前端污染治理与我国企业的就业吸纳——基于拟断点回归方法的考察
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摘要
现有关于环境管制与就业的研究大多忽略了环境管制类型之间的经济效应差异,集中于研究末端环境管制对就业的影响。事实上,不同类型的环境管制政策,其作用机制和效果存在较大的差异;相比于末端环境管制,前端污染治理更多地涉及企业资本投入增加对就业的多渠道影响,更加错综复杂。鉴于此,文章将2001-2005年我国省区层面的清洁生产政策作为外在冲击,并将就业在行业间的再分配效应纳入分析范畴,运用拟断点回归方法,从企业层面考察了前端污染治理对我国企业吸纳就业能力的影响,并探讨了其作用的微观机制。实证结果显示:(1)总体上,前端污染治理对就业产生了正向作用,提高了企业的就业吸纳能力。(2)从影响机制看,前端污染治理主要通过正向的规模效应和市场选择效应提升了企业的就业吸纳能力,具体表现为:前端污染治理通过激励企业更新生产设备而提高了企业的生产效率,而且这一效率提升效应大于生产成本增加效应,最终促使企业扩大生产规模,吸纳更多的就业;通过市场的进入和退出,前端污染治理使得具有一定规模的高效率企业得以进入和存活,进而使整个市场吸纳了更多的就业。(3)从影响的异质性来看,前端污染治理的正向影响主要作用于污染密集型行业、大规模企业和国有企业。上述结论对于制定合理的环境政策,有效调整就业方向,实现环境改善、经济可持续发展和缓解就业压力具有重要的政策涵义。
With the continuous environmental quality deterioration,Chinese government has implemented various environmental regulation policies which lead to a series of debates on environmental protection and economic development. One of the main arguments is that environmental regulations have greatly increased the production and operating cost of enterprises,and companies pursuing profit maximization have to reduce the scale of production,which may result in the loss of employment. Most of the existing studies relating to this point ignore the differences in the economic effect between environmental regulation types,mainly focusing on the impact of terminal environment regulations on employment. In fact,different types of environmental regulations have different mechanisms and economic effects.This paper turns the research perspective from terminal environment regulations to pollution prevention regulations.Specifically,we take the clean production policy at the provincial level in China from 2001 to2005 as a policy shock,employ the method of pseudo-regression discontinuity model to examine the impact of pollution prevention regulations on jobs of enterprises in our country,and explore the micro-mechanism of its effect.The pseudo-regression discontinuity model is a combination of the differences-in-differences and regression discontinuity method,which can not only use the regression discontinuity method to define the treatment group and the control group,taking advantage of the quasi-natural experiment,but also utilize the differences-in-differences method to exclude the effect of unpredictable factors,solve the endogenous problem,and more effectively identify the impact of pollution prevention regulations on employment.The results of this paper show that,on the whole,pollution prevention regulations have played a positive role in promoting employment.In terms of the impact mechanism,pollution prevention regulations encourage enterprises to update their production equipments and enhance their production efficiency.Although the production and operation cost and the efficiency gains are both increased,the productivity improvement effect is greater than the cost increase effect,which eventually expands the scale of production and provides more jobs.At the same time,pollution prevention regulations have enabled a certain number of highly efficient enterprises to enter the market and survive,and the entire market has created more jobs.In addition,technological improvement has not produced a capital substitution for labor and avoided job losses.Finally,the positive impact of pollution prevention regulations mainly exists in heavily-polluting industries,large-scale enterprises,state-owned enterprises.After a series of validity tests,the empirical results of this paper are proved to be effective and robust.The conclusions of this paper have important policy implications.It is necessary to execute and deepen pollution prevention regulations,which will contribute to formulate reasonable environmental policies,effectively relieve employment pressure,and achieve environmental improvement and sustainable economic development.When formulating pollution prevention regulation policies,the government should consider the heterogeneity of industries and provide effective policy guidance for upgrading small-scale enterprises’technology.
