林权流转价格及其影响因素分析
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摘要
以林农拥有的活立木为研究对象,利用2007—2017年浙江省1546宗活立木流转样本,采用多元线性回归实证分析了是否在林权交易中心交易对活立木流转价格存在影响。结果表明:关键解释变量是否在林权交易中心进行交易对活立木流转价格具有显著的正向影响;流转面积、单位面积蓄积、区域虚拟变量、坡度等对流转价格都产生一定程度的影响;流转期限对流转价格的影响不大。因此,需要加强对林权交易中心的宣传,降低相关的交易成本,从而吸引更多的小规模林农参与交易。
⑴ Background——With the gradual advancement of collective forest tenure reform,as an important part of collective forest tenure reform,the transfer of forest tenure can not only realize the large-scale management of forestland,but also improve the efficiency of forestland management. However,since the collective forest tenure reform,the forestland has become heavily dispersed. The establishment and development of forest tenure trading center,but also provide new trading channels and many comprehensive services for both sides of the transaction,thus becoming a hot topic for experts and scholars.⑵ Methods——Taking the standing timber owned by forest farmers as the research object and based on the data collected from 1546 Standing timber transfer in Zhejiang Province from 2007 to 2017,the multivariate linear regression analysis was used to empirically analyze the impact of whether trading in forest tenure trading center on the transfer price of standing timber. At same time,due to the large sample differences between trading centers and non-trading centers,the tendency score matching was used to test in order to make the regression results more convincing.⑶ Results——The number of live timbers traded through the forest rights trading center is relatively large,with 116 circulations above 10 hm2,accounting for 58. 29% of the total circulation of 199. The non-forest rights trading center mainly focuses on small-scale live timber transfer,with 939 circulations ranging from 0. 00 to 1. 50 hm2,accounting for 70% of the total circulation of 1347. Whether trading in the forest rights trading center has a very significant positive impact on the price of live timber,under the same circumstances,the transaction price of live timber trading in the forest rights trading center is higher than that in the non-forest rights trading center. The circulation scale is an important factor affecting the price of live standing timber. The larger the circulation area,the lower the circulation price.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Whether the sample from inside and outside trading centers is regressed as a whole or the sample from trading centers is matched with the sample from non-trading centers is regressed after the tendency score is matched,whether to trade in forest tenure trading centers has a significant positive impact on the transfer price of standing wood,The higher the transaction price of well-stocked standing timber is,the more likely the large area of standing timber is to be sold at lower prices. Trading in the trading centers mainly focuses on the transfer of large-scale standing timber such as state-owned forests and collective forests,but the transaction volume is not large. Small forest farmers are more inclined to trade in non-trading centers. There are two reasons for this. On the one hand,as a new thing,the farmers' lack of understanding of the trading center reduces the possibility of choosing trading center. On the other hand,the cost of trading at the trading center may be higher for small forest farmers. Therefore,we should strengthen the propaganda of trading centers,simplify the procedures,and reduce the transaction costs so as to attract more small forest farmers to participate in trading center transactions. In the process of collecting data,the transaction cost of transactions in the trading center is not collected,so the data in this paper has certain limitations. The conclusion that the transaction price of the trading center is higher than that of the non-trading center is also temporary. To this end,if we want to study the impact of trading center on the transfer price more deeply,we must conduct research under the premise of considering the transaction cost,so that the results will be more reliable.
⑴ Background——With the gradual advancement of collective forest tenure reform,as an important part of collective forest tenure reform,the transfer of forest tenure can not only realize the large-scale management of forestland,but also improve the efficiency of forestland management. However,since the collective forest tenure reform,the forestland has become heavily dispersed. The establishment and development of forest tenure trading center,but also provide new trading channels and many comprehensive services for both sides of the transaction,thus becoming a hot topic for experts and scholars.⑵ Methods——Taking the standing timber owned by forest farmers as the research object and based on the data collected from 1546 Standing timber transfer in Zhejiang Province from 2007 to 2017,the multivariate linear regression analysis was used to empirically analyze the impact of whether trading in forest tenure trading center on the transfer price of standing timber. At same time,due to the large sample differences between trading centers and non-trading centers,the tendency score matching was used to test in order to make the regression results more convincing.⑶ Results——The number of live timbers traded through the forest rights trading center is relatively large,with 116 circulations above 10 hm2,accounting for 58. 29% of the total circulation of 199. The non-forest rights trading center mainly focuses on small-scale live timber transfer,with 939 circulations ranging from 0. 00 to 1. 50 hm2,accounting for 70% of the total circulation of 1347. Whether trading in the forest rights trading center has a very significant positive impact on the price of live timber,under the same circumstances,the transaction price of live timber trading in the forest rights trading center is higher than that in the non-forest rights trading center. The circulation scale is an important factor affecting the price of live standing timber. The larger the circulation area,the lower the circulation price.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Whether the sample from inside and outside trading centers is regressed as a whole or the sample from trading centers is matched with the sample from non-trading centers is regressed after the tendency score is matched,whether to trade in forest tenure trading centers has a significant positive impact on the transfer price of standing wood,The higher the transaction price of well-stocked standing timber is,the more likely the large area of standing timber is to be sold at lower prices. Trading in the trading centers mainly focuses on the transfer of large-scale standing timber such as state-owned forests and collective forests,but the transaction volume is not large. Small forest farmers are more inclined to trade in non-trading centers. There are two reasons for this. On the one hand,as a new thing,the farmers' lack of understanding of the trading center reduces the possibility of choosing trading center. On the other hand,the cost of trading at the trading center may be higher for small forest farmers. Therefore,we should strengthen the propaganda of trading centers,simplify the procedures,and reduce the transaction costs so as to attract more small forest farmers to participate in trading center transactions. In the process of collecting data,the transaction cost of transactions in the trading center is not collected,so the data in this paper has certain limitations. The conclusion that the transaction price of the trading center is higher than that of the non-trading center is also temporary. To this end,if we want to study the impact of trading center on the transfer price more deeply,we must conduct research under the premise of considering the transaction cost,so that the results will be more reliable.
