改进的GM(1,1)模型对内蒙古自治区手足口病高峰期发病率预测
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摘要
以内蒙古自治区2009~2016年手足口病每年的高发月5~7月的发病数据为研究数据,分别建立自回归移动平均求和(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model,ARIMA)模型与GM(1,1)灰色模型,对内蒙古自治区手足口病的高发月9岁以下儿童发病率进行拟合与预测,两种单一模型预测结果显示,GM(1,1)模型的预测精度高于ARIMA模型。为降低数据波动性对GM(1,1)模型预测效果的影响,文中基于弱化缓冲算子对GM(1,1)模型进行了改进,改进的GM(1,1)模型具有较大的灵活性且提高了传统GM(1,1)模型的预测精度。
We employed empirical analyses based on data about the incidence peak of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)during May-July of each year in Inner Mongolia.An autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model and GM(1,1)gray model were established.During peak months of HFMD,the incidence in children aged ≤5 years was fitted and predicted in Inner Mongolia.Results showed that prediction using the GM(1,1)gray model was more precise than that using the ARIMA model.To reduce the impact of data volatility,the improved GM(1,1)model using a weakened buffer operator was applied,and this model had more flexibility and improved the prediction accuracy of general GM(1,1).
We employed empirical analyses based on data about the incidence peak of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)during May-July of each year in Inner Mongolia.An autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model and GM(1,1)gray model were established.During peak months of HFMD,the incidence in children aged ≤5 years was fitted and predicted in Inner Mongolia.Results showed that prediction using the GM(1,1)gray model was more precise than that using the ARIMA model.To reduce the impact of data volatility,the improved GM(1,1)model using a weakened buffer operator was applied,and this model had more flexibility and improved the prediction accuracy of general GM(1,1).
引文
[1]薛志华,余亚庆.气候资源禀赋的内蒙古[J].气象知识,2016(4):6-7.
[2]洪志敏,王晓磊,郭卫东,魏利东,郝慧.2009~2014年内蒙古手足口病时空扫描聚集性分析[J].现代预防医学,2017,44(10):1729-1733+1738.
[3]张勇,南立娟,武桂森,檀晓娟,徐冬冬,顾苏仪,祝双利。严冬梅,安洪秋,许文波.2007年内蒙古一起手足口病暴发的流行病学和病原学分析[J].病毒学报,2009,25(3):159-165.
[4]蔡晓虹,万秋萍,吴益生,熊建箐,徐敏钢,李恩国.ARIMA模型预测上海市闸北区手足口病发病趋势[J].实用预防医学,2012,19(3):381-384.
[5]陈小英,张义,刘峰,王林江,李广智,陈飒.ARIMA模型在宝鸡市手足口病预警预测中的应用[J].疾病监测,2016,31(6):492-497.
[6]刘继恒,白春林,孙要武,张皓,贺圆圆.应用ARIMA模型预测宜昌市手足口病的发病趋势[J].中国热带医学,2014,14(8):956-958.
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[9]甘月云,陈星,付军,袁晓明.基于灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的城镇生活需水量预测[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(9):40-42.
[10]朱蒙蒙,颜康康,王秉文,汪龙贵,邓伟国.灰色GM(1,1)模型在医护比例预测研究中的应用[J].中国卫生统计,2014,31(4):690-692.
[11]Yuan C,Liu S,Fang Z.Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA(the autoregressive integrated moving average)model and GM(1,1)model[J].Energy,2016,100:384-390.
[12]钱吴永,党耀国.基于平均增长率的弱化变权缓冲算子及其性质[J].系统工程,2011,29(1):105-110.
[13]初迪,王文瑞,郭卫东,郎胜利,王艳玲,王莹.2011-2015年内蒙古自治区手足口病的流行特征分析[J].疾病监测与控制,2017,11(7):542-544.
[14]洪志敏,郝慧,王晓磊,王文瑞,魏利东.2009-2016年内蒙古地区重症手足口病时空流行特征分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2017,21(10):1048-1051+1070.