With the continuous environmental quality deterioration,Chinese government has implemented various environmental regulation policies which lead to a series of debates on environmental protection and economic development. One of the main arguments is that environmental regulations have greatly increased the production and operating cost of enterprises,and companies pursuing profit maximization have to reduce the scale of production,which may result in the loss of employment. Most of the existing studies relating to this point ignore the differences in the economic effect between environmental regulation types,mainly focusing on the impact of terminal environment regulations on employment. In fact,different types of environmental regulations have different mechanisms and economic effects.This paper turns the research perspective from terminal environment regulations to pollution prevention regulations.Specifically,we take the clean production policy at the provincial level in China from 2001 to2005 as a policy shock,employ the method of pseudo-regression discontinuity model to examine the impact of pollution prevention regulations on jobs of enterprises in our country,and explore the micro-mechanism of its effect.The pseudo-regression discontinuity model is a combination of the differences-in-differences and regression discontinuity method,which can not only use the regression discontinuity method to define the treatment group and the control group,taking advantage of the quasi-natural experiment,but also utilize the differences-in-differences method to exclude the effect of unpredictable factors,solve the endogenous problem,and more effectively identify the impact of pollution prevention regulations on employment.The results of this paper show that,on the whole,pollution prevention regulations have played a positive role in promoting employment.In terms of the impact mechanism,pollution prevention regulations encourage enterprises to update their production equipments and enhance their production efficiency.Although the production and operation cost and the efficiency gains are both increased,the productivity improvement effect is greater than the cost increase effect,which eventually expands the scale of production and provides more jobs.At the same time,pollution prevention regulations have enabled a certain number of highly efficient enterprises to enter the market and survive,and the entire market has created more jobs.In addition,technological improvement has not produced a capital substitution for labor and avoided job losses.Finally,the positive impact of pollution prevention regulations mainly exists in heavily-polluting industries,large-scale enterprises,state-owned enterprises.After a series of validity tests,the empirical results of this paper are proved to be effective and robust.The conclusions of this paper have important policy implications.It is necessary to execute and deepen pollution prevention regulations,which will contribute to formulate reasonable environmental policies,effectively relieve employment pressure,and achieve environmental improvement and sustainable economic development.When formulating pollution prevention regulation policies,the government should consider the heterogeneity of industries and provide effective policy guidance for upgrading small-scale enterprises’technology.
引文
[1]陈诗一.节能减排与中国工业的双赢发展:2009-2049[J].经济研究,2010,(3):129-143.
[2]陈媛媛.行业环境管制对就业影响的经验研究:基于25个工业行业的实证分析[J].当代经济科学,2011,(3):67-73.
[3]刘伟明.环境污染的治理路径与可持续增长:“末端治理”还是“源头控制”?[J].经济评论,2014,(6):41-53.
[4]陆旸.中国的绿色政策与就业:存在双重红利吗?[J].经济研究,2011,(7):42-54.
[5]王勇,施美程,李建民.环境规制对就业的影响--基于中国工业行业面板数据的分析[J].中国人口科学,2013,(3):54-64.
[6]殷杉.“末端治理”与“前端预防”环保理念的差异分析[J].青岛科技大学学报(社会科学版),2003,(3):32-34.
[7]张彩云,王勇,李雅楠.生产过程绿色化能促进就业吗--来自清洁生产标准的证据[J].财贸经济,2017,(3):131-146.
[8]赵连阁,钟搏,王学渊.工业污染治理投资的地区就业效应研究[J].中国工业经济,2014,(5):70-82.
[9]Berman E,Bui L T M.Environmental regulation and labor demand:Evidence from The South Coast Air Basin[J].Journal of Public Economics,2001,79(2):265-295.
[10]Brandt L,Van Biesebroeck J,Zhang Y F.Creative accounting or creative destruction?Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,97(2):339-351.
[11]Brown R S,Christensen L R.Estimating elasticities of substitution in a model of partial static equilibrium:An application to U.S.agriculture,1947-1979[A].Berndt E R,Field B C.Modeling and measuring natural resource substitution[M].Cambridge,MA:MIT Press,1981.
[12]Ferris A,Shadbegian R,Wolverton A.The effect of environmental regulation on employment:An examination of the1990 Clean Air Act Amendments and its impact on the electric power sector[R].Working Paper#14-03,2014.
[13]Gray W B,Shadbegian R J,Wang C B,et al.Do EPA regulations affect labor demand?Evidence from the pulp and paper industry[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2014,68(1):188-202.
[14]Greenstone M.The impacts of environmental regulations on industrial activity:Evidence from the 1970 and 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments and the census of manufactures[J].Journal of Political Economy,2002,110(6):1175-1219.
[15]Greenstone M,Hanna R.Environmental regulations,air and water pollution,and infant mortality in India[J].American Economic Review,2014,104(10):3038-3072.
[16]Hahn J,Todd P,Van Der Klaauw W.Identification and estimation of treatment effects with a regression-discontinuity design[J].Econometrica,2001,69(1):201-209.
[17]Hering L,Poncet S.Environmental policy and exports:Evidence from Chinese cities[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2014,68(2):296-318.
[18]Imbens G,Kalyanaraman K.Optimal bandwidth choice for the regression discontinuity estimator[J].The Review of Economic Studies,2012,79(3):933-959.
[19]Jaffe A B,Stavins R N.Dynamic incentives of environmental regulations:The effects of alternative policy instruments on technology diffusion[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1995,29(3):S43-S63.
[20]Lee D S,Lemieux T.Regression discontinuity designs in economics[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2010,48(2):281-355.