引文
[1]孔凡斌,廖文梅,郑云青.集体林权流转理论和政策研究述评与展望[J].农业经济问题,2011(11):100-105.
[2]谢煜,朱小静,温作民,等.集体林权制度改革后林权交易市场的运行机制研究[J].农村经济,2013(12):33-37.
[3]魏远竹,谢帮生,叶莉.农户选择林权交易中心的影响因素实证分析:以福建省尤溪、邵武、沙县、永安四县市为例[J].东南学术,2014(1):143-151.
[4]温作民,朱小静,谢煜,等.浙江省林权交易中心的完善与发展[J].林业经济评论,2011,1:53-59.
[5] MUNN I A,RUCKER R R. An economic analysis of the difference between bid prices on forest service and private timber sales[J]. Forest Science,1995,41(4):823-840.
[6] KLEPACKA A M,SIRY J P,BETTINGER P. Stumpage prices:A review of influential factors[J]. International Forestry Review. 2017,19(2):158-169.
[7] BROWN R N,KILGORE M A,COGGINS J S,et al. The impact of timber-sale tract,policy,and administrative characteristics on state stumpage prices:An econometric analysis[J]. Forest Policy and Economics,2012,21:71-80.
[8]刘园园,谢煜,张浩,等.林权交易市场中交易行为的博弈分析[J].林业经济问题,2012,32(5):433-439.
[9]魏远竹,谢帮生,陈建敏.福建省林权交易主要方式比较分析:基于典型县市的调查[J].林业经济问题,2011,31(4):304-309.
[10]谢煜,朱小静,温作民,等.为什么小规模林农没有选择交易中心内交易:来自浙江的实证研究[J].农林经济管理学报,2016,15(3):271-279.
[11]李兰英,周子贵,郑文彪,等.林权流转价格及其影响因素的实证研究:基于浙江省342个样本的分析[J].林业经济问题,2015,35(5):385-389.
[12]贺超,张璐,李杨,等.林权流转价格形成机制及其影响因素研究:基于辽宁、福建、江西等七省农户调查数据分析[J].价格理论与实践,2017(10):76-79.
[13]刘培凯,李兰英,童红卫,等.浙江省龙泉市活立木流转价格影响因素[J].贵州农业科学,2016,44(6):184-187.
[14]中国农业百科全书编辑部.中国农业百科全书:林业卷(上)[M].北京:农业出版社,1989:205-206.
[15] ROSENBAUM P R,RUBIN D B. Constructing a control froup using multivariate matched sampling methods that incorporate the propensity score[J]. American Statistician,1985,39(1):33-38.
[2]谢煜,朱小静,温作民,等.集体林权制度改革后林权交易市场的运行机制研究[J].农村经济,2013(12):33-37.
[3]魏远竹,谢帮生,叶莉.农户选择林权交易中心的影响因素实证分析:以福建省尤溪、邵武、沙县、永安四县市为例[J].东南学术,2014(1):143-151.
[4]温作民,朱小静,谢煜,等.浙江省林权交易中心的完善与发展[J].林业经济评论,2011,1:53-59.
[5] MUNN I A,RUCKER R R. An economic analysis of the difference between bid prices on forest service and private timber sales[J]. Forest Science,1995,41(4):823-840.
[6] KLEPACKA A M,SIRY J P,BETTINGER P. Stumpage prices:A review of influential factors[J]. International Forestry Review. 2017,19(2):158-169.
[7] BROWN R N,KILGORE M A,COGGINS J S,et al. The impact of timber-sale tract,policy,and administrative characteristics on state stumpage prices:An econometric analysis[J]. Forest Policy and Economics,2012,21:71-80.
[8]刘园园,谢煜,张浩,等.林权交易市场中交易行为的博弈分析[J].林业经济问题,2012,32(5):433-439.
[9]魏远竹,谢帮生,陈建敏.福建省林权交易主要方式比较分析:基于典型县市的调查[J].林业经济问题,2011,31(4):304-309.
[10]谢煜,朱小静,温作民,等.为什么小规模林农没有选择交易中心内交易:来自浙江的实证研究[J].农林经济管理学报,2016,15(3):271-279.
[11]李兰英,周子贵,郑文彪,等.林权流转价格及其影响因素的实证研究:基于浙江省342个样本的分析[J].林业经济问题,2015,35(5):385-389.
[12]贺超,张璐,李杨,等.林权流转价格形成机制及其影响因素研究:基于辽宁、福建、江西等七省农户调查数据分析[J].价格理论与实践,2017(10):76-79.
[13]刘培凯,李兰英,童红卫,等.浙江省龙泉市活立木流转价格影响因素[J].贵州农业科学,2016,44(6):184-187.
[14]中国农业百科全书编辑部.中国农业百科全书:林业卷(上)[M].北京:农业出版社,1989:205-206.
[15] ROSENBAUM P R,RUBIN D B. Constructing a control froup using multivariate matched sampling methods that incorporate the propensity score[J]. American Statistician,1985,39(1):33-38.