户籍歧视、城市体系与城市化——基于新经济地理学视角的理论和实证研究
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摘要
本文在经典模型中纳入户籍歧视因素,构建具有连续经济空间、包含城乡区域的两部门、两要素的新经济地理学城市体系理论模型,对户籍歧视影响城市体系演化和城市化进程进行理论分析和动态模拟。研究认为,户籍歧视直接降低了城市化率,并通过相同人口规模下更多城市的形成间接降低了城市化率;城市的原住民具有妨碍当地户籍开放的经济动力;居民对工业品的偏好程度上升或工业品的交易成本增加会提高城市化率;如果居民的工业品偏好程度较高,则农产品交易成本的增加会提高城市化率;除非居民的工业品偏好程度足够低,否则人口规模扩大或者农业生产技术水平提高会提高城市化率。研究最后用1992—2017年我国的实际数据对理论分析的结论进行了实证检验。
By incorporating the Hukou discrimination into the classic model,this paper builds a NEG theoretical model of urban system with continuous economic space,including urban and rural areas and two sectors and two elements. In this paper,theoretical analysis and dynamic simulation of the impact of the Hukou discrimination on urban system evolution and urbanization process are conducted. The research believes that the Hukou discrimination directly reduces the urbanization rate,and indirectly does so through the formation of more cities under the same population scale. Urban aborigines have the economic incentives to block the opening of local Hukou. In addition,the improvement of residents' preference for industrial products or increased transaction costs of industrial products will increase the urbanization rate. If residents have a higher preference for industrial products, the higher the transaction cost of agricultural products,the higher the urbanization rate. Unless the consumer preference for industrial products is very low,the larger the population or the higher the level of agricultural production technology,the higher the urbanization rate. Finally,the conclusion is tested with the actual data of China from 1992 to 2017.
By incorporating the Hukou discrimination into the classic model,this paper builds a NEG theoretical model of urban system with continuous economic space,including urban and rural areas and two sectors and two elements. In this paper,theoretical analysis and dynamic simulation of the impact of the Hukou discrimination on urban system evolution and urbanization process are conducted. The research believes that the Hukou discrimination directly reduces the urbanization rate,and indirectly does so through the formation of more cities under the same population scale. Urban aborigines have the economic incentives to block the opening of local Hukou. In addition,the improvement of residents' preference for industrial products or increased transaction costs of industrial products will increase the urbanization rate. If residents have a higher preference for industrial products, the higher the transaction cost of agricultural products,the higher the urbanization rate. Unless the consumer preference for industrial products is very low,the larger the population or the higher the level of agricultural production technology,the higher the urbanization rate. Finally,the conclusion is tested with the actual data of China from 1992 to 2017.
引文
[1]安虎森.新区域经济学[M].大连:东北财经大学出版社,2008.
[2]安虎森.新经济地理学原理[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2009.
[3]蔡昉,都阳,王美艳.户籍制度与劳动力市场保护[J].经济研究,2001(12):41-49.
[4]陈飞,颜银根,何文.新型城市化与经济发展——开放经济下的战略抉择[M].广州:广东经济出版社,2014.
[5]都阳,蔡昉,屈小博,程杰.延续中国奇迹:从户籍制度改革中收获红利[J].经济研究,2014(8):4-13.
[6]何文.我国城乡结构与城市化研究——基于NEG视角[D].天津:南开大学,2013.
[7]卢锋.中国农民工工资走势:1979-2010[J].中国社会科学,2012(7):47-67.
[8]世界银行,国务院发展研究中心.中国:推进高效、包容、可持续的城市化[R].北京:中国发展出版社,2014.
[9]孙婧芳.城市劳动力市场中户籍歧视的变化:农民工的就业与工资[J].经济研究,2017(8):171-186.
[10]万海远,李实.户籍歧视对城乡收入差距的影响[J].经济研究,2013(9):43-55.
[11]魏后凯,苏红键.农民工市民化现状报告[N].中国经济周刊,2014-3-20-2014-3-25.
[12]温兴祥.户籍获取、工资增长与农民工的经济同化[J].经济评论,2017(1):135-147.
[13]吴贾,姚先国,张俊森.城乡户籍歧视是否趋于止步——来自改革进程中的经验证据:1989-2011[J].经济研究,2015(11):148-160.
