PPP旧工业区再生利用项目动态利益分配——基于阶段性风险的Shapley修正模型
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摘要
PPP旧工业区再生利用项目风险系统具有明显的阶段性,相应地影响各阶段利益分配模式.将PPP旧工业区再生利用项目全寿命周期划分为前期阶段、施工阶段与运维阶段,通过文献调查法与专家访谈法识别项目各阶段风险因素,构建动态风险因素指标体系;为使风险计算结果更有意义,将主客观赋权相结合,采用专家打分法和熵权法确定各阶段风险因素权重,建立PPP旧工业区再生利用项目基于阶段性风险因素修正的Shapley动态利益分配模型.从实用角度将某钢厂设计创意产业园与模型建立相结合,以期为类似项目参考借鉴.
PPP old industrial area recycling project risk system has stages that impacting each stage benefit allocation pattern obviously.The dynamic risk factor index system was established by using the literature investigation method and the expert interview method to identify the various risk factors that occur in each stage,which has been divided into 3 parts:prophase stage,implementation stage and operation & maintenance stage.To make the risk calculation result more mcaningfully combining subjective and objective way,expert scoring and entropy method are used to deter mine the weights of risk factors in each stage,established PPP old industrial area recycling dynamic benefit allocation based on risk factor revision of Shapley model.From a practical point of view,the paper combined the steel plant design creative industrial park and the established model together,which aims to be a reference for similar projects.
PPP old industrial area recycling project risk system has stages that impacting each stage benefit allocation pattern obviously.The dynamic risk factor index system was established by using the literature investigation method and the expert interview method to identify the various risk factors that occur in each stage,which has been divided into 3 parts:prophase stage,implementation stage and operation & maintenance stage.To make the risk calculation result more mcaningfully combining subjective and objective way,expert scoring and entropy method are used to deter mine the weights of risk factors in each stage,established PPP old industrial area recycling dynamic benefit allocation based on risk factor revision of Shapley model.From a practical point of view,the paper combined the steel plant design creative industrial park and the established model together,which aims to be a reference for similar projects.
引文
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[13]陈宏辉.企业利益相关者的利益要求:理论与实证研究[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2004.CHEN Honghui.The interests of the stakeholders:theoretical and empirical study[M].Beijing:Economic Management Press,2004.
[14]邓汉慧,张子刚.企业核心利益相关者共同治理模式[J].科研管理,2006(1):85-90.DENG Hanhui,ZHANG Zigang.The model on the core stakeholder corporate governance[J].Science Research Management,2006(1):85-90.
[2]赵晔.我国PPP项目失败案例分析及风险防范[J].地方财政研究,2015(6):52-56.ZHAO Ye.Case analysis and risk prevention of PPP project failure in China[J].Sub National Fiscal Research,2015(6):52-56.
[3]孙荣霞.基于霍尔三维结构的公共基础设施PPP项目融资模式的风险研究[J].经济经纬,2010(6):142-146.SUN Rongxia.A research on the risk of public infrastructure PPP projects financing model based on hall′s three dimensional structure[J].Economic Survey,2010(6):142-146.
[4]张星,孙建平,李胜.BOT项目风险的模糊综合评价[J].上海经济研究,2004(10):69-73.ZHANG Xing,SUN Jianping,LI Sheng.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of BOT project risk[J].Shanghai Economic Review,2004(10):69-73.
[5]段世霞,刘红叶.PPP项目的利益分配两阶段模型[J].财会月刊,2015(28):7-10.DUAN Shixia,LIU Hongye.Two stage model of benefit distribution in PPP project[J].Finance and Accounting Monthly,2015(28):7-10.
[6]何天翔,张云宁,施陆燕,等.基于利益相关者满意的PPP项目利益相关者分配研究[J].土木工程与管理学报,2015,32(3):66-71.HE Tianxiang,ZHANG Yunning,SHI Luyan,et al.Allocation research of stakeholders based on stakeholder satisfaction with the PPP project benefits[J].Journal of Civil Engineering and Management.2015,32(3):66-71.
[7]胡丽,张卫国,叶晓甦.基于SHAPELY修正的PPP项目利益分配模型研究[J].管理工程学报,2011,25(2):149-154.HU Li,ZHANG Weiguo,YE Xiaosu.Profit allocation of PPP model based on the revised SHAPELY[J].Journal of Industrial Engineering/Engineering Management,2011,25(2):149-154.
[8]叶晓甦,吴书霞,单雪芹.我国PPP项目合作中的利益关系及分配方式研究[J].科技进步与对策,2010,27(19):36-39.YE Xiaosu,WU Shuxia,SHAN Xueqin.Research on the interest relationship and distribution mode of PPP project cooperation in China[J].Science&Technology Progress and Policy,2010,27(19):36-39.
[9]王林秀,刘登,马强.PPP项目核心利益相关者的利益分配策略研究[J].商业时代,2011(11):99-100.WANG Linxiu,LIU Deng,MA Qiang.Research on the benefit allocation strategy of core stakeholders in PPP project[J].Journal of Commercial Economics,2011(11):99-100.
[10]徐霞,郑志林.公私合作制(PPP)模式下的利益分配问题探讨[J].城市发展研究,2009,16(3):104-106.XU Xia,ZHENG Zhilin.Benefit assignment in PPP[J].Urban Studies,2009,16(3):104-106.
[11]武乾,王冲,郑德志,等.基于主成分分析的西安旧工业建筑再利用风险因素研究[J].工业建筑,2014,44(10):61-63,90.WU Qian,WANG Chong,ZHENG Dezhi,et al.Research on risk factors of reuse of old industrial buildings in Xi′an based on principal component analysis[J].Industrial Construction,2014,44(10):61-63,90.
[12]武乾,宗一帆.旧工业建筑改造为创意产业园后的潜在危机及应对策略[J].工业安全与环保,2016,42(8):48-50,83.WU Qian,ZONG Yifan.The potential crisis and coping strategies of the old industrial building transform into creative industrial park[J].Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection,2016,42(8):48-50,83.
[13]陈宏辉.企业利益相关者的利益要求:理论与实证研究[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2004.CHEN Honghui.The interests of the stakeholders:theoretical and empirical study[M].Beijing:Economic Management Press,2004.
[14]邓汉慧,张子刚.企业核心利益相关者共同治理模式[J].科研管理,2006(1):85-90.DENG Hanhui,ZHANG Zigang.The model on the core stakeholder corporate governance[J].Science Research Management,2006(1):85-90.