[21]Liu M D,Shadbegian R,Zhang B.Does environmental regulation affect labor demand in China?Evidence from the textile printing and dyeing industry[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2017,86:277-294.
[22]Lu Y,Wang J,Zhu L.Place-based policies,creation,and displacement:Evidence from China’s economic zone program[R].Working Paper,2016.
[23]McCrary J.Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design:A density test[J].Journal of Econometrics,2008,142(2):698-714.
[24]Milliman S R,Prince R.Firm incentives to promote technological change in pollution control[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1989,17(3):247-265.
[25]Morgenstern R D,Pizer W A,Shih J S.Jobs versus the environment:An industry-level perspective[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2002,43:412-436.
[26]Olley G S,Pakes A.The dynamics of productivity in the telecommunications equipment industry[J].Econometrica,1996,64(6):1263-1297.
[27]Tsuyuhara K.Environmental regulation and labor market reallocation:A general equilibrium analysis[R].Working Paper,2015.
[28]Walker W R.The transitional costs of sectoral reallocation:Evidence from the Clean Air Act and the workforce[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2013,128(4):1787-1835.
(1)本文的污染密集型行业划分参照国务院2007年《第一次全国污染源普查方案》,明确我国11个重污染行业分别是:造纸及纸制品业,农副食品加工业,化学原料及化学制品制造业,纺织业,黑色金属冶炼及压延工业,食品制造业,电力、热力的生产和供应业,皮革、毛皮、羽毛(绒)及其制品业,石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业,非金属矿物制品业,有色金属冶炼及压延加工业。限于篇幅,本文未报告我国污染密集型行业与非污染密集型行业的就业统计数据(备索)。
(1)此处的企业就业是指企业吸纳就业的能力;为了表达方便,以下都简称为企业就业。
(1)限于篇幅,本文未报告2001-2005年实施清洁生产政策的省份清单(备索)。
(2)带宽是指用于回归的观测值距离断点处的“窗”的宽度。这一宽度限定了断点两侧观测值的选取范围。如本文选取50km带宽,即指只选取距离断点50km内的观测值作为样本。
(1)为了保持行业代码的一致性,本文所用的《中国统计年鉴》时间跨度为2003-2006年,其中2004年的行业工业总产值为缺失值。
(1)三年判断准则是指通过对企业进行三年的观察来判断企业的状态:新进入企业是指前一期不存在,而当期和后一期均存在的企业;在位企业是指三期均存在的企业;退出企业是指前一期和当期存在,而后一期不存在的企业;仅存在一年的企业是指仅在当期存在的企业。
(2)采用50km带宽以及更换核函数为epanechnikov的回归结果均与表3保持一致。限于篇幅,未报告详细结果(备索)。
(1)断点位置检验是采用Lu等(2016)的方法,将断点两边-100km至75km的区域划分为长度均为25km的7个等分区域,将相邻两个区域的边界假定为断点进行回归。由于篇幅限制,本文仅报告了假定断点为-25km和25km处的回归结果,其他假定断点处的回归结果均与其保持一致(备索)。
(2)1998年我国实施了“两控区”(特指酸雨控制区和二氧化硫污染控制区)的环境政策。
[2]陈媛媛.行业环境管制对就业影响的经验研究:基于25个工业行业的实证分析[J].当代经济科学,2011,(3):67-73.
[3]刘伟明.环境污染的治理路径与可持续增长:“末端治理”还是“源头控制”?[J].经济评论,2014,(6):41-53.
[4]陆旸.中国的绿色政策与就业:存在双重红利吗?[J].经济研究,2011,(7):42-54.
[5]王勇,施美程,李建民.环境规制对就业的影响--基于中国工业行业面板数据的分析[J].中国人口科学,2013,(3):54-64.
[6]殷杉.“末端治理”与“前端预防”环保理念的差异分析[J].青岛科技大学学报(社会科学版),2003,(3):32-34.
[7]张彩云,王勇,李雅楠.生产过程绿色化能促进就业吗--来自清洁生产标准的证据[J].财贸经济,2017,(3):131-146.
[8]赵连阁,钟搏,王学渊.工业污染治理投资的地区就业效应研究[J].中国工业经济,2014,(5):70-82.
[9]Berman E,Bui L T M.Environmental regulation and labor demand:Evidence from The South Coast Air Basin[J].Journal of Public Economics,2001,79(2):265-295.
[10]Brandt L,Van Biesebroeck J,Zhang Y F.Creative accounting or creative destruction?Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing[J].Journal of Development Economics,2012,97(2):339-351.
[11]Brown R S,Christensen L R.Estimating elasticities of substitution in a model of partial static equilibrium:An application to U.S.agriculture,1947-1979[A].Berndt E R,Field B C.Modeling and measuring natural resource substitution[M].Cambridge,MA:MIT Press,1981.