[15]程学森,王东艳,张勇,王文瑞,闫绍宏,许文波,田晓灵.内蒙古自治区2008-2015年手足口病流行病学特征及病原学分析[J].中国病毒病杂志,2017,7(2):107-112.
[16]李相红.内蒙古赤峰市2013年手足口病流行病学及临床特征分析[J].中国中西医结合儿科学,2015,7(2):188-190.
[17]钱吴永,党耀国.基于平均增长率的弱化变权缓冲算子及其性质[J].系统工程,2011,29(1):105-110.
[18]叶璟,李炳军,刘芳.弱化缓冲算子对GM(1,1)模型的预测效应及适用性[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(9):2364-2371.
[19]王丙刚,曲波,郭海强,张蕾,金鑫,李刚,孙高.传染病预测的数学模型研究[J].中国卫生统计,2007,24(5):536-540.
[2]洪志敏,王晓磊,郭卫东,魏利东,郝慧.2009~2014年内蒙古手足口病时空扫描聚集性分析[J].现代预防医学,2017,44(10):1729-1733+1738.
[3]张勇,南立娟,武桂森,檀晓娟,徐冬冬,顾苏仪,祝双利。严冬梅,安洪秋,许文波.2007年内蒙古一起手足口病暴发的流行病学和病原学分析[J].病毒学报,2009,25(3):159-165.
[4]蔡晓虹,万秋萍,吴益生,熊建箐,徐敏钢,李恩国.ARIMA模型预测上海市闸北区手足口病发病趋势[J].实用预防医学,2012,19(3):381-384.
[5]陈小英,张义,刘峰,王林江,李广智,陈飒.ARIMA模型在宝鸡市手足口病预警预测中的应用[J].疾病监测,2016,31(6):492-497.
[6]刘继恒,白春林,孙要武,张皓,贺圆圆.应用ARIMA模型预测宜昌市手足口病的发病趋势[J].中国热带医学,2014,14(8):956-958.
[7]邓聚龙.灰色系统理论教程[M].华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[8]王国兴.GM(1,1)模型的改进及应用[J].应用泛函分析学报,2013,15(3):22-24.
[9]甘月云,陈星,付军,袁晓明.基于灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的城镇生活需水量预测[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(9):40-42.
[10]朱蒙蒙,颜康康,王秉文,汪龙贵,邓伟国.灰色GM(1,1)模型在医护比例预测研究中的应用[J].中国卫生统计,2014,31(4):690-692.
[11]Yuan C,Liu S,Fang Z.Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA(the autoregressive integrated moving average)model and GM(1,1)model[J].Energy,2016,100:384-390.
[12]钱吴永,党耀国.基于平均增长率的弱化变权缓冲算子及其性质[J].系统工程,2011,29(1):105-110.
[13]初迪,王文瑞,郭卫东,郎胜利,王艳玲,王莹.2011-2015年内蒙古自治区手足口病的流行特征分析[J].疾病监测与控制,2017,11(7):542-544.
[14]洪志敏,郝慧,王晓磊,王文瑞,魏利东.2009-2016年内蒙古地区重症手足口病时空流行特征分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2017,21(10):1048-1051+1070.
[15]程学森,王东艳,张勇,王文瑞,闫绍宏,许文波,田晓灵.内蒙古自治区2008-2015年手足口病流行病学特征及病原学分析[J].中国病毒病杂志,2017,7(2):107-112.
[16]李相红.内蒙古赤峰市2013年手足口病流行病学及临床特征分析[J].中国中西医结合儿科学,2015,7(2):188-190.
[17]钱吴永,党耀国.基于平均增长率的弱化变权缓冲算子及其性质[J].系统工程,2011,29(1):105-110.
[18]叶璟,李炳军,刘芳.弱化缓冲算子对GM(1,1)模型的预测效应及适用性[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(9):2364-2371.
[19]王丙刚,曲波,郭海强,张蕾,金鑫,李刚,孙高.传染病预测的数学模型研究[J].中国卫生统计,2007,24(5):536-540.