[14]章莉,李实,Darity W.,Sharpe R.中国劳动力市场就业机会的户籍歧视及其变化趋势[J].财经研究,2016(1):4-16.
[15]章莉,李实,Darity W.,Sharpe R.中国劳动力市场上工资收入的户籍歧视[J].管理世界,2014(1):35-46.
[16]Bosker M.,Brakman S.,Garretsen H.,Schramm M.Relaxing Hukou:Increased Labor Mobility and China′s Economic Geography[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2012,72(2):252-66.
[17]Bosker M.,Deichmann U.,Roberts M.Hukou and Highways:The Impact of China's Spatial Development Policies on Urbanization and Regional Inequality[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,2018,71(3):91-109.
[18]Chan K.W.,Buckinham W.Is China Abolishing the Hukou System[J].The China Quarterly,2008,195(3):582-606.
[19]Chan K.W.The Chinese Hukou System at 50[J].Eurasian Geography and Economics,2009,50(2):197-221.
[20]Forslid R.,Ottaviano G.An Analytically Solvable Core-Periphery Model[J].Journal of Economic Geography,2003,3(3):229-40.
[21]Fujita M.,Krugman P.When Is the Economy Monocentric?:Von Thünen and Chamberlin Unified[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,1995,25(4):508-28.
[22]Fujita M.,Krugman P.,Mori T.On the Evolution of Hierarchical Urban Systems[J].European Economic Review,1999,43(2):209-51.
[23]Fujita M.,Mori T.Structural Stability and Evolution of Urban Systems[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,1997,27(4):399-442.
[24]Fujita M.,Mori T.Frontiers of the New Economic Geography[J].Papers in Regional Science,2005,84(3):377-405.
[25]Krugman P.Geography and Trade[M].Cambridge:MIT Press,1991.
[26]Martin P.,Rogers C.A.Industrial Location and Public Infrastructure[J].Journal of International Economics,1995,39(3):335-51.
[27]Northam R.M.Urban Geography[M].New York:John Wiley&Sons,1979.
[28]Whalley J.,Zhang S.A.Numerical Simulation Analysis of(Hukou)Labour Mobility Restrictions in China[J].Journal of Development Economics,2007,83(2):392-410.
(1)如果分别用M(r)和A(r)表示工业品与农业品在运输过程中的数量,并给定M(0)和A(0),从而dM(r)dr=-τ_MM(r)?M(r)=e~(-τMr)M(0), dA(r)dr=τ_A(r)?A(0)=e~(-τA) A(A(r)。
(2)农村地区的农产品生产量都超出了自己的消费量,因此r地区实际上并不存在农产品交易,此处的农产品价格实际上指的是其“价值”。
(1)限于篇幅,本文附录均省略,有需要的读者可以扫描本文二维码查看附录,或者直接向作者索取。
(1)限于篇幅,本文附录均省略,有需要的读者可以扫描本文二维码查看附录,或者直接向作者索取。
(1)选择不同的模拟参数不会对论文的结论产生关键性影响,只影响变量的绝对数值。
(1)2014年国家统计局对2013年的城乡恩格尔系数进行了调整,城市和农村恩格尔系数分别从《中国统计年鉴(2014)》所公布的35.0和37.7下调至30.1和34.1。本文的研究也对1992—2013年的城乡恩格尔系数进行了相应的处理。
(1)1996年和2010年国土资源部完成了第一次和第二次全国土地调查,两次调查结果均大幅调增了我国的耕地面积存量。为了保证数据的可比性,本文对2010年之前的耕地数据进行相应调整。
[2]安虎森.新经济地理学原理[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2009.
[3]蔡昉,都阳,王美艳.户籍制度与劳动力市场保护[J].经济研究,2001(12):41-49.
[4]陈飞,颜银根,何文.新型城市化与经济发展——开放经济下的战略抉择[M].广州:广东经济出版社,2014.
[5]都阳,蔡昉,屈小博,程杰.延续中国奇迹:从户籍制度改革中收获红利[J].经济研究,2014(8):4-13.
[6]何文.我国城乡结构与城市化研究——基于NEG视角[D].天津:南开大学,2013.
[7]卢锋.中国农民工工资走势:1979-2010[J].中国社会科学,2012(7):47-67.