[12]Ferris A,Shadbegian R,Wolverton A.The effect of environmental regulation on employment:An examination of the1990 Clean Air Act Amendments and its impact on the electric power sector[R].Working Paper#14-03,2014.
[13]Gray W B,Shadbegian R J,Wang C B,et al.Do EPA regulations affect labor demand?Evidence from the pulp and paper industry[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2014,68(1):188-202.
[14]Greenstone M.The impacts of environmental regulations on industrial activity:Evidence from the 1970 and 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments and the census of manufactures[J].Journal of Political Economy,2002,110(6):1175-1219.
[15]Greenstone M,Hanna R.Environmental regulations,air and water pollution,and infant mortality in India[J].American Economic Review,2014,104(10):3038-3072.
[16]Hahn J,Todd P,Van Der Klaauw W.Identification and estimation of treatment effects with a regression-discontinuity design[J].Econometrica,2001,69(1):201-209.
[17]Hering L,Poncet S.Environmental policy and exports:Evidence from Chinese cities[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2014,68(2):296-318.
[18]Imbens G,Kalyanaraman K.Optimal bandwidth choice for the regression discontinuity estimator[J].The Review of Economic Studies,2012,79(3):933-959.
[19]Jaffe A B,Stavins R N.Dynamic incentives of environmental regulations:The effects of alternative policy instruments on technology diffusion[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1995,29(3):S43-S63.
[20]Lee D S,Lemieux T.Regression discontinuity designs in economics[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2010,48(2):281-355.
[21]Liu M D,Shadbegian R,Zhang B.Does environmental regulation affect labor demand in China?Evidence from the textile printing and dyeing industry[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2017,86:277-294.
[22]Lu Y,Wang J,Zhu L.Place-based policies,creation,and displacement:Evidence from China’s economic zone program[R].Working Paper,2016.
[23]McCrary J.Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design:A density test[J].Journal of Econometrics,2008,142(2):698-714.
[24]Milliman S R,Prince R.Firm incentives to promote technological change in pollution control[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1989,17(3):247-265.
[25]Morgenstern R D,Pizer W A,Shih J S.Jobs versus the environment:An industry-level perspective[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2002,43:412-436.
[26]Olley G S,Pakes A.The dynamics of productivity in the telecommunications equipment industry[J].Econometrica,1996,64(6):1263-1297.
[27]Tsuyuhara K.Environmental regulation and labor market reallocation:A general equilibrium analysis[R].Working Paper,2015.
[28]Walker W R.The transitional costs of sectoral reallocation:Evidence from the Clean Air Act and the workforce[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2013,128(4):1787-1835.
(1)本文的污染密集型行业划分参照国务院2007年《第一次全国污染源普查方案》,明确我国11个重污染行业分别是:造纸及纸制品业,农副食品加工业,化学原料及化学制品制造业,纺织业,黑色金属冶炼及压延工业,食品制造业,电力、热力的生产和供应业,皮革、毛皮、羽毛(绒)及其制品业,石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业,非金属矿物制品业,有色金属冶炼及压延加工业。限于篇幅,本文未报告我国污染密集型行业与非污染密集型行业的就业统计数据(备索)。
(1)此处的企业就业是指企业吸纳就业的能力;为了表达方便,以下都简称为企业就业。
(1)限于篇幅,本文未报告2001-2005年实施清洁生产政策的省份清单(备索)。
(2)带宽是指用于回归的观测值距离断点处的“窗”的宽度。这一宽度限定了断点两侧观测值的选取范围。如本文选取50km带宽,即指只选取距离断点50km内的观测值作为样本。
(1)为了保持行业代码的一致性,本文所用的《中国统计年鉴》时间跨度为2003-2006年,其中2004年的行业工业总产值为缺失值。
(1)三年判断准则是指通过对企业进行三年的观察来判断企业的状态:新进入企业是指前一期不存在,而当期和后一期均存在的企业;在位企业是指三期均存在的企业;退出企业是指前一期和当期存在,而后一期不存在的企业;仅存在一年的企业是指仅在当期存在的企业。
(2)采用50km带宽以及更换核函数为epanechnikov的回归结果均与表3保持一致。限于篇幅,未报告详细结果(备索)。
(1)断点位置检验是采用Lu等(2016)的方法,将断点两边-100km至75km的区域划分为长度均为25km的7个等分区域,将相邻两个区域的边界假定为断点进行回归。由于篇幅限制,本文仅报告了假定断点为-25km和25km处的回归结果,其他假定断点处的回归结果均与其保持一致(备索)。
(2)1998年我国实施了“两控区”(特指酸雨控制区和二氧化硫污染控制区)的环境政策。
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