基于GISIS数据库的客滚船碰撞事故致因分析
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摘要
以国际海事组织(International Maritime Organization,IMO)全球综合航运信息系统(Global Integrated Shipping Information System,GISIS)数据库资料为基础,分析2003—2017年的海上船舶事故发生情况。针对欧盟提交给IMO的客滚船破损稳性参数综合安全评估项目(EMSA项目)报告中存在的前提假设合理性不足和没有事故致因分析等问题,提出改进分析方法。根据GISIS数据库中的事故数据报告,分析客滚船碰撞事故发生原因;以此为基本事件,采用故障树方法建立客滚船碰撞事故致因分析模型。通过计算最小割集和开展敏感性分析,衡量各危险事故场景对导致最终碰撞事故发生的重要度,得到危险事故场景序列并初步给出风险控制措施,为降低客滚船潜在的碰撞事故发生风险提供参考。
Marine accidents from 2003 to 2017 are analyzed based on the Global Integrated Shipping Information System(GISIS) of the International Maritime Organization(IMO), and an improved analysis method is proposed to solve the problems of lack of reasonable premise and lack of accident cause analysis for the report of formal safety assessment(EMSA project) submitted by the European Union to IMO concerning the Ropax damage stability. The causes for Ropax collision are analyzed according to the accident data report in the GISIS database, which is treated as the basic incident to establish a Ropax collision cause analysis model with the fault tree method. This study calculated the minimum cut set, carried out the sensitivity analysis, and measured the importance of various dangerous scenarios that may cause collision, then obtained the sequence of dangerous scenes and proposed the measures to control risk, which provides references for reducing the potential collision risk of Ropax ships.
Marine accidents from 2003 to 2017 are analyzed based on the Global Integrated Shipping Information System(GISIS) of the International Maritime Organization(IMO), and an improved analysis method is proposed to solve the problems of lack of reasonable premise and lack of accident cause analysis for the report of formal safety assessment(EMSA project) submitted by the European Union to IMO concerning the Ropax damage stability. The causes for Ropax collision are analyzed according to the accident data report in the GISIS database, which is treated as the basic incident to establish a Ropax collision cause analysis model with the fault tree method. This study calculated the minimum cut set, carried out the sensitivity analysis, and measured the importance of various dangerous scenarios that may cause collision, then obtained the sequence of dangerous scenes and proposed the measures to control risk, which provides references for reducing the potential collision risk of Ropax ships.
引文
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[2]DNV.Evaluation of risk from raking damages due to grounding,Final report[R].Norway:European Maritime Safety Agency,2015.
[3]吕晓燕,宋明.GISIS港口接收设施不足报告数据的分析[J].中国海事,2013(11):49-52.
[4]张国庆,林滨.油船、散货船、集装箱船的市场特点分析[J].船舶物资与市场,2009(6):30-31.
[5]詹志刚,陈秋华.故障树分析技术在液压舵机系统故障检测中的应用[J].船海工程,2000(2):16-18.
[6]PEDROA,GUEDES C.Fault-tree models of accident scenarios of RoPax vessels[J].International Journal of Automation and Computing,2006,3(2):107-116.
[7]PAPANIKOLAOU A,HAMANN R,LEE B S,et al.GOALDS-goal based damage ship stability and safety standards[J].Accident,Analysis and Prevention,2013,60(45):353.
[8]XING L,AMARI S V.Fault tree analysis[M]//Handbook of Perform Ability Engineering.Springer London,2008:595-620.
[9]ERICSON C A.Fault Tree Analysis[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,1974,23(4):266.
[10]孙红梅,高齐圣,朴营国.关于故障树分析中几种典型重要度的研究[J].电子产品可靠性与环境试验,2007,25(2):39-42.
[11]CHAI T,WENG J,XIONG D Q.Development of a quantitative risk assessment model for ship collisions in fairways[J].Safety Science,2017,91:71-83.
[12]AMROZOWICZ M D,BROWN A,GOLA M.A probabilistic analysis of tanker groundings[C]//Proceedings of the 7th International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference,1997,4:313-333.