[8]世界银行,国务院发展研究中心.中国:推进高效、包容、可持续的城市化[R].北京:中国发展出版社,2014.
[9]孙婧芳.城市劳动力市场中户籍歧视的变化:农民工的就业与工资[J].经济研究,2017(8):171-186.
[10]万海远,李实.户籍歧视对城乡收入差距的影响[J].经济研究,2013(9):43-55.
[11]魏后凯,苏红键.农民工市民化现状报告[N].中国经济周刊,2014-3-20-2014-3-25.
[12]温兴祥.户籍获取、工资增长与农民工的经济同化[J].经济评论,2017(1):135-147.
[13]吴贾,姚先国,张俊森.城乡户籍歧视是否趋于止步——来自改革进程中的经验证据:1989-2011[J].经济研究,2015(11):148-160.
[14]章莉,李实,Darity W.,Sharpe R.中国劳动力市场就业机会的户籍歧视及其变化趋势[J].财经研究,2016(1):4-16.
[15]章莉,李实,Darity W.,Sharpe R.中国劳动力市场上工资收入的户籍歧视[J].管理世界,2014(1):35-46.
[16]Bosker M.,Brakman S.,Garretsen H.,Schramm M.Relaxing Hukou:Increased Labor Mobility and China′s Economic Geography[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2012,72(2):252-66.
[17]Bosker M.,Deichmann U.,Roberts M.Hukou and Highways:The Impact of China's Spatial Development Policies on Urbanization and Regional Inequality[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,2018,71(3):91-109.
[18]Chan K.W.,Buckinham W.Is China Abolishing the Hukou System[J].The China Quarterly,2008,195(3):582-606.
[19]Chan K.W.The Chinese Hukou System at 50[J].Eurasian Geography and Economics,2009,50(2):197-221.
[20]Forslid R.,Ottaviano G.An Analytically Solvable Core-Periphery Model[J].Journal of Economic Geography,2003,3(3):229-40.
[21]Fujita M.,Krugman P.When Is the Economy Monocentric?:Von Thünen and Chamberlin Unified[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,1995,25(4):508-28.
[22]Fujita M.,Krugman P.,Mori T.On the Evolution of Hierarchical Urban Systems[J].European Economic Review,1999,43(2):209-51.
[23]Fujita M.,Mori T.Structural Stability and Evolution of Urban Systems[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,1997,27(4):399-442.
[24]Fujita M.,Mori T.Frontiers of the New Economic Geography[J].Papers in Regional Science,2005,84(3):377-405.
[25]Krugman P.Geography and Trade[M].Cambridge:MIT Press,1991.
[26]Martin P.,Rogers C.A.Industrial Location and Public Infrastructure[J].Journal of International Economics,1995,39(3):335-51.
[27]Northam R.M.Urban Geography[M].New York:John Wiley&Sons,1979.
[28]Whalley J.,Zhang S.A.Numerical Simulation Analysis of(Hukou)Labour Mobility Restrictions in China[J].Journal of Development Economics,2007,83(2):392-410.
(1)如果分别用M(r)和A(r)表示工业品与农业品在运输过程中的数量,并给定M(0)和A(0),从而dM(r)dr=-τ_MM(r)?M(r)=e~(-τMr)M(0), dA(r)dr=τ_A(r)?A(0)=e~(-τA) A(A(r)。
(2)农村地区的农产品生产量都超出了自己的消费量,因此r地区实际上并不存在农产品交易,此处的农产品价格实际上指的是其“价值”。
(1)限于篇幅,本文附录均省略,有需要的读者可以扫描本文二维码查看附录,或者直接向作者索取。
(1)限于篇幅,本文附录均省略,有需要的读者可以扫描本文二维码查看附录,或者直接向作者索取。
(1)选择不同的模拟参数不会对论文的结论产生关键性影响,只影响变量的绝对数值。
(1)2014年国家统计局对2013年的城乡恩格尔系数进行了调整,城市和农村恩格尔系数分别从《中国统计年鉴(2014)》所公布的35.0和37.7下调至30.1和34.1。本文的研究也对1992—2013年的城乡恩格尔系数进行了相应的处理。
(1)1996年和2010年国土资源部完成了第一次和第二次全国土地调查,两次调查结果均大幅调增了我国的耕地面积存量。为了保证数据的可比性,本文对2010年之前的耕地数据进行相应调整。