大战略调整背景下的战略不确定性——特朗普对朝政策与半岛安全形势演进
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摘要
特朗普就任以来,在朝核问题上以"极限施压与接触"取代奥巴马的"战略忍耐",对朝政策出现重大调整。在过去近两年时间里,美国分阶段、有重点、同时亦极其灵活地运用军事威胁、经济施压、言语挑衅和外交劝服等多重手段,推动了半岛安全形势的新发展。特朗普对朝政策调整,无论是直接发出战争威胁,或是与朝鲜领导人的历史性会晤,均源自一种简单化思维,体现出对所谓"战略不确定性"的极度运用,可以看作是美国应对大国竞争战略的组成部分,存在战略遏阻中国的考虑。"极限施压与接触"战略并不足以决定性改变朝核问题的实质,更勿论破除半岛安全的根本症结。半岛形势很可能再次回到外交角力与多方博弈、周期性的"紧张和缓和"循环当中。中国需在深入分析把握美国对朝、半岛和对华政策逻辑、实质的基础上,进一步清晰中国相关政策的优先次序及时间和空间节点,助力实现半岛形势的总体战略稳定。
Since taking over the presidency,Donald Trump abandoned Mr. Obama's DPRK Policy of "Strategic Patience" instead of "Maximum Pressure and Engagement." In the last two years,Trump Government applied policies including military threatens,economic sanctions,diplomatic persuasion and verbal aggression,which highly influenced the development of security situation of Korean Peninsula. Trump's adjustment of DPRK policy,including threatening war or historically meeting with DPRK leader,originates from a simplified consideration by utilizing "strategic uncertainty." Trump's policy could be analyzed as a part of US grand strategy of dealing with competition of great powers,especially strategically containing China. Trump's policy could not decisively change the status quo of Korean Peninsula or even resolve the problem of proliferation of WMD and the Peninsula's security situation will go back to multilateral diplomatic wrangling. China should deeply analyze the logic and core of US policy to China,DPRK and the Peninsula and after that reset the priority of China's strategic aims in concerning issues in order to realize the stability of the Peninsula's security situation.
Since taking over the presidency,Donald Trump abandoned Mr. Obama's DPRK Policy of "Strategic Patience" instead of "Maximum Pressure and Engagement." In the last two years,Trump Government applied policies including military threatens,economic sanctions,diplomatic persuasion and verbal aggression,which highly influenced the development of security situation of Korean Peninsula. Trump's adjustment of DPRK policy,including threatening war or historically meeting with DPRK leader,originates from a simplified consideration by utilizing "strategic uncertainty." Trump's policy could be analyzed as a part of US grand strategy of dealing with competition of great powers,especially strategically containing China. Trump's policy could not decisively change the status quo of Korean Peninsula or even resolve the problem of proliferation of WMD and the Peninsula's security situation will go back to multilateral diplomatic wrangling. China should deeply analyze the logic and core of US policy to China,DPRK and the Peninsula and after that reset the priority of China's strategic aims in concerning issues in order to realize the stability of the Peninsula's security situation.
引文
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[2] Leif-Eric Easley. From Strategic Patience to Strategic Uncertainty:Trump,North Korea,and South Korea's New President[J].World Affairs,2017(2):7-9.
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[16] Victor Cha and Katrin Fraser Katz. The Right Way to Coerce North Korea:Ending the Threat without Going to War[J].Foreign Affairs,2018(3):87-88.
[17]朝鲜就新型洲际弹道火箭试射成功发表政府声明[EB/OL].劳动新闻网,http://www.rodong.rep.kp/cn/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2017-11-29-0003.
[18]金正恩发表声明回击特朗普:以火惩治美国疯子[EB/OL].中国网,http://www.china.com.cn/news/2017-09/22/content_41629130.htm.
[19]葛汉文.“拒绝衰落”与“美国要塞化”:特朗普的大战略[J].国际安全研究,2018(3):89-94.
[20]朝鲜进行第五次核试验:称系应对美国威胁和制裁[EB/OL].中新网,http://www.chinanews.com/gj/2016/09-10/8000117.shtml.
[21] Juergen Kleiner. The Bush Administration and the Nuclear Challenges by North Korea[J].Diplomacy and Statecraft,2005(2):206-371.
[22] The White House. Joint Statement by President Trump and Chairman of the State Affairs Commission Kim Jong Un of North Korea[EB/OL].https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-presidentdonald-j-trump-united-states-america-chairman-kim-jong-un-democratic-peoples-republic-korea-singapore-summit/.
[23] ABC. After talks,North Korea accuses U.S. of"gangster-like"demands[EB/OL].https://abcnews4.com/news/nation-world/after-talks-nkorea-accuses-us-of-gangster-like-demands-07-08-2018-014932194.
[24] Barry R. Posen. The Rise of Illiberal Hegemony:Trump's Surprising Grand Strategy[J].Foreign Affairs,2018(2):20.
[25]高丽大学校韩国史研究室.新编韩国史[M].孙科志译.济南:山东大学出版社,2010:191.
[26] Patrick McEachern,and Jaclyn O'Brien McEachern. North Korea,Iran,and the Challenge to International.Order:A Comparative Perspective[M].London&New York:Routledge,2018:103-139.
[27] Robert Jervis,and Mira Rapp-Hooper. Perception and Misperception on the Korean Peninsula:How Unwanted Wars Begin[J].Foreign Affairs,2018(3):104.
[28]葛汉文.“事大”还是“平衡”:韩国的对外战略传统及当下效应[J].和平与发展,2017(5):46-47.
