基于折中决策值为参考点的报童订购行为研究
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摘要
较多研究表明,在不确定情况下的决策方面,前景理论不能系统地解释报童实验中的订货行为,这是由于报童的参考点被假设为零所导致的。因此,在折中决策值为心理参考点的前景理论框架下,本文对报童实验结果进行了有效的解释;并将回购和缺货惩罚因素纳入了参考点前景理论报童模型研究其最优订货量,同时发现了其报童模型的最优订货量与回购价格和缺货惩罚单调递增、与损失厌恶系数单调递减,最后通过算例分析对以上研究结果进行了验证。
Many studies have shown that in the case of uncertain decision making,prospect theory cannot systematically explain the ordering behavior in the newsboy experiments,because the newsboy reference point is assumed to be zero. Therefore,under the prospect theory of the eclectic decision value as the psychological reference point,this paper makes an effective explanation about the results of the newsboy's experiment. And we put the repurchasing and shortage punishing into the reference point prospect theory newsboy model to study the optimal order quantity. Meanwhile,it is found that the optimal ordering quantity of the newsboy model increases monotonously with repurchasing price and shortage punishing,and decreases monotonously with loss aversion coefficient. Finally,an example is given to verify the above research results.
Many studies have shown that in the case of uncertain decision making,prospect theory cannot systematically explain the ordering behavior in the newsboy experiments,because the newsboy reference point is assumed to be zero. Therefore,under the prospect theory of the eclectic decision value as the psychological reference point,this paper makes an effective explanation about the results of the newsboy's experiment. And we put the repurchasing and shortage punishing into the reference point prospect theory newsboy model to study the optimal order quantity. Meanwhile,it is found that the optimal ordering quantity of the newsboy model increases monotonously with repurchasing price and shortage punishing,and decreases monotonously with loss aversion coefficient. Finally,an example is given to verify the above research results.
引文
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[2]Kahneman D.,Tversky A.Prospect Theory:An Analysis of Decision under Risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-291
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[8]崔崟,陈剑,肖勇波.行为库存管理研究综述及前景展望[J].管理科学学报,2011,14(6):96-108
[9]Croson D.,Croson R.,Ren Y.How to Manage an Overconfident Agent[R].UT Dallas,2008
[10]Schweitzer M.E.,Cachon G.P.Decision Bias in the Newsvendor Problem with a Known Demand Distribution:Experimental Evidence[J].Management Science,2000,46(3):404-420
[11]Benzion U.,Cohen Y.,Peled R.,et al.Decision-making and the Newsvendor Problem:An Experimental Study[J].Journal of the Operational Research Society,2008,59(9):1281-1287
[12]Bolton G.E.,Katok E.Learning by Doing in the Newsvendor Problem:A Laboratory Investigation of the Role of Experience and Feedback[J].Manufacturing&Service Operations Management,2008,10(10):519-538
[13]Kremer M.,Minner S.,Van Wassenhove L.N.Do Random Errors Explain Newsvendor Behavior?[J].Manufacturing&Service Operations Management,2010,12(4):673-681
[14]Fisher M.,Raman A.Reducing the Cost of Demand Uncertainty through Accurate Response to Early Sales[J].Operations Research,1996,5(4):297-323
[15]Tversky A.,Kahneman D.Advance in Prospect Theory:Cummulative Representation of Uncertainty[J].Econometrica,1992,47(2):263-291
[16]邓天虎,黄四民.基于预期理论的报童模型及敏感性分析[J].管理评论,2009,21(6):108-112
[17]Wangaba C.X.Would a Risk Averse Newsvendor Order Less at a Higher Selling Price?[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2009,196(2):544-553
[18]Nagarajan M.,Shechter S.Prospect Theory and the Newsvendor Problem[J].Management Science,2014,60(4):1057-1062
[19]Zhao X.,Geng W.A Note on Prospect Theory and the Newsvendor Problem[J].Journal of the Operations Research Society of China,2015,3(1):89-94
[20]De Giorgi E.G.,Post T.Loss Aversion with a State Dependent Reference Point[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2007,57(2010-23):1094-1110
[21]Uppari B.S.,Hasija S.On the Consistency between Prospect Theory and the Newsvendor Pull-to-Center Effect[J/OL].http://papers.ssm.com/s013/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2485149,2017
[22]Long X.Y.,Javad N.Prospect Theory Explains Newsvendor Behavior:The Role of Reference Points[J].Management Science,2015,61(12):3009-3012
[23]冯艳刚,李健,吴军.考虑消费者止步行为的供应链回购契约研究[J].管理评论,2014,26(8):181-187
[24]Anderson E.T.,Fitzsimons G.J.,Simester D.Measuring and Mitigating the Costs of Stockouts[J].Management Science,2006,52(11):1751-1763
[25]冯华,崔元锋,马士华.基于交货期库存协调的供应链转移定价研究[J].管理科学学报,2008,11(2):71-79
[26]褚宏睿,冉伦,李金林.带有回购和缺货惩罚的损失厌恶报童问题[J].管理评论,2014,26(4):101-110
