering,2011,30(4):46-55.]
[13]中国科学院海洋研究所.渤海地质[M].北京:科学出版社,1985.[Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences.Bohai Geology[M].Beijing:Science Press,1985.]
[14]许东禹,刘锡清,张训华,等.中国近海地质[M].北京:地质出版社,1997.[Xu D Y,Liu X Q,Zhang X H,et al.Chinese Offshore Geology[M].Beijing:Geological Press,1997.]
[15]National Snow and Ice Data Center.Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent-Northern Hemisphere(MASIE-NH)[EB/OL].(2018-03-28)[2018-04-30].FTP://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/.
[16]Fetterer F,Savoie M,Helfrich S,et al.Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent-Northern Hemisphere[R].Boulder:Digital Media,2010.
[17]Posey P G,Metzger E J,Wallcraft A J,et al.Improving Arctic sea ice edge forecasts by assimilating high horizontal resolution sea ice concentration data into the US navy’s ice forecast systems[J].The Cryosphere,2015,9(4):1735-1745.
[18]Meier W N,Fetterer F,Stewart S J,et al.How do sea-ice concentrations from operational data compare with passive microwave estimates?Implications for improved model evaluations and forecasting[J].Annals of Glaciology,2015,56(69):332-340.
[19]European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.Global Reanalysis ERA-interim,Daily[EB/OL].(2018-06-20)[2018-08-01].https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim-full-daily/levtype=sfc/.
[20]Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bulletin of the American Meteological Society,1996,77(3):437-471.
[21]顾卫,史培军,刘杨,等.渤海和黄海北部地区负积温资源的时空分布特征[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(2):168-173.[Gu W,Shi P J,Liu Y,et al.The characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of negative accumulated temperature in Bohai Sea and north Yellow Sea[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2002,17(2):168-173.]
[22]Su H,Wang Y,Yang J.Monitoring the spatiotemporal evolution of sea ice in the Bohai Sea in the 2009-2010 winter combining MO-DIS and meteorological data[J].Estuaries and Coasts,2012,35(1):281-291.
[23]Serreze M C,Stroeve J,Barrett A P,et al.Summer atmospheric circulation anomalies over the arctic ocean and their influences on September sea ice extent:A cautionary tale[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2016,121(19):11463-11485.
[24]孙湘平.中国近海区域海洋[M].北京:海洋出版社,2006.[Sun X P.China Offshore Oceanography[M].Beijing:China Ocean Press,2006.]
[25]Yan Y,Shao D D,Gu W,et al.Multidecadal Anomalies of Bohai Sea ice cover and potential climate driving factors during 1988-2015[J].Environmental Research Letters,2017,12(9):1-10.
[26]白珊,刘钦政,李海,等.渤海的海冰[J].海洋预报,1999,16(3):1-9.[Bai S,Liu Q Z,Li F,et al.Sea ice in the Bohai Sea of China[J].Marine Forecasts,1999,16(3):1-9.]