[29] Josh Rogin. Maximum pressure on North Korea is gone,and it isn't coming back[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/maximum-pressure-on-north-korea-is-gone-and-it-isnt-coming-back/2018/05/17/e52f7ac6-5a10-11e8-b656-a5f8c2a9295d_story.html?utm_term=.0e9fa6802767.
(1)分别为6月2日通过的2356号、8月5日的2371号、9月11日的2375号和12月22日通过的2397号决议。
[2] Leif-Eric Easley. From Strategic Patience to Strategic Uncertainty:Trump,North Korea,and South Korea's New President[J].World Affairs,2017(2):7-9.
[3]罗伯特·阿特.美国大战略[M].郭树勇译.北京:北京大学出版社,2014:59-61.
[4]巴里·波森.克制:美国大战略的新基础[M].曲丹译.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2016:122.
[5] Niv Farago.Washington's Failure to Resolve the North Korean Nuclear Conundrum:Examining Two Decades of US Policy[J].International Affairs,2016(5):1128-1134.
[6] The White House. National Security Strategy of the United States of America(2002)[M].Washington D.C.:The White House,2002:14.
[7] Evans J. R. Revere. Tough Challenges,Hard Choices:Dealing with North Korea after the Collapse of the Leap Day Agreement[J].American Foreign Policy Interests,2012(4):171-172.
[8] The White House. National Security Strategy of the United States of America(2017)[M].Washington D.C.:The White House,2017:1-25.
[9] Jun Ji-hye. Korea,US will hold largest-ever joint military drills[EB/OL].http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/02/205_223450.html.
[10] U.S. Department of Defense. Exercise Ulchi Freedom Guardian 2017[EB/OL].https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2017/08/mil-170818-dod01.htm.
[11] U.S. Navy. For first time in a decade,three US carriers to exercise in Western Pacific[EB/OL].https://navaltoday.com/2017/11/09/for-first-time-in-a-decade-three-us-carriers-to-exercise-in-western-pacific/.
[12] Charlsy Panzino. Air Force F-22s,F-35s deploy to Korea for Vigilant Ace exercise[EB/OL].https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2017/12/03/air-force-f-22s-f-35s-deploy-to-korea-for-vigilant-aceexercise/.
[13] U.S. Department of The Treasury. North Korea Sanctions Advisory[EB/OL].https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/OFAC-Enforcement/Documents/dprk_vessel_advisory_02232018.pdf.
[14] Kevin Liptak and Jeremy Diamond. Trump to UN:"Rocket Man is on a suicide mission"[EB/OL].https://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/18/politics/donald-trump-un-speech-iran-north-korea/index.html.
[15] Karen DeYoung,and John Wagner. Trump threatens'fire and fury'in response to North Korean threats[EB/OL].https://www. washingtonpost. com/politics/trump-tweets-news-report-citing-anonymous-sources-on-n-korea-movements/2017/08/08/47a9b9c0-7c48-11e7-83c7-5bd5460f0d7e_story.html?utm_term=.ec4cf20c6a40.
[16] Victor Cha and Katrin Fraser Katz. The Right Way to Coerce North Korea:Ending the Threat without Going to War[J].Foreign Affairs,2018(3):87-88.
[17]朝鲜就新型洲际弹道火箭试射成功发表政府声明[EB/OL].劳动新闻网,http://www.rodong.rep.kp/cn/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2017-11-29-0003.
[18]金正恩发表声明回击特朗普:以火惩治美国疯子[EB/OL].中国网,http://www.china.com.cn/news/2017-09/22/content_41629130.htm.
[19]葛汉文.“拒绝衰落”与“美国要塞化”:特朗普的大战略[J].国际安全研究,2018(3):89-94.
[20]朝鲜进行第五次核试验:称系应对美国威胁和制裁[EB/OL].中新网,http://www.chinanews.com/gj/2016/09-10/8000117.shtml.
[21] Juergen Kleiner. The Bush Administration and the Nuclear Challenges by North Korea[J].Diplomacy and Statecraft,2005(2):206-371.
[22] The White House. Joint Statement by President Trump and Chairman of the State Affairs Commission Kim Jong Un of North Korea[EB/OL].https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-presidentdonald-j-trump-united-states-america-chairman-kim-jong-un-democratic-peoples-republic-korea-singapore-summit/.
[23] ABC. After talks,North Korea accuses U.S. of"gangster-like"demands[EB/OL].https://abcnews4.com/news/nation-world/after-talks-nkorea-accuses-us-of-gangster-like-demands-07-08-2018-014932194.
[24] Barry R. Posen. The Rise of Illiberal Hegemony:Trump's Surprising Grand Strategy[J].Foreign Affairs,2018(2):20.
[25]高丽大学校韩国史研究室.新编韩国史[M].孙科志译.济南:山东大学出版社,2010:191.
[26] Patrick McEachern,and Jaclyn O'Brien McEachern. North Korea,Iran,and the Challenge to International.Order:A Comparative Perspective[M].London&New York:Routledge,2018:103-139.
[27] Robert Jervis,and Mira Rapp-Hooper. Perception and Misperception on the Korean Peninsula:How Unwanted Wars Begin[J].Foreign Affairs,2018(3):104.
[28]葛汉文.“事大”还是“平衡”:韩国的对外战略传统及当下效应[J].和平与发展,2017(5):46-47.
[29] Josh Rogin. Maximum pressure on North Korea is gone,and it isn't coming back[EB/OL].https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/maximum-pressure-on-north-korea-is-gone-and-it-isnt-coming-back/2018/05/17/e52f7ac6-5a10-11e8-b656-a5f8c2a9295d_story.html?utm_term=.0e9fa6802767.
(1)分别为6月2日通过的2356号、8月5日的2371号、9月11日的2375号和12月22日通过的2397号决议。
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