[27]Wang C.X.,Webster S.The Loss-Averse Newsvendor Problem[J].The International Journal of Management Science,2009,37(1):93-105
[28]张鹏,张杰,马俊.考虑期望损失厌恶的供应链契约与协调[J].管理评论,2015,27(4):177-186
[29]Koszegi B.,Rabin M.A Model of Reference-Dependent References[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2006,121(4):1133-1165
[30]Herweg F.The Expectation-Based Loss-Averse Newsvendor[J].Economics Letters,2013,120(3):429-432
[31]Zhao X.B.,Geng W.A Note on“Prospect Theory and the Newsvendor Problem”[J].Journal of the Operations Research Society of China,2015,3(1):89-94
[32]文平.损失厌恶的报童预期理论下的报童问题新解[J].中国管理科学,2005,13(6):64-68
[33]窦亚芹,白少布,储俊.基于供应商回购激励的供应链投融资协调策略[J].管理评论,2016,28(6):205-215
[34]何瑛,李娇,王增民.中国上市公司宣告和实施股份回购的影响因素研究[J].管理评论,2016,28(4):12-20
[2]Kahneman D.,Tversky A.Prospect Theory:An Analysis of Decision under Risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-291
[3]Keeney R.L.,Raiffa H.Decisions with Multiple Objectives:Preferences and Value Tradeoffs[M].New York:Wiley Press,1976
[4]Ziegler B.IBM Sells Out New Aptivapc:Shortage may Cost Millions in Potential Revenue[N].Wall Street Journal,1994-10-7
[5]唯品会.唯品会第三季度财务报表[DB/OL].https://wenku.baidu.com/view/968f69ebb14e852458fb5799.html,2012
[6]Zanakis S.H.,Austin L.M.,Nowading D.C.,et al.From Teaching to Implementing Inventory Management:Problems of Translation[J].Interfaces,1980,10(6):103-110
[7]Tiwari V.,Gavirneni S.,The Art and Science of Practice:Recoupling Inventory Control Research and Practice:Guidelines for Achieving Synergy[J].Interfaces,2007,37(2):176-186
[8]崔崟,陈剑,肖勇波.行为库存管理研究综述及前景展望[J].管理科学学报,2011,14(6):96-108
[9]Croson D.,Croson R.,Ren Y.How to Manage an Overconfident Agent[R].UT Dallas,2008
[10]Schweitzer M.E.,Cachon G.P.Decision Bias in the Newsvendor Problem with a Known Demand Distribution:Experimental Evidence[J].Management Science,2000,46(3):404-420
[11]Benzion U.,Cohen Y.,Peled R.,et al.Decision-making and the Newsvendor Problem:An Experimental Study[J].Journal of the Operational Research Society,2008,59(9):1281-1287
[12]Bolton G.E.,Katok E.Learning by Doing in the Newsvendor Problem:A Laboratory Investigation of the Role of Experience and Feedback[J].Manufacturing&Service Operations Management,2008,10(10):519-538
[13]Kremer M.,Minner S.,Van Wassenhove L.N.Do Random Errors Explain Newsvendor Behavior?[J].Manufacturing&Service Operations Management,2010,12(4):673-681
[14]Fisher M.,Raman A.Reducing the Cost of Demand Uncertainty through Accurate Response to Early Sales[J].Operations Research,1996,5(4):297-323
[15]Tversky A.,Kahneman D.Advance in Prospect Theory:Cummulative Representation of Uncertainty[J].Econometrica,1992,47(2):263-291
[16]邓天虎,黄四民.基于预期理论的报童模型及敏感性分析[J].管理评论,2009,21(6):108-112
[17]Wangaba C.X.Would a Risk Averse Newsvendor Order Less at a Higher Selling Price?[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2009,196(2):544-553
[18]Nagarajan M.,Shechter S.Prospect Theory and the Newsvendor Problem[J].Management Science,2014,60(4):1057-1062
[19]Zhao X.,Geng W.A Note on Prospect Theory and the Newsvendor Problem[J].Journal of the Operations Research Society of China,2015,3(1):89-94
[20]De Giorgi E.G.,Post T.Loss Aversion with a State Dependent Reference Point[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2007,57(2010-23):1094-1110
[21]Uppari B.S.,Hasija S.On the Consistency between Prospect Theory and the Newsvendor Pull-to-Center Effect[J/OL].http://papers.ssm.com/s013/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2485149,2017
[22]Long X.Y.,Javad N.Prospect Theory Explains Newsvendor Behavior:The Role of Reference Points[J].Management Science,2015,61(12):3009-3012
[23]冯艳刚,李健,吴军.考虑消费者止步行为的供应链回购契约研究[J].管理评论,2014,26(8):181-187
[24]Anderson E.T.,Fitzsimons G.J.,Simester D.Measuring and Mitigating the Costs of Stockouts[J].Management Science,2006,52(11):1751-1763
[25]冯华,崔元锋,马士华.基于交货期库存协调的供应链转移定价研究[J].管理科学学报,2008,11(2):71-79
[26]褚宏睿,冉伦,李金林.带有回购和缺货惩罚的损失厌恶报童问题[J].管理评论,2014,26(4):101-110
[27]Wang C.X.,Webster S.The Loss-Averse Newsvendor Problem[J].The International Journal of Management Science,2009,37(1):93-105
[28]张鹏,张杰,马俊.考虑期望损失厌恶的供应链契约与协调[J].管理评论,2015,27(4):177-186
[29]Koszegi B.,Rabin M.A Model of Reference-Dependent References[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2006,121(4):1133-1165
[30]Herweg F.The Expectation-Based Loss-Averse Newsvendor[J].Economics Letters,2013,120(3):429-432
[31]Zhao X.B.,Geng W.A Note on“Prospect Theory and the Newsvendor Problem”[J].Journal of the Operations Research Society of China,2015,3(1):89-94
[32]文平.损失厌恶的报童预期理论下的报童问题新解[J].中国管理科学,2005,13(6):64-68
[33]窦亚芹,白少布,储俊.基于供应商回购激励的供应链投融资协调策略[J].管理评论,2016,28(6):205-215
[34]何瑛,李娇,王增民.中国上市公司宣告和实施股份回购的影响因素研究[J].管理评论,2016,28(